Name: AI保麗龍會影響你的終身俸嗎？ | 服務條款 (Will an ‘AI bubble’ affect your retirement? | Terms of Service)
Uploaded: 2026-03-10T16:38:03.000Z
Duration: 23 min 33 s

我是 CNN 的科技記者 Claire Duffy。

Artificial intelligence has been driving massive gains in the stock market over the past couple of years.

過去幾年，人工智慧帶動了股市的驚人漲幅。

But there are also concerns that this might not last and that over indexing on AI could lead to big consequences.

但也有人擔心這可能不會長久，過度投資 AI 可能會導致嚴重的後果。

Some experts think we could be heading towards something similar to the implosion of the dot com bubble, where technology stocks rose rapidly with the emergence of the Internet in the late 90s and then crashed in 2000.

有些專家認為我們可能會走向類似網路保麗龍的破滅，當時在網際網路興起時，科技股在 90 年代末快速上漲，然後在 2000 年崩盤。

So is the AI market a bubble waiting to burst?

那麼，AI 市場是一個正在等待破滅的保麗龍嗎？

And if so, how worried do we all as individuals need to be about our own Investments and 401ks?

如果是的話，我們個人對於自己的投資和 401k 到底需要多擔心？

To help me answer those questions, I have Ross Mayfield here with me today.

為了協助我回答這些問題，今天我請到了 Ross Mayfield。

Ross is an investment strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management, where he helps clients make informed investment decisions.

Ross 是 Baird Private Wealth Management 的投資策略師，他協助客戶做出明智的投資決策。

So before we get into AI specifically, let's talk about what a market bubble is.

在我們深入探討 AI 之前，我們先來聊聊什麼是市場保麗龍。

What are some attributes that you define a market bubble?

你會用哪些特徵來定義市場保麗龍呢？

A few of the telltale signs of a bubble are one, just prices separating from fundamentals, right?

市場保麗龍的一些警示跡象是，第一，價格與基本面脫節，對吧？

Prices going up at a pretty monumental clip and leaving fundamentals of whatever the underlying is completely in the dust.

價格以驚人的幅度上漲，完全把標的的潛在基本面遠遠拋在後面。

So it could be tech stocks, it could be the housing market, it could be something entirely different, but

所以可能是科技股、房地產市場，或是其他完全不同的東西，但

prices going vertical and leaving the fundamentals behind.

價格飆升，把基本面拋諸腦後。

And when you say fundamentals, you're talking about what the business is actually poised to make, right?

當你說基本面時，你指的是企業實際預期能賺到多少，對吧？

The earnings of the company, the cash flows of the companies.

In the case of housing, what the cost to build the housing was, the fundamentals that define a business in this case, which we typically use to price companies, to price the stock market to make investments, they should be the core driver.

就房地產而言，建造房屋的成本是多少，定義一家企業的這些基本面，我們通常用來為公司定價、為股市定價、進行投資，它們應該是核心驅動力。

An asset bubble tends to pop up when a narrative or kind of a speculative fervor outweighs any sense of the fundamentals of the underlying.

資產保麗龍往往在敘事或投機狂熱壓倒任何對標的基本面的認知時出現。

Everybody piling in, everybody on one side of the boat.

大家一窩蜂地進場，大家都在同一邊。

And there's a sense that this time is different for whatever reason.

而且出於某種原因，大家都會覺得「這次不一樣」。

And so that narrative and that psychology are really important, but they're also really hard to pin down.

所以這種敘事和心理很重要，但也很難捉摸。

So that's one of the things we're watching for really closely.

所以這是我們密切關注的事情之一。

Ok, so price not matching with fundamentals and then this narrative, the speculation, those are the two big pieces you look at when defining a market bubble or an asset bubble.

好的，所以價格與基本面不符，然後這種敘事、投機，這就是定義市場保麗龍或資產保麗龍時，你會關注的兩大重點。

And there are other things on the margins, right?

而且在邊緣，還有其他一些事情，對吧？

You would look for excessive use of leverage or a lot of retail trading in certain asset classes.

