Name: 川普霸凌、中國經濟成長推動西方國家靠向中國｜DW 新聞 (Trump bullying, Chinese growth drives the West into China’s arms | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-20T17:41:02.000Z
Duration: 20 min 38 s

歐洲無法再對中國出口更多商品。

情態副詞

China has literally substituted everything Europe is good at, whether it's chemicals, whether it's autos.

中國已經實質上取代了歐洲擅長的各項領域，無論是化學品，還是汽車。

轉承詞

So China knows it needs to keep a little bit of that growth because what is coming is not very positive.

所以中國知道需要維持一點點成長，因為接下來的局勢並不樂觀。

The real estate sector is still actually doing even worse.

房地產行業的表現其實還在持續惡化。

What is really pushing China to grow at that level is the rest of the world.

真正推動中國達到那個成長水準的是世界其他地方。

So it was no big surprise when China met its official 5% economic growth target for last growth was boosted by a record trade surplus.

是以，當中國達到官方設定的 5% 經濟增長目標時，並沒有太令人意外，這項成長是受惠於創紀錄的貿易順差。

So China's relative economic strength combined with US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and threats to invade Greenland are making China more attractive for countries seeking non U S trade options.

所以，中國相對的經濟實力，加上美國總統唐納·川普的關稅政策以及入侵格陵蘭的威脅，讓尋求非美國貿易選項的國家，對中國更感興趣。

To take a closer look at China's economy and the changing face of global trade, let's talk to Alicia Garcia Herrero.

為了更深入地瞭解中國的經濟以及全球貿易不斷變化的面貌，我們來請教 Alicia Garcia Herrero。

She's chief economist for Asia Pacific at the French bank Natixis.

她是法國Natixis銀行的亞太區首席經濟學家。

Thanks for taking time to talk to us today.

It's no big surprise, as I said, that China met this growth target.

就像我說的，中國達到這個成長目標，其實沒有太令人意外。

But how would you interpret these figures?

Well, we first need to realize that the fourth quarter was actually lower than the average 5%.

嗯，我們首先要意識到，第四季的平均其實是低於 5% 的。

從十月開始，我們的數據都很差。

October, November, December have been much weaker.

十月、十一月、十二月都比較疲弱。

But I think beyond that, meaning the trend is really not upward.

但我覺得，更重要的是，趨勢其實不是向上的。

I'm sure that the next target will be 5%, if not short, close to sure.

我確定下一個目標會是 5%，就算沒達到，也差不多了。

They probably even, frankly, I think they probably tweeted a little bit, tweaked the numbers so that they could keep a little bit for the first quarter because it's five sharp, you know, so we can tell that fixed asset investment was quite low.

我認為他們甚至可能，坦白說，我認為他們可能稍微調整了一下數字，這樣他們就可以為第一季保留一點，因為是 5%，你知道的，所以我們可以說固定資產投資相當低。

所以中國知道它需要保留一點成長，因為即將到來的並不是那麼樂觀。

We can see that sentiment is not improving.

我們可以發現信心並沒有改善。

Fixed asset investment in real estate is at minus 16, at the tune of, you know, minus 16.

房地產的固定資產投資是負 16%，大約是負 16%。

How can you even imagine any recovery there?

你怎麼能想像那裡有任何復甦？

What is really pushing China is to grow at that level is the rest of the world.

真正推動中國以那個水準成長的是世界其他地方。

And you know, when you know your growth depends on the rest of the world, it's not very comfortable, is it?

而且你知道，當你知道你的成長依賴於世界其他地方時，這不是很舒服，對吧？

This is the exact opposite of self reliance, isn't it?

這完全是自力更生的反面，不是嗎？

So on top of that, a very important point is that China continues to export this trillion US dollar, wonderful figure, but

所以除此之外，一個非常重要的點是，中國持續出口這個價值一兆美元的驚人數字，但是

That is making less and less money, both because corporate profits we can see are growing negatively Industrial profits are negative, you know, overall I would say flat.

也就是賺的錢越來越少，一方面是因為我們可以看到企業利潤正在負增長，工業利潤是負的，你知道，總體來說我會說持平。

But also because wages, and we have data, actually

但也是因為薪資，而且我們有數據，實際上

we have data out today on disposable income are actually growing below the economic growth at around 4% for disposable income is very low.

我們今天有關於可支配收入的數據，可支配收入的增長實際上低於經濟增長，大約 4% 的可支配收入非常低。

Because both profits but also wages, real actual wages, meaning what people actually get, not the nominal wages, what is announced are coming down.

因為利潤和薪資，實際實質工資，也就是人們實際拿到手的，不是名義工資，不是公佈出來的數字，都在下降。

So you know when people say, oh, China does not want to grow out of domestic demand.

所以你知道，當人們說，哦，中國不想靠國內需求來增長。

不行，中國無法靠國內需求來增長。

Cannot grow out of domestic demand because there is no profitability.

無法靠國內需求來增長，因為根本沒有獲利能力。

It's what I call profitless growth model.

這就是我所謂的無利潤增長模式。

I'm not saying the rest of the world is any better.

