Name: 川普二任期將如何永遠改變歐洲！ (How Trump's 2nd Term Will Change Europe Forever)
Uploaded: 2026-02-07T17:14:57.000Z
Duration: 36 min 3 s

As you already know by now, the United States reelected Donald Trump to the White House again for a second term that will begin in a couple months after he gets sworn back in office on 20 January 2025.

就像大家現在已經知道的，美國已經選出唐納·川普再次入主白宮，展開他將在 2025 年 1 月 20 日宣誓就職後幾個月開始的第二個任期。

Trump's second term in office will then last for the next four years, through January of 2029, close to the end of this decade, by which point he will be 82 years old.

川普的第二個任期將會持續四年，直到 2029 年一月，接近這個十年的尾聲，屆時他將滿 82 歲。

And during those four years, Trump's powers and influence as America's president will shift the course of world history and American foreign policy in ways that were similar to his first term as president.

而在這四年期間，川普身為美國總統的權力和影響力，將會以類似他第一個任期的模式，改變世界歷史和美國外交政策的走向。

Right now, before he's even retaken office, there is an absolutely enormous amount of speculation about what his return to the White House could ultimately end up meaning.

目前，在他甚至還沒重新上任之前，對於他重返白宮最終會意味著什麼，已經有非常非常多的猜測了。

And anybody who tries to tell you exactly what will happen has no idea what they're talking about, including myself.

任何試圖告訴你確切會發生什麼事的人，都不知道他們在說什麼，包括我自己。

Trump's foreign policy theory's first term was defined by impulsiveness and shifts in unexpected directions, and

川普第一個任期的外交政策理論，其特點是衝動和意想不到的轉變，

his second term will likely be more of the same.

而他的第二個任期很可能也會是這樣。

Therefore, this is all extremely speculative.

是以，這一切都極度充滿猜測。

So please take everything that I'm going to say in this video with a huge grain of salt.

所以請大家對我在這支影片裡接下來要說的任何話，都抱持著極大的懷疑態度。

But with that, I'm going to attempt and explain what I think Trump's return to the White House could end up meaning for American foreign policy, with a particular focus on what that could end up meaning for Europe.

不過，話雖如此，我還是要試著解釋一下，我認為川普重返白宮可能會對美國外交政策帶來什麼影響，特別是這對歐洲又意味著什麼。

First off, let's dive in at what is probably going to be the biggest foreign policy implication for Trump's return to the white Ukraine, the ongoing conflict with Russia and NATO.

首先，我們來談談川普重返白宮後，可能對烏克蘭、與俄羅斯的持續衝突以及北約（NATO）最大的外交政策影響。

For the past several years, as the war between Ukraine and Russia has dragged on, Trump has often been highly critical of the large amount of financial assistance that the United States has provided to Ukraine in order to survive.

過去幾年來，隨著烏克蘭與俄羅斯的戰爭持續不斷，川普經常嚴厲批評美國提供給烏克蘭大量財政援助以求生存。

At a campaign rally in Georgia back in September, Trump labeled Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as the greatest salesman on the earth for his ability to convince the United States to send his country so much money and assistance in the wake of the Russian invasion.

去年九月，川普在喬治亞州的一場競選集會上，稱讚烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基是地球上最偉大的推銷員，因為他能說服美國在他國遭受俄羅斯入侵後，送給他的國家這麼多金錢和援助。

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States has so far to date provided nearly $91 billion worth of combined military, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

根據世界經濟研究所（Kiel Institute for the World Economy）的數據，截至目前為止，美國已向烏克蘭提供了近910億美元的軍事、經濟和人道援助。

So since the Russian invasion began in early 2022, with US military aid representing nearly two thirds of that total amount, at roughly $60 billion.

所以，自2022年初俄羅斯入侵以來，美國軍事援助佔了總金額的近三分之二，約為600億美元。

Now, that number for the military aid to Ukraine is what particularly seems to anger Trump the most, because it's about half of the total foreign military aid that Ukraine has so far received from everywhere abroad.