你會看到過度使用槓桿，或是某些資產類別有很多散戶在交易。

In the dot com bubble And I'm sure we'll talk a lot about that.

在網路保麗龍時期，我確定我們會多聊聊這部分。

There are all these stories about people quitting their jobs to day trade.

到處都有那種為了當沖而辭掉工作的故事。

It's not very quantitative, which is tough for analysts like myself.

這不是一個很量化的指標，這對像我這樣的分析師來說很難。

But you're looking for excess leverage, loose financial conditions, things that allow what might normally be just an expensive market or some excitement to morph into something different altogether.

但你會尋找過度的槓桿、寬鬆的金融條件，這些讓原本可能只是昂貴的市場或一些興奮感，轉變成完全不同的東西。

For people who might not be familiar, will you give us some examples or an example of a previous bubble?

對於可能不熟悉的人，你會給我們一些例子，或是一個過去保麗龍的例子嗎？

The dot com bubble of the late 90s is the go to example, particularly for today because it's a brand new technology.

90年代末的網路保麗龍是大家最常舉的例子，特別是今天，因為它是全新的科技。

It has a lot of promise to change the way that we exist in the world, the way that we work, the way that we move around through the world.

它很有潛力改變我們存在於世界的方式、我們工作的方式，以及我們在世界各地移動的方式。

There were a lot of new companies, a lot of, a lot of investment into the infrastructure and hardware that would take to make this come off the ground.

有很多新公司，投入了大量基礎設施和硬體的建置，這些都是讓它得以實現的關鍵。

Ultimately a big run up in tech stocks like we're seeing today, followed by the dot com bubble popping in the early 2000s.

最終，科技股出現了像我們今天看到的這樣大幅飆升，接著在2000年代初期出現了網路保麗龍破裂。

所以這是一個非常常見的例子。

We might touch on that a little bit more.

I would say this also resembles pretty closely the mid-1800s railroad bubble, which is my favorite bubble.

我會說這也很類似1800年代中期的鐵路保麗龍，這是我最喜歡的保麗龍。

Yeah, it's great, right, because railroads are such an old school technology, but

是啊，很棒，對吧，因為鐵路是一種非常老派的技術，但

in the 1800s they were the AI of their time.

在1800年代，它們就是當時的AI。

這是一項改變遊戲規則的技術。

You had to build all the railroads, lay all the tracks.

你必須建造所有的鐵路，鋪設所有的軌道。

So big upfront investment for an uncertain future.

所以前期投入很大，但未來卻不確定。

And then of course that comes along with a lot of hype, a lot of charlatanism.

然後當然，這伴隨著大量的炒作和騙術。

But ultimately I think the thing that's really important is both of those bubbles and I think the AI market today were investments in productive assets that even once the bubble popped had long uses.

但最終我認為真正重要的是，這兩個保麗龍，以及我認為今天的AI市場，都是對生產性資產的投資，即使保麗龍破裂，這些資產仍有長遠的用途。

The Internet is still obviously the bedrock of the economy today.

網際網路顯然至今仍是經濟的基石。

Railroads the the same for the rest of the 1800s and a lot of the 1900s.

鐵路在整個1800年代和1900年代的大部分時間裡也是如此。

It's when you get bubbles in non productive assets financed with debt that can be really problematic.

當非生產性資產出現保麗龍，並以債務融資時，那才會真正出問題。

So the first asset bubble of all time references the tulip bubble and the Dutch tulip mania.

所以有史以來第一個資產保麗龍，指的是鬱金香保麗龍和荷蘭的鬱金香狂熱。

And so big asset, you know, FOMO asset prices going straight up, but

所以大型資產，你知道，FOMO（錯失恐懼症）導致資產價格一路飆升，但

So it was, it was a lot of speculation and fervor for an underlying that had no fundamentals because it was, it was just a flower.

所以這就是，這就是很多投機和狂熱，針對一個沒有基本面的標的，因為它，它只是一朵花。

Yeah, I think that's such an important point that you're making there, that even when there are bubbles that pop and cause Short term, you know, financial strain on people, and

對，我認為你說的這一點非常重要，即使有保麗龍破裂，造成短期內的，你知道，對人們的財務壓力，而且

But they can still lead to these investments in future technologies that are really important.

