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  • Almost two years ago,

    大約兩年前,

  • I was driving in my car in Germany,

    我在德國開車時,

  • and I turned on the radio.

    打開收音機,

  • Europe at the time was in the middle

    歐洲當時

  • of the Euro crisis,

    處於歐債,

  • and all the headlines were about European countries

    所有的頭版都是

  • getting downgraded by rating agencies

    歐洲國家又被

  • in the United States.

    美國評級機構降級的消息。

  • I listened and thought to myself,

    那時我不禁自問:

  • "What are these rating agencies,

    「這些評級機構到底是什麼?

  • and why is everybody so upset about their work?"

    為何大家對它們的評價這麼在意?」

  • Well, if you were sitting

    若那天你是

  • next to me in the car that day

    坐在我旁邊,

  • and would have told me that I would devote

    然後告訴我,

  • the next years to trying to reform them,

    我未來幾年會試著 去改變這些機構,

  • obviously I would have called you crazy.

    我會毫不猶豫地認定你瘋了。

  • But guess what's really crazy:

    但還有更瘋的:

  • the way these rating agencies are run.

    這些評級機構運作的方式。

  • And I would like to explain to you

    我想跟您解釋,

  • not only why it's time to change this,

    為何現在是做出改變的時刻,

  • but also how we can do it.

    同時也會告訴你如何做出改變。

  • So let me tell you a little bit

    讓我來告訴你,

  • about what rating agencies really do.

    評級機構到底是做什麼的。

  • As you would read a car magazine

    就像您會先閱讀汽車雜誌,

  • before purchasing a new car

    再決定要買哪款新車。

  • or taking a look at a product review

    或是看完產品的評價,

  • before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,

    再決定要買哪種平板電腦或手機。

  • investors are reading ratings

    投資者也會先看評價,

  • before they decide in which kind of product

    再決定把他們的金錢

  • they are investing their money.

    投資給某種金融產品。

  • A rating can range from a so-called AAA,

    評價制度從所謂的「AAA」,

  • which means it's a top-performing product,

    意味著表現超級亮眼的產品,

  • and it can go down to the level

    降到十分低的評價,

  • of the so-called BBB-,

    稱做「BBB-」,

  • which means it's a fairly risky investment.

    意味著還蠻有風險的投資。

  • Rating agencies are rating companies.

    評級機構不只評級

  • They are rating banks.

    公司、銀行,

  • They are rating even financial products

    還對金融產品評級,

  • like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.

    比如臭名昭著的不動產抵押債券。

  • But they can also rate countries,

    連國家也能納入評價,

  • and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,

    這些評價有稱為「主權評價」。

  • and I would like to focus in particular

    今天我就來重點談談

  • on these sovereign ratings.

    這些主權評價。

  • And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,

    我看的出,

  • you're thinking,

    在場一定有人納悶著,

  • so why should I really care about this, right?

    為何我會對這些評價這麼在意?

  • Be honest.

    說真心話。

  • Well, ratings affect you.

    這些評價會影響你,

  • They affect all of us.

    也會影響我們所有人。

  • If a rating agency rates a country,

    當評級機構評價一個國家時,

  • it basically assesses and evaluates

    它基本上就是評估

  • a country's debt

    這個國家的債務狀況,

  • and the ability and willingness of a country

    以及這個國家

  • to repay its debt.

    還債的能力和意願。

  • So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,

    所以,若評級機構降低一國的評級,

  • the country has to pay more

    那國家就必須在國際市場上

  • in order to borrow money

    付出更多,

  • on the international markets.

    才能夠借錢。

  • So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,

    所以作為公民及納稅人,你會受影響。

  • because you and your fellow countrymen

    因為你和其它公民

  • have to pony up more in order to borrow.

    必須接受更高的 貨款利息才能借款。

  • But what if a country can't afford to pay more

    若一個國家因為成本過於高昂

  • because it's maybe too expensive?

    而負擔不起怎麼辦?

  • Well, then the country has less available

    這樣一來,國家就無法 提供別的服務,

  • for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.

    如道路、學校、醫療。

  • And this is the reason why you should care,

    這就是為什麼你該了解此議題,

  • because sovereign ratings affect everyone.

    因為主權評價能夠影響每個人。

  • And that is the reason why I believe

    這就是為什麼我相信,

  • they should be defined as public goods.

    它們該定義為公共財產。

  • They should be transparent, accessible,

    它們應該透眀,易取,

  • and available to everyone at no cost.

    而且免費提供給大眾。

  • But here's the situation:

    但情況來了:

  • the rating agency market is dominated

    評級機構的市場是由

  • by three players and three players only --

    三大主要的角色壟斷的 --

  • Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --

    普爾、穆迪、惠譽。

  • and we know whenever there is a market concentration,

    眾所皆知,當市場集中時,

  • there is really no competition.

