Name: 川普考慮「結束」戰爭，並表示「其他國家」應守衛荷姆茲海峽！| DW新聞 (Trump mulls 'winding down' the war and says 'other nations' should guard Hormuz | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-21T17:04:27.000Z
Duration: 39 min

I'm Melissa Chan and we're here to give you the latest on the Iran war, where things stand three weeks into the conflict, heading into the fourth week.

我是 Melissa Chan，我們要為您帶來伊朗戰爭的最新消息，衝突進入第三週，即將邁入第四週的現況。

And we'll be speaking to two analysts plus our correspondent in Jerusalem.

我們也會訪問兩位分析師，以及我們在耶路撒冷的記者。

Now, I have my laptop with me to keep an eye on what those in the chat via YouTube or TikTok might be saying.

現在，我帶著我的筆記型電腦，隨時關注 YouTube 或 TikTok 聊天室裡大家在說什麼。

And I will grab any questions you might have, which I will pass on to those experts joining us.

我會收集各位可能有的問題，然後轉達給即將加入我們的專家們。

Thanks, Magic, I believe, and Ross Evans for joining the chat so far.

謝謝 Magic，我想還有 Ross Evans，感謝你們目前為止加入聊天室。

Post your questions and comments and we will forward them to our group of experts and our correspondent.

提出你們的問題和評論，我們會將它們轉發給我們的專家團隊和記者。

Now, a quick recap of where things stand.

好的，我們快速回顧一下目前的狀況。

US President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals over what he intends to do next, as he have so many times over the past few weeks.

美國總統唐納·川普對於他接下來的行動發出了互相矛盾的信號，就像過去幾週他許多次一樣。

So let's start with this sound bite, have a listen.

所以，我們就從這段聲音片段開始，一起聽聽看。

Well, look, we can have dialogue, but we don't.

嗯，你看，我們可以對話，但我們沒有。

You know, you don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side.

你知道，當你正在徹底摧毀對方時，你不會停火。

They don't have a navy, they don't have an air force, they don't have any equipment to, they don't have any spotters, they don't have anti aircraft, they don't have radar.

他們沒有海軍，沒有空軍，沒有任何裝備，沒有任何偵察兵，沒有防空武器，沒有雷達。

And their leaders have all been killed at every level.

而且他們各級的領導人都被殺了。

he also suggests things may be winding down, as you can see from this truth social media post.

從這則 Truth Social 的貼文可以看出，他也暗示事情可能正在落幕。

We're going to pull that up where he talks about, quote, winding down military efforts because he claims of the deep degradation of Iranian military capabilities.

我們會把他說 about, quote, winding down military efforts because he claims of the deep degradation of Iranian military capabilities.

And then he goes on to say, quote, the Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed as necessary by other nations who use it.

然後他接著說，引述，「荷姆茲海峽將必須由其他使用它的國家，在必要時進行守衛和巡邏。」

Now that might be news to these other nations.

這對其他國家來說，可能有點意外。

The American president seems to believe he can just walk away from the conflict if he wants to.

美國總統似乎認為，他想走就可以隨時退出這場衝突。

So without further ado, we're going to bring in Willem Alberich, who is a former NATO official and now a senior fellow with the Pacific Forum, which is a think tank based in Honolulu.

所以，我們就直接請到 Willem Alberich，他曾是 NATO 的官員，現在是太平洋論壇的資深研究員，太平洋論壇是一個總部位於檀香山的智庫。

And later, in a few minutes later, we will have Sarah Kermanian of the International Relations Department at the University of Sachsex.

然後稍後幾分鐘，我們會有來自薩塞克斯大學國際關係系的 Sarah Kermanian。

You've spoken to DW News quite a number of times over the past few weeks.

過去幾週，你已經接受 DW News 採訪過好幾次了。

What do you make of Trump's soundbite just now?

I think there's a real dichotomy within the US Government as to exactly what the war aims are in this conflict with Iran.

我認為美國政府內部對於在這次伊朗戰爭的衝突中，確切的戰爭目標存在真正的分歧。

Do they want complete regime change as in a government that's acceptable to the United States, or do they want to just degrade Iranians military capabilities, especially its missile capabilities?

他們想要的是徹底的政權更迭，像是建立一個美國能接受的政府，還是隻想削弱伊朗的軍事能力，特別是其飛彈能力？

Are we going to go after the nuclear highly rich uranium 440.9 kg of which is still unaccounted for.

我們要追擊核武高度濃縮鈾嗎？還有 440.9 公斤的鈾去向不明。

So I think the shifting war aims, plus the market pressure, the huge spike in oil prices which is going to drive inflation, which is going to raise the price of everything.

