Name: 伊朗戰爭如何演變成世界大戰？！ (How The Iran War is Becoming a World War)
Uploaded: 2026-03-19T17:18:41.000Z
Duration: 34 min 50 s

情態副詞

On the final day of February, Donald Trump decided to take the biggest gamble of his political career and launch the biggest war the Middle east has seen in decades that is radically and quickly changing the way our entire world works.

在二月最後一天，Donald Trump 決定放手一搏，發動了他政治生涯中最重大的豪賭，以及數十年來中東地區規模最大的戰爭，這場戰爭正在徹底且快速地改變我們整個世界的運作方式。

基礎被動語態

After months of buildup, the war was launched in coordination with Israel on 28 February that immediately involved heavy Israeli airstrikes on the personal compound of Iran's 86 year old supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killing him in a sea of fire.

在數月的軍事部署後，這場戰爭於二月二十八日與以色列協調發動，並立即對伊朗八十六歲最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊的個人住所發動猛烈空襲，將他葬身火海。

進階形容詞比較級句型

Multiple other opening Israeli airstrikes immediately targeted other senior Iranian leadership in an attempt to decapitate as much of the country's ruling elites as possible, which up to this video's production has included the Iranian Defense Minister, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or the IRGC, and

多次其他的開幕以色列空襲立即鎖定伊朗其他高級領導人，試圖盡可能地剷除該國的統治菁英，截至本影片製作時，這已包括伊朗國防部長、伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）的指揮官，

Within just the first six days of the war's start, the US military already carried out more than 2,000 airstrikes all across Iran that have sunk nearly the entirety of the Iranian navy's major surface vessels.

在戰爭開始的最初六天內，美國軍隊已在伊朗全境進行了超過兩千次空襲，擊沉了伊朗海軍幾乎所有的主要水面艦艇。

While a separate US submarine strike on an Iranian frigate thousands of miles away from Iran off the coast of Sri Lanka represented the first US submarine kill since the end of the Second World War.

而一項獨立的美國潛艦襲擊行動，在距離伊朗數千里外斯里蘭卡海岸附近的一艘伊朗巡防艦，是自第二次世界大戰結束以來，美國首次擊沉敵方潛艦的紀錄。

America's Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has claimed that the opening day of the war involved nearly double the number of American munitions dropped that were dropped on Saddam Hussein's Iraq on the first day of the shock and awe campaign in 2003, while the Israeli Air Force has claimed they have been actively striking around 1,000 targets all across Iran every single day as well, a pace of attacks that have been enabled by their newly gained ability to fly over Syria and American aerial tankers refueling them in the sky.

美國參謀長聯席會議主席聲稱，戰爭首日美軍投下的彈藥量幾乎是二零零三年休克與震懾行動首日對薩達姆·海珊的伊拉克投彈量的兩倍，而以色列空軍則聲稱他們每天都在伊朗全境積極攻擊約一千個目標，這種攻擊速度得益於他們新獲得的飛越敘利亞的能力，以及美國空中加油機在空中為他們加油。

Western based human rights groups have already reported that more than 1,000 civilians across Iran have already been killed by these American and Israeli airstrikes.

西方人權組織已報告，伊朗境內已有超過一千名平民死於這些美國和以色列的空襲。

Military casualties beyond the supreme leader within Iran due to this overwhelming aerial war are so far unclear.

在這場壓倒性的空中戰爭中，伊朗境內除最高領袖之外的軍事傷亡數字迄今仍不清楚。

But the Israelis have been actively attempting to strike every single IRGC headquarters across the country and and even bomb the building that contained the senior leadership responsible for selecting the next supreme leader, a clear sign that Israel's military objective at least is to grind down Iran's military capabilities and cause enough shock to the system to induce the regime into collapse by whatever means necessary.

但以色列一直在積極試圖打擊該國境內每一個IRGC總部，甚至轟炸了存放負責選出下一任最高領袖的高級領導人的建築，這清楚表明以色列的軍事目標至少是盡可能削弱伊朗的軍事能力，並對體製造成足夠的衝擊，以迫使該政權不惜一切代價崩潰。

America and Trump's objectives for having started the war, meanwhile, remain much less clear.