    競爭就不復存在。

  • There is no incentive to improve

    改善品質的激勵

  • the quality of your product.

    就會消失殆盡。

  • And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,

    面對現實吧,評級機構

  • putting the global economy on the brink,

    好幾次把全球經濟推向邊緣。

  • and yet they have to change the way they operate.

    所以其運作方式有待改善。

  • The second point,

    第二點就是,

  • would you really buy a car

    你購買汽車時,會單憑

  • just based on the advice of the dealer?

    經銷商給的建議做決定嗎?

  • Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.

    肯定不會嘛! 因為這樣不負責任嘛!

  • But that's actually what's going on

    但實際上,這種運作模式

  • in the rating agency sector every single day.

    日復一日地出現在評級領域裡。

  • The customers of these rating agencies,

    這三大評級機構的顧客們,

  • like countries or companies,

    像是國家或者公司,

  • they are paying for their own ratings,

    他們付費獲得自己的評級,

  • and obviously this is creating

    這樣一來無庸置疑地

  • a conflict of interest.

    產生了利益衝突。

  • The third point is,

    第三點就是,

  • the rating agencies are not really telling us

    這些評級機構從未讓我們知道

  • how they are coming up with their ratings,

    他們的評級從何而來。

  • but in this day and age,

    但是在當下,

  • you can't even sell a candy bar

    連推銷一個糖果

  • without listing everything that's inside.

    都得一一列出裡面的成分。

  • But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,

    然而,評級是經濟構成的重要元素,

  • we really do not know

    我們卻無從得知

  • what all the different ingredients are.

    裡面的任何一樣細節。

  • We are allowing the rating agencies

    我們就這樣讓這些評級機構

  • to be intransparent about their work,

    以不透明的運作方式做出評級,

  • and we need to change this.

    所以我們必須改變現況。

  • I think there is no doubt that the sector

    我想這是一塊

  • needs a complete overhaul,

    亟需全面檢查的區域。

  • not just a trimming at the margins.

    而不僅僅做些不痛不癢的改變,

  • I think it's time for a bold move.

    我認為該是大膽踏出一大步的時候了,

  • I think it's time to upgrade the system.

    是系統升級的時候了。

  • And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation

    這就是為什麼我們「貝塔斯曼基金會」,

  • have invested a lot of time and effort

    投入了大量的時間和精力,

  • thinking about an alternative for the sector.

    為人們提供另一項選擇。

  • And we have developed the first model

    我們已開發出第一個模式,

  • for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,

    是個非營利的主權評價機構,

  • and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.

    簡稱 INCRA。

  • INCRA would make a difference

    INCRA 會改善

  • to the current system

    現有的系統。

  • by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.

    通過將非營利的評級機構加入戰局,

  • It would be based on a nonprofit model

    它將建立在非營利的模式上,

  • that would be based on a sustainable endowment.

    且會有大量的資金作為後盾。

  • The endowment would create income

    這些資金會創造收入,

  • that would allow us to run the operation,

    讓營運更順暢,

  • to run the rating agency,

    評級機構也會因此受惠。

  • and it would also allow us

    這也讓我們有機會

  • to make our ratings publicly available.

    公開評級的方式。

  • But this is not enough to make a difference, right?

    但這麼做還不足以改變現況,對吧?

  • INCRA would also be based on

    INCRA 也是建立在

  • a very, very clear governance structure

    十分透明的治理結構基礎上,

  • that would avoid any conflict of interest,

    這樣就能避開利益相突,

  • and it would include many stakeholders from society.

    同時吸納許多民間的財產保管人。

  • INCRA would not only be a European

    INCRA 不僅僅是歐洲的、

  • or an American rating agency,

    或者美國的評級機構,

  • it would be a truly international one,

    它會是全球化的評級機構。

  • in which, in particular, the emerging economies

    這樣子,新興經濟才能獲取

  • would have an equal interest, voice and representation.

    平等的利益、話語權和代表權。

  • The second big difference that INCRA would make is

    INCRA 可做出的第二點轉變就是:

  • that would it base its sovereign risk assessment

    它的主權評價會採取

  • on a broader set of indicators.

    更加廣泛的指標做評估。

  • Think about it that way.

    這樣想好了,

  • If we conduct a sovereign rating,

    若由我們進行主權評價,

  • we basically take a look at

    我們基本上會觀察

  • the economic soil of a country,

    一個國家的經濟基本面,

  • its macroeconomic fundamentals.

    它的宏觀經濟基本指標。

  • But we also have to ask the question,

    但我們得先自問:

  • who is cultivating the economic soil

    是誰在蓄養國家的經濟基礎?