現在，這筆給烏克蘭的軍事援助數字似乎特別讓川普生氣，因為這大約是烏克蘭迄今為止從國外收到的總軍事援助的一半。

The European Union, by contrast, has only provided the Ukrainians worth about $45 billion worth of military aid since the invasion began for a war that's taking place directly at their own doorstep.

相比之下，歐盟自入侵開始以來，僅向烏克蘭提供了約450億美元的軍事援助，而這場戰爭就發生在他們家門口。

Though in terms of overall aid, when factoring in economic and humanitarian assistance, the EU has provided much more to the Ukrainians overall than the Americans have, at a total of about $133 billion in total.

不過，就整體援助而言，若將經濟和人道援助納入考量，歐盟總共向烏克蘭提供的援助比美國多，總計約1330億美元。

Nonetheless, Trump has long argued in public during his speeches that the US Is shouldering too much of the financial burden in continuing to support Ukraine during its war, and

儘管如此，川普長期以來在公開演講中主張，美國在持續支持烏克蘭戰爭的過程中，承擔了過多的財政負擔，而

that Europe should take on an even greater share of the financial support than it has already.

歐洲應該承擔比現在更多的財政支持。

And with the idea of continuing to sen more American aid getting less and less popular within the Republican Party all the time that will now largely control the whole US Government for the next two years, there is plenty of room to believe that a second Trump administration will likely significantly reduce American aid to Ukraine, if not even cut it down to zero altogether.

而且，隨著共和黨內部越來越多人不贊成繼續提供美國援助，而共和黨在接下來的兩年將主要掌控美國政府，是以有充分的理由相信，第二個川普政府可能會大幅削減對烏克蘭的美國援助，甚至可能歸零。

But that's not necessarily what might end up happening, though Trump has famously promised that he will somehow end the war in Ukraine within the first 24 hours of him assuming the presidency in January by getting together Ukraine and Russia's leadership and making a deal between them.

不過，這不一定會發生，儘管川普曾公開承諾，他將在就任總統的隔年一月的第一天，透過讓烏克蘭和俄羅斯的領導人會面並達成協議，來結束烏克蘭戰爭。

Trump's history of speaking very highly about Russia's president Vladimir Putin is very well known, and

川普過去曾高度讚揚俄羅斯總統普丁，這眾所周知，而且

the two men are believed to have spoken directly with one another as many as seven times just since Trump left office after his first term.

據信，自川普卸任第一任期以來，兩人之間就直接通話了多達七次。

But less well known have been Trump's generally positive comments about Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well, despite the two leaders having a bit of a troubled history with one another.

但較少人知道的是，川普對烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基的評價普遍也相當正面，儘管兩人之間曾有些不愉快的歷史。

Trump was impeached in 2019 because of a scandal that involved him holding up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure Zelenskyy to uncover dirt on his chief political rival, Joe Biden, that he wanted to use to influence the 2020 election.

川普在2019年遭到彈劾，因為他曾扣留數億美元的美國軍事援助給烏克蘭，目的是要脅迫澤倫斯基找出他主要政治對手喬·拜登的黑料，以便影響2020年的選舉。

In more recent times, however, Trump has deridedly referred to Zelenskyy as the world's greatest salesman.

不過，近年來，川普曾嘲諷地稱澤倫斯基是「全世界最偉大的推銷員」。

But he has also personally met with Zelenskyy as recently as this September.

但他也在今年九月親自會見了澤倫斯基。

That was described by Zelenskyy himself as being positive, and

澤倫斯基本人形容這次會面是正面的，而且

within only a few hours of Trump's most recent election victory, Zelenskyy telephoned Trump to congratulate him, and

在川普最近一次贏得選舉的幾小時內，澤倫斯基就打電話祝賀他了，

Zelenskyy described the following conversation as having been constructive.

澤倫斯基形容接下來的談話是具建設性的。

More than a year ago, during an interview with Fox News back In July of 2023, Trump made the case that he would force a deal to end the war by threatening to sever all American aid to Ukraine, while also simultaneously telling the Russians that he would dramatically increase American aid to Ukraine unless they'd both agree to whatever his deal is.

