Name: AI保麗龍正在崩潰…政府又一次出手救市！ (The AI Bubble is Crashing…And The Government Is Bailing Out The Stock Market (Again))
Uploaded: 2026-03-07T18:04:26.000Z
Duration: 13 min 3 s

情態副詞

The AI bubble is bursting and what's about to happen is way worse than you can possibly imagine.

AI bubble 正在破裂，接下來發生的事會比你想像的還要糟得多。

The US government is preparing to bail out the entire stock market.

美國政府正準備紓困整個股票市場。

程度副詞

And that is really weird because the U.S. government has a national debt of $38 trillion.

這真的很奇怪，因為美國政府的國債已經高達 38 兆美元。

But on the other side, it is planning to bail out the companies that literally have trillions of dollars.

但另一方面，它卻計畫要紓困那些手上握有數兆美元的公司。

But the real question is, how do you know that the AI bubble is bursting?

但真正要問的是，你怎麼知道 AI bubble 正在破裂？

Now first of all, the company that has been driving AI up until now is OpenAI.

首先，到目前為止一直推動 AI 發展的公司是 OpenAI。

And OpenAI last year has pledged to invest about $1.4 trillion.

而 OpenAI 去年承諾要投資大約 1.4 兆美元。

It signed hundreds of billions of dollars worth of deals with companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia and was planning to go public.

它跟 Microsoft、Amazon 和 Nvidia 等公司簽署了數千億美元的交易，並且計畫公開上市。

But it seems like nobody wants to invest in OpenAI.

這就是為什麼它們沒有公開上市。

But now they are massively running out of money and are trying to raise money from investors.

但是現在它們的資金快用完了，正在試圖向投資者籌集資金。

它們連 1000 億美元都籌集不到。

And that is the least amount of money they need just to survive 2026.

而這僅僅是它們撐到 2026 年所需的最低資金。

Last year they bragged that they have signed a 100 billion dollar investment from Nvidia.

去年它們還吹噓說，已經和 Nvidia 簽下了 1000 億美元的投資。

Nvidia is only going to invest in OpenAI $30 billion.

Nvidia 只打算投資 OpenAI 300 億美元。

Now the second sign that the AI bubble is bursting, the just take a look at the three largest companies that have been massively investing in AI.

現在第二個 AI bubble 正在破裂的跡象是，看看那些過去大規模投資 AI 的三大公司。

The price of Oracle stock is down by 55%.

In September last year, just when they announced I bought the Oracle stock and the stock price instantly spiked.

去年九月，就在他們宣佈我買了 Oracle 股票的時候，股價瞬間飆漲。

But I knew that it's a bubble and I instantly sold all my stocks and I told the VIP members in the community to sell their stocks as well.

但我知道那是個保麗龍，我立刻賣掉所有股票，也告訴社群裡的 VIP 會員們賣掉他們的股票。

Since then the price of the stock has gone down by more than 55%.

從那之後，股價就下跌了超過 55%。

Because Oracle has borrowed tens of billions of dollars to build the data centers that are going to power ChatGPT.

因為 Oracle 借了數百億美元來蓋要支援 ChatGPT 的資料中心。

But OpenAI doesn't even have the money to pay Oracle in the first place.

但 OpenAI 根本沒錢先付給 Oracle。

這就是為什麼 Oracle 的股價會下跌。

Microsoft, which is another major investor in OpenAI, their stock price is down by 25%.

Microsoft，也是 OpenAI 的另一位主要投資者，他們的股價下跌了 25%。

Now over the last two to three years people made a fortune investing in Palantir.

在過去兩三年，很多人透過投資 Palantir 賺了大錢。

But it seems like it is over because the price of the Palantir stock is down by 35%.

不過，Palantir 的股價下跌了 35%，這似乎是個警訊。

And the third major sign that the AI bubble is bursting is Nvidia just released their revenue for the last quarter and they beat analysts expectations.

而 AI bubble 正在破滅的第三個重要跡象是，Nvidia 公佈了上一季的營收，超出了分析師的預期。

When you beat Wall Street's expectations, that means that you made more money than Wall street expected you to do so, which means that it instantly going to drive a lot of invest your stock.

當你超越華爾街的預期時，這意味著你賺的錢比華爾街預期的還要多，這通常會立刻帶動大量投資者湧入你的股票。

The price of Nvidia didn't really rise like it's supposed to every single time when you beat analysts expectations.

Nvidia 的股價並沒有像每次超出分析師預期時那樣真正上漲。

And that means that everybody is waiting for Nvidia stock to crash and the entire AI bubble to burst.

這意味著大家都在等 Nvidia 股價崩盤，整個 AI bubble 破滅。

Now here's the real question, why the price of Nvidia stock hasn't crashed yet.

現在，真正的問題是，為什麼 Nvidia 的股價還沒崩盤。

If the AI bubble is bursting as you're claiming, then the first company that's supposed to suffer is Nvidia.

