Name: 川普經濟上任一年後表現如何？ (One Year In: How Trump’s Economy is Doing?)
Uploaded: 2026-01-17T18:28:52.000Z
Duration: 9 min 45 s

程度副詞

Donald Trump completely reshaped the US economy.

當時唐納·川普徹底重塑了美國經濟。

He crashed the entire stock market, introduced as high tariffs as the Great Depression, and

他讓整個股市崩盤，實施了堪比大蕭條時期的關稅，而且

The US economy hasn't experienced anything like that in over 100 years.

美國經濟在過去一百多年來從未經歷過這種情況。

And according to Donald Trump, he has built the greatest economy of all time.

而根據唐納·川普的說法，他打造了史上最偉大的經濟。

But on the other side, critics argue that is actively destroying the US Economy.

但另一方面，批評者認為這正在摧毀美國經濟。

So let's give it a closer look and find out what exactly is happening.

所以，我們來仔細看看，找出到底發生了什麼事。

One of the ways to measure the economy is to simply take a look at the GDP growth.

衡量經濟的一種方式就是看看 GDP 成長。

Now, to understand whether this number is great or not, we simply have to compare it to other similar economies.

那麼，要了解這個數字好不好，我們就來跟其他類似的經濟體比較一下。

So relative to the UK, the United States is doing great.

所以跟英國比起來，美國表現得很不錯。

The French GDP did not even grow by a single percentage point.

法國 GDP 甚至連一個百分點都沒成長。

So compared to other G7 countries, the United States is actually doing a great job.

所以跟其他 G7 國家比起來，美國的表現其實很棒。

If you compare the US to China, China's real GDP growth was 5.2% or which is substantially higher than the United States.

如果跟中國比，中國的實際 GDP 成長是 5.2%，遠高於美國。

But you can't be comparing those two countries because China is a developing country while the United States is a developed country.

但你不能這樣比，因為中國是開發中國家，而美國是已開發國家。

But some independent research shows that the real GDP growth in China is anything between 2.5 to 3%.

不過有些獨立研究顯示，中國的實際 GDP 成長介於 2.5% 到 3% 之間。

If this is the reality, then 2% for the United States is actually great.

如果這是真的，那美國的 2% 其實很不錯了。

The US labor market has been slowing down substantially since the beginning of 2025.

美國的勞動市場從 2025 年初就開始明顯放緩。

Now, between 2023 and 2024, the United States was adding hundreds of thousands of jobs every single month.

在 2023 年到 2024 年間，美國每個月都增加了數十萬個工作機會。

But suddenly beginning 2025, that number substantially goes down.

但到了 2025 年初，這個數字卻大幅下降。

And by the end of the year, the United states only added 50,000 jobs, which is a fraction of the number of jobs that that it used to add back in 2023 and 2024.

到了年底，美國只增加了 5 萬個工作機會，遠低於 2023 年和 2024 年的數字。

However, unemployment did not increase much.

不過，失業率並沒有大幅上升。

The year ended with unemployment rate of 4.4%.

While this number is significantly higher than it has been back in 2023 and 2024, 4.4% is actually great, especially if you compare it to many other European countries.

雖然這個數字比 2023 年和 2024 年高出不少，但 4.4% 其實很不錯了，尤其是跟很多歐洲國家比起來。

In some countries right now, unemployment is more than 7%.

有些國家現在的失業率甚至超過 7%。

And I'm not just talking about some poor countries that are struggling economically, but

而且我說的不是那些經濟蕭條的窮國，

G7 economies that are some of the largest economies out there.

而是 G7 國家，這些都是數一數二的大經濟體。

The United States ended last year with 2.9% inflation rate.

And based on this trajectory, it was clear that the United States is going to achieve an inflation target of 2%.

而且照這個趨勢來看，美國要達成 2% 的通膨目標是很有機會的。

That is the objective that the Federal Reserve has in front of itself.

But the moment Donald Trump introduces his tariffs back in April, you can see exactly what is happening.

但唐納·川普在四月重新實施關稅的那一刻，你就可以清楚看到發生了什麼事。

Inflation rate skyrockets to 3% and then it cools down by the end of the year to 2.7%.