一年多前，在2023年7月接受Fox News採訪時，川普表示他會透過威脅切斷對烏克蘭的所有美國援助來強迫達成結束戰爭的協議，同時也告訴俄羅斯，除非他們都同意他的協議，否則他會大幅增加美國對烏克蘭的援助。

What exactly Trump's deal to end the war will ultimately look like is unclear right now, but

川普結束戰爭的協議最終會是什麼樣子，現在還不清楚，但

vance outlined a fairly detailed peace plan during an interview a few months ago back in September on the Sean Ryan show, where he was specifically asked about what Trump's plan to end the war might look like.

Vance 在幾個月前9月於Sean Ryan節目上接受採訪時，提出了一個相當詳細的和平計畫，當時他被問到川普結束戰爭的計畫可能會是什麼樣子。

Vance then suggested that Trump's deal would involve freezing the front line in Ukraine wherever it stands at the time of the negotiations, and

Vance 接著提議，川普的協議將涉及在談判時，將烏克蘭的戰線凍結在當時的位置，

that the frontline would then transform into a demilitarized zone in the new de facto border between Ukraine and Russia, similar to other demilitarized zones in the world that froze other conflicts, like between north and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula or between the Greek and Turkish communities across the island of Cyprus.

然後這條戰線將會變成烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間新的事實邊界上的非軍事區，類似於世界上其他凍結了衝突的非軍事區，例如朝鮮半島上的南北韓之間，或賽普勒斯島上的希臘和土耳其社群之間。

This kind of deal would essentially solidify Russia's military gains in the war, but

這種協議基本上會鞏固俄羅斯在戰爭中的軍事所得，但

it would also deny Russia their full objectives.

但這也會讓俄羅斯無法達成他們所有的目標。

Vance also suggested that while what remains of Ukraine beyond the demilitarized zone would still be an independent and sovereign nation, his idea of a deal would also give Russia a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality from what remains of Ukraine as well, blocking Ukraine from joining NATO for either an agreed upon time limit or indefinitely.

Vance 也建議，雖然烏克蘭在非軍事區以外的剩餘地區仍將是一個獨立自主的國家，但他提出的協議也會讓俄羅斯獲得烏克蘭剩餘地區保持中立的保證，阻止烏克蘭加入北約，無論是設定 agreed upon 的時間限制或無限期。

Vance's suggested plan would still leave room for the remainder of Ukraine to establish deeper economic and social ties with Europe, such as through the European Union.

Vance 提出的計畫仍然會為烏克蘭剩餘地區與歐洲建立更深厚的經濟和社會聯繫留有空間，例如透過歐盟。

And it would still be allowed to purchase European and American weapons systems.

而且仍然可以購買歐洲和美國的武器系統。

But there wouldn't be any NATO membership and no treaty obligations towards defending Ukraine from another attack in the future.

但不會有北約會員資格，也沒有條約義務來保護烏克蘭免受未來再次攻擊。

Instead, in order to deter Russia from launching another invasion of the rest of Ukraine in the future, Vance's plan suggested building out a series of fortifications along the new demilitarized zone on the Ukrainian side and staffing the area with international peacekeepers, potentially from either the UN or European states who would volunteer their own troops.

相反地，為了阻止俄羅斯未來再次入侵烏克蘭剩餘地區，Vance 的計畫建議在烏克蘭一側的新非軍事區沿線建造一系列防禦工事，並由國際維和部隊駐守，這些部隊可能來自聯合國或願意派遣自己部隊的歐洲國家。

But no American troops would participate in this interpretation of a deal.

但在這個協議的詮釋中，不會有美國部隊參與。

Ukraine would effectively be divided between a Western and an Eastern Ukraine, with one of the most heavily militarized borders in the world separating them in a situation situation that would look very similar to the end of the Korean War that left the Korean Peninsula divided.

烏克蘭實際上將分裂為西烏克蘭和東烏克蘭，世界上最軍事化的邊界之一將把他們分隔開來，這種情況非常類似於韓戰的結局，導致朝鮮半島分裂。

The critics of this plan from Vance have since blasted it as essentially being surrender terms to the Russians, while proponents of it have argued that it's the only realistic peace option still remaining on the table.

