Name: 為何烏克蘭突然決定入侵俄羅斯？！ (Why Ukraine Suddenly Decided to Invade Russia)
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T17:21:58.000Z
Duration: 37 min 40 s

The war in Ukraine has been raging on for more than two and a half years now, with little end in sight.

烏克蘭的戰爭已經打了兩年半多了，似乎還看不到盡頭。

程度副詞

But just a few weeks ago, in the 895th day after Russia launched its initial full scale invasion of the country, the Ukrainians did something that is completely changing the course of this entire conflict.

但就在幾週前，也就是俄羅斯發動全面入侵的第895天，烏克蘭人做了一件徹底改變這場衝突走向的事。

轉承詞

Because on 6th August 2024, it was the Ukrainian army that flipped the script of this war by launching their own invasion of Russia, shifting themselves into the role of the invading army for once, after fighting for years on the defensive on their own territory.

因為在2024年8月6日，烏克蘭軍隊透過入侵俄羅斯，翻轉了這場戰爭的劇本，讓他們終於有機會扮演侵略者的角色，而不是像過去幾年一樣，一直在自己的領土上防禦。

Early that morning, after weeks to months of quietly preparing and concentrating their forces, the Ukrainian army began crossing the border from Ukraine's Sumy province into Russia's Kursk Province in a major surprise attack that as up to this video's writing, met little resistance.

當天清晨，經過數週到數月的祕密準備和集結兵力後，烏克蘭軍隊開始從烏克蘭的蘇梅省越過邊境進入俄羅斯的庫爾斯克省，發動了一場重大的突襲，直到本影片撰寫時，幾乎沒有遇到抵抗。

Since then, as many as 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers and hundreds of armored vehicles have invaded Russia's Kursk province.

自那以來，多達一萬五千名烏克蘭阿兵哥和數百輛裝甲車輛已經入侵了俄羅斯的庫爾斯克省。

And they've punched roughly 20 miles deep and 40 miles wide into the country in only the first 10 days of the attack.

在攻擊的最初10天內，他們就深入了俄羅斯約20英里，廣度達40英里。

The capturing more than 70 Russian villages in the process and coming to occupy an area roughly 1,000 square kilometers in size, an amount of land that's roughly equivalent to the size of Hong Kong.

在此過程中，他們佔領了超過70個俄羅斯村莊，佔據了約1000平方公里的土地，這差不多等於香港的大小。

And while that might not initially sound like very much, that is a lightning fast advancement compared to what's been happening elsewhere in the war over the past two years of attritional trench warfare in the east.

雖然這聽起來可能不多，但與過去兩年東線消耗戰的進展相比，這是一個閃電般的快速推進。

For context, in only the first 10 days of their offensive in the Kursk province, the Ukrainians ended up capturing about as much land from Russia as the Russians have captured from Ukraine this entire year to date since the start of January, over the past nearly nine months of warfare at enormous costs in both lives and machinery, which is all rapidly evolving into a major embarrassment for the Kremlin.

作為參考，在庫爾斯克省的攻勢最初10天內，烏克蘭從俄羅斯手中奪取的土地，幾乎等於俄羅斯今年以來（從一月開始的將近九個月）從烏克蘭手中奪取的土地總和，而這付出了巨大的生命和機械代價，這對克里姆林宮來說是一個重大的尷尬。

Already, nearly 200,000 Russian civilians have been given mandatory evacuation orders to leave their homes for safety further behind the front front, while the border provinces of both Kursk and Belgorod have each declared federal emergencies in light of the attack.

目前，已有近二十萬俄羅斯平民接獲強制撤離命令，要求他們為了安全撤離家園，前往後方地區，同時庫爾斯克和別爾哥羅德邊境省份都因這次攻擊宣佈進入聯邦緊急狀態。

And as many as 2,000 Russian soldiers have already been captured as prisoners of war and taken back across the border to Ukraine.

而且有高達兩千名俄羅斯阿兵哥已被俘虜，成為戰俘並被帶回烏克蘭邊境。

This major Ukrainian attack in Kursk is very historically significant for many reasons, but

這次在庫爾斯克地區烏克蘭發動的重大攻擊，基於許多原因都具有重大的歷史意義，但

to only name a few, it is the biggest armed invasion of foreign troops into Russia since the Second World War.

