Name: 巴瑞·裡特霍茲：大多數投資人忽略的驚人簡單法則！ (The surprisingly simple rules most investors break | Barry Ritholtz)
Uploaded: 2026-02-03T18:29:26.000Z
Duration: 21 min 41 s

基礎被動語態

The odds are stacked against you being a successful stock picker.

成為成功的 stock picker 的機率其實不高。

轉承詞

You know who Warren Buffett or Peter lynch is because they're such outliers.

你之所以知道 Warren Buffett 或 Peter Lynch，是因為他們太 outliers 了。

The rest of us, we're playing the loser's game.

我們其他人，就是在玩 loser's game。

We don't pay attention to costs, we ignore taxes.

We make all of these mistakes that if only we avoided them, we would do so much better.

我們犯了所有這些錯誤，如果我們能避免它們，表現會好很多。

You're going up against every other investor and trader who similarly thinks that they can outsmart the markets.

你要跟所有其他同樣認為自己能 outsmart the markets 的 investor 和 trader 競爭。

History tells us we are simply terrible at playing that game.

歷史告訴我們，我們在這場遊戲裡表現真的很差。

I'm chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

我是 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的 chairman 和 chief investment officer。

我的新書是「如何不要 Invest」。

The ideas, numbers and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them.

那些會摧毀 wealth 的想法、數字和行為，以及如何避免它們。

We want to put our money to work because 20, 30, 40 years from now we're going to stop working and retire.

我們希望讓我們的錢去工作，因為 20、30、40 年後，我們就不工作要 retire 了。

And we're going to need something to pay our bills.

而且我們需要一些東西來支付我們的帳單。

Most of us aren't going to be able to live on just Social Security.

我們大多數人都無法只靠 Social Security 過活。

And so we put our money to work so that it'll compound faster than the rate of inflation.

所以我們讓我們的錢去工作，讓它 compound 得比 inflation 快。

really it's your job as an investor to not interfere with your portfolio's ability to compound over that time.

作為一個 investor，你的工作就是不要幹預你的 portfolio 能夠在那個時間內 compound 的能力。

The loser's game is a concept created by Charlie Ellis in a paper he wrote 30, 40 years ago.

loser's game 是 Charlie Ellis 在 30、40 年前寫的一篇論文裡創造的概念。

Eventually it became a book called Winning the Losers Game and Ellis, legendary guy, chairman of the Yale Endowment, on the board of directors of the Vanguard Group.

最後它變成了一本叫做 Winning the Losers Game 的書，而 Ellis 是傳奇人物，耶魯大學捐贈基金的 chairman，也是 Vanguard Group 的董事會成員。

Ellis noticed that investing and tennis were both very similar in that they're two games in one.

Ellis 發現 investing 和網球非常相似，因為它們都是兩種遊戲。

There's a winner's game and a loser's game.

Well, let's use tennis as Ellis's example.

嗯，我們就用網球來做 Ellis 的例子吧。

The game the professionals play the top.01% of players.

職業選手玩的遊戲，頂尖的 0.01% 的選手。

And then there's the game the rest of us play.

然後還有我們其他人玩的遊戲。

Us 99.9% of of the world who are amateurs.

我們這些佔全世界 99.9% 的業餘人士。

They do fancy drop shots, lots of topspin.

他們會打出漂亮的放小球，還有很多上旋球。

They keep the ball away from their opponent.

That's not how the losers game is played.

我們因為非受迫性失誤而輸球。

We double fault because we're trying to serve too hard.

我們因為想發球太用力而雙發失誤。

We hit the ball long we hit it wide, we hit it into the net.

我們把球打掛線、打出界，或是打到網子裡。

Instead of trying to play outside ourselves beyond our own ability, us amateur tennis players just return the ball, just keep it in play.

我們業餘網球玩家不是試圖打出超出自己能力範圍的球，而是把球打回去，讓球留在場內就好。

If you make fewer unforced errors and you let your opponent make those mistakes, you will win the loser's game by making less errors.

如果你減少非受迫性失誤，讓對手犯錯，你就能透過減少失誤來贏得這場 loser's game。

And so Ellis compared tennis to investing, and he found something really fascinating.

所以 Ellis 把網球和 investing 做了比較，他發現了非常有趣的一點。

A handful of professionals, a tiny number of people, they can pick stocks and know when to sell them, that can identify which sector or country to invest in.