Vance 這項計畫的批評者們至今已猛烈抨擊，認為這基本上是向俄羅斯投降的條款，而支持者則認為這是桌上唯一仍然切實可行的和平選項。

But for one thing, it's unclear if Vance's plan and suggestions are going to end up being the same as Trump's.

但首先，Vance 的計畫和建議是否會與川普的計畫和建議相同，這一點還不清楚。

And for another, it's also far from clear that even if it was the same, if either the Russians or the Ukrainians would even accept it.

而且，即使兩者相同，俄羅斯或烏克蘭是否會接受，這一點也遠不明確。

The spokesperson for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, recently stated during a press briefing in Moscow that Russia's war aims in Ukraine remained unchanged from the most recent peace terms that Putin offered in June of 2024, and

克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫最近在莫斯科的一次新聞發布會上表示，俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭目標與普丁在 2024 年 6 月提出的最新和平條件沒有改變，

that Vance's suggested deal was consequently going to be unacceptable to the Kremlin.

是以，克里姆林宮將無法接受 Vance 的建議協議。

Contrary to what Vance suggested for a deal, Putin's current demand for peace is that Ukraine fully withdraw all of its troops away from the current frontline entirely out of the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

與 Vance 提出的協議不同，普丁目前對和平的要求是烏克蘭必須完全從盧甘斯克、頓內茨克、札波羅熱和赫爾松的現有前線撤出所有部隊。

Ukraine would then have to formally recognize the territorial losses of all four of these provinces in their administrative entireties to Russia, in addition to Crimea, and

烏克蘭將不得不正式承認這四個省份及其行政區域的全部領土損失歸屬俄羅斯，再加上克里米亞，並且

also commit to a constitutional status of permanent neutrality, barring what remains of Ukraine from ever being allowed to join NATO.

還必須承諾永久中立的憲法地位，禁止烏克蘭剩餘地區未來加入北約。

In this scenario, Ukraine would surrender huge amounts of land at the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces that they currently still hold and that Russia hasn't yet even managed to occupy.

在這種情況下，烏克蘭將會放棄他們目前仍佔領且俄羅斯尚未佔領的頓內茨克、札波羅熱和赫爾松省的大量土地。

In addition to their entire heavily fortified frontline that they've spent years constructing, major urban areas around the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, collectively home to more than a million people, would all have to be surrendered, and

除了他們花費數年時間建造的整個重度設防前線外，赫爾松、札波羅熱、克拉馬託爾斯克和斯洛維揚斯克等城市周邊的主要城市地區，這些地區總共居住著超過一百萬人，都必須被放棄，

the fates of those 1 million plus people would be uncertain and likely grim.

而這一百多萬人的命運將是不確定的，而且很可能很嚴峻。

Moreover, surrendering the whole of the Kherson and Zaporizhia provinces would place Russian territorial control and troops onto the west bank of the Dnipro river in large sections of the south, undermining one of Ukraine's biggest geographical barriers against another Russian assault in the future, who would no longer have to focus as much on crossing the river in the south.

此外，放棄整個赫爾松和札波羅熱省將使俄羅斯的領土控制和部隊部署到聶伯河的西岸，尤其是在南部的大部分地區，這將削弱烏克蘭未來抵禦俄羅斯再次襲擊的一大地理屏障，因為俄羅斯將不再需要像過去一樣專注於渡過南部的河流。

And meanwhile, Ukraine also still hasn't abandoned their own terms for peace either that go directly against Vance's suggested deal as well.

而且同時，烏克蘭也還沒放棄他們自己對和平的要求，這也跟 Vance 提出的協議直接相悖。

Ukraine's peace demands continue to be that all Russian forces must fully withdraw back to the 2014 recognized borders of Ukraine, including Crimea and the port of Sevastopol, and

烏克蘭的和平要求依然是所有俄羅斯軍隊必須完全撤退到 2014 年承認的烏克蘭邊界，包括克里米亞和塞凡堡港，並且

then on top of that, that the fully restored Ukraine will then be fully admitted into NATO afterwards.