僅舉幾例來說，這是第二次世界大戰以來，外國軍隊對俄羅斯發動的最大規模武裝入侵。

While it is also the first time in history that a nuclear weapons armed state has suffered a major hostile invasion of its sovereign territory, which is testing the very limits of what we understand about escalation.

同時，這也是史上第一次有擁核國家遭受其主權領土遭受重大敵意入侵，這正在測試我們對局勢升級的理解極限。

So what are Ukraine's goals and objectives with launching this unprecedented surprise attack into Russia?

那麼，烏克蘭發動這次前所未有的突襲俄羅斯的目標和目的是什麼？

What does Ukraine hope to achieve by invading and occupying Russian territory?

烏克蘭希望透過入侵和佔領俄羅斯領土來達成什麼目標？

How did Russia's intelligence agencies fail to predict this attack and how did Russia's army fail to adequately prepare for it?

俄羅斯的情報機構為何未能預測到這次攻擊，俄羅斯的軍隊又為何未能充分準備？

And how is this whole series of events becoming one of the most significant turning points in the biggest wars seen in Europe since 1945?

而這一連串事件，又如何成為自1945年以來歐洲所見最大戰爭中最重大的轉捩點之一？

To begin to understand the answers to these questions, you first need to understand how the horrible war in Ukraine has been developing for both sides over the past year since the start of 2024.

要開始理解這些問題的答案，你首先需要了解自2024年初以來，烏克蘭這場可怕的戰爭在過去一年裡是如何為雙方發展的。

Throughout the second half of the previous year in 2023, the Ukrainian army carried out a major counteroffensive operation against the Russians, primarily in the southern Zaporizhia province, with the ultimate objective of of driving across the Russian lines and reaching the coast of the Sea of Azov, thereby splitting the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine in half in the process.

在 2023 年下半年，烏克蘭軍隊對俄羅斯發動了一場大規模的反攻行動，主要在南部札波羅熱省，最終目標是穿越俄軍防線抵達亞速海沿岸，從而將俄羅斯佔領的烏克蘭地區一分為二。

They were heavily armed with Western supplied weapons for this attack, but

他們為這次攻擊配備了大量西方供應的武器，但

as the Russians were anticipating a Ukrainian attack in this direction, they smashed themselves against very heavily fortified Russian positions in the area and ultimately failed to make very much ground and likely suffered enormous casualties in the process.

由於俄羅斯預料到烏克蘭會朝這個方向進攻，他們的攻勢在該地區被俄羅斯堅固的防線所阻擋，最終未能取得多大進展，過程中可能遭受了巨大的傷亡。

The New York Times reported that as much as 20% of the weapons and vehicles the Ukrainians committed to the 2023 counteroffensive were destroyed in it, while the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the Ukrainians suffered more than 90,000 casualties during the whole campaign, although those numbers are heavily disputed and Western sources like the Institute for the Study of War consider those losses to be implausibly high.

《紐約時報》報導稱，烏克蘭在 2023 年反攻中投入的武器和車輛高達 20% 在戰鬥中被摧毀，而俄羅斯國防部則聲稱烏克蘭在整個戰役中遭受了超過 90,000 人次的傷亡，儘管這些數字備受爭議，像戰爭研究所 (Institute for the Study of War) 這樣的西方消息來源認為這些損失高得令人難以置信。

Regardless, Ukraine failed to meet any of its objectives during the 2023 counteroffensive and they burned through a huge amount of resources and manpower even trying, which forced them to shift back to the defensive for 2024 and fight against the Russians in a brutal attritional style of warfare instead.

無論如何，烏克蘭在 2023 年的反攻中未能達成任何目標，並且在嘗試過程中耗費了大量的資源和人力，這迫使他們在 2024 年轉為防禦，並以殘酷的消耗戰風格與俄羅斯作戰。

Since then, throughout 2024, Ukraine has struggled deeply with both chronic manpower and equipment shortages after two and a half years of horrific trench warfare that has likely resulted in a minimum of 200,000 Ukrainian military casualties, both killed and wounded since the invasion began.