不過，美國和Trump發動這場戰爭的目標，至今仍不明朗。

Trump himself has variously urged on the Iranian people to rise up against the battered regime in a revolution, so suggesting it's about regime change while also saying that he would still be willing to talk to the regime and cut some kind of a deal.

Trump本人曾多次呼籲伊朗人民起來反抗這個飽受摧殘的政權，發動革命，這似乎是為了政權更迭，但他也表示願意與該政權對話，達成某種協議。

His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has variously stated that America's war aims are to destroy Iran's ballistic missile program and its navy, while his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has added that it's also about finishing off all of Iran's nuclear capabilities as well.

他的國務卿Marco Rubio曾表示，美國的戰爭目標是摧毀伊朗的彈道飛彈計畫和海軍，而他的戰爭部長Pete Hegseth則補充說，這也是為了徹底摧毀伊朗所有的核能力。

In justifying the attacks, Trump and his administration officials have variously stated that it was because Iran was supposedly too close to acquiring a nuclear weapon, despite the strengths on Iran's nuclear program last year that had supposedly obliterated their capabilities to a sense that Israel was going to strike Iran regardless of what America wanted.

在為這次攻擊辯護時，Trump及其政府官員曾表示，這是因為伊朗據稱太接近擁有核武，儘管去年伊朗核計畫的實力據稱已經使其能力蕩然無存，讓以色列覺得無論美國怎麼想，都要攻擊伊朗。

And so America had to attack Iran first in order to destroy their ability to retaliate to that Israeli attack, to a feeling by Trump himself that the Iranians were supposedly preparing to attack first and America had to preemptively strike them along with the Israelis.

所以美國必須先攻擊伊朗，以摧毀他們對以色列攻擊進行報復的能力，Trump本人認為伊朗據稱正準備先發動攻擊，美國必須與以色列一起先發制人。

the biggest reason is is simply the cold geopolitical calculus that the Americans and Israelis felt that the Iranian regime was at its weakest point in decades.

最主要的原因，其實就是美國和以色列認為伊朗政權正處於數十年來最虛弱的時刻，這是一個冷酷的地緣政治計算。

Iran's water resources had dried up after years of mismanagement and drought, its economy and currency were both in active freefall, while a large scale popular uprising against the regime in January was brutally suppressed by the regime's besieged paramilitary units after Khamenei ordered them to begin opening fire indiscriminately.

伊朗的水資源在多年的管理不善和乾旱後已經枯竭，經濟和貨幣都處於自由落體狀態，而一月份針對該政權的大規模民眾起義，在Khamenei下令無差別開槍後，被該政權圍困的準軍事部隊殘酷鎮壓。

Sensing that these protests were an existential threat against the regime, credible human rights organizations estimate that the besieged paramilitary units massacred a minimum of 7,000 of the protesters, while other estimates go up to as high as 30,000 deaths or even higher, representing by far the bloodiest crackdown on protesters in modern Iranian history.

這些抗議活動被視為對政權的生存威脅，可靠的人權組織估計，被圍困的準軍事部隊屠殺了至少7,000名抗議者，而其他估計高達30,000人死亡或更高，這是有史以來伊朗現代史上最血腥的鎮壓抗議者事件。

Trump threatened a clear red line that if the regime began killing protesters en masse, he would intervene militarily.

Trump曾威脅劃下一條明確的紅線，如果該政權開始大規模殺害抗議者，他將軍事介入。

And he initially didn't do much of anything to retaliate.

而他一開始並沒有做太多反擊。

The US military wasn't really in a good position to do so at the time, without even any aircraft carrier strike groups present in the region at all.

當時美國軍隊其實並沒有很好的位置可以這麼做，而且該區域根本沒有航空母艦戰鬥群。

In fact, Trump's threats may have given the regime a perverse incentive to re establish their control over their own population at any cost before the US could actually deploy their assets back to the region to respond.

事實上，Trump的威脅可能反而給了這個政權一個扭曲的動機，讓他們不惜一切代價重新掌控自己的人民，以免美國真的能將資產部署回該區域進行回應。

But following the ruthless put down of the protests and sensing the regime's lingering vulnerability, the US began rapidly concentrating their assets back into the region to the largest scale since the 2003 invasion of Iraq began threatening the regime to negotiate on surrendering its nuclear and ballistic missile programs or face the consequences, and

但在殘酷鎮壓抗議活動後，並感覺到政權仍然脆弱，美國開始迅速將其資產重新集中到該區域，規模是自2003年伊拉克戰爭以來最大的，威脅該政權談判放棄核武和彈道飛彈計畫，否則將面臨後果，而且

then eventually, evidently decided to simply attack to force the regime into submission or collapse through alternative means instead.