接著，完全恢復的烏克蘭將會被完全接納加入北約。

So when Trump assumes power as the president in January, and

所以，當 Trump 在一月就任總統，

if he then attempts to make a deal that looks like some kind of variation of what J.D.

如果他試圖達成一個類似 J.D. Vance 九月提出的協議的某種變體，

vance suggested in September, it's unclear if either Russia or Ukraine would actually be willing to compromise on their stated objectives, even with the variation of carrots and sticks that Trump will offer, and

那麼，即使有 Trump 會提供的胡蘿蔔與大棒的變體，俄羅斯或烏克蘭是否真的願意在他們聲明的目標上妥協，這還不清楚，

Like Trump himself suggested back during his Fox News interview in 2023, he may threaten to completely withdraw all American funding to Ukraine if the Ukrainian side rejects his deal, while he may also simultaneously threaten Russia with dramatically increasing American aid to Ukraine if the Russian side rejects his deal too.

就像 Trump 在 2023 年接受 Fox News 採訪時自己說的，如果烏克蘭方面拒絕他的協議，他可能會威脅完全撤銷美國對烏克蘭的所有資助，同時他也可能威脅俄羅斯，如果俄羅斯方面也拒絕他的協議，他將會大幅增加美國對烏克蘭的援助。

But on the face of it, Russia would stand to gain significantly more from this kind of deal than Ukraine would.

但表面上看，俄羅斯從這種協議中獲得的好處會比烏克蘭多得多。

it would still be pressed to effectively surrender roughly 20% of its 2014 recognized territor, while Russia would be granted a reprieve to consolidate the gained territory and to further incorporate all of the conquered land and resources into Russia.

烏克蘭將難以有效割讓約 20% 在 2014 年被承認的領土，而俄羅斯則能喘息並鞏固已佔領的領土，進一步將所有被征服的土地和資源併入俄羅斯。

This is also why at the moment the Russian side of the war is greatly increasing the pace of their attacks all along the front line in an attempt to seize as much territory as physically possible before any potential Trump led negotiations to freeze the front lines where they stand, while they're also undertaking a truly huge effort to try and push the Ukrainians out of all of their occupied areas in Kursk as much as possible possible too, in order to reduce the leverage on the Ukrainian side, Russia would be significantly more hard pressed to agree on freezing the front lines where they stood at if it also included the frontlines in Kursk within Russia proper too, sealing some of Russia's own territory behind the Ukrainian side of the demilitarized zone.

這也是為什麼目前俄羅斯在這場戰爭中正大幅加快沿著前線的攻擊速度，試圖在任何潛在的川普領導的凍結前線談判之前，盡可能多地奪取領土。同時，他們也在大力試圖將烏克蘭軍隊盡可能地趕出庫爾斯克所有被佔領的地區，以減少烏克蘭方面的籌碼。如果談判也包含俄羅斯本土的庫爾斯克前線，俄羅斯將會更難同意凍結前線，因為這將把俄羅斯自己的部分領土劃在烏克蘭控制的非軍事區後面。

And this is why Russia has currently thrown around 12,000 North Korean soldiers and around 38,000 of their own troops against the Ukrainian lines in Kursk to try and push the Ukrainians out from here as much as possible by the time Trump assumes office again in January.

這就是為什麼俄羅斯目前已經投入了約 12,000 名北韓阿兵哥和約 38,000 名俄羅斯部隊在庫爾斯克對抗烏克蘭軍隊，試圖在川普於一月再次上任前，盡可能將烏克蘭軍隊趕出這裡。

If they manage to fully push the Ukrainians out of Kursk by the time Trump takes office, the Ukrainians will have significantly less leverage entering into the Trump led negotiations, and

如果他們能在川普上任前成功將烏克蘭軍隊完全趕出庫爾斯克，烏克蘭在川普領導的談判中將擁有顯著較少的籌碼，

they will be in a much more vulnerable position either way.

