Name: 美軍施壓伊朗，政權更迭是真實目的嗎？ | 直說 (U.S. military pressure on Iran – is regime change the real objective? | To the Point)
Uploaded: 2026-02-19T17:24:34.000Z
Duration: 26 min 8 s

戰艦、戰鬥機，緊張局勢升級。

The fight over Iran's nuclear program is entering a new and dangerous phase.

伊朗核計畫的爭議，正進入一個危險的新階段。

Negotiators are still talking, but on the ground, the confrontation is escalating on both sides.

談判代表還在談，但地面上的對抗，雙方都在升級。

There's saber rattling between the United States and Iran.

美國和伊朗之間，充滿了虛張聲勢。

Iran's Revolutionary Guard is flexing its muscles in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it just a naval exercise.

伊朗革命衛隊正在荷姆茲海峽展現實力，他們稱這只是場海軍演習。

Meanwhile, a US Aircraft carrier is already in the region and a second one has now been deployed to the Middle eas.

同時，一艘美國航空母艦已經在中東，第二艘也已經部署到中東。

Inside Iran, the regime is fueling anti American rhetoric.

在伊朗境內，該政權正在煽動反美言論。

And when Iranians protest, the authorities crack down brutally.

而當伊朗人抗議時，當局會殘酷鎮壓。

As we saw again in early January, Iranian exile communities around the world are rallying against the regime's violence.

就像我們在一月初再次看到的，世界各地的伊朗流亡社群正在集會，反對該政權的暴力。

And in the US the President is openly calling for political change in Tehran.

而在美國，總統公開呼籲德黑蘭進行政治變革。

All this while both sides say they still want to negotiate a nuclear deal.

然而，雙方都表示他們仍然希望協商核協議。

And to the point we ask US Military pressure on Iran is a regime change the real goal.

甚至讓我們質疑，美國對伊朗的軍事壓力，真正的目標是否是政權更迭。

Hans Jakob Schindler is a terrorism expert and director of the Counter Extremism Project.

Hans Jakob Schindler 是一位恐怖主義專家，也是反極端主義計畫的總監。

Daniel Gerlach is an author, commentator and leading expert in the Middle east and the wider Muslim world.

Daniel Gerlach 是一位作家、評論員，也是中東和廣泛穆斯林世界的頂尖專家。

He's also the editor in chief of Zenith magazine.

And Mehtab Ghalizadeh is an Iranian journalist specializing in macroeconomics, political economy and women's rights.

而 Mehtab Ghalizadeh 是一位伊朗記者，專精於宏觀經濟學、政治經濟學和婦女權利。

To all of you, welcome and thank you for being with us today.

各位，歡迎大家今天來到我們的節目。

The world saw those massive protests in Iran and the brutal repression that followed.

世界看到了伊朗大規模的抗議活動，以及隨之而來的殘酷鎮壓。

It seems like political turmoil is not in the international headlines at the moment anymore.

感覺上，政治動盪目前已經不在國際新聞的頭條了。

Honestly, you know, 40,000 people were killed in Iran.

說實話，你知道，伊朗有四萬人被殺。

And each family, directly or indirectly, are sorrow, are mourning.

而每個家庭，或多或少，都承受著悲傷和哀悼。

And as someone who experiences at least four major protests in Iran, I know after a huge crackdown, the society goes in deep disappointment and fall down.

身為一個在伊朗經歷過至少四次大型抗議的人，我知道在一次大規模鎮壓之後，社會會陷入深深的失望和低迷。

But in this time, one thing was very different, is very different citizens.

但這一次，有一件事很不一樣，是公民們很不一樣。

They hope by a strike by the United States or military strike, because during the years people find that they have no guns, no weapons, no oil, and

他們希望美國能有所行動，或是軍事打擊，因為這些年來，人民發現他們沒有槍、沒有武器、沒有石油，

they cannot stay in front of the government with their hand.

So they find that they need a broad help, a military, maybe it should be led to goes the Islamic Republic down.

所以他們認為需要廣泛的援助，軍事上的，或許應該引導伊斯蘭共和國垮臺。

And so this time it was a bit difference between other protests.