接著最終，顯然決定直接發動攻擊，以其他方式迫使該政權屈服或崩潰。

And now the war that he started risks exploding across the entire Middle East.

而現在他發動的戰爭，有引爆整個中東的風險。

It risks massive destruction to the global economy, and

它有對全球經濟造成巨大破壞的風險，而且

it risks rapidly devolving into a quagmire whose outcome could end up being much, much worse than the world we knew beforehand.

它有迅速演變成泥沼的風險，其結果可能比我們之前所知的世界還要糟得多。

The Iranians have decided to retaliate against these existential American and Israeli attacks by basically attacking everyone else around them.

伊朗人決定報復這些美國和以色列的生存威脅攻擊，方法就是攻擊他們周圍的其他人。

Since the war began, the Iranians have fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of explosive kamikaze drones into the territories of Oman, the uae, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

自從戰爭開始以來，伊朗人向阿曼、阿聯酋、沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達、巴林、科威特、伊拉克、敘利亞、約旦、以色列、賽普勒斯、土耳其和亞塞拜然的領土發射了數百枚彈道導彈和數千架自殺式無人機。

So far, on the opening day of the war alone, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel and another 250 more at the various six Gulf countries.

到目前為止，僅在戰爭的第一天，伊朗就向以色列發射了180枚彈道導彈，並向六個海灣國家發射了另外250枚。

Five days into the war, the UAE reported that Iran had fired more than 189 ballistic missiles into its territory and 941 of their cheaper explosive kamikaze drones, 93% of which they reported, were successfully intercepted by their air defenses.

戰爭五天後，阿聯酋報告稱，伊朗向其領土發射了超過189枚彈道導彈和941架較便宜的自殺式無人機，其中93%據報告已被其防空系統成功攔截。

Hundreds of additional projectiles have since been fired by Iran all across Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, while smaller numbers of projectiles numbering in the dozens have also been launched into Saudi Arabia and Oman.

此後，伊朗向科威特、巴林和卡達各地發射了數百枚額外的彈藥，同時也向沙烏地阿拉伯和阿曼發射了數十枚較小數量的彈藥。

And while most of the projectiles fired at these countries have also been intercepted, a few have broken through and damage has been inflicted.

雖然大多數射向這些國家的彈藥也已被攔截，但有幾枚突破了攔截，造成了損壞。

In Dubai, the fancy Fairmont hotel on the Palm Jumeirah, one of the city's famous reclaimed islands, was lit ablaze on the very first day.

在杜拜，位於朱美拉棕櫚島上的豪華費爾蒙酒店，這個城市著名的填海造陸島嶼之一，在第一天就燃起了熊熊大火。

Debris from an intercepted missile rained down on the exterior of the famous Burj Al Arab luxury seven star hotel, sparking a fire there as well.

被攔截導彈的碎片落下，擊中了著名的七星級豪華酒店帆船酒店的外牆，也引發了火災。

While more debris impacted Dubai's huge, huge international airport and fell across residents own backyards.

而更多的碎片擊中了杜拜巨大、巨大的國際機場，並散落在居民的後院。

More notably, Iranian drones have deliberately struck three of Amazon's data centers in the region as well.

值得注意的是，伊朗無人機還故意襲擊了該地區亞馬遜的三個數據中心。

Two impacted Amazon data centers in Dubai on the opening day of the war, while a third impacted another Amazon data center in Bahrain a few days later, representing the first times that critical AI related infrastructure had been attacked or damaged during wartime.

戰爭第一天，兩架無人機襲擊了杜拜的亞馬遜數據中心，幾天後，第三架無人機襲擊了巴林的另一個亞馬遜數據中心，這標誌著關鍵的AI相關基礎設施首次在戰時遭到襲擊或損壞。

And all of this has been a major, major shock to Dubai and the UAE's entire economic model, which for decades has been based on presenting itself as a supposed oasis of stability and calm in a dangerous but geographically critical region that links east and west for foreign businesses to set up their regional operations in.