所以我認為，不斷轉變的戰爭目標，加上市場壓力，油價的巨大飆升將會帶動通膨，進而提高所有東西的價格。

Even though Trump has said we don't need running oil, it does mean that the oil prices are spiking and that will have effects.

即使川普說我們不需要石油，這也意味著油價正在飆升，這將會產生影響。

And I think Trump is incredibly sensitive to those sort of market shifts which, which could have a huge effect on midterm elections in the United States.

我認為川普對那種可能對美國期中選舉產生巨大影響的市場變動非常敏感。

Now William, I think one of the things, one of the reasons, if I can say so as a former correspondent who is based in the United States as well, is that there's a lot of infighting within the White House.

威廉，我認為其中一個原因，如果我身為一位曾派駐美國的記者可以這麼說的話，是白宮內部有很多內鬥。

So the President seems to be changing his mind in part because of that infighting.

所以總統似乎因為這些內鬥而改變心意。

Do we have a sense, for example, of where Vice President J.D.

我們能大概知道，像是副總統 J.D.

vance stands in relation to National Security Adviser and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and so on?

Vance 對於國家安全顧問兼國務卿 Marco Rubio 和國防部長 Pete Hegseth 等人的立場嗎？

Well, you know, you hate to psychoanalyze people from afar, but

嗯，你知道，遠距離去揣測別人是很難的，但

just based on their past positions, you would say that J.D.

光是看他們過去的立場，你會說 J.D.

vance was very much against further engagements in the Middle east and the so called forever Wars.

Vance 非常反對在中東進一步介入，以及所謂的永久戰爭。

On the other hand, Rubio has been much more of a classic Republican neocon, willing to take US Interests overseas and engage in conflicts where necessary.

另一方面，Rubio 比較像個傳統的共和黨新保守派，願意將美國利益推向海外，並在必要時介入衝突。

And then Hegseth just seems to like to blow stuff up.

It's really difficult to discern any sort of longer term strategy from that fella.

真的很難看出那傢伙有什麼長期的戰略。

But I would say that you're right that within the MAGA movement there is this very strong group fed by Trump's promises not to engage in forever wars, not to get mixed up in the Middle east versus those who really do want to use US power, want to build up so much US Power and wield that anywhere in the world, anytime we feel like it.

但我會說，你說得對，在 MAGA 陣營裡，有一群人深受川普不介入永久戰爭、不捲入中東事務的承諾影響，而另一群人則真的想運用美國的力量，想建立強大的美國力量，並隨時隨地在世界任何地方動用它。

And those two groups are really tearing each other apart.

I mean, you can see sort of the internecine warfare within the MAGA movement between those who support this war and those who wonder why in the world we're fighting it.

我覺得，你可以看到 MAGA 陣營裡，他們內部正在進行一場內鬥，有些人支持這場戰爭，有些人則質疑我們到底為什麼要打這場仗。

And I want to welcome others in the chat who are posting Green, Jerry and Dave, thank you very much.

另外，我也要歡迎在聊天室裡發言的 Green、Jerry 和 Dave，非常謝謝你們。

I'm going to keep asking William a few questions and then we'll look at your comments and questions that you provide now.

我會繼續問 William 一些問題，然後我們再看看你們現在提供的評論和問題。

William, meanwhile, in the last few hours, Iran says there has been a US Israeli attack on its Natanz uranium enrichment facility.

William，同時，在過去幾個小時內，伊朗表示美國和以色列襲擊了其納坦茲鈾濃縮設施。

Israel just in the last hour or so has said it was not aware of this attack.

以色列在過去一小時左右表示，他們並不知道這次襲擊。

Now, you're a nuclear non proliferation expert.

What does this latest attack mean and long term, are Iran's nuclear capabilities set back?

這次最新的襲擊意味著什麼？長期來看，伊朗的核能力是否會受到阻礙？

So Iran had the ability to enrich uranium at three sites.

所以伊朗有能力在三個地點濃縮鈾。

One was at a place called Fordeau and then two sites within Natanz, one on the surface and one deeply buried.

一個在一個叫做 Fordeau 的地方，然後納坦茲有兩個地點，一個在地表，一個深埋。

We're pretty sure that those facilities have all been hit very, very hard and knocked out of operation.

我們很確定這些設施都受到了非常、非常嚴重的打擊，並且無法運作。

However, Iran was building a third facility at Natanz just to the southwest of the other two facilities.

然而，伊朗在納坦茲正在建造第三個設施，就在其他兩個設施的西南方。

And we saw work on tunnels before the June strikes last year, and

在去年的六月罷工之前，我們就看到了隧道工程，而且

we've seen some work happening in between June and this most recent outbreak of conflict.

