Name: 經濟正在好轉嗎？ | BBC Newscast (Is the economy on the up? | BBC Newscast)
Uploaded: 2025-12-22T17:06:23.000Z
Duration: 28 min 28 s

Two topics and two big questions on today's episode.

今天節目有兩個主題和兩個大哉問。

Is the UK economy on the up and where could tensions between Venezuela and the United States end up?

英國經濟是正在好轉嗎？委內瑞拉和美國之間的緊張局勢又會發展到哪裡？

未來進行式

That's what we'll be discussing on today's episode of Newscast, the BBC's daily news podcast.

這就是我們在 BBC 每日新聞 podcast Newscast 今天節目中要討論的。

Hello, it's Tristan from the Global Story in the newscast studio standing in for Adam.

大家好，我是 Tristan，來自 Global Story，在 newscast 工作室裡代替 Adam。

And it's Faisal here in the newscast studio standing in for myself.

我是 Faisal，同樣在 newscast 工作室，代替我自己。

And in part two of today's podcast, we're going to be looking at the rising tensions between the US And Venezuela, asking where everything is going on right now in the Caribbean could actually lead.

在今天 podcast 的第二部分，我們要來探討美國和委內瑞拉之間日益升溫的緊張關係，並問問加勒比海現在的局勢到底會導向何方。

But first, Faisal, some good news for the government today when it comes to the economy and interest rates.

但首先，Faisal，今天政府在經濟和利率方面有好消息。

Before we get onto the substance of this though, you've been at something called a lock in at the bank of England.

在我們深入探討這個話題之前，你參加了英格蘭銀行的一個 lock in 活動。

Okay, well, there's a couple of things that happened.

The lock in is the, is a period of time before a big decision, a big announcement.

lock in 指的是一個重大決定、重大宣佈前的這段時間。

Normally in the case of the bank of England, it will be an interest rate decision where a small number of us get to hear what has happened a little bit earlier, an hour or so earlier, but

通常在英格蘭銀行，這會是利率決定的時候，我們少數幾個人可以提早大約一小時聽到發生了什麼事，但是

on condition that we are locked with no devices inside the vaults of the bank of England.

條件是我們被鎖在裡面，不能帶任何電子設備進入英格蘭銀行的金庫。

I, I assume rather close to where the gold is, but, but we don't get to see that.

我猜應該是離黃金存放的地方很近，但我們看不到。

I know it's sounding very glamorous at this point, but.

我知道聽起來現在很光鮮亮麗，但是。

No, it's in a rather tedious and boring convent sort of conference room.

不，那是在一個相當枯燥乏味的修道院式的會議室裡。

他們會檢查你身上有沒有帶設備嗎？

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you check them in.

對啊，對啊，對啊，你得把設備交出去。

But they did, they do like an actual search.

Well, there's no, there's no, there's no reception anyway.

But it's very important that, and that's the quid pro quo.

但這很重要，這就是 quid pro quo。

The point here is, is we're not just responding to the individual announcement of the rates cut as it was today, but

重點是，我們不只是在回應今天利率降息的單獨宣佈，而是在

the deliberations around it, some of the considerations about where things might go in the future, some of the disagreements on the nine member committee that, that decides interest rates.

圍繞著這些審議，關於未來可能發展的一些考量，以及決定利率的九人委員會中的一些分歧。

It just helps you have a little bit of extra time to contextualize before you put your headlines out, before you put your initial takes on the, on the story.

這能讓你多一點時間脈絡化，在發布頭條新聞、發布你對這則故事的初步看法之前。

It does help with our telling of the story.

這確實有助於我們講述這個故事。

there can't be any possibility that we could, if we wanted to tell any of that story in advance.

不能有任何可能性，如果我們想提前講述任何故事的話。

我的意思是，那是一個不同的脈絡。

We saw what happened with the Office of Budget Responsibility early release, early inadvertent release of the, of the Chancellor's budget measures last month.

我們看到了預算責任辦公室上個月意外提前發布財政大臣預算措施時發生的情況。

This is good news for the government, isn't it?

這對政府來說是個好消息，不是嗎？

So firstly, one should probably consider this as an accumulation of six cuts we've had over the past year and a half.

所以首先，我們應該把這看成是過去一年半以來，我們總共降息六次的累積。

這算是相當可觀、相當有份量了。

These things bizarrely take extra for many people.

這些事情對很多人來說，奇怪的是需要額外的時間。

They'll take extra time to see the benefit from this because 90% of people are on fixed rate mortgages.