這一切都讓杜拜和阿聯酋的整個經濟模式遭受了重大的衝擊，因為幾十年來，它們一直將自己打造成一個在危險但地理位置關鍵的地區的穩定與平靜的綠洲，連接東西方，供外國企業在此設立區域營運據點。

It has appealed as a place of residence for wealthy foreigners for decades now from Arabs attempting to escape the strife in the rest of the region to Europeans dodging their taxes, to Russians and Ukrainians fleeing military service.

幾十年來，這裡一直是富裕外國人的居住地，從試圖逃離該地區其他地方動盪的阿拉伯人，到逃避稅務的歐洲人，再到逃離兵役的俄羅斯人和烏克蘭人。

Dubai has received more foreign direct investment, more AI related data centers, and

杜拜獲得的外國直接投資、與人工智慧相關的數據中心，以及

is home to more regional foreign offices than any other city in its region.

比該地區任何其他城市都多的外國區域辦事處，都落腳於此。

Because of this reputation, which has led the city to be able to grow fabulously wealthy with its glittering skyline, now all of that is in jeopardy because of this war.

正因為有這樣的聲譽，讓這座城市得以擁有令人眼花繚亂的天際線，並變得極其富裕，但現在這一切都因為這場戰爭而岌岌可危。

The hum of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones flying over the city and the thunder of interceptors blowing them up in the sky, and

數百枚彈道導彈和無人機飛越城市上空的嗡嗡聲，以及攔截導彈在空中將其擊毀的雷鳴聲，

the roar of fighter jets, along with famous hotels and landmarks and infrastructure going up in flames, has shattered the illusion of Dubai being this oasis of common stability in a sea of chaos.

還有戰鬥機的呼嘯聲，加上著名的酒店、地標和基礎設施付之一炬，都粉碎了杜拜是混亂海洋中一個普遍穩定的綠洲的幻想。

Not since the Second World War has a city as globally well connected as Dubai been attacked so heavily during wartime.

自第二次世界大戰以來，像杜拜這樣一個全球聯繫緊密的城市，還沒有在戰時遭受如此猛烈的攻擊。

Foreign residents and companies will inevitably question their continued role in Dubai's future.

外國居民和公司無可避免地會質疑他們在杜拜未來的持續角色。

Following the conclusion of this war, as political risk, insurance premiums rise, and

戰爭結束後，隨著政治風險、保險費率的上升，以及

naturally, the UAE government is doing just about everything they can to reassure everyone that everything is perfectly under control in order to maintain their reputation and economic model as best they can going forward.

當然，阿聯酋政府正竭盡所能地安撫大家，讓大家知道一切都掌控之中，以便盡可能地維持他們的聲譽和經濟模式。

Because of the sheer volume of fire that Iran unleashed upon the Gulf states in the first few days of the war, there is a palpable fear that the Gulf states might be running dangerously low on the expensive interceptor missiles they require to keep shooting down any further waves of attack.

由於伊朗在戰爭初期向海灣國家發射了大量的火力，人們普遍擔心海灣國家可能已經嚴重耗盡了他們所需的昂貴攔截導彈，以攔截接下來的攻擊波。

Generally, air defenses will fire at least two interceptor missiles at each one incoming enemy missile to guarantee a kill as much as possible.

一般來說，防空系統會對每一枚來襲的敵方導彈發射至少兩枚攔截導彈，以盡可能確保擊殺。

Since the start of the war, Iran has fired more than 400 ballistic missiles at the Gulf states collectively, which implies that they've likely fired around 800 interceptor missiles in order to block most of them, an incredibly fast burn rate that is more than five times as many interceptors as the United States used against Saddam's army throughout the entirety of the first Gulf War.

自戰爭開始以來，伊朗總共向海灣國家發射了超過400枚彈道導彈，這意味著他們可能發射了約800枚攔截導彈來攔截其中大部分，這是極快的消耗速度，比美國在第一次波斯灣戰爭期間對抗薩達姆軍隊所使用的攔截導彈數量多出五倍以上。

Critically, because all governments treat the numbers of interceptors they have in their stockpiles as a closely guarded state secret, there's no reliable information on how many of them the Gulf states actually had before the war and how low their potential remaining stockpiles are now.