通膨率飆升到 3%，然後在年底又降到 2.7%。

So inflation is still higher than the targeted inflation by the Federal Reserve, but 2.7% isn't substantially higher.

所以通膨還是比聯準會設定的目標高，但 2.7% 也沒有高到離譜。

Yes, it is actually making investors nervous.

是的，這確實讓投資人感到緊張。

But 2.7% is not catastrophic given the fact that the GDP or the real GDP has grown by 2%.

但考量到 GDP 或實際 GDP 成長了 2%，2.7% 其實不算災難。

Trump justified his tariffs because he wants to fix the trade balance with China, India and the European Union.

川普為他的關稅辯護，因為他想改善與中國、印度和歐盟的貿易平衡。

So did Trump actually fix the trade balance with these countries in 2025?

所以川普在 2025 年真的改善了這些國家的貿易平衡嗎？

Before we answer that question, I want to share with you something that is very helpful if you are serious about investing in 2026.

在回答這個問題之前，我想跟你分享一些對你認真想在 2026 年投資非常有幫助的東西。

I put together a free investing course that that will teach you step by step on how to start investing and make your first hundred thousand dollars.

我整理了一個免費的投資課程，會一步一步教你如何開始投資並賺到你的第一桶金。

You can get the course for free using the link in the description of this video.

你可以在這個影片的說明區找到連結免費領取課程。

So did Trump's tariffs actually reduce the trade balance?

所以川普的關稅真的減少了貿易逆差嗎？

Back in 2023 and 2024, the United States was importing roughly about 60 to 80 billion dollars worth of products every single month.

回到 2023 年和 2024 年，美國每個月大約進口價值 600 到 800 億美元的商品。

By the end of the year, that number dropped to about $30 billion.

到了年底，這個數字降到了大約 300 億美元。

So essentially he reduced the imports by about 50%.

所以基本上他減少了約 50% 的進口。

Yes, there was a spike in the beginning because all of these companies was rushing to bring all of those goods back to the United States to ensure that shelves in the stores are not going to be empty.

是的，一開始會有一個飆升，因為所有這些公司都在趕著把所有商品運回美國，確保商店的貨架不會是空的。

But right after that, they stopped importing.

但在那之後，他們就停止進口了。

And if this trajectory is going to continue throughout 2026, most likely he's going to fix the trade balance.

如果這個趨勢持續到 2026 年，他很可能會解決貿易平衡問題。

In fact, if you look at the numbers specifically with China, the trade balance back in January of 2025 was negative $31.7 billion.

事實上，如果你看看中國的具體數字，2025 年 1 月的貿易平衡是負 317 億美元。

By October of the same year, it is about $15 billion.

同年 10 月，這個數字約為 150 億美元。

In fact, the United States imported from China back in January $41.6 billion.

事實上，美國在 1 月份從中國進口了 416 億美元的商品。

By the end of the year, that number drops to $23.8 billion.

到年底，這個數字降至 238 億美元。

But exports to China didn't actually change much.

但出口到中國的商品並沒有太大變化。

Yes, when Trump introduced the tariffs, those exports dropped dramatically.

是的，當川普實施關稅時，那些出口大幅下降。

But by the end of the year, the number jumped back to about $9 billion.

但到年底，這個數字又回升到約 90 億美元。

So essentially, the US exports to China dropped by about 8 to 9%, while imports from China has dropped by 50%.

所以基本上，美國對中國的出口下降了約 8% 到 9%，而從中國進口的商品則下降了 50%。

Total exports in 2024 were about $2 trillion and the United States recorded a deficit of $1.3 trillion by 2025, total exports slightly grew and total imports slightly dropped.

2024 年總出口約為 2 兆美元，到 2025 年美國的赤字為 1.3 兆美元，總出口略有增長，總進口略有下降。

And the United States recorded a deficit of less than a trillion dollars.

The reason that total imports in 2025 aren't that different from total imports in 2024 is because tariffs didn't actually instantly impact the market.

