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  • I'm doing a very short

  • introduction for Peter Thiel whom

  • you already saw on stage already

  • but a little bit on the background

  • meaning I think most of the facts

  • are about Peter are very

  • well known I thought myself if I

  • if I would have one

  • sentence to

  • introduce Peter just

  • one sentence then I would

  • say I proudly welcome

  • the guy who

  • revolutionised my personal

  • dating life by financing

  • Facebook itís an amazing tool for

  • dating if you haven't realised

  • that but as I have a little

  • bit more time some more maybe

  • more important facts about

  • Peter are I think I can

  • say heís a legendary investor

  • entrepreneur and as you

  • also heard he is a very good

  • philanthropist he founded

  • Pay Pal in

  • one998 and

  • sold it already 4 years

  • later in 2002

  • to eBay for some

  • billion US dollars so

  • pretty successful he then

  • founded Palantir

  • you will hear the name Iím

  • pretty sure much more often in the

  • next years 2004

  • which is a ground breaking

  • platform technology

  • to analyse

  • big data and

  • he was as I already said

  • the first yeah the first investor in

  • Facebook besides that you think okay he

  • might be occupied a lot and

  • have not a lot of time no he founded

  • or started 2 other

  • funds Mithrill more for

  • growth investments and the

  • Founders Fund for internet

  • investments and he also

  • started a very successful hedge fund

  • Clarium Capital so very busy

  • business life aside of

  • that as you heard

  • heís very active in

  • philanthropy and also

  • politically very active

  • why I really think heís a

  • great great guest of DLD

  • is because maybe bottom line

  • he's a great thinker heís one of

  • the smartest guysve ever met

  • heís original yeah heís not

  • just telling you what you have heard

  • in one0 other speeches maybe

  • before heís out of the box heís maybe

  • controversial politically

  • whatever so it's not

  • mainstream what heís saying

  • but I think this is the main

  • reason why I will enjoy his speech

  • enjoy thank you very much Christian

  • I wanted to just see where the

  • presentation here is I wanted to

  • talk a little bit today about

  • about sort of technology

  • globalisation and the question

  • of how how we

  • actually sort of make the

  • 2onest century a much

  • better sense we sort of want to make it sort of share

  • a few broad thoughts on this question

  • and then leave as much time as possible for

  • some questions and answers and

  • make it as interactive as possible now

  • letís see I think when one when one

  • looks at the at the 2onest

  • century there are there are

  • probably 2 major

  • themes that one has going on

  • the globalisation

  • and the technology and what I

  • want to underscore is that I think these

  • are 2 very different

  • kinds of things in a sense

  • of globalisation

  • you can think of is

  • horizontal or

  • extensive growth and it

  • involves copying things

  • that work and I think of

  • technology as

  • vertical or intensive

  • growth and it involves

  • doing new things and in

  • some sense we need to do some of both

  • in the in the 2onest century

  • there's a thereís a sense in

  • which we're in a world that's

  • very focused on

  • globalisation but I think much less

  • focused on a on

  • technology and in some ways this is already

  • reflected in in the

  • division of the world between

  • developing and developed

  • worlds the developing countries

  • are those countries that will somehow

  • converge with the developed world

  • through globalisation and so a

  • place like China has a very

  • straightforward plan for the

  • next 20 years and it is basically

  • to copy things that have worked in

  • the developed world there are things China

  • can copy and improve it may skip some steps so maybe you

  • don't need to build out a full land based phone

  • system you go straight to

  • mobile phones thereís some

  • things you can do better but for the most

  • part itís very very

  • straightforward but for the

  • developed countries the

  • question of how we actually

  • have progress I think is a very

  • different one and I think we

  • the question of how the

  • developed world gets better is one that is

  • not very often asked in these in

  • these forums and itís one that I want to at

  • least try to pose today and

  • I think that the developed

  • developing world dichotomy

  • while it's on the one

  • hand very pro

  • globalisation believes in a

  • convergence theory of

  • globalisation it is also

  • implicitly somewhat

  • sceptical of technology

  • does not believe that

  • technology will so radically

  • transform the world and in some

  • ways it has a somewhat

  • defeatist pessimistic attitude

  • where the developed world is

  • the part of the world where nothing new is going

  • to happen and that is why sort of I picked this

  • somewhat strange sounding title of

  • developing the developed world

  • because it's something I think we don't

  • ask enough about how to make that

  • happen you know very thematically

  • if we think about the

  • developed world and how

  • progress and technology can

  • happen I want to suggest that there are

  • sort of 4 basic

  • scenarios and I think these are the 4

  • basic things that can happen

  • with technological progress

  • in the 21st century the

  • first one is that it

  • continues but at a

  • decelerating rate

  • thereís some sort of we we make some

  • progress incrementally but it

  • gradually slows down we

  • eventually run out of new

  • ideas the rest of the world

  • catches up which is

  • globalisation but you have sort of this

  • decelerating decelerating arc

  • sort of the even more

  • pessimistic one is that it is

  • just cyclical you know

  • civilisations go in cycles they

  • rise they fall and sometimes the

  • knowledge gets lost this is what happened in the

  • classical world and maybe this

  • happens again at some point in the

  • modern world you have an even more

  • pessimistic one is that somehow

  • technology or

  • science are a giant trap that

  • humanity has created for

  • itself and that you will have

  • some sort of runaway

  • catastrophe and so

  • it looks like there's tremendous

  • progress but maybe it hits a

  • wall and the whole system

  • collapses at one point and then

  • finally there is the most

  • optimistic one which is that

  • things continue to

  • accelerate in the decades

  • and the century ahead I believe these

  • are actually the only 4

  • possibilities that exist

  • it's deceleration

  • cyclicality collapse

  • or acceleration and I believe

  • that I would defy anyone to

  • draw a graph thatís different

  • from one of those 4 and since

  • you know we don't want collapse

  • we don't want cyclicality

  • even

  • deceleration doesnít

  • sound that great this

  • is the one we have to actually

  • work for and if you don't have

  • acceleration by negative

  • implication you have one of

  • the other 3 so one of the questions

  • is how do we you know

  • how well are we doing

  • on technological

  • acceleration which I think is the

  • key for the developed

  • world to progress in the decades

  • ahead and I think it is sort of a very

  • very mixed story

  • so you know have we been

  • continuing to accelerate

  • in in the

  • recent decades and the thing I

  • want to basically suggest as my my

  • core thesis is that there

  • has been continued

  • acceleration in computer and

  • all the computer-related

  • technologies but there has been

  • you know somewhat less progress in many

  • other areas and so if you

  • want to sort of have a you

  • know have a sort of an

  • example of a place where

  • things are not quite have not

  • quite lived up to the

  • expectations of

  • 1967 you can look

  • at Star Trek The Final

  • Frontier to explore new planets

  • new star systems new

  • civilisations to boldly

  • go where no one has

  • gone before and that has sort

  • of devolved into a somewhat

  • flabbier

  • person with a bad toupee

  • selling selling cheap

  • trips to the Caribbean and

  • so and so while

  • while we don't want to and you know of

  • course if we had to go down the

  • list there are sort of many other areas where

  • progress has fallen short of what

  • people had expected 40

  • or 50 years ago the Nixon