Name: 川普總統是否已失控伊朗戰局？| BBC Newscast (Has President Trump lost control of the war in Iran? | BBC Newscast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-20T16:42:07.000Z
Duration: 28 min 51 s

And it's Chris in the newscast studio, Faisal, also in the newscast studio.

我是新聞播報室的 Chris，Faisal，也在新聞播報室。

And please welcome back Jane Corbyn from Panorama.

How was it making a half hour documentary program, which is like a serious bit of work, but

製作一個半小時的 documentary program 感覺怎麼樣？這可是很嚴肅的工作，

the story's just unfolding around you and of course, your Panorama about the Iran war is on iplayer right now.

但故事就在你眼前展開，當然，你關於伊朗戰爭的 Panorama 現在可以在 iplayer 上收看。

Well, we waited a bit before we started filming for that very reason, because we knew if we started immediately in three days time, it would be outdated.

嗯，我們就是因為這個原因，等了一陣子才開始拍攝，因為我們知道如果馬上開始，三天後就會過時了。

我覺得我們差不多抓到時機了。

It escalated enormously, obviously, in that first week and.

顯然，在第一週，情況就急劇惡化了，而且。

Yeah, well, I'm glad that you've found it useful and interesting and I hope people will watch it on iplayer.

是啊，很高興你覺得它有用又有趣，希望大家會在 iplayer 上收看。

It's extraordinary to put something like that together in a week in which so much happens, obviously in Israel, in Iran, of course, most of all in America and in all the Gulf nations.

在這麼多事情發生的這一週，把節目做出來真是太不簡單了，顯然是以色列、伊朗，當然還有美國，以及所有波斯灣國家。

And trying to pack it into a half hour program isn't that easy.

而且要把這些濃縮成一個半小時的節目並不容易。

Well, let's see how we can do on this episode of Newscast.

好，我們就來看看這個 Newscast 節目這次會怎麼樣。

Faisal, as we're recording on Thursday evening, it feels today in the uk, or maybe actually around the world, this felt like the day that the kind of the consequences of the war came home to roost, really.

Faisal，我們現在是週四晚上錄音，感覺今天在英國，或者說全世界，今天像是戰爭的後果真正顯現的一天，真的。

We did have a big spike right at the beginning on the first day, but

第一天我們確實有一個很大的飆升，但是

I think what we got overnight was the sense of escalation.

我認為我們隔夜收到的感覺是升級。

Markets had been sort of treading water holding pattern.

市場之前一直在盤整，處於觀望狀態。

It was almost like a 50, 50 split between.

This is all going to go away relatively quickly.

By that, I mean within weeks, and this is going to be the worst case scenario.

我的意思是幾週內，這將是個最壞的情況。

So we saw this exchange of fire with some of the most important energy facilities in the world.

所以我們看到世界上一些最重要的能源設施發生了交火。

And it was pretty clear that with those on fire, that this was the escalation that was much feared.

而很明顯，在那些設施著火後，這就是大家非常擔心的升級。

And you're suddenly like, well, the probability of this worst case scenario is now much, much higher.

然後你突然覺得，嗯，這個最壞情況發生的機率現在高很多、很多。

And so we saw an impact on markets, you know, extraordinary overnight impact in markets with oil prices and gas prices.

所以我們看到了對市場的影響，你知道，市場上出現了非比尋常的隔夜影響，油價和天然氣價格。

And Jane, just to be clear, the reason this was so important is, and

Jane，為了釐清，這之所以這麼重要，原因在於，而且

the events that led up to all of this turmoil on the markets was Israel striking the natural gas field in the Persian Gulf, that half of which is in Iranian territory, and

導致市場上所有這些動盪的事件，是以色列攻擊波斯灣的天然氣田，其中一半位於伊朗領土，

then Iran retaliating by hitting Qatar, which is basically the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas.

然後伊朗透過攻擊卡達進行報復，而卡達基本上是全球最大的液化天然氣生產國。

Yeah, that oil field straddles under the Gulf and south Pas.

是的，那個油田橫跨海灣和南帕斯。

Iran retaliated by bombing the gas facilities in Qatar.

伊朗則透過轟炸卡達的能源設施進行報復。

And, you know, Qatar is a really a real linchpin in the Gulf and in what's happened in this war because it's kind of been an intermediary between all sides in the past.

而且，你知道，卡達在海灣以及這次戰爭中確實扮演著關鍵角色，因為它過去一直是各方之間的調解者。

The biggest American air base in the Gulf.

海灣地區最大的美國空軍基地。

It hosted the talks between Hamas and Israel.

它曾是哈瑪斯與以色列之間會談的舉辦地。

And in fact, for many years, Hamas had its headquarters in Qatar.

事實上，多年來，哈瑪斯一直將總部設在卡達。

It's kind of managed to sort of keep everybody in play.

So hitting Qatar was obviously for Trump, for President, Trump was a bridge too far and he reacted accordingly.

所以，對川普總統來說，攻擊卡達顯然是「太超過了」，他是以做出了反應。

And we can talk about his tweet in a second.

But, Faisal, I just wanted to rewind a little bit.

但是，費薩爾，我只想稍微倒帶一下。

And you were talking about the worst case scenario.

Just explain what that worst case scenario is and why it's the worst.