關鍵是，由於所有政府都將庫存的攔截導彈數量視為嚴格保密的國家機密，是以沒有可靠的資訊顯示海灣國家在戰爭前實際擁有多少數量，以及他們現在的庫存可能還剩下多少。

They're kept a secret because if an enemy knew exactly how many interceptors an opponent had left, they would know exactly how many missiles to fire in order to overwhelm them.

這些數量被保密，是因為如果敵人確切知道對手還剩下多少攔截導彈，他們就會確切知道要發射多少導彈才能壓倒對方。

All we know is that the Gulf states have expended an absolutely insane number of interceptors since the war began, and

我們只知道，自戰爭開始以來，海灣國家已經耗費了數量驚人的攔截導彈，

replacing them will take years worth of production and billions of dollars.

而補充這些導彈將需要數年的生產時間和數十億美元。

If their stockpiles are truly on the lower end like many suspect, the Gulf states might have to begin making painful decisions on how to use whatever they have left if Iran fires further waves of strikes, choosing which sites to defend and which sites to leave exposed, possibly forcing them to eventually start pressuring the Americans to put a stop to the war, lest they have to risk their cities and major infrastructure actually getting badly damaged.

如果他們的庫存真的像許多人猜測的那樣處於較低水平，那麼如果伊朗發動更多波次的襲擊，海灣國家可能不得不做出艱難的決定，如何使用他們剩下的攔截導彈，選擇要防禦哪些地點，哪些地點則任其暴露，這可能會迫使他們最終開始向美國施壓，要求他們結束戰爭，以免他們必須冒著城市和主要基礎設施遭到嚴重損壞的風險。

And that, in essence, is why Iran decided to radically escalate the scope of this war in retaliation by attacking basically everyone else around them, even if they had nothing to do with the US And Israeli attacks in the first place.

這，本質上，就是伊朗決定通過攻擊周圍幾乎所有國家來徹底升級這場戰爭的報復方式，即使他們一開始與美國和以色列的襲擊毫無關係。

The US Military maintains big, very large bases and presences in Qatar, Bahrain, the uae, Kuwait, and

美國軍隊在卡達、巴林、阿聯酋、科威特和

Saudi Arabia, which Iran has used as their justification for the retaliatory attacks on these countries.

沙烏地阿拉伯設有大型、非常龐大的基地和駐軍，伊朗就以此為藉口，對這些國家發動了報復性攻擊。

But none of these countries actually permitted the US Military to utilize their bases for the attacks that were launched on Iran.

但這些國家實際上都沒有允許美國軍隊利用他們的基地來發動對伊朗的攻擊。

And they wouldn't even allow the US Military to utilize their airspaces either.

他們甚至不允許美國軍隊使用他們領空。

All of the American attacks came either from their aircraft carriers operating in the Arabian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean or.

所有美國的攻擊，要不是來自於在阿拉伯海和東地中海運作的航空母艦，就是。

Or from their Arab bases in Jordan, but none from the Gulf states directly.

要不然就是來自約旦的阿拉伯基地，但沒有直接從海灣國家發動。

Iran's real aim in attacking the Gulf states the way they have, is to try and cause as much damage to the global economy as physically possible in an attempt to force Trump to end the war under the pressure of even further pain.

伊朗真正攻擊海灣國家的目的，是試圖盡可能地損害全球經濟，以期在更大的痛苦壓力下，迫使Trump結束戰爭。

In addition to the attacks on the cities themselves and the terror they inflicted on residents, consider the damage the attacks have already done to the global oil and airline industries as well.

除了攻擊城市本身以及對居民造成的恐慌之外，還要考慮到這些攻擊已經對全球石油和航空業造成的損害。

Iranian missiles and drones have bombarded Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery at Ras Tenera and Qatar's supermassive LNG facility at Ras Lafan, shutting down production at both for an uncertain amount of time.

伊朗的飛彈和無人機轟炸了沙烏地阿拉伯位於Ras Tenera的最大煉油廠，以及卡達位於Ras Lafan的超大型液化天然氣設施，導致兩處的生產在不確定的時間內中斷。

Meanwhile, Iran has also ordered the closure of the narrow Strait of Hormuz and threaten to light a blaze any ship that dares to pass through.

