Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?

你覺得哪個球隊會贏得超級杯？

Who wore it better on the red carpet?

誰在紅地毯上誰穿得最靚？

Who are you going to vote for for mayor?

你想投給哪位市長？

Public opinion polls are everywhere.

到處都是民意調查

Important decision makers in American government

美國政府的重要決策者

have long relied on public opinion polls

長期以來，在選舉 和重要的立法上

throughout elections and important legislation.

依靠民意調查 來瞭解民眾想法

The problem is public opinion isn't easy to track

問題是，公眾意見不容易調查

and, often times, isn't even right.

尤有甚者 民調的結果往往不準確

In 1948, the Chicago Daily Tribune ran a now famous headline:

在 1948 年，《芝加哥每日論壇報 》 拋出了一個在今天來說相當著名的標題：

"Dewey Defeats Truman,"

「杜威擊敗了杜魯門」

they cried in big, bold, black and white letters.

他們以又大、又粗 又黑、又白的字體呈現

The problem is

問題是，當時

that Dewey hadn't defeated Truman.

杜威還沒打敗杜魯門

The Tribune had relied on polls to come to their conclusion.

《論壇報》是根據民意調查 而得出自己的結論的

Whoops!

囧！

This happens all the time because public opinion polls

這種情況太常發生了 因為民意調查

are either inaccurate or misleading.

要嘛不是不準確 不然就是深具誤導性

So, why are they wrong?

那麼，為什麼它們會錯呢？

And why do we keep using them?

為什麼我們還一直使用它們？

First, let's start with an important term:

首先，讓我們開始 理解一個重要術語：

sample.

樣本

A sample is the group of people

一個樣本是指

that respond to questions during a public opinion poll.

一群在民意測驗中 回答問題的受訪者

A poll's quality rests largely on its sample,

一項民意調查的品質 在很大程度上取決於其樣本

and a sample can be bad in a few key ways.

一個糟糕的樣本有可能是

It can be too small,

人數太少

too narrow,

族群狹隘

or the poll itself can be too difficult.

又或民調裡的問題太難

Polls that are too small are bad for obvious reasons.

人數太少不好的原因很明顯

And while you can't possibly ask

雖然你不大可能詢問

every single person in America for their opinion,

美國所有人的意見

the more people you ask,

但如果你問的人愈多

the more accurate your prediction.

你所得到的預測會更準確

Polls that are too narrow,

如果你只詢問

that only ask a certain type of person a question,

某些類型的人一個問題

are bad, too.

那也不太好

Consider a poll about whether or not

試想一個關於

the potato is the best vegetable in America.

馬鈴薯是否是 美國的最佳蔬菜的投票

If you only asked people in Idaho,

如果你只問愛達荷州人的話

where the state food is the potato,

在那裡馬鈴薯是 該州的主要食物

chances are that you would get a much different answer

那麼很有可能地 你在新墨西哥州

than if you asked people in the state of New Mexico,

所得到的答案會存在很大的差距

where the state vegetable is beans.

該州的主要蔬菜是豆類

Getting the right kind of diversity in your sample

在你的樣本中保有適當的多樣性

means making sure that your sample has a range

意謂著，你在樣本中得確保一系列的

of ages,

年齡

races,

種族

genders,

性別

and geographic regions,

地理區域

just to name a few.

的不同類別

Finally, polls that are too hard can't tell you much either.

最後，太困難的民意測驗 也無法提供任何有益的資訊

If you're asking people for their opinions on things

如果你詢問人們一些有關

about which they have no prior knowledge,

他們所不熟悉的知識的問題

the results will be pointless.

結果將會是毫無意義的

You're better off shaking a Magic 8 ball.

與其這樣，試試卜卦求籤 甚至還有可能比較準

It's not just the people you're asking

這不僅是因為，你所問的人

that can cause bias, though.

可能會導致偏見

The person doing the asking is part of the problem, too.

問問題的人也有可能 是導致偏差的部分原因

That's called interviewer bias.

這就叫訪視員偏差 (interviewer bias)

Interviewer bias is all about the effect

訪視員偏差 和所有那些影響著

that the person asking the questions

訪談者所問的問題

has on the sample.

與樣本有關

Humans generally don't like confrontation.

一般說來，人們不喜歡爭鋒相對

People worry that their answers may make them look bad.

人們擔心他們的回答 可能會讓他們看起來很糟

Therefore, we find that people tend to give

因此，我們發現人們傾向於

socially desirable responses,

提供符合社會理想的答案

not necessarily their honest opinions,

而這卻不一定是 他們的誠實意見

because they don't want to come across

因為他們不想

as heartless,

被視為無情的人

racist,

種族主義者

or bigoted.

或偏頗的人

And the way we word our questions matters too.

而我們提出問題的方式也很重要

When polls purposely sway the answers one way or the other,

當民意調查刻意誘導 某種類型的答案時

it's called a push poll

這就叫導向性民調 (push poll)

because it pushes people to answer a certain way.

因為它誘導人們 以某種方式回答問題

"Would you vote for candidate Smith?"

「你會投票給候選人史密斯嗎？」

is a perfectly normal question.

這是一個相當正常的問題

"Would you vote for candidate Smith

「如果你知道候選人史密斯搶劫老年人

if you knew that he robs senior citizens?"

你還會投票給他嗎？」

is a push poll.

這便是導向性民調

So, if polls are open

所以，既然民意調查

to all sorts of manipulation and inaccuracies,

存在著各種操縱 和不準確之處

why are they still so prevalent?

為什麼人們仍然大量使用它們呢？

Despite their flaws, public opinion polls provide us

儘管有其缺點 民意調查提供我們

with some sense of the thoughts and moods

某一群人在某種程度上的

of large groups of people.

想法和情緒

They offer politicians the chance to pass legislation

它們提供政治人物 某些機會去推動

they think a majority of Americans will support.

他們認為大多數美國人 可能會支持的法案

They help fashionistas on TV

它們在電視節目中 看起來很潮很吸睛

know which star wore the dress better on the red carpet.

它們知道哪個明星 在紅地毯上穿得時髦

Finally, they make us,

最後，民調使我們

the people who get polled,

那些被詢問意見的人們，依稀覺得

feel as though our voice has been heard.

自己的聲音已獲得採納

So, next time you get a phone call asking your opinion,

所以，下次你接到詢問你意見的電話

or if you see a poll online,

或者，如果你看到 一個線上民意調查的話

take some time to think about who is asking

花點時間想想，誰在問問題

and why they're asking.

以及，爲什麽他們要問

Then, take that poll, and its results,

接著，試著懷疑 那民調及其結果

with a grain of salt

試著將信將疑

or a potato.

別太把結果放在心上