如果 AI bubble 正在破滅，那麼第一個應該受影響的公司就是 Nvidia。

To understand that, you have to understand how bubbles are formed.

要理解這一點，你必須先了解氣泡是如何形成的。

I A bubble is formed where investors are spending a lot of money creating artificial demand and then the price of that asset dramatically rises.

氣泡的形成是因為投資者投入大量資金製造人為需求，然後該資產的價格就會急劇上漲。

People have invested in this asset or purchased this asset because they thought that if they're going to put $1 today, tomorrow they will get back $10.

大家投資或購買這項資產，是因為他們認為今天投入一塊錢，明天就能賺回十塊錢。

So the moment that price rises dramatically and then investors realize that they're not going to make as much money as they expected, so they will start massively selling an asset.

所以當價格急劇上漲，而投資者意識到他們賺不到預期那麼多錢時，他們就會開始大量拋售資產。

And so the price of that asset dramatically falls down.

然後該資產的價格就會大幅下跌。

When artificial intelligence became mainstream at the end of 2022, the big tech began spending hundreds of billions of dollars to develop AI and become the first company that is going to monopolize AI.

當人工智慧在 2022 年底成為主流時，大型科技公司開始投入數千億美元開發 AI，並成為第一個壟斷 AI 的公司。

So investors have invested a lot of money into companies such as Amazon, OpenAI, Nvidia and so on and so forth.

是以，投資者向 Amazon、OpenAI、Nvidia 等公司投入了大量資金。

That allowed these businesses to spend hundreds of billions of dollars.

這使得這些企業能夠花費數千億美元。

2024 年，他們花了 2550 億美元。

Last year they have spent about $400 billion and this year they're expected to spend about $700 billion.

去年他們花了約 4000 億美元，今年預計會花費約 7000 億美元。

So in total so far they have spent already $800 billion and they're about to spend another $700 billion, which means that in total that will be about $1.5 trillion.

所以到目前為止，他們總共已經花了 8000 億美元，而且即將再花 7000 億美元，這意味著總共將會是約 1.5 兆美元。

When you spend $1.5 trillion and your financial statement shows that you're not actually making any money from that investment and you're probably not going to make any profit out of that in the foreseeable future, that means that that investment is not going to pay off anytime soon.

當你花了 1.5 兆美元，而你的財務報表顯示你並沒有從這項投資中賺到任何錢，而且在可預見的未來可能也不會從中獲利，這表示這項投資短期內不會有回報。

But you have already spent that much money.

So investors invested in this business is hoping that this $1.5 trillion is going to make the big tech $3 trillion, $5 trillion.

所以投資者投資這項業務，是希望這 1.5 兆美元能讓這些大型科技公司賺到 3 兆、5 兆美元。

But based on their balance sheet, they're not going to make that much money at Least in the foreseeable future.

但根據他們的資產負債表，至少在可預見的未來，他們賺不到那麼多錢。

So investors instantly start pulling out their investments, which is why stock prices are already crashing.

是以，投資者立刻開始撤出資金，這就是為什麼股價已經在暴跌。

Nvidia is the only company that is not suffering out of this AI bubble because Nvidia is providing computer chips.

Nvidia 是唯一一家沒有受到這次 AI bubble 影響的公司，因為 Nvidia 提供電腦晶片。

And most of these investments are being made by companies such as Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, the companies that are data centers that are going to offer companies such as OpenAI to power ChatGPT.

而這些投資大部分是由 Amazon、Oracle、Microsoft 等公司進行的，這些公司是資料中心，將會為像 OpenAI 這樣需要運算能力來驅動 ChatGPT 的公司提供服務。

But to build the data centers, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle has to buy Nvidia computer chips.

但要蓋資料中心，Amazon、Microsoft 和 Oracle 就得買 Nvidia 的電腦晶片。

So that $1.5 trillion is literally being spent to buy computer chips from Nvidia to power AI.

所以那 1.5 兆美元，實際上就是花錢買 Nvidia 的電腦晶片來驅動 AI。

It is the companies that are building the data centers and the companies that offering AI services are the ones who are not making enough revenue to pay for these data centers.

那些蓋資料中心的公司，以及提供 AI 服務的公司，才是沒辦法賺到足夠的營收來支付這些資料中心的公司。

So if you zoom out, the only company that is actually making a profit out of AI is Nvidia.

所以如果你拉遠來看，唯一真正從 AI 賺到錢的公司就是 Nvidia。

And because nobody can compete with Nvidia's computer chips, Nvidia is literally making a ton of profit out of every single chip.

而且因為沒有人能跟 Nvidia 的電腦晶片競爭，Nvidia 在每一塊晶片上都賺取了大量的利潤。

In fact, if you literally just open their financial statements, they have like profit margins of 35 to 40%.