從那時起，在 2024 年的整個過程中，烏克蘭在兩年半的慘烈戰壕戰之後，一直深陷於長期的人力和裝備短缺困境，自入侵開始以來，烏克蘭軍隊的傷亡人數（包括陣亡和受傷）可能已至少達到 200,000 人。

4 Finding new volunteers for the Ukrainian armed forces voluntarily has become more and more challenging as time has gone on, while draft dodging has also become more common as well.

隨著時間的推移，為烏克蘭武裝部隊尋找新志願者的過程變得越來越困難，而逃避徵兵的情況也變得更加普遍。

In November of 2023, the BBC estimated that 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age had fled the country abroad over the past two years since the Russian invasion began, with most of them having slipped over the western borders into Poland and Slovakia.

在 2023 年 11 月，BBC 估計，自俄羅斯入侵開始的過去兩年裡，有 650,000 名處於服役年齡的烏克蘭男性逃往國外，其中大部分人悄悄越過西部邊境進入波蘭和斯洛伐克。

The despite the Ukrainian government's total ban on all fighting age men from being able to leave the country.

儘管烏克蘭政府完全禁止所有處於服役年齡的男性離開該國。

And this shrinking pool of manpower for the army has been undermining the remaining soldiers morale in multiple ways, most notably in terms of troop rotations at the front.

而這不斷縮小的人力池，正以多種方式削弱著剩餘阿兵哥計程車氣，尤其是在前線的輪調方面。

Early on into the war, when Ukraine had significantly more volunteers, soldiers were able to be rotated out of the front about every two weeks and were able to enjoy an entire week off.

在戰爭初期，當時烏克蘭志願者人數眾多，阿兵哥大約每兩週就能輪調一次，並且能享有整整一週的休息時間。

But now in 2024, with fewer numbers, frontline Ukrainian soldiers are enduring an average of a month at the continually with only four days of rest in between, significantly affecting their ability to keep fighting effectively.

但到了 2024 年，由於人數銳減，前線的烏克蘭阿兵哥平均要輪守一個月，中間只有四天的休息時間，這嚴重影響了他們有效作戰的能力。

In order to try and address the manpower shortage, the Ukrainian government has already adopted several reforms this year, such as by lowering the military draft age for men down from 27 years old to 25 years old, allowing most of the country's prison population except for the most serious offenders to enlist with the armed forces in exchange for early release.

為了設法解決人力短缺的問題，烏克蘭政府今年已經採取了幾項改革，例如將男性的徵兵年齡從 27 歲降至 25 歲，並允許大部分囚犯（最嚴重的罪犯除外）透過加入軍隊換取提前釋放。

And In May of 2024, the Ukrainian government also cancelled all of its consular services for all male Ukrainian citizen abroad aged between 18 and 60, including canceling all renewals of passports in an attempt to force more Ukrainian men living abroad to return back to the country again and potentially face conscription.

到了 2024 年 5 月，烏克蘭政府也取消了所有年齡介於 18 至 60 歲的海外男性公民的領事服務，包括取消所有護照換發，試圖迫使更多居住在海外的烏克蘭男性回國，並可能面臨徵兵。

And in terms of artillery alone, the Ukrainians were getting outgunned by the Russians and artillery all across the front line by as much as 20 to 1 before April of this year when a new $60 billion US military aid package for Ukraine finally passed through the US Congress.

僅就火砲而言，在今年 4 月美國國會終於通過一項價值 600 億美元的對烏克蘭軍事援助計畫之前，烏克蘭在前線的火砲數量上，被俄羅斯壓制了高達 20 比 1。

But even after that, as recently as August of 2024, the Ukrainians have still been getting outgunned in artillery shells along the front line by a ratio of about 8 to 1.

但即使在那之後，到了 2024 年 8 月，烏克蘭在前線的砲彈數量上，仍然以大約 8 比 1 的比例被俄羅斯壓制。

These manpower and supply issues for Ukraine, on top of the failure of their 2023 counteroffensive, shifted the momentum of the war in the eyes of many back over to the Russians again across 2024 and since the start of the year the Russians have managed to continually make slow but steady and methodical gains across the eastern front with their superior advantages in both firepower and manpower.