在六月到最近這次衝突爆發之間，我們也看到了一些工程。

So it may be that they're striking that facility, but

所以他們可能是在打擊那個設施，但是

I am surprised because I don't think there's really any capabilities there.

我感到驚訝，因為我不認為那裡真的有什麼能力。

There may be some storage for centrifuges in some of the tunnel complexes, but

在一些隧道建築群裡可能有一些濃縮機的儲存，但是

really the prize is, as I mentioned before, the highly enriched uranium, which we believe is stored underground at Esfahan and may have been buried in the rubble there.

真正有價值的，就像我之前提到的，是高濃縮鈾，我們相信它儲存在伊斯法罕的地下，並且可能被埋在那裡的瓦礫中。

Now, it may be that some of the uranium is still at Natanz or Fordeau and maybe they're trying to destroy that in place rather than to try to risk a ground operation to go in and seize the material.

現在，也許有些鈾還在納坦茲或福爾多，他們可能想就地摧毀它，而不是冒險進行地面行動去奪取這些材料。

So there is a substantial amount of 60% enriched Highlander uranium in gaseous form in these big metal containers in Iran.

所以伊朗有大量的60%濃縮的高地鈾，以氣體形式儲存在這些大型金屬容器裡。

And getting them accounting for them or destroying them will be a key war aim.

要清點或摧毀它們將是戰爭的主要目標。

Trump may be wanting to finish that so he can declare some sort of victory.

川普可能想完成這件事，這樣他就可以宣稱某種形式的勝利。

William, just for those who might not understand, including myself, frankly, the science behind this, to what extent can you bomb to the point of trying to get rid of this uranium?

William，對那些可能不明白的人，包括我自己在內，坦白說，這背後的科學是什麼，你可以在多大程度上轟炸以試圖擺脫這些鈾？

我的意思是，那不是很危險嗎？

Could that sense set off a chain reaction?

I think there's a lot of questions around the safety of that strategy.

我認為這個策略的安全性有很多疑問。

So these are just basically large metal tanks that contain uranium hexafluoride gas that has been enriched.

所以這些基本上就是裝有已濃縮的六氟化鈾氣體的金屬桶。

You would then have to take that gas and turn it into a solid form and turn that solid form into metal so that you could make a metal pit that would be the center of a bomb.

你必須把那些氣體變成固體，再把固體變成金屬，這樣你才能做出一個金屬芯，作為炸彈的中心。

And you'd need for highly uranium, somewhere around 20, 25 kilograms of 90% wretched uranium.

而你需要的濃縮鈾，大約需要 20 到 25 公斤，90% 的濃縮鈾。

It is close to bomb making quality, but it is not in of itself dangerous.

它已經接近炸彈等級了，但它本身並不危險。

I mean, if one of these tanks exploded in the room here, I'd be dead, but

我的意思是，如果其中一個桶在這裡爆炸，我會死，但是

如果我離這裡一個街區遠，我就沒事了。

The amount of potential radiation release from destroying these metal containers filled with uranium gas is very low.

摧毀這些裝有鈾氣體的金屬容器所釋放的潛在輻射量非常低。

Again, it's toxic to breathe in, but it's not going to have huge radiation effects.

再次強調，吸入這些東西是有毒的，但不會有巨大的輻射影響。

So uranium emits alpha particles which can be stopped by clothing.

所以鈾會釋放阿爾法粒子，這些粒子可以被衣物擋住。

This is more like a temporary gaseous release that would be dangerous for people on site, but

這比較像暫時性的氣體釋放，對現場的人來說會很危險，但

So there's no real danger of any kind of fissile explosion or any kind of radiation release that you would be able to detect from far off site.

所以沒有真正的核分裂爆炸或任何遠距離可偵測到的輻射釋放的危險。

So absent boots on the ground, this is the best alternative as a strategy.

所以在沒有地面部隊的情況下，這是最好的替代策略。

It's rough because even from the air, you're still going to have a very tough time of knowing whether you've destroyed all of these containers because, you know, we're talking about dozens and dozens of these containers.

這很困難，因為即使從空中，你也很難知道你是否摧毀了所有這些容器，因為，你知道，我們說的是數十個甚至數十個這樣的容器。

And I would, I would be loathe to try to be able to tell whether or not we had hit them, considering they're buried probably under tons of dirt and concrete right now.

而且我，我會很不願意去判斷我們有沒有擊中它們，考慮到它們現在可能埋在數噸的泥土和混凝土下面。

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川普考慮「結束」戰爭，並表示「其他國家」應守衛荷姆茲海峽！| DW新聞 (Trump mulls 'winding down' the war and says 'other nations' should guard Hormuz | DW News)

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