所以這一次的抗議與以往有些不同。

However, the regime seems to think, Daniel, that the correct strategy is to completely crack down on these protests.

不過，政權似乎認為，Daniel，正確的策略是徹底鎮壓這些抗議。

你認為恐懼已經佔據了主導嗎？

不，這是一種斷絕後路的策略。

And I think also for the regime, it's become more and more clear that there is no way back.

我也認為，對這個政權來說，越來越清楚的是，已經沒有回頭路了。

What happened last January was a magnitude of bloodshed that, that no one can, can ignore.

去年一月發生的事，那種血腥程度，是沒有人能夠忽視的。

And you see, even though at the moment there's no protest going on these days, mark not only the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, but

而且你看，雖然這幾天沒有抗議活動，但這不僅是齋戒月開始，

所以通常在中東，尤其是在什葉派傳統裡，一個人去世後的40天，你會再次紀念那個人。

in particular in the shia tradition, the 40 days after the death of the demise of a person, then you commemorate that person again.

而這個政權非常緊張，擔心這些日子會再次引發抗議。

And the regime was extremely nervous that these days would spark again protests.

所以你聽到了一些，比如說政府官員或一般官員的含蓄聲明，他們甚至承認在鎮壓抗議時，有人被槍擊頭部身亡。

So you heard implicit statements from, let's say, government officials or officials in general, who even admitted that during the crackdowns of the protests, people had been killed with gunshots in their heads.

舉例來說，德黑蘭其中一個最大墓園的負責人，他畢竟是官員，他就承認了這件事。

For example, the director of one of the largest cemeteries in Tehran, who is, after all, an official, he admitted that.

所以，當然，政權的說法是，這一切都是恐怖分子和外國代理人煽動的。

So, of course, you have the regime narrative that this was all incited by terrorists and by foreign agents.

這些我們現在聽到的老套故事，還有被迫認罪。

The usual stories that we hear now, we hear forced confessions.

我們還有革命法院系統，想向自己的支持者展示他們已經掌控了局勢。

We have the revolutionary court system in place that wants to demonstrate to its own followers that they have the situation under control.

But you can see that the regime and regime officials are extremely nervous when it comes to the social situation.

不過你可以看到，政權和政權官員對於社會局勢都非常緊張。

I think it's also understandable that at the moment, nobody dares to go out on the streets at night.

我想這也很能理解，現在這個時候，沒有人敢在晚上出門。

但對許多人來說，這只是又一波罷了。

And we've seen it in the last couple of years, that every time there is a new protest wave, it has a bigger impact and there's more and more people and the crackdown is more violent.

而且我們過去幾年也看到了，每次有新的抗議浪潮，影響就越大，參與的人也越多，鎮壓也越血腥。

And then the end, you can ask, like, how long is the regime willing to apply that strategy?

然後最後，你可以問，像是，政權願意執行這個策略多久？

There is one significant factor that we also have to mention in this particular context, Hans, and

有一個重要的因素，我們在這個特定脈絡下也必須提到的，Hans，

that is the President of the United States who has openly expressed a desire of a regime change in Iran.

那就是美國總統公開表達了希望伊朗政權更迭的意願。

我們都看到了委內瑞拉發生了什麼事。

Do you think that these warships are setting the conditions for a possible strike by the US against Iran?

你認為這些戰艦是在為美國可能對伊朗發動攻擊創造條件嗎？

Well, I mean, the warship sets the conditions for a military pressure on the regime to compromise.

嗯，我的意思是，戰艦為政權在軍事壓力下妥協創造了條件。

So what is here discussed is that there are two different agreements that are supposed to be reached.

所以這裡討論的是，有兩份不同的協議應該要達成。

The Iranian side wants to reach an agreement on the nuclear toast.

伊朗方面希望就核協議達成協議。

And the US side so far says it has to be the nuclear issue, it has to be the ballistic missiles, and

而美國方面到目前為止表示，必須是核問題，必須是彈道飛彈，還有

has to be the relationship with your proxies.

Now, the problem I see is that the tactic of the Iranian side is simply to string out these negotiations as long as possible.

現在，我看到的問題是，伊朗方面的策略就是盡可能拖延這些談判。

They've now had negotiations about the principles of the negotiations, although it's the same set of individuals that met last time for five times in summer 2025.