烏克蘭面臨的人力和物資問題，加上他們 2023 年反攻的失敗，讓許多人認為在 2024 年戰爭的勢頭又轉向了俄羅斯，並且自年初以來，俄羅斯憑藉其在火力與人力上的優勢，在東線持續緩慢但穩定且有條不紊地推進。

Since the start of the year, the Russians have thrown hundreds of thousands of their soldiers against the Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk province in the east, and

自年初以來，俄羅斯已在東部的頓內茨克省向烏克蘭的防禦陣地投入了數十萬阿兵哥，

They've gained nearly 1,200 square kilometers of territory in the process, including the significant capture of Avdiivka that was accomplished In February of 2024, a major suburb of the city of Donetsk that had a pre war population of 31,000 people.

並在此過程中佔領了近 1,200 平方公里的領土，包括在 2024 年 2 月佔領了戰前人口為 31,000 人的頓內茨克市主要郊區阿夫迪夫卡。

Since then, the Russians have methodically advanced at enormous cost across an axis in the Donetsk province, towards the towns of Chasivyar, Kostiantynivka, Toretsk and New York in the north, and

此後，俄羅斯在頓內茨克省的軸線上，以巨大的代價有條不紊地向北部的恰索夫亞爾、科斯強丁尼夫卡、託雷茨克和紐約鎮推進，

towards the highly strategic town of Pokrovsk in the center.

朝著戰略重鎮波克羅夫斯克前進。

With a pre war population of around 60,000 residents, Pokrovsk is a major town and a highly important logistical center for the Ukrainian army as it sits precisely on the highway T054 which links several other currently Ukrainian held cities in Donetsk like Konstantinivka and Chasiv Yar and Kramatorsk and Sloviansk further to the north as it currently stands.

波克羅夫斯克戰前人口約有六萬人，是烏克蘭軍隊一個重要的後勤中心，因為它正好位於 T054 高速公路上，這條公路連接了頓內茨克省內其他幾個烏克蘭控制的城市，像是科斯強丁尼夫卡、恰索夫亞爾，以及更北邊的克拉馬託爾斯克和斯拉維揚斯克。

As of mid to late August 2024, when I made this video, the Russian army has punched a beam within only 13km of Pokrovsk and if they succeed in capturing it, it will sever one of Ukraine's primary highways that they use to supply their forces in Konstantinivka and Chasiv Yar.

到了 2024 年 8 月中下旬，也就是我製作這支影片的時候，俄羅斯軍隊已經在距離波克羅夫斯克僅 13 公里的地方打開了一個突破口，如果他們成功佔領，將會切斷烏克蘭用來補給科斯強丁尼夫卡和恰索夫亞爾部隊的主要高速公路之一。

And then if the Russians are able to capture those under supplied towns near next, their path will become fully opened to advance on the major cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the north next, which are the final two major cities in the Donetsk province that continue to remain under Ukrainian control outside of Russian occupation, each of them with pre war populations of more than 100,000 people.

而如果俄羅斯能夠佔領這些補給困難的城鎮，他們就能夠順利地向北推進，進攻頓內茨克省內最後兩個由烏克蘭控制、未被俄羅斯佔領的主要城市：克拉馬託爾斯克和斯拉維揚斯克，這兩個城市戰前人口都超過十萬人。

If Russia ultimately succeeds in capturing these final two cities in Donetsk, then they will effectively complete their occupation of the entire Donetsk province, and

如果俄羅斯最終成功佔領這兩個城市，他們就等於完成了對整個頓內茨克省的佔領，

it will become very difficult for the Ukrainians to then eject them from it militarily.

對烏克蘭來說，屆時將很難再從軍事上將俄羅斯驅逐出去。

Especially when considering that Russia already effectively controls the entirety of the neighboring Luhansk province as well.

尤其別忘了，俄羅斯其實已經控制了鄰近的盧甘斯克省。

It all starts with Russia's capture of Pokrovsk, and

這一切都始於俄羅斯佔領波克羅夫斯克，

if they're successful there, it could eventually lead to Russia's full control and occupation of the entire Donbas region next, a major wartime goal of the Kremlin's and which could then lead to Moscow focusing their army's next moves on pursuing their other major wartime objectives in the southern theater, completing their occupations of the provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson too, all of which Russia has already unilaterally declared to have annexed and declared to be core Russian territories.