無論如何，他們都將處於一個更脆弱的境地。

What is the most clear is that Trump will be hasty and eager to get America out of the Ukraine war and to end Washington's financial commitments to it as quickly as possible.

最清楚的是，川普將急於讓美國退出烏克蘭戰爭，並盡快結束華盛頓對此的財政承諾。

And whatever he ultimately believes will be the quickest way to end America's involvement in the war will likely be the method he will choose.

而他最終認為能最快結束美國參與戰爭的方式，很可能就是他將採用的方法。

And if there's any precedent from Trump's first term in office regarding negotiating an end to a war that can give us some clues as to how this all might go, it would be how Trump handled the negotiations with the Taliban on ending America's war in Afghanistan Frustrated and eager to secure a quick deal ending America's decades of war and huge financial commitments in Afghanistan, Trump in early 2020 simply decided to go over the heads of the US supported government in Afghan and entered directly into negotiations with the Taliban themselves without the presence or input of the Afghan government.

如果川普第一任期內關於結束戰爭的談判有任何可以提供線索的先例，那將是川普處理與塔利班關於結束美國在阿富汗戰爭的談判。川普在 2020 年初對達成一項快速協議以結束美國在阿富汗數十年的戰爭和巨額財政承諾感到沮喪和渴望，他直接繞過了美國支持的阿富汗政府，與塔利班進行了直接談判，阿富汗政府並未在場或提供意見。

Trump then agreed in February of 2020 to fully pull out all American troops from Afghanistan By May of 2021, strategically selected to be after the next presidential election.

川普隨後在 2020 年 2 月同意將所有美軍完全撤出阿富汗，並戰略性地選擇在下次總統選舉之後的 2021 年 5 月完成。

And he then immediately began reducing airstrikes on the Taliban and lifted certain sanctions on them all in exchange for just some vague, unenforceable promises from the Taliban to commit to counterterrorism and agree to certain fighting restrictions.

然後，他立即開始減少對塔利班的空襲，並解除了一些對他們的制裁，以換取塔利班一些模糊、無法執行的承諾，承諾打擊恐怖主義並同意某些戰鬥限制。

But by almost eliminating American airstrikes on the Taliban, Trump's decision undermined the capabilities of the Afghan government security forces, who were then left to fight against the Taliban without critical air support.

但川普幾乎取消了美軍對塔利班的空襲，削弱了阿富汗政府安全部隊的能力，他們在沒有關鍵空中支援的情況下，獨自對抗塔利班。

And the Taliban almost immediately reneged on their agreed upon fighting restrictions and ramped up their attacks on the government instead.

而塔利班幾乎立刻就違背了他們同意的戰鬥限制，反而加強了對政府的攻擊。

Then, after Trump lost the 2020 election in November, he deliberately pulled out thousands more troops from Afghanistan than he'd even originally agreed to do, which essentially left behind a skeleton crew of US Forces in Afghanistan.

接著，在川普於十一月輸掉 2020 年大選後，他故意從阿富汗撤出了比原先協議更多的數千名部隊，這基本上讓阿富汗只剩下骨幹部隊。

That made the situation even more unstable in the face of the increased Taliban offensive, which left the incoming Biden administration with a difficult decision to either reinforce the country with a troop surge to make the situation more stable leading up to the agreed upon handover date, but

這使得在塔利班攻勢加劇的情況下，局勢更加不穩定，讓即將上任的拜登政府面臨一個艱難的決定：是要增兵以穩定局勢，迎接協議中的交接日期，但

face accusations of escalating the conflict and breaking the deal with the Taliban, or not doing that and just hoping for the best.

面臨被指控加劇衝突和破壞與塔利班協議的風險；還是不這麼做，只能祈禱一切順利。

Biden then largely stuck to Trump's previous agreements with the Taliban on the withdrawal timeline and on the dangerous, unstable true productions, and

拜登後來大致上遵守了川普先前與塔利班達成的撤軍時間表，以及危險且不穩定的實際情況，

The Afghan government completely collapsed, the Taliban returned back into power, and

阿富汗政府徹底崩潰，塔利班重新掌權，

Trump managed to somehow win the PR battle by getting the credit as the president who negotiated the peace without receiving any of the blame for the surrender and the collapse that it ultimately resulted in during Biden's administration.