但它們仍然可以引導對未來重要技術的投資。

I mean, we're still using railroads today.

意思是，我們到現在還在使用鐵路。

We've heard lots of talk over the past year about this bubble.

在過去一年裡，我們聽到了很多關於這個保麗龍的討論。

我們是不是在保麗龍裡，是不是不在？

Why do you think that so many people are talking about this right now?

你為什麼覺得這麼多人現在都在談論這個？

I think that in a lot of ways we're always the general fighting the last war outside of the pandemic.

我覺得在很多方面，我們都像是在打贏了上一場仗之後，卻還在為上一次的戰爭做準備，尤其是在疫情之外。

The two big financial crises that most investors and consumers in the last 40 years were the dot com bubble and the great financial crisis.

在過去 40 年裡，大多數投資人和消費者經歷了兩次重大的金融危機，那就是網路保麗龍和次貸風暴。

This has so many commonalities to the dot com bubble that I think it's just an easy thing for people to glob onto and look for the similarities and really dig at it.

這和網路保麗龍有太多相似之處了，我覺得大家很容易抓住這一點，尋找相似之處並深入探討。

And if you look over the last 10, 15 years, I mean, this has been a common thing.

而且如果你看看過去的 10 到 15 年，我的意思是，這一直都是很常見的事情。

But when Facebook IPO'd in 2012, there was a lot of talk about a new tech bubble with these social media companies.

但當 Facebook 在 2012 年 IPO 時，大家也一直在談論這些社群媒體公司是不是在形成新的科技保麗龍。

So we've really been grabbing onto the themes that we're used to and that we've seen play out in real time.

所以我們一直在抓住那些我們熟悉、並且親眼見證過的趨勢。

Yeah, everybody is so worried about it happening again.

對，大家都很擔心同樣的事情會再次發生。

We feel like we need to keep talking about it.

我們覺得需要一直討論這件事。

Do you think that we're in an AI bubble right now?

你覺得我們現在正處於 AI 保麗龍中嗎？

I'll just go back to our definition of a bubble.

我會回到我們對保麗龍的定義。

I mean, number one, we've had a robust bull market.

我的意思是，第一點，我們經歷了一個強勁的牛市。

But really not even close to what you see in a true asset bubble.

但實際上離你看到的真正資產保麗龍還差得很遠。

One of our favorite charts to use on this is comparing the NASDAQ today from the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 and the NASDAQ in the late 90s from the Netscape IPO in 1995.

我們最喜歡用來比較的一個圖表，是比較從 2022 年底 ChatGPT 推出至今的 NASDAQ，以及 1995 年 Netscape IPO 以來的 90 年代末期的 NASDAQ。

And the NASDAQ is up more than 100% over the last couple of years.

在過去幾年裡，NASDAQ 上漲了 100% 以上。

無論怎麼看，都是驚人的幅度。

And you see that price move and you think bubble.

你看到那樣的價格變動，就會覺得是保麗龍。

But then if you look at what a real bubble looks like, the late 90s, the NASDAQ was up over 700% in five years.

但如果看看真正的市場保麗龍是什麼樣子，90 年代末期，NASDAQ 在五年內漲了 700% 以上。

Today just looks kind of like a bull market.

今天的市場看起來比較像是一個牛市。

And the other big thing is it's driven by the fundamentals of the underlying companies.

另一件很重要的事情是，這是由標的公司的基本面所驅動的。

Right now there are, you know, exceptions every rule.

So there are some companies and some slices of the market that do look bubbly to us, but

所以有些公司和市場的某些部分看起來確實有保麗龍，但

by and large, the big players at the center of this are really cash rich, really for now, low debt, very profitable.

總體來說，處於中心的大型公司都現金充裕，目前負債很低，而且非常賺錢。

Outside of the AI stuff, they all have core businesses that are extremely profitable.

除了 AI 相關的之外，它們都有非常賺錢的核心業務。

And then the other thing is there's just not a fervor or a euphoria.

還有就是，現在並沒有那種狂熱或欣喜若狂的氣氛。

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