如果他們在那裡得手，最終可能導致俄羅斯完全控制並佔領整個頓巴斯地區，這也是克里姆林宮一個重要的戰爭目標，之後俄羅斯就可能將重心轉移到南部戰線，完成對扎波羅熱和赫爾松省的佔領，這些地區俄羅斯都已經單方面宣佈併吞，並視為俄羅斯的核心領土。

And at the same time as this major Russian push towards Pokrovsk has been ongoing, the Russians also opened up another new front in the war in May of 2024 when they launched a renewed invasion of Ukraine's Kharkiv province in the north, with only moderate gains in success.

在俄羅斯推進波克羅夫斯克的同時，他們也在 2024 年 5 月開闢了新的戰線，對烏克蘭北部的哈爾科夫省發動了新的入侵，但成效僅屬一般。

And as a result of all of these huge Russian offensives in 2024.

而在俄羅斯於 2024 年發動了所有這些大規模攻勢之後。

The scale of the fighting that's been going on throughout Ukraine this year has been at its most intense level of the entire war, especially across this summer, even more so than at the beginning of the invasion in early 2022.

今年烏克蘭各地戰鬥的規模，達到了整個戰爭中最激烈的程度，尤其是在今年夏天，甚至比 2022 年初入侵時還要激烈。

Russian casualties alone along the front line are estimated by Western sources to have been more than a thousand soldiers lost per day on average since May of this year, a rate of losses that is comparable to some of the most ferocious combat seen during the Second World War.

據西方消息來源估計，自今年五月以來，僅前線的俄羅斯傷亡人數，平均每天就超過一千名阿兵哥，這個損失率可與第二次世界大戰中最慘烈的戰鬥相媲美。

By comparison, American forces during the brutal Battle of Okinawa against the Japanese in 1945, the bloodiest and fiercest battle fought during the entirety of the Pacific theater of the war, suffered only around 600 casualties per day in combat on the island, which implies that the current state of the war going on in the east of Ukraine is bloodier and more ferocious than even that terrible battle was for the Americans.

相較之下，美國軍隊在 1945 年對日軍進行的殘酷沖繩戰役中，太平洋戰區最血腥、最激烈的戰鬥，每天在島上戰鬥中僅遭受約 600 名傷亡，這意味著目前烏克蘭東部戰況，比那場可怕的戰鬥對美國人來說，更加血腥和慘烈。

It is truly world war levels of combat that hasn't been seen in Europe in more than 80 years.

這真的是歐洲八十多年來未曾見過的，世界大戰等級的戰鬥。

And the fighting has been so brutal here that you can now clearly see the scar across eastern Ukraine from space that marks the current position of the frontline.

這裡的戰鬥是如此殘酷，你現在可以從太空中清楚地看到東烏克蘭的戰線疤痕，標示著目前前線的位置。

And as Russia has continued gaining ground against the Ukrainians throughout the year, there has become a growing narrative, both in Ukraine itself and in the rest of the world, that against its much larger opponent, Ukraine is supposedly destined to lose eventually in this attritional style of warfare that inherently favors the country with the larger pools of manpower and equipment to pull from, and

隨著俄羅斯在今年持續在烏克蘭取得進展，烏克蘭國內和世界各地都出現了一種論調，認為面對體型龐大的對手，烏克蘭最終註定會輸掉這場本質上對擁有更多人力和裝備的國家有利的消耗戰，

that as a result, Kyiv should supposedly sue for peace sooner rather than later.

是以，基輔應該早點尋求和平。

In June of 2024, with the momentum seemingly on his side, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, finally set out his own terms to begin peace negotiations with Ukraine.

2024 年 6 月，俄羅斯總統普丁似乎掌握了主動權，終於提出了與烏克蘭展開和平談判的條件。

He demanded that all Ukrainian forces withdraw from the territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, just to even start negotiations, and

他要求所有烏克蘭軍隊撤出盧甘斯克、頓內茨克、扎波羅熱和赫爾松的領土，作為談判的起點，

that Ukraine would have to agree to permanently cede all of these territories in their administrative entireties to Russia, despite Russia not yet fully controlling all of the territories.