川普卻設法贏得了公關戰，他以達成和平協議的總統身分獲得讚譽，卻沒有為最終導致拜登政府時期發生的投降和崩潰承擔任何責任。

Trump's hasty peace agreement with the Taliban in 2020 that completely sidelined the Afghan government in its interests, therefore set the stage for the Afghan government's complete collapse the following year.

是以，川普在 2020 年與塔利班達成的倉促和平協議，完全無視了阿富汗政府的利益，為隔年阿富汗政府的徹底崩潰埋下了伏筆。

And the question is, if Trump has learned anything from that experience or not.

那問題是，川普從那次經驗學到什麼了沒。

If he hasn't learned anything from it, and

if Trump's hasty deal making legacy with the Taliban is any kind of a guide for how he might handle making a similar deal with Russia and Ukraine, a similar outcome could well be plausible as well as the only possible deal that Trump and his team could offer Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours of him assuming office will be the ceasefire deal that'll freeze the front lines where they stand.

如果川普跟神學士倉促達成協議的歷史，能當作他如何跟俄羅斯和烏克蘭做類似協議的參考，那很可能會出現類似的結果，而且這將是川普和他團隊上任後 24 小時內唯一可能給烏克蘭和俄羅斯的協議，就是凍結前線現狀的停火協議。

And there's the very real possibility that if both Ukraine and Russia refuse those terms, or if Ukraine refuses them and Russia kind of accepts them, or if Russia tries to push harder for Putin's proposed peace offering, Trump may decide to simply go over the heads of the Ukrainians and negotiate with the Kremlin directly on a hasty deal to get America out of the conflict as quickly as possible, just like he did when he went over the Afghan government's heads when he negotiated what for all intents and purposes was a surrender directly with the Taliban in 2020.

而且很有可能，如果烏克蘭和俄羅斯都拒絕這些條件，或者烏克蘭拒絕而俄羅斯接受，又或者俄羅斯試圖更強硬地推動普丁提出的和平提議，川普可能會決定直接繞過烏克蘭人，跟克里姆林宮直接談判，迅速達成協議讓美國退出衝突，就像他當年繞過阿富汗政府，在 2020 年直接跟神學士談判，實質上就是投降一樣。

Were that outcome to happen and the US just completely removed itself from the war altogether, it would be a devastating blow to the Ukrainian war effort.

如果那樣的結果發生，美國完全退出戰爭，對烏克蘭的戰事將是毀滅性的打擊。

And the gap left behind in weapons and supplies worth tens of billions of dollars, could only be realistically filled in by the European Union.

而留下的數百億美元的武器和物資缺口，現實上只能由歐洲聯盟來填補。

The eu, for all of the tremendously huge amount of support that it has already given to Ukraine, would then be left with a very difficult choice on how to proceed.

歐盟，儘管已經對烏克蘭提供了極大量的支援，屆時將面臨一個艱難的抉擇，該如何進行。

The EU could decide to either dramatically increase its own aid to Ukraine to the tune of tens of billions of additional euros at a minimum, or not do that and save the money and see what ends up happening.

歐盟可以選擇大幅增加對烏克蘭的援助，至少增加數百億歐元，或者不這麼做，省下錢來看看會發生什麼。

The ultimate question for Europe, if Europe decides to not step in and fill the gap left behind by the United States, is what exactly are Putin's ultimate intentions regarding Ukraine and the rest of the former Soviet Union?

對歐洲來說，最終的問題是，如果歐洲決定不介入並填補美國留下的缺口，普丁對烏克蘭和前蘇聯其他地區的最終意圖究竟是什麼？

Will Putin's ambitions be limited to his June 2024 peace proposal that demands Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea, with a cut down to size and neutral Ukraine remaining?

普丁的野心會僅限於他 2024 年 6 月的和平提議嗎？該提議要求盧甘斯克、頓內茨克、札波羅熱、赫爾松和克里米亞，並讓烏克蘭縮小規模並保持中立。