他們需要額外的時間才能看到好處，因為 90% 的人都是固定利率房貸。

So you have to physically wait until a mortgage comes up.

But how it affects those fixed rates that are on offer is, is often in real time, often ahead of time.

但這如何影響那些正在提供的固定利率，通常是即時的，甚至會提前。

They're predicting these rate cuts in advance and they respond to that news.

他們會預測這些降息，並對這些消息做出反應。

So although physically the pounds in your pocket depend on when you're taking a mortgage out, and

所以雖然你口袋裡的英鎊實際上取決於你什麼時候申請房貸，

indeed if you are a mortgage holder, plenty of people rent, plenty of people paid off their mortgages.

而且如果你是房貸持有者，很多人是租屋族，很多人已經付清了房貸。

But your anticipation that the bump in mortgage rates that affected you three, five years ago, when rates were very high, which was, I know, hundreds of pounds increase, like a case study we've got on the six and ten o' clock news, £1,000amonth, you start to anticipate that that's going to go away in six months time or a year's time.

但你預期三、五年前影響你的房貸利率上漲，當時利率很高，我記得，每個月增加數百英鎊，就像我們在六點和十點新聞中的一個案例研究，每月 1,000 英鎊，你開始預期這將在六個月或一年內消失。

So it can affect your sense of how much money you have to spare.

所以這會影響你對有多少閒錢的感覺。

So it can affect confidence in that way, but it's a bit diffuse.

所以這會以這種方式影響信心，但有點模糊。

Now you ask a very important question about credit and whether the government will feel happy, vindicated by this.

現在你問了一個關於信用的非常重要的問題，以及政府是否會感到高興，並是以感到欣慰。

And certainly that's the message we got today from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, for a very specific reason, which is that the bank gave credit, if you like, to the fact that the budget was very carefully aimed in part at trying to get the headline rate of inflation down.

當然，這就是我們今天從財政大臣瑞秋·裡夫斯那裡得到的資訊，原因很特別，那就是銀行給予了信用，如果你願意的話，因為預算非常仔細地針對部分目的是為了降低通貨膨脹的頭條利率。

So the headline rate of inflation overall went up.

所以總體通貨膨脹的頭條利率上升了。

But given that the Office of Budget Responsibility, for example, said, well, actually

但考慮到預算責任辦公室，例如，說，嗯，實際上

these measures, things like the energy bills measure, taking hundreds of just a hundred pounds off bills, freezing railfares, freezing prescription prices, that they contributed to a 0.4 percentage point reduction in what the rate of inflation would be in April, the Bank of England actually says it's a little bit higher, 0.5 percentage points.

這些措施，像是能源帳單的措施，直接省下數百英鎊，凍結火車票價，凍結處方藥價格，它們有助於降低四月份的通貨膨脹率 0.4 個百分點，英格蘭銀行實際上說，這個數字稍微高一點，是 0.5 個百分點。

That's quite a chunky take away from inflation.

這對通貨膨脹來說是個相當大的減緩。

And then the question is, how does the bank respond to that?

那麼問題來了，銀行會如何回應呢？

Is it a slightly weird one that you shouldn't really account for?

還是說這有點奇怪，不應該真的去計算它？

Well, as I said on behalf of broadcasters, been talking to the bank of England governor and he said, yes, well actually a year ago when we had the budget and that contributed to inflationary pressures, I said, you know, Andrew Bailey said, well, we sort of called that out and we said this is part of a, a challenge in terms of the inflationary situation.

嗯，正如我代表廣播公司所說的，我跟英格蘭銀行總裁談過，他說，是的，其實一年前我們有預算，那對通貨膨脹的壓力有所貢獻，我說，你知道，Andrew Bailey 說，嗯，我們 sort of 點出了這一點，我們說這是通貨膨脹情況中的一個挑戰。

Now they've done the reverse and it is helping us cut.

現在他們做了相反的事情，這有助於我們降息。

So he was pretty clear in giving that credit.

所以他在給予這份肯定時相當清楚。

So that is why I think you heard Rachel Reeves today, the Chancellor sounding quite vindicated.

這就是為什麼我認為你今天聽到財政大臣瑞秋·裡夫斯聽起來相當有理有據。

However, they also pointed out that the economy is subdued and, and

然而，他們也指出，經濟低迷，而且

certainly we've heard from leader of the opposition, from the Shadow Chancellor too, that they blame that on some of the uncertainty around the budget and that hasn't cleared up.