同時，伊朗也下令關閉狹窄的荷姆茲海峽，並威脅要點燃任何膽敢通過的船隻。

For decades, this action has been the most feared method of escalation that Iran has been capable of.

幾十年來，這種行動一直是伊朗最令人擔憂的升級手段。

The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world, since virtually all of the oil exports of Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and

荷姆茲海峽是全球最關鍵的海上咽喉點，因為伊拉克、科威特、伊朗幾乎所有的石油出口，

most of those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have no other choice but to pass through it towards the world market as well as all of Qatar's LNG exports.

以及沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國大部分的石油出口，都必須經過這裡才能運往世界市場，卡達的所有液化天然氣出口也是如此。

As a result, one third of all the world's seaborne crude oil and one fifth of all the world's LNG transit through the Strait on a daily basis.

是以，全球海運原油的三分之一，以及全球液化天然氣的五分之一，每天都通過海峽。

even with the majority of its large surface fleet sunk, Iran is believed to still have thousands of naval mines at its disposal that it can use its large number of much smaller motorboats to litter across the strait, in addition to attacks on cargo and tanker ships with drones and missiles.

即使伊朗大部分大型水面艦隊被擊沉，據信它仍然擁有數千枚海軍水雷，可以利用其龐大的小型快艇將其散佈在海峽，此外還能用無人機和飛彈攻擊貨船和油輪。

The result has been that since the war began, the strait has remained effectively closed, choking off a massive amount of the global supply of oil and gas, with ships too reluctant to pass through out of both fear and skyrocketing insurance costs, some 3,000 merchant vessels of all different kinds found themselves stranded by the end of the first week of the war, representing roughly 10% of the entire global container fleet.

結果是，自戰爭開始以來，海峽實際上一直處於關閉狀態，扼殺了大量的全球石油和天然氣供應，由於恐懼和飆升的保險費用，船隻不願通過，戰爭第一週結束時，約有3,000艘各式各樣的商船滯留，約佔全球貨櫃船隊的10%。

Iraq has already begun running out of storage space for crude oil that would normally be loaded up on tankers and is being forced to shut off production at multiple major fields, slicing production by millions of barrels a day.

伊拉克已經開始面臨原油儲存空間不足的問題，這些原油通常會裝載到油輪上，而且被迫關閉多個主要油田的生產，每天減產數百萬桶。

And the other Gulf states remain in a dangerous race against the clock to get the strait back open again or face closures of their own.

其他海灣國家也面臨著與時間賽跑的危險局面，試圖讓海峽重新開放，否則也將面臨關閉生產的風險。

Kuwait has warned that they also might need to shut down production shortly, and

科威特已警告，他們也可能很快需要關閉生產，

While Saudi Arabia has the ability to export some of their oil along pipelines out to the Red Sea coast, they might have to eventually shutter the majority of their production as well, since most of it also still has to go through her muds.

雖然沙烏地阿拉伯有能力透過輸油管將部分石油運往紅海沿岸，但他們最終可能也必須關閉大部分的生產，因為其中大部分仍需經過這裡。

If this trade remains closed for a week, several weeks, or several months, the consequences of all of this held up oil and gas blocked from the world market will grow increasingly painful for everyone in the world to bear.

如果這條航道關閉一週、幾週或幾個月，被封鎖的石油和天然氣無法進入全球市場所造成的後果，將讓全世界的人們越來越難以承受。

As of my writing of this script, the price of a barrel of crude oil has already jumped up by more than 14% since the war began, while the price of a megawatt hour of natural gas in Europe has spiked more than 70%, while Asia, who is the most critically affected since they purchased most of their oil from the Persian Gulf, has been the most negatively affected of all by skyrocketing gas and jet fuel prices.

在我撰寫這份腳本時，自戰爭開始以來，每桶原油的價格已經上漲了超過14%，歐洲每百萬瓦時的天然氣價格飆升了超過70%，而亞洲，由於購買了大部分來自波斯灣的石油，是以受到的影響最為嚴重，天然氣和噴射燃料價格飆升對他們造成了最負面的影響。

The longer the strait remains closed, the higher global energy prices will rise, the higher global inflation rates will rise with them, the lower global economic growth will sag, and

海峽關閉的時間越長，全球能源價格就越高，全球通膨率也隨之升高，全球經濟增長就越低迷，

the greater money that Russia will earn on their own oil and gas sales that will benefit the Kremlin's war machine in Ukraine.