事實上，如果你打開他們的財務報表，他們的利潤率有 35% 到 40%。

And making a 40% profit on a real good, not a service is insanely high.

對於實體商品而不是服務，能有 40% 的利潤率，這真的非常高。

If you're selling a service such as Adobe does, of course your profit margins are extremely high because for every single extra subscription for Photoshop or After Effects, you're not actually losing money.

如果你賣的是服務，就像 Adobe 一樣，當然你的利潤率會非常高，因為 Photoshop 或 After Effects 每多一個額外的訂閱，你實際上並沒有虧錢。

But when you're selling a physical good such as an iPhone, then your profit margins cannot possibly be huge because there is a fixed cost that comes with every single iPhone.

但如果你賣的是 iPhone 這種實體商品，利潤率就不可能那麼高，因為每一支 iPhone 都會有固定成本。

Does that mean that all AI stocks are going to crash except Nvidia?

這是不是代表除了 Nvidia 之外，所有 AI 股票都會崩盤？

Well, not exactly, because the AI bubble is bursting and these companies will no longer have enough money to keep buying computer chips to build the data centers.

嗯，不完全是，因為 AI bubble 正在破裂，這些公司將沒有足夠的資金繼續購買電腦晶片來建造資料中心。

Which means that revenues of Nvidia are going to go down.

這意味著 Nvidia 的營收將會下降。

Which means that it is valuation is going to go down.

Which is exactly why Wall street did not actually keep buying Nvidia stocks even after they beat analysts expectations.

這就是為什麼即使 Nvidia 超出分析師預期，華爾街實際上也沒有持續買進 Nvidia 的股票。

But the AI industry is not worried because Uncle Sam is preparing to bail out the entire AI industry.

但 AI 產業並不擔心，因為山姆大叔正準備紓困整個 AI 產業。

Now according to Donald Trump's administration, the government is not going to bail out the AI.

現在根據川普政府的說法，政府不會紓困 AI 產業。

These companies have enough money to bail themselves out.

這些公司有足夠的資金來自行紓困。

But if you look at Donald Trump's actions, he made it clear that he is ready to bail out any company if the US government is going to take a stake in that business.

但如果你看看川普的行動，他很清楚，如果美國政府要入股某家公司，他就會準備紓困任何一家公司。

Last year, Donald Trump actually took A stake in intel, because the US government first offered a $10 billion investment into intel for Intel to bring manufacturing chips back to the United States of America.

去年，唐納·川普實際上入股了 Intel，因為美國政府先是提供了 100 億美元的投資給 Intel，讓 Intel 將晶片製造帶回美國。

And then Donald Trump look at that deal, and

然後唐納·川普看了這筆交易，

told intel, listen, you're going to give that $10 billion back to the US government.

並告訴 Intel，聽著，你們要把這 100 億美元還給美國政府。

So the government said, we are going to take a 10% stake in Intel.

所以政府說，我們要持有 Intel 10% 的股份。

And Donald Trump has actually made it very, very clear that is open to such deals.

而唐納·川普實際上已經非常非常清楚，他對這樣的交易持開放態度。

Which means that when the AI bubble is going to burst, Donald Trump is going to use the opportunity to bail out these businesses.

這意味著，當 AI bubble 破裂時，唐納·川普將利用這個機會來紓困這些公司。

But in exchange, the US government is going to take a stake in OpenAI and other AI businesses.

但作為交換，美國政府將入股 OpenAI 和其他 AI 公司。

Secondly, there is one thing that Donald Trump doesn't actually want, and that is losing to China.

第二，有一件事唐納·川普實際上不希望發生，那就是輸給中國。

If the AI bubble is going to burst, of course that is going to give an advantage to China, because many businesses in China that are developing AI have.

如果 AI bubble 破裂，當然這會給中國帶來優勢，因為中國許多正在開發 AI 的公司。

Have the backing of the Chinese government.

So in three to four years, China is going to overtake the United States, and

所以在三到四年後，中國將會超越美國，

that should never happen under the watch of Donald Trump.

而這絕對不能發生在唐納·川普的任內。

And if the AI bubble is also going to burst, the stock market is going to slow down.

如果 AI bubble 也破裂，股票市場就會開始走緩。

And if there is one thing that Donald Trump keeps bragging about is the stock market is soaring under his presidency.

唐納·川普最愛吹噓的就是在他總統任內，股票市場飆漲。

And I don't think he wants to see the stock market going down, especially when in 2026, there are midterm elections.

我認為他絕對不想看到股票市場下跌，尤其是在 2026 年還有期中選舉。

But that is really, really bad for the entire AI industry.

但這對整個 AI 產業來說，真的、真的非常糟糕。

Anytime the government gets into business or takes a stake in a private business, that is a complete catastrophe for that business.

任何時候政府介入商業，或入股私人企業，對那家企業來說都是一場徹底的災難。

And that's because the government is always inefficient.