也就是說，烏克蘭必須同意永久將這些地區的全部行政區域割讓給俄羅斯，儘管俄羅斯實際上尚未完全控制所有這些地區。

He also demanded that Ukraine would have to recognize the loss of Crimea as well, and

他也要求烏克蘭必須承認克里米亞的喪失，並且

formally adopt a status of permanent neutrality and irrevocably abandon its ambitions to join the NATO alliance.

正式採取永久中立的地位，並不可撤銷地放棄加入北約聯盟的野心。

This offer was immediately rejected by the Ukrainian government, which so far continues to assert that peace will only be possible if and when all Russian forces leave from Ukraine's internationally recognized territory and Ukrainian sovereignty is fully restored across all of its pre2014 borders, including Crimea.

這項提議被烏克蘭政府立即拒絕，烏克蘭政府至今仍堅持，只有在所有俄羅斯軍隊撤離烏克蘭國際公認的領土，並且烏克蘭的主權在 2014 年前邊界（包括克里米亞）完全恢復後，和平才有可能實現。

But that doesn't mean that international pressure on Ukraine to begin making concessions to Russia hasn't been growing.

但這並不代表國際社會要求烏克蘭開始向俄羅斯做出讓步的壓力沒有在增加。

A month later, In July of 2024, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, visited Ukraine's President Zelenskyy in Kyiv and pleaded with him to accept a ceasefire deal with Russia along the current military frontline in the country, which was again refused.

幾個月後，也就是 2024 年 7 月，匈牙利總理奧班訪問了烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基，並懇求他接受與俄羅斯在該國目前的軍事前線停火協議，但再次被拒絕。

The month before that, in June, Switzerland hosted a major summit on peace in Ukraine that explicitly didn't invite Russia and that saw 78 countries from all around the world all signing a communique that asserted restoring Ukraine's pre2014 borders was the ultimate basis for any lasting peace in the conflict.

在此之前的 6 月，瑞士舉辦了一場關於烏克蘭和平的重要峰會，但沒有邀請俄羅斯，有來自世界各地的 78 個國家簽署了一份聲明，認為恢復烏克蘭 2014 年前的邊界是衝突中任何持久和平的最終基礎。

But many other major countries from around the world did not agree to that and did not sign on to it, including all of the BRICS states besides Russia, like Brazil, India, China and South Africa, in addition to Pakistan, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Thailand, among many others.

但世界上許多其他主要國家對此並不認同，也沒有簽署，包括俄羅斯以外的所有金磚國家，如巴西、印度、中國和南非，以及巴基斯坦、墨西哥、阿拉伯聯合大公國、沙烏地阿拉伯、印尼和泰國等。

At the same time, there's also been growing discontent about continuing to support the Ukrainians in the Western world.

同時，西方世界對繼續支持烏克蘭的國家也越來越不滿。

Donald Trump, who very well may be elected as America's president again in November, has vowed to immediately halt all American military aid to Ukraine if he returns to office again in an attempt to force the Ukrainians to negotiate on an end to the war, a possibility that the Ukrainian army has to consider in their ongoing calculations.

唐納·川普，他很有可能在 11 月再次當選美國總統，他誓言如果他重返辦公室，將立即停止所有美國對烏克蘭的軍事援助，試圖迫使烏克蘭就結束戰爭進行談判，烏克蘭軍隊在其持續的計算中必須考慮到這種可能性。

And at the same time, as the war has raged on in Ukraine for the past two and a half years now without an end in sight, and

同時，烏克蘭的戰爭已經持續了兩年半，而且看不到盡頭，

as the casualties and burdens of the war have continued mounting, war weariness within Ukrainian society has also naturally increased.

隨著戰爭的傷亡和負擔不斷加劇，烏克蘭社會的厭戰情緒也自然地增長。

When the Russian invasion began in early 2022, polling data from the Kyiv Institute of Sociology found that an overwhelming 82% of Ukrainians flatly rejected any consideration that the country should ever surrender any of their territory to Russia in exchange for peace, which remained more or less consistent for the next year and a half through October of 2023.