2025 年總進口與 2024 年總進口差異不大的原因是因為關稅並沒有立即影響市場。

Companies imported way more to avoid the tariffs.

公司為了規避關稅，進口了更多商品。

So the real implication of these tariffs actually happened by the end of the year, which most likely means that throughout 2026, we are going to see how imports are going to fall.

所以這些關稅的實際影響其實發生在年底，這很可能意味著在整個 2026 年，我們將會看到進口如何下降。

But the real question comes back at the end of the day.

Why did the GDP grow despite the tariffs?

為什麼 GDP 會在有關稅的情況下成長？

A tariff generally increases the price because it is an extra tax on the goods that are imported from foreign countries.

關稅通常會因為是額外對進口商品徵收的稅，而提高價格。

So generally, higher prices drive lower consumption, which in total should bring down to lower GDP growth.

所以一般來說，較高的價格會導致消費下降，而這總體上應該會降低 GDP 成長。

But why did the GDP grew by 2.1% last year?

但為什麼去年的 GDP 會成長 2.1% 呢？

The reality is that a GDP is a combination of multiple factors.

事實上，GDP 是多種因素的綜合。

This is what you spend when you go on groceries.

Investments are any type of investment made by anybody in the economy.

投資是經濟體中任何人所做的任何類型的投資。

It could be you buying stocks, or it could be a business building another manufacturing plant in the United States.

這可能是你買股票，也可能是企業在美國蓋另一間製造廠。

Government is the biggest spender in the economy.

政府是經濟體中支出最大的部分。

The US Government spends trillions of dollars annually, so nobody can outspend the U.S. government.

美國政府每年花費數兆美元，所以沒有人能比美國政府花更多錢。

Exports is what you export and sell to other countries.

出口是你出口並賣給其他國家的東西。

Imports is what other countries are selling inside your country.

進口是其他國家在你國家內銷售的東西。

Tariffs essentially decrease the imports and increase exports, which means that higher GDP growth.

關稅基本上會減少進口並增加出口，這意味著更高的 GDP 成長。

But last year was also a great year for AI because the big tech has been spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build the entire AI industry across the United States, which was one of the major reasons why the stock market did so well last year.

但去年對 AI 來說也是很棒的一年，因為大型科技公司投入數千億美元來建立整個美國的 AI 產業，這也是去年股市表現如此亮眼的主要原因之一。

And it was also one of the biggest drivers drivers of the GDP last year.

這也是去年 GDP 的最大驅動因素之一。

And companies also realized that there is no way around it.

而且公司也意識到，這條路是無法迴避的。

So they started bringing manufacturing back to the United States.

所以他們開始把製造業帶回美國。

These manufacturing plants might not be open yet, and

it will take companies a couple of years to build them in the US but since they're already spending and building these factories across the United States, it is driving the GDP growth.

美國公司蓋這些廠需要幾年時間，但因為他們已經在美國各地花錢蓋廠，這正在帶動 GDP 成長。

But not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

The United States government is spending more than ever and the debt is getting entirely out of control.

美國政府的支出比以往任何時候都多，債務已經完全失控。

In 2025, the total deficit was about $1.8 trillion and the national debt ballooned to $38.6 trillion, at least at the time that I am recording this video.

2025 年，總赤字約為 1.8 兆美元，國債膨脹到 38.6 兆美元，至少在我錄製這段影片時是這樣。

Right before Trump took office, the national debt was $36.1 trillion.

在川普上任前不久，國債是 36.1 兆美元。

So throughout his presidency, over the last year alone, the national debt grew by $2.5 trillion.

所以在他擔任總統期間，光是去年一年，國債就增加了 2.5 兆美元。

And we already know the budget for 2026, the deficit this year is going to exponentially grow by extra $400 billion because the total deficit will cross $2.2 trillion.

我們已經知道 2026 年的預算，今年的赤字將呈指數級增長，額外增加 4000 億美元，因為總赤字將超過 2.2 兆美元。

And most likely the national debt will cross $41 trillion.

Maybe by the end of the year, it might even be $41.5 trillion.

甚至可能到年底就會達到 41.5 兆美元。