Name: 我們為何與伊朗開戰？| The Gray Area (Why are we at war with Iran? | The Gray Area)
Uploaded: 2026-03-06T16:52:48.000Z
Duration: 36 min 35 s

I mean, I wish I could give you more answers.

我是說，我希望我能給你更多答案。

So I've been reporting on this war since, you know, basically one hour after it started.

所以我從戰爭開始大概一小時後就一直在報導這場戰爭了。

And I can say the most certainty I can tell you is that the range of options from this exact moment is that on one end, Iran has a US Friendly, perhaps semi democratic government to allout regional war in the Middle East.

而我能最確定告訴你的是，從現在這個時刻開始，選項範圍非常廣，一端是伊朗有一個親美的、也許是半民主的政府，另一端則是中東全面開戰。

My guest today is Alexander Ward, my friend, former VOX colleague, and

今天我的來賓是 Alexander Ward，他是我的朋友，前 VOX 同事，

now a national security reporter for the Wall Street Journal.

現在是華爾街日報的國家安全記者。

Alex is the first person I call or text whenever there is an international incident of any kind.

每次發生任何國際事件，Alex 都是我第一個打電話或傳訊息給的人。

And he always very patiently answers my questions.

而且他總是很有耐心地回答我的問題。

I've definitely been more rested, but I'm fine.

我確實比較有休息到，但我很好。

We really do sincerely appreciate you doing this on very short notice.

真的非常感謝你這麼緊急地幫忙。

We are speaking on Monday afternoon, March 2, and

我們現在是3月2號星期一下午，

it goes without saying that things are changing very quickly.

By the end of this taping, there may be a completely different situation on the ground, but

錄影結束時，現場情況可能已經完全不同了，但是

And so, look, all we can do is assess things as they are right now, and

所以，你看，我們現在只能評估當前的情況，

You know, I don't fully understand the situation.

你知道，我對現在的情況不是那麼清楚。

I am worried, I'm confused, I'm a little angry.

我感到擔心、困惑，還有點生氣。

你來是為了引導我走過這一切。

So at the end, I can probably still be worried, but maybe at least informed.

所以到最後，我可能還是會擔心，但至少會比較瞭解情況。

那麼，你對這件事有什麼看法？

Before we get to where things are now, I just.

Let me just go back to the decision to strike Iran in the first place.

回到最初決定要打擊伊朗的原因。

It is actually the multimillion dollar question, because I'm not sure I can even answer that question.

這真的是個價值數百萬美元的問題，因為我不太確定我能不能回答。

I'm not even sure President Trump can answer that question.

我甚至不確定川普總統能不能回答這個問題。

But let's start with what the rationale that they now say is the rationale.

但我們先從他們現在說的理由開始。

It started when there were major protests against the regime, and

這始於針對政權的大規模抗議，

Trump promised, quote, unquote, help is on its way.

川普承諾，引述「幫助正在路上」。

But what happened was in large part because Trump was worried about what it could unleash.

但這很大程度上是因為川普擔心這可能會引發什麼後果。

And also there were allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, who said, hey, you, the US Are not well positioned enough to protect us and your own troops should the Iranians retaliate to any strike.

還有一些盟友，特別是沙烏地阿拉伯和以色列，他們說，嘿，你們美國沒有足夠的能力來保護我們，萬一伊朗人對任何打擊進行報復，你們自己的部隊也會有危險。

那麼，這些抗議活動發生了什麼？

The US Amasses a pretty large, what Trump would call it armada, two carrier strike groups, jet fighters, other, other warships off the coast of Iran, while the US Says to Iran, hey, why don't we negotiate the end of your nuclear program and, and

美國集結了一支相當龐大的隊伍，川普稱之為艦隊，兩支航空母艦打擊群、噴射戰鬥機、其他、其他軍艦在伊朗海岸外，同時美國告訴伊朗，嘿，為什麼我們不談判結束你們的核計畫，以及

ballistic missile program and support for proxies, etc.

彈道飛彈計畫和對代理人的支持等等。

And that goes on for quite some time while this armada amasses.

在這支艦隊集結的同時，這件事持續了好一段時間。

And we could talk about why it failed, but the diplomacy failed.

我們可以談談為什麼它失敗了，但外交失敗了。

And when it did on last Thursday, Trump basically went, okay, diplomatic route's not gonna work, so now it's time to hit Iran.

上週四當它失敗時，川普基本上說，好吧，外交途徑行不通，所以現在是時候打擊伊朗了。

我們打擊伊朗，然後就發生了。

我相信我們之後會深入探討這個部分，

there are all kinds of mixed messages about what we're trying to accomplish.

關於我們想達成什麼目標，有各種混雜的訊息。

But to back to your point of why we did this.

但回到你剛剛說的，關於我們為什麼這麼做。

So initially start with the protest, then it was about the nuclear thing and that failed.