少數的專業人士，極少數的人，他們能 stock picker 並知道何時賣出，他們能判斷哪個產業或國家可以 invest。

That's the 0.01% of people and their household names.

那大概是 0.01% 的人，而且都是響噹噹的名字。

你認識 Warren Buffett 或 Peter Lynch，因為他們是如此的 outliers。

我們其他人，我們在玩 loser's game。

We're unfortunately underperforming because we're making all of these errors.

我們表現不佳，實在是因為我們犯了這麼多錯誤。

We get emotional, we over trade, we don't pay attention to costs, we ignore taxes.

我們會有情緒，我們會 over trade，我們不注意成本，我們忽略稅金。

我們犯了這麼多錯誤，如果我們能避免這些錯誤，我們表現就會好很多。

That's why Ellis thought investing in tennis were so similar.

這就是為什麼 Ellis 覺得 investing in tennis 這麼相似。

Most of us are playing the loser's game and playing it badly.

我們大多數人都在玩 loser's game，而且玩得很差。

If we make fewer unforced errors, we would just be so much better off.

如果我們犯更少的非受迫性失誤，我們就會好很多。

So a number of academic studies have found that a surprisingly few percentage of stocks are actually driving market returns.

所以有許多學術研究發現，只有少數比例的股票實際上在帶動市場報酬。

Professor Hendrik Bessembeiner at Arizona State University did a study, and

亞利桑那州立大學的 Hendrik Bessembeiner 教授做了一項研究，

he found that just 2% of stocks are responsible for all the returns that we've seen over the past 75 years.

他發現，在過去 75 年來，只有 2% 的股票貢獻了所有的報酬。

Depending on the country you look at, maybe it's a little more, a little less, but.

看你研究哪個國家，可能多一點點，少一點點，但。

Well, some stocks are up a little each year, some stocks are down a little each year, some stocks are flat.

嗯，有些股票每年小漲一點，有些股票每年小跌一點，有些股票持平。

That leaves very few stocks that are the giant winners that drive returns.

這就只剩下很少數的股票是帶動報酬的超級贏家。

In the context of the losers game, where we want to make fewer mistakes, every decision we make is another opportunity for error.

在 loser's game 的情境下，我們希望犯更少的錯誤，我們做的每一個決定都是另一個犯錯的機會。

And given how much the odds are stacked against us, if only 2% of stocks are driving most of the returns, what are the odds that we're going to pick that one in 50 stocks that's going to be a big winner?

考量到我們成功的機率有多低，如果只有 2% 的股票在帶動大部分報酬，那我們要挑中那 50 分之一的股票成為大贏家的機率有多高？

First you have to identify a company that over the next 1, 3, 5, 10 years, is going to grow its revenue and its profits.

首先，你必須找出一家公司，在未來 1、3、5、10 年內，它的營收和獲利會成長。

Secondly, you have to buy that stock at the right time and at the right price.

再來，你必須在對的時間、用對的價格買進這檔股票。

Overpaying for a stock isn't going to help you at all.

買貴了這檔股票，對你一點幫助都沒有。

Third, you have to be willing to hold that through all the ups and downs that company is going to go through.

第三，你必須願意抱住這檔股票，度過公司會經歷的各種起伏。

Economic cycles, missed revenue expectations, missed profits.

經濟週期、營收預期落空、獲利不如預期。

And sometimes when stocks pull back, it's just a temporary setback and eventually they recover.

有時候當股票回檔時，那只是暫時的拉回，最後它們會反彈。

Knowing when something is just pulling back temporarily or that its best days are behind it and it's on the way down permanently, that's a really difficult thing to do emotionally.

知道什麼時候只是暫時拉回，或是公司最好的日子已經過去、而且會永久下跌，這在情感上是非常難做到的。

We have all these sunk costs in that stock.

我們在這檔股票上投入了這麼多沉沒成本。

We've researched it, we've investigated it.

我們研究過它，我們調查過它。

We're loath to cut it loose because, hey, we're tied up.

我們捨不得放手，因為，嘿，我們已經投入了。

It's very, very difficult to tell the difference between a Microsoft and an Intel.

要分辨微軟和英特爾之間的差異，真的非常非常困難。

Both added to the dow Jones Industrial 25 years ago.

兩者都是25年前加入道瓊工業指數的。

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巴瑞·裡特霍茲：大多數投資人忽略的驚人簡單法則！ (The surprisingly simple rules most investors break | Barry Ritholtz)

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