俄羅斯於 2022 年初入侵時，基輔社會學研究所的民調數據顯示，高達 82% 的烏克蘭人斷然拒絕考慮為了和平而將任何領土割讓給俄羅斯，這在接下來的一年半到 2023 年 10 月期間大致保持一致。

But after the failures of the 2023 counteroffensive and the grinding attritional war in the east that has taken place since then, the numbers of Ukrainians saying that they would consider surrendering territory in exchange for peace have increased dramat to as high as nearly a third of the Ukrainian population by the time of May 2024.

但在 2023 年反攻失敗以及之後東部地區艱苦的消耗戰之後，表示願意割讓領土以換取和平的烏克蘭人比例急劇增加，到 2024 年 5 月時，比例接近烏克蘭總人口的三分之一。

And because of all of this pressure building both within and outside of Ukraine to surrender land to Russia in exchange for peace, and

由於烏克蘭內外都承受著為了和平而向俄羅斯割讓土地的壓力，

after slowly losing ground all throughout the year to Russia in the east, the Ukrainian military leadership likely calculated that they needed to throw down the dice and gamble with a bold attack somewhere to shift this prevailing narrative boost their own morale and to try and reverse their fortunes.

在一整年中，烏克蘭軍隊在東部地區緩慢失去陣地後，很可能計算出他們需要孤注一擲，在某處發動一次大膽的攻擊來扭轉這種普遍的敘事，提振士氣，並試圖扭轉他們的命運。

And sometime this summer, they ultimately decided that launching a major attack into Russia itself would be exactly that high stakes gamble that they needed.

今年夏天，他們最終決定，對俄羅斯本土發動一次重大攻擊，將會是他們需要的、高風險的賭注。

Over the past few years, the Ukrainians have launched a few cross border raids into Russia, but

在過去幾年裡，烏克蘭人對俄羅斯發動了幾次越境襲擊，但

they were always exactly raids like the ones launched in May of 2023 and in March of 2024 into Russia's Belgorod province by only a few hundred fighters, each time in pro Ukrainian militia organizations rather than Ukrainian army soldiers that both times only made small territorial gains and attacks before escaping back over across the border again.

他們總是像 2023 年 5 月和 2024 年 3 月那樣，僅由幾百名戰士對俄羅斯的別爾哥羅德省發動襲擊，每次都是由親烏克蘭的民兵組織發動，而非烏克蘭軍隊阿兵哥，兩次都只取得了小範圍的領土收益和襲擊後便逃回邊境。

A big Ukrainian attack into Russian territory with the objective of hanging onto that territory had never been attempted.

從未嘗試過由烏克蘭發動大規模攻擊進入俄羅斯領土，其目標是佔領並守住該領土。

But as the Ukrainian military planners began scanning around their frontiers over this past summer, they noticed a major vulnerability.

但隨著烏克蘭軍方規劃者在今年夏天開始掃描邊境，他們注意到了一個重大的弱點。

This is a map of current Russian military fortifications that have been built up throughout the front line in Ukraine in the south and the east, and

這張地圖顯示了俄羅斯目前在烏克蘭南部和東部前線，以及

along the northern Russo Ukrainian border stretching into Belarus.

延伸至白俄羅斯的俄烏邊境北部的軍事工事。

This map is sourced from data that's been collected by Brady Afric, an American analyst who maps out Russia's defenses on his website.

這張地圖的資料來源是美國分析師 Brady Afric，他在自己的網站上繪製俄羅斯的防禦工事。

Russia's fortifications along the front line within Ukraine in the south and the east are strong because they're multi layered lines of trenches, minefields and anti tank defenses that were strong enough to block Ukraine's counteroffensive operation here in 2023.

俄羅斯在烏克蘭南部和東部前線的工事之所以堅固，是因為它們是多層次的戰壕、雷區和反坦克防禦，足以阻止烏克蘭在 2023 年的攻勢。

But Ukrainian military planners noticed this vulnerability in the northern section along Ukraine's border with Russia's Kursk province.

但烏克蘭軍方規劃者注意到，在烏克蘭與俄羅斯庫爾斯克省接壤的北部地區存在這個弱點。

Here there were gaps in between the defensive lines and there were far fewer anti tank obstacles, minefields and anti tank ditches than elsewhere.

這裡的防禦線之間有空隙，而且反坦克障礙物、雷區和反坦克戰壕比其他地方少得多。

Presumably just because the Russians weren't anticipating a major Ukrainian attack happening into Russia itself.