我並不是說世界上其他地方就比較好。

It's not about comparing because of course if you compare, you can see, well, you know, China is still doing well, but, but

這不是比較的問題，因為當然如果你比較，你會看到，嗯，你知道，中國還是做得不錯，但是，但是

generally I say it's a very risky growth model.

總體來說我認為這是一個非常冒險的增長模式。

Not profits and depending on the rest of the world, that's what it is.

不是靠利潤，而是依賴世界其他地方，這就是它。

And this differential then between you know, with wages and growth means also has implications for things like retail sales.

而這種薪資與增長之間的差異，也對零售銷售等事物產生影響。

And I'm trying to boost any kind of domestic demand.

我正在努力提振任何國內需求。

That is why we are again at very low levels of retail sales.

這就是為什麼我們的零售銷售又回到非常低的水準。

So you know, you know that people are reluctant to buy even if prices are falling.

所以你知道，你知道人們即使在價格下跌時也不願購買。

你現在可能會說，這甚至不是。

Some economists argue, yeah, it's like you wait to buy.

有些經濟學家認為，是的，就像你等著買東西一樣。

I would say China is not yet there in that kind of deflation spiral.

我會說中國還沒有陷入那種通貨緊縮的螺旋。

On the consumer side, consumers do not want to buy whatever is durable, durable consume.

在消費者方面，消費者不想買任何耐用品、耐用消費品。

Consumer staples, so you know, food, all of that is fine.

像是民生必需品，你知道的，食物，這些都還好。

It's just the reason for this is that they are not sure their income will continue to grow.

這只是因為他們不確定自己的收入是否會持續增長。

So they only buy what is necessary, what is needed, any long term purchase, whether it's an investment that is housing or a car, a durable good.

所以他們只買必需品、需要品，任何長期的購買，無論是房地產投資還是汽車、耐用品。

They need massive subsidies which have been coming along, no more.

他們需要大量補貼，而這些補貼已經沒有了。

Because the local governments don't have the resources to continue to subsidize.

因為地方政府沒有資源繼續提供補貼。

So you know, it's a model in itself that again, we all have problems.

所以你知道，這本身就是一個模式，又一個，我們都有問題。

I'm not saying this is, you know, the end of the world, but

Whoever thinks okay, 5% growth, you know, cheap, kind of easy, easy peasy no, it's not.

任何認為 5% 的增長，你知道的，很便宜、很輕鬆、輕而易舉的人，錯了，不是這樣的。

China has a lot of issues behind that 5% number.

中國的 5% 數字背後有很多問題。

So it's kind of a, it's quite a precarious figure.

所以這有點像，這是一個相當不穩定的數字。

And, and it's a picture of a sort of a precarious economic growth that you're painting.

你描繪的，描繪的是一種相當不穩定的經濟增長景象。

On the other hand, it's one that the rest of the world is suddenly looking at with licking its lips because of the situation in a way that, that they've, that many countries have been put into.

另一方面，世界其他國家卻突然垂涎三尺，因為他們，許多國家都陷入了這種情況。

One of the countries that's by, by President Trump and his tariff policies and also things like the threats to invade Greenland.

其中一個國家，是川普總統和他實施的關稅政策，還有像威脅要入侵格陵蘭那樣的事情。

There's a lot of issues that many Western countries now have in particular with, with Donald Trump.

許多西方國家現在特別是跟唐納·川普，有很多問題。

So we've just seen Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney secure what he described as a preliminary but landmark trade.

所以我們剛看到加拿大總理馬克·卡尼，確保了，他形容為初步但具里程碑意義的貿易。

How significant is Canada's reset of relations with China, do you think, in terms of countries looking to China as a savior?

你認為加拿大重塑與中國關係，在各國將中國視為救世主方面，有多重要？

It is very significant because it's not only Canada.

這非常重要，因為不只是加拿大。

We have the UK and frankly speaking, we just had guidelines to substitute what I would call hard earned tariffs on EVs.

我們有英國，坦白說，我們剛收到了一項訓示，要取代我所謂的來之不易的電動車關稅。

Because it took a while for the European Union to set up those tariffs.

因為歐盟設立這些關稅花了一段時間。

We are now thinking of basically substituting them with minimum price undertaking, which basically means that the Chinese EV makers get basically the tariff meaning as a profit and the consumer in Europe will pay for that.

我們現在考慮用最低價格承諾來取代它們，這基本上意味著中國電動車製造商會從關稅中獲利，而歐洲的消費者將為此買單。

This is not very good news for the consumer.

這對消費者來說不是個好消息。

Because Europe sees the threat of Trump 10% additional tariffs because of Greenland.

因為歐洲看到了川普因為格陵蘭問題而加徵 10% 關稅的威脅。

You know, China is not really about the Chinese market.

你知道，中國（的市場）對中國來說不是真的。

Maybe more for Canada because Canada is a commodity exporter.

對加拿大來說可能比較重要，因為加拿大是商品出口國。

字幕列表影片播放

川普霸凌、中國經濟成長推動西方國家靠向中國｜DW 新聞 (Trump bullying, Chinese growth drives the West into China’s arms | DW News)

sort

basically

improve

cholesterol