當然，我們也聽到了反對黨領袖和影子財政大臣的說法，他們把這歸咎於預算帶來的一些不確定性，而且這種不確定性還沒消除。

And so as you're left now with like, where is the economy going?

所以現在你就會想，經濟到底會往哪裡去？

And you have this sort of pre Christmas jolt to the festive spirit potentially from the so called Santa cut, but

而這就像是聖誕節前夕，因為所謂的「聖誕老人漲勢」可能會對節慶氣氛造成衝擊，但是

there certainly was some uncertainty that weighed on economic activity and confidence for consumers and businesses.

當然，確實有些不確定性影響了經濟活動以及消費者和企業的信心。

What the bank goes around asking businesses, you know, do you feel better now?

銀行在詢問企業時，你知道，他們現在感覺比較好嗎？

And they say there's been no rebound, but

perhaps a gradual appreciation for the fact that the uncertainty around the budget is over.

或許會逐漸意識到，圍繞預算的不確定性已經結束了。

So I think all roads lead to January and February and March about where the economy goes.

所以我認為所有線索都指向一月、二月和三月，關於經濟的走向。

And I think there's an awful lot up for grabs right now.

我認為現在有很多事情懸而未決。

Well, I mean the uncertainty over this seems to be reflected in the decision making because the committee that decides these things, the Monetary policy committee, voted 5 to 4 in favor of the cut.

嗯，這方面的疑慮似乎也反映在決策上，因為負責決策的委員會，也就是貨幣政策委員會，以五票對四票贊成降息。

What were they worried about those people who were against it?

It's a battle between a subdued economy, subdued jobs market with unemployment going up, growth flat, actually

這是一場關於經濟低迷、就業市場低迷、失業率上升、成長停滯，實際上

contracting a little bit in the last three months, 0.1% and fears about inflation, about inflation becoming entrenched, about the perceptions of the UK being, you know, particularly inflation prone.

在過去三個月裡略有萎縮，0.1%，以及對通膨的擔憂，對通膨根深蒂固的擔憂，對英國被視為，你知道的，特別容易發生通膨的擔憂。

You do not want that in the markets, you get punished in the markets and it becomes a sort of self fulfilling doom loop of, well, hang on, you're a bit of an outlier, therefore we're going to charge you more to borrow money, therefore your situation is worse and therefore we're going to try.

你不希望在市場上出現這種情況，你會在市場上受到懲罰，這會變成一種自我實現的厄運循環，好吧，等等，你有點特立獨行，所以我們要向你收取更高的借貸費用，是以你的處境會更糟，是以我們將嘗試。

You know, that hadn't really triggered, but

你知道，那還沒有真正觸發，但是

people started to ask questions about why the UK's inflation uniquely was higher.

人們開始質疑為什麼英國的通膨獨特地更高。

Some of that has been allayed by a sharp surprise fall in the inflation rate that came yesterday, further allayed by the idea that there'll be a chunky fall inflation in April, partly as a result of the government's very specific budget actions aimed at reducing that.

昨天公佈的通膨率意外大幅下降，緩解了其中一些擔憂，而預計四月份通膨將大幅下降的說法也進一步緩解了擔憂，這部分是因為政府採取了非常具體的預算行動來降低通膨。

Not everybody was convinced by that as being a real cut in inflation.

並非所有人都相信那是一次真正的通膨削減。

There are different views as to what the biggest threat is right now.

對於目前最大的威脅是什麼，大家有不同的看法。

And essentially the 54 went from 54 the other way in the body of the governor of Andrew Bailey deciding to change his vote from hold to cut.

然後基本上，總督 Andrew Bailey 決定將他的投票從維持利率改為降息，這 54 票就這樣改變了。

And that again relates to a sort of marginal change of view about when the right timing was for a cart about its effectiveness, about what the biggest risks were.

這又與對降息的時機、其有效性、以及最大的風險是什麼，產生了邊緣性的看法轉變有關。

And so he's gone with the idea that we should cut.

Rather interestingly, he has now also suggested that from now on in, that decision about further cuts into the future will be a closer call.

有趣的是，他也建議從現在開始，未來進一步降息的決定將會更難抉擇。

And the markets have interpreted that we've pretty much had one cut every quarter over the last year and a half.

市場解讀為，過去一年半以來，我們大約每季都有一次降息。

And so the natural way to interpret that is, well, maybe that slows down to like one every half year.

所以自然的解讀是，嗯，也許速度會放慢到大約每半年一次。

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