他們現在已經就談判原則進行了談判，儘管是同一批人在 2025 年夏天見了五次面。

So what principles are we actually talking about if that hadn't been agreed in five meetings in 2025?

那麼，如果 2025 年五次會議沒有達成協議，我們實際上在談論什麼原則呢？

I don't know what principles supposed to be agreed.

The real risk here from Iranian domestic perspective is that the difference between women, Life, Freedom in 2022 and this time was that a.

從伊朗國內來看，真正的風險在於，2022 年的「女性、生命、自由」運動和這次的差別在於，

It is not about social or political issues.

Loss of control over inflation and your currency.

That is something the regime cannot solve on its own unless it gets a cash infusion from the outside.

這是政權自己無法解決的問題，除非從外部獲得資金挹注。

Which means the usual tactic is you repress the with violence, increasing violence every time, but

這意味著，一貫的策略就是用暴力鎮壓，每次都加劇暴力，但是

For example, in 2022, you increase the punishment for violations of the hijab law, but

例如，2022 年，你加重了違反頭巾法的懲罰，但是

you cease controlling of the hijab law in all of the major cities is not working now because there's simply no cash left unless they get cash from the outside.

你現在在所有主要城市都停止執行頭巾法，因為根本沒有錢了，除非他們從外部獲得資金。

Further, that they actually also may need that compromise and may need a nuclear deal.

再者，他們可能也需要妥協，也需要核協議。

But for Donald Trump, past nuclear talks with Iran went nowhere.

但對唐納·川普來說，過去與伊朗的核談判毫無進展。

And he's ready to ramp up pressure on Iran's clerical regime to the maximum, even hinting he'd be willing to use military force if necessary.

他準備將對伊朗神權政權的壓力提升到最高，甚至暗示必要時願意動用軍事力量。

The US Is determined its president, Donald Trump, wants regime change in Iran, and

美國決心，其總統唐納·川普，想要伊朗的政權更迭，而且

the use of military force is not off the table.

動用軍事力量的選項並未排除。

Well, it seems like that would be the best thing that could happen.

嗯，這似乎是可能發生的最好的事情。

For 47 years, they've been talking and talking and talking.

47年來，他們一直在談、談、談。

In the meantime, we've lost a lot of lives while they talk.

在此期間，我們損失了許多生命，而他們卻在談判。

But the regime in Tehran is also flexing its muscles, staging a naval maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil trade routes, and

但德黑蘭的政權也在展現實力，在荷姆茲海峽進行海軍演習，這是世界上最重要的石油貿易路線之一，而且

And it appears Tehran is rebuilding missile positions targeted by last summer's US Military strikes targeting Iran's military and nuclear program.

而且看來德黑蘭正在重建飛彈陣地，這是去年夏天美國軍事打擊伊朗軍事和核計畫的目標。

The words used by the country's leader are defiant.

該國領導人使用的言論充滿挑釁。

Americans should know that if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war.

美國人應該知道，如果他們這次發動戰爭，將會是一場區域戰爭。

This open threat is also directed at Israel, Iran's other arch enemy.

這項公開威脅也是針對伊朗的另一個頭號敵人以色列。

Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that Iran must not be allowed to possess enriched uranium.

總理納坦雅胡堅持認為，絕不能允許伊朗擁有濃縮鈾。

Just how likely is an open confrontation with Iran?

與伊朗發生公開對抗的可能性有多大？

So we just heard from Hans what the US Is actually pursuing in these Negotiations with Iran.

所以我們剛才聽漢斯說了美國在這些與伊朗的談判中實際上追求的是什麼。

Regime change is not officially part of those intentions.

政權更迭並非官方的意圖之一。

Do you think that the actions we're seeing by the US Right now go in that direction, or that it's really just about the nuclear deal, the military power and ballistic missiles and the proxy wars?

你認為美國現在的這些行動是否朝這個方向發展，還是真的只是關於核協議、軍事力量、彈道飛彈和代理人戰爭？

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美軍施壓伊朗，政權更迭是真實目的嗎？ | 直說 (U.S. military pressure on Iran – is regime change the real objective? | To the Point)

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