俄羅斯從自家石油和天然氣銷售中賺取的金錢就越多，這將有助於克里姆林宮在烏克蘭的戰爭機器。

That Trump is also still ostensibly trying to put a stop to all of this, of course, is a massive gamble on the part of the Iranians.

當然，川普（Trump）仍然名義上試圖阻止這一切，這對伊朗來說是一場巨大的賭博。

On the one hand, attacking the Gulf states like this and their energy resources puts huge pressure on the United States to stop the war in order to avoid inflation from growing too far out of control.

一方面，攻擊像波斯灣國家及其能源資源，會對美國施加巨大壓力，要求美國停止戰爭，以避免通膨失控。

But on the other hand, doing this directly impacts China's primary source of oil that comes from the Persian Gulf as well and pisses them off while it also pushes the Gulf states further away into the Israeli camp and also invites retaliatory strikes on their own oil and gas infrastructure and shipping that they overwhelmingly rely on for their economy too.

但另一方面，這樣做直接影響了中國主要來自波斯灣的石油來源，惹惱了他們，同時也將波斯灣國家進一步推向以色列陣營，並可能招致對他們自身經濟高度依賴的石油和天然氣基礎設施及運輸的報復性打擊。

Then consider the damage being inflicted to the global aviation industry.

再考慮一下對全球航空業造成的損害。

The primary airports at major regional hubs like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha have all been impacted and damaged by the war since it began.

像是杜拜、阿布達比和杜哈等主要區域樞紐機場，自開戰以來都受到了戰爭的影響和損害。

With missiles, drones and aircraft all streaking through their skies, the airspaces were completely shut down across Iran, Iraq's Corporation, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Oman and Yemen, with partial airspace closures enforced in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

隨著飛彈、無人機和飛機劃破天際，伊朗、伊拉克公司、科威特、卡達、巴林、敘利亞、約旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、阿曼和葉門的空域都完全關閉，埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國則實施了部分空域關閉。

By the end of week one of the war, more than 18,000 flights to the Middle east region had been canceled, most of them to the major connecting hubs of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha that are central hubs to global air transportation between Europe, Asia and Africa.

戰爭開始一週後，超過一萬八千個飛往中東地區的班機被取消，其中大部分飛往杜拜、阿布達比和杜哈這些主要的轉運樞紐，它們是歐洲、亞洲和非洲之間全球航空運輸的中心。

A gigantic hole in the map of global airline routes has formed across the entire width of the Middle east from Iran to the Mediterranean, as everyone avoids the active conflict zone.

從伊朗到地中海，整個中東地區的全球航線地圖出現了一個巨大的空缺，因為大家都在避開活躍的衝突區。

And with Russia's airspace still blocked off to Western airlines because of the ongoing Ukraine war, there are basically only two narrow aerial highways that have formed to connect flights between east and West.

而且由於俄羅斯因烏克蘭戰爭持續而對西方航空公司關閉了領空，東、西方之間的班機基本上只剩下兩條狹窄的空中通道。

One across the Southern Caucasus in Central Asia and the other across Egypt and central Saudi Arabia.

一條是橫跨中亞的南高加索地區，另一條則是橫跨埃及和沙烏地阿拉伯中部。

All of them longer routes than normal that are requiring more jet fuel to fly.

這些航線都比平常更長，需要更多的噴射燃料來飛行。

At the same time as oil prices are spiking too.

As I was writing this script, it was reported that Iran fired a missile into the territory of Azerbaijan as well, reportedly damaging the regional airport in Azerbaijan's autonomous Nakhayvan exclave and wounding four people in the process.

在我撰寫這份講稿時，有報導指出伊朗也向亞塞拜然領土發射了一枚飛彈，據稱損壞了亞塞拜然自治的納希切萬飛地的區域機場，並造成四人受傷。

Potentially representing a challenge to this northern alternative air corridor as well that might even further constrain global airlines options and which has led Azerbaijan to also threaten retaliation against Iran.

這可能對這條北方的替代空中走廊構成挑戰，進一步限制了全球航空公司的選擇，並導致亞塞拜然也威脅要對伊朗進行報復。