請解釋一下最壞的情況是什麼，以及為什麼它是最壞的。

Well, if we go back six months, maybe even three months, if you would have told me that the Straits of Hormuz would be blocked, and

嗯，如果我們回溯到六個月前，甚至三個月前，如果你告訴我荷姆茲海峽會被封鎖，

obviously that's the reference to that sort of small bit between Oman, the Peninsula and Oman and Iran, where it's sort of navigable, 10, 15 miles, and

顯然這是指阿曼、半島和阿曼與伊朗之間那段狹窄的水道，大約只有十到十五英里，

you were seeing missiles flying over the Gulf in either direction, aimed at capital cities and oil and energy installations.

你會看到飛彈朝海灣的任一方向飛去，瞄準首都城市以及石油和能源設施。

I would say that is the worst case scenario.

But essentially we would be looking at record oil and gas prices.

但基本上，我們會看到創紀錄的油價和天然氣價格。

We'd be looking at a supply issue that would primarily impact on Asia.

我們會面臨供應問題，這將主要影響亞洲。

But then, because Asia would then seek to sort of back up their supplies by buying in global markets, would then have a cascading effect on Europe and then the Americas.

但接著，因為亞洲會試圖透過購買全球市場的商品來補充供應，這將會對歐洲，然後美洲產生連鎖效應。

Because there'd be more competition stuff.

I mean, literally, I could show you a chart of astonishing.

我是說，真的，我可以給你看一張驚人的圖表。

You described them, these LNG tankers full of gas which were heading for Europe.

你剛才描述的，那些載滿天然氣的液化天然氣貨輪正開往歐洲。

And then as soon as the Iran war breaks out, they do a massive U turn in the Atlantic and go back through the Panama is willing to pay more.

然後一旦伊朗戰爭爆發，牠們就在大西洋來個大轉彎，然後通過巴拿馬運河，因為有人願意出更高的價錢。

You are seeing extraordinary things like the US Treasury Secretary saying, well, actually

你會看到一些不尋常的事，像是美國財政部長說，嗯，其實

you know, all this Iranian oil, you can now buy it.

你知道的，所有這些伊朗的石油，你現在都可以買了。

Because they want to, you know, they want to sort of calm down the oil price.

因為他們想要，你知道的，他們想要讓油價稍微穩定下來。

I think the big picture here is that the economic impact is not some accidental byproduct of this in terms of the Iranians.

我認為這裡的大方向是，伊朗的經濟影響並非意外的附帶結果。

It is their leverage is their counter weapon.

這是他們的籌碼，是他們的對抗武器。

And so that Makes it very difficult to predict.

你知道的，這不是，你知道的，而且

it seems to some, you know, you know, that explains their, then their military strategy.

有些人認為，你知道的，這解釋了他們的軍事策略。

It explains some of the sort of blood curdling threats that are made when you hear from their spokespeople.

這解釋了當你聽到他們發言人說出一些令人毛骨悚然的威脅。

It explains that the, you know, the American response from people at the Treasury Secretary to try and diffuse that, but

這解釋了，你知道的，從財政部長到其他人試圖緩和局勢的美國回應，但是

it makes it, it means that in trying to predict the economic impacts, as we try to do, as people at the bank of England try to do, is very, very difficult and it is starting to have economic consequences here in the uk.

這意味著，就像我們在努力預測經濟影響一樣，英格蘭銀行的人也在努力預測，這非常、非常困難，而且它已經開始對英國的經濟產生影響。

And we saw that today when the bank of England made its decision to hold interest rates.

我們今天看到這一點，當時英格蘭銀行決定維持利率不變。

But, Jane, you've printed off Donald Trump's post on Truth Social, which having looked at a lot of Donald Trump posts, he posted it.

不過 Jane，妳印了唐納·川普在 Truth Social 上的貼文，我看了很多唐納·川普的貼文，他確實發了這篇。

And it's full of the hyperbole that I think we would associate with his very middle of early hours posts.

而且充滿了我認為大家會聯想到他清晨時段貼文的誇大其詞。

But I think it feels the consequences of this are even greater than a lot of these, like, 2am posts.

但我覺得這件事的後果比他很多凌晨兩點的貼文還要嚴重。

Got a lot of capital letters in this post, and it's a very long post.

這篇貼文有很多大寫字母，而且篇幅很長。

And he accuses, he's accusing Israel for violently lashing out at South Pas gas field.

他指控，他指控以色列對 South Pas 天然氣田暴力攻擊。

It's sort of almost the language you'd think he would use about Iran, but

感覺上，這幾乎是他會用來形容伊朗的語言，但

And then he says, you know, in capital letters, no more attacks will be made by Israel, and

然後他說，你知道，大寫寫著，以色列不會再發動攻擊了，而且

we are taking the upper hand and we will do whatever we need to do without the help and consent of Israel, we will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pas gas field.

我們正在佔據上風，我們將會做我們需要做的一切，不需要以色列的幫助和同意，我們將會大規模炸毀整個 South Pas 天然氣田。

He's talking about if Iran was to retaliate against an innocent, as he puts it, which is Qatar in this instance of what happened overnight.

他在說，如果伊朗要報復一個無辜的國家，就像他所說的，在這個情況下就是卡達，發生了連夜的事件。

So, yeah, I think he's not mincing his words.

所以，是的，我認為他毫不諱言。

And Jane, this is where we get into the different war aims that America and Israel have here.

而 Jane，這就是我們進入美國和以色列在這裡的不同戰爭目標的地方。

And what they regard as an end game, what they regard as the ultimate.

以及他們認為的結局，他們認為的最終目標。