所以一開始是從抗議開始，然後是核武問題，但那失敗了。

And then at the State of the Union on Tuesday, before the strikes, I should note Trump was also, also mentioned the decades long fight between the US And Iran.

然後在週二的國情諮文演說中，在發動攻擊前，我必須指出川普也提到了美伊之間長達數十年的對抗。

There's been a pretty long shadow war, if we want to call it that, between the US And Iran, in which Iran has killed a lot of American service members and Americans themselves.

美國和伊朗之間，如果我們想這麼稱呼的話，已經有一場持續很久的影子戰爭，在這場戰爭中，伊朗殺害了許多美國軍人和美國人。

And they were, you know, based on US Intelligence, working on a nuclear program and they were trying to get an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the U.S.

而且，根據美國情報，他們正在研發核武計畫，並試圖製造一枚能打擊美國的洲際彈道飛彈。

so Trump basically goes between the protester thing, between the fact that they won't give up their nuclear program, the fact that they are, could threaten Americans and have killed Americans.

所以川普基本上是綜合考量了抗議事件、他們不願放棄核武計畫、以及他們可能威脅美國人並已殺害美國人的事實。

不過正如我之前暗示的，是為了什麼目的呢？

Was there actually any evidence that there was an imminent threat?

真的有證據顯示有迫在眉睫的威脅嗎？

Has anyone even attempted to make the argument that there was an imminent urgent threat?

有人試圖論證有迫在眉睫的緊急威脅嗎？

Yes, the Trump administration has tried to.

This would have been Saturday, three Trump administration officials, pretty senior ones, I can't say who, but

這會是在星期六，三位川普政府官員，都是相當資深的，我不能說出是誰，但是

they did a briefing for some reporters and they said, look, we, the Trump administration, have evidence that they have made a decision to seek an icbm, that, that intercontinental ballistic missile, that they were trying to reconstitute their nuclear program, and

他們為一些記者做了簡報，並說，聽著，我們川普政府有證據顯示他們已決定尋求洲際彈道飛彈，那枚洲際彈道飛彈，他們正試圖重組他們的核武計畫，而且

that they were weighing the idea of striking Americans before the US Hit them.

他們正在權衡在美國先動手之前打擊美國人的想法。

So at that point, it was worth going ahead and hitting them before they hit the U.S.

所以在那時候，值得先下手為強，在他們攻擊美國之前就先打擊他們。

我應該要提到，在那次簡報之後。

So basically 24 hours after that briefing time is a flat circle.

所以基本上，在那次簡報時間的24小時後，時間是個不斷循環的圓。

So on Sunday they brief members, excuse me, staffers of congressional staffers in which they, they were asked, so the Iranians were planning a preemptive strike on the US Wouldn't that be basically suicidal for them?

所以在星期天，他們向國會幕僚成員，抱歉，是國會幕僚們做了簡報，其中他們被問到，所以伊朗人正計畫對美國發動先發制人攻擊，這對他們來說不就等於自殺嗎？

And they went, oh, it's not that they were planning one necessarily.

他們回答，哦，不是說他們一定計畫了攻擊。

It was just that if the Israelis had struck the Iranians first, then they would have hit us.

只是如果以色列人先攻擊伊朗人，那麼他們就會攻擊我們。

So basically when we're talking about imminent, I don't think anyone is saying like they were going to attack Americans tomorrow, although they sort of did, I guess, on that preemptive strike point.

所以基本上，當我們在談論迫在眉睫，我不認為有人在說他們明天就要攻擊美國人，雖然他們有點這樣做了，我想，就那個先發制人攻擊的點來看。

But they are saying they are going to strike America at some point and it is not prudent or wise to wait until they're in a stronger position so looming it's coming, they are hell bent on hurting America.

但他們說他們總有一天會攻擊美國，而且等到他們處於更有利的地位時才行動，這是不明智的，所以威脅正在逼近，他們決心要傷害美國。

I mean, you've heard Trump use language similar to the Iraq war, which was like, they are attacking civilization.

我是說，你聽過川普用類似伊拉克戰爭的說法，像是他們在攻擊文明。

You know, it's kind of like they hate our freedom.

你知道，有點像是他們憎恨我們的自由。

To make that parallel that this was some, that this is a theocratic, which it is a theocratic like regime really trying to destroy America and Israel.

這樣做類比，認為這是一個神權政體，實際上這確實是一個神權政體，真的想摧毀美國和以色列。

And so it was, it time's up, I guess it was last June, America and Israel bombed Iran, bombed nuclear facilities and we were told they obliterated their capabilities of their facilities.

所以，我猜是去年六月，美國和以色列轟炸了伊朗，轟炸了核設施，我們被告知他們摧毀了這些設施的能力。

How do we go from being obliterated to, you know, a half a year later needing to start a war and decapitate the regime?

我們怎麼會從被摧毀，到，你知道，半年後需要發動戰爭並剷除這個政權？

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