  • of a country, right?

    對吧?

  • Well, a country has many gardeners,

    一個國家有許多給經濟施肥的人,

  • and one of them is the government,

    其中之一就是政府。

  • so we have to ask the question,

    下一個問題就是:

  • how is a country governed?

    一個國家是如何管理的?

  • How is it managed?

    又是如何運作的?

  • And this is the reason why we have developed

    這就是為什麼我們要開發

  • what we call forward-looking indicators.

    前膽性的指標。

  • These are indicators that give you

    這些指標能夠

  • a much better read about

    更好地解讀

  • the socioeconomic development of a country.

    一個國家的社會經濟發展。

  • I hope you would agree it's important for you to know

    我希望你會認同接下來的看法:

  • if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.

    若你的政府願意 投資再生能源和教育,

  • It's important for you to know

    你就需要去確認,

  • if the government of your country

    你國家的政府

  • is able to manage a crisis,

    是否有能力解決危機。

  • if the government is finally able to implement

    你的政府是否最終

  • the reforms that it's promised.

    實施了其承諾的改善。

  • For example, if INCRA would rate

    比方說,如果 INCRA

  • South Africa right now,

    目前在評價南非,

  • of course we would take a very, very close look

    我們當然會很密切地審視

  • at the youth unemployment of the country,

    這國家年輕人的失業率,

  • the highest in the world.

    南非的數據是全球最高的。

  • If over 70 percent of a country's population

    若這個國家 35 歲以下的人口中,

  • under the age of 35 is unemployed,

    超過 70% 都失業了,

  • of course this has a huge impact on the economy

    這對經濟的影響當然很大。

  • today and even more so in the future.

    現況都這麼糟了,以後的就更別提了。

  • Well, our friends at Moody's,

    再來看看

  • Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us

    普爾、穆迪、惠譽會說:

  • we would take this into account as well.

    這些都有納入評價。

  • But guess what? We do not know

    但到底有沒有啊? 我們也不知道

  • exactly how they will take this into account.

    究竟他們如何將其納入評價的。

  • And this leads me to the third big difference

    這帶我們來到第 3 個

  • that INCRA would make.

    INCRA 可以做的轉變。

  • INCRA would not only release its ratings

    那就是 INCRA 不只會提供其評價,

  • but it would also release its indicators

    也會顯示其指標

  • and methodology.

    和方法。

  • So in contrast to the current system,

    所以與當今的系統相比,

  • INCRA would be fully transparent.

    INCRA 的評價方式較為透眀。

  • So in a nutshell,

    長話短說,

  • INCRA would offer an alternative

    INCRA 會提供另一項選擇,

  • to the current system of the big three rating agencies

    除了當今的 3 大評級機構以外,

  • by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix

    再加入一個全新的、非營利的評價機構。

  • that would increase the competition,

    這樣可以增加競爭,

  • it would increase the transparency of the sector,

    為此區塊增加透明度,

  • and it would also increase the quality.

    以及提升品質。

  • I can tell that sovereign ratings

    我明白主權評級對你來說,

  • may still look to you like this very small piece

    可能只是複雜的全球金融系統裡

  • of this very complex global financial world,

    渺小的一部分。

  • but I tell you it's a very important one,

    但我能跟你打包票說,

  • and a very important one to fix,

    這很重要,且極需解決。

  • because sovereign ratings affect all of us,

    因為主權評級會影響每一個人,

  • and they should be addressed and should be defined

    這問題應當解決,

  • as public goods.

    並且應當定義成公共財產。

  • And this is why we are testing our model right now,

    因此我們正在測試這一模式,

  • and why we are trying to find out if it can

    我們在嘗試組建一支

  • bring together a group of able and willing actors

    有意願和能力的隊伍,

  • to bring INCRA to life.

    得以讓 INCRA 發揮其作用。

  • I truly believe building up INCRA

    我堅信,建立 INCRA

  • is in everyone's interest,

    符合在座每一位的利益,

  • and that we have the unique opportunity right now

    現在我們有這難得的機會

  • to turn INCRA into a cornerstone

    打造 INCRA 為踏基石,

  • of a new, more inclusive financial system.

    讓金融系統換然一新,更有包容性。

  • Because for way too long,

    因為我們已經讓

  • we have left the big financial players on their own.

    這些金融巨頭獨霸太久了,

  • It's time to give them some company.

    該是介入的時候了。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

Almost two years ago,

大約兩年前,

字幕與單字

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 評級 評價 主權 國家 經濟

TED】安奈特-何瑟。3個有權創造或破壞經濟的機構(Annette Heuser:The 3 agency with the power to make or break economies)。 (【TED】Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies (Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies))

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    CUChou 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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