這大概是因為俄羅斯沒有預料到烏克蘭會對俄羅斯本土發動重大攻擊。

So for months over the summer, the Ukrainians began quietly redeploying troops and equipment from across the country into their northern Sumy province under the pretense of training and picking up new equipment and slowly built up mass there for an attack into Russia's more lightly defended Kursk province in the process.

是以，在整個夏天，烏克蘭人開始悄悄地將部隊和裝備從全國各地重新部署到他們北部的蘇梅省，藉口是進行訓練和接收新裝備，並在此過程中慢慢集結兵力，準備攻擊俄羅斯防禦較弱的庫爾斯克省。

And even though this buildup of forces was being done in total secrecy, the higher Ukrainian troop concentrations in Sumy still didn't exactly go unnoticed by the Russians.

儘管這次集結部隊是在完全保密的情況下進行的，但蘇梅省烏克蘭部隊的集結仍然沒有完全逃過俄羅斯的眼睛。

After the Ukrainian assault took place in August, Andrei Gurulyov, a member of Russia's parliament and a former high ranking Russian military officer, claimed that a report had been submitted to the Russian military authorities around a month beforehand that that read forces had been detected and that intelligence indicated preparations for an attack.

在八月烏克蘭發動攻擊後，俄羅斯國會議員兼前俄羅斯高級軍官Andrei Gurulyov聲稱，大約一個月前就有一份報告提交給俄羅斯軍方當局，內容指出偵測到部隊並有情報顯示正在準備攻擊。

Nonetheless, as Ukrainian troop movements through the Sumy province towards the active front lines in Kharkiv and the Donbas were pretty common.

不過，由於烏克蘭部隊經常穿越蘇梅省前往哈爾科夫和頓巴斯的戰線。

Russian intelligence appears to have failed to have ever capitalized on that report and to have anticipated an attack coming from this direction.

俄羅斯情報單位似乎未能利用這份報告，也未能預料到會從這個方向發動攻擊。

The secrecy surrounding the attack was so great on the Ukrainian side that only a small handful of top Ukrainian leaders even knew about the operation at all.

這次攻擊的保密程度非常高，烏克蘭方面只有極少數高層領導知道這次行動。

While most of the Ukrainian soldiers who would be participating in the attack weren't even informed about the plan until the very last moment, some of them only a couple days beforehand, the Ukrainian leadership didn't even inform their greatest international supporter, the United States, about the operation at all.

雖然大多數參與攻擊的烏克蘭阿兵哥直到最後一刻才得知計畫，有些人甚至只提前了幾天，但烏克蘭領導層甚至沒有告知他們最大的國際支持者美國這次行動。

Which led to officials in Washington waking up to a huge surprise on the morning of the 6th of August, when they learned that hours beforehand, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers armed with American supplied weapons had just invaded Russia.

這導致華盛頓的官員在八月六日的早晨醒來時大吃一驚，他們得知數小時前，數千名裝備美國武器的烏克蘭阿兵哥剛剛入侵了俄羅斯。

And now, weeks later, the second battle of Kursk rages on atop of the very same battlefield that was fought over between the Germans and the Soviets in that titanic battle of Kursk in 1943.

而現在，數週過去了，第二次庫爾斯克戰役正在1943年德蘇兩軍在那場決定性的庫爾斯克戰役中爭奪的同一片戰場上激烈進行。

And just like how that World War II era battle here proved to be a decisive turning point during that war, so too could this second battle of Kursk in the ongoing Russo Ukrainian War.

就像二戰時期的那場戰役被證明是那場戰爭的決定性轉捩點一樣，正在進行的俄烏戰爭中的第二次庫爾斯克戰役也可能如此。

And while Ukraine's ultimate military objectives related to this offensive into Kursk are still fairly secretive, we have a lot of room to speculate.

雖然烏克蘭這次進攻庫爾斯克的最終軍事目標仍然相當保密，但我們有很多空間可以猜測。

Early on into the attack, there was a lot of speculation that one of Ukraine's primary military objectives was going to be the capture of the small town of Sudzha, located just across the border.

在攻擊初期，很多人猜測烏克蘭的主要軍事目標之一將是佔領邊境對面的小鎮Sudzha。