Name: 【TED】塔利-沙羅特:樂觀主義偏見（The optimism bias | Tali Sharot）。 (【TED】Tali Sharot: The optimism bias (The optimism bias | Tali Sharot))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:18:06.000Z
Duration: 17 min 41 s

情態副詞

I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- or more precisely

我想和你們談談樂觀主義-- 或者更準確的說

the optimism bias. It's a cognitive illusion that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years

樂觀偏見。 這是個認知錯覺 過去數年來一直在我的實驗室裏研究著

It's our tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives

我們容易高估 可能是因為生活中所經歷的都是好事

and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events

So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer, being in a car accident

所以我們低估了可能也會患有癌症 可能也會出車禍

We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.

In short, we're more optimistic than realistic, but we are oblivious to the fact.

簡言之，我們是樂觀多於實際 但是我們都忽略了一個事實

Take marriage for example. In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.

就拿婚姻來說 離婚率在西方世界大約是40%

That means that out of five married couples, two will end up splitting their assets

也就是說五對已婚夫妻中 有兩對會玩完了然後分財產

But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, they estimate it at zero percent

但是當你問新婚夫妻他們本身的離婚可能性時 他們都說百分之百的不可能

And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better

甚至連離婚律師，應該是最了解情況的人

hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.

也是大大地低估了他們自己離婚的可能性

So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce

所以結論就是樂觀者不是不可能離婚

In the words of Samuel Johnson, "Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."

塞謬耳‧約翰曾說過， “再婚是希望對經歷的勝利。”

So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.

所以如果我們結了婚，就比較可能有小孩

And we all think our kids will be especially talented.

而且都會認為我們的小孩特別聰明

This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy

這一位，順便一提，是我的兩歲外甥，蓋

And I just want to make it absolutely clear that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias

我想說的只是 他真的是樂觀偏見的壞榜樣

And I'm not alone. Out of four British people,

而且不是只有我這麼認為，在四個英國人中

three said that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. That's 75 percent.

三個會說 他們對於自己家人的前途都相當樂觀 這樣的比例有75%

But only 30 percent said that they thought families in general are doing better than a few generations ago.

但只有30%的人說 他們認為一般說來家人 做得比前幾代要好

And this is a really important point, because we're optimistic about ourselves

這真的是很重要的一點， 因為我們對自己樂觀

we're optimistic about our kids, we're optimistic about our families

我們對孩子樂觀， 對我們的家人樂觀

but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,

and we're somewhat pessimistic about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country

反而有些悲觀 對我們的市民朋友的命運及國家的命運

But private optimism about our own personal future remains persistent.

但是對於我們個人前途的私人樂觀 仍然持續

And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay

這並不是說我們認為事情會奇蹟般的變好

but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.

而是我們有獨特的能力使它變好

Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. So to show you what I mean

現在，我是個科學家，我來做個實驗。 讓你們更了解我的意思

I'm going to do an experiment here with you. Okay.

我在這裏要和你們一起做個實驗

So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,

我打算列出一張能力和特性的清單

and I want you to think for each of these abilities where you stand relative to the rest of the population.

我要你們想想看這些每個能力 你所在的水準與其它人相比

The first one is getting along well with others. Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?

第一個是和他人相處得很好 在座各位有誰相信自己是最底部的25%？

Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?

好吧，那大概是1,500人中的10個 有誰相信自己是最頂端的25%?

That's most of us here. Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.

這裏大部份人都相信。 好。 相同問題評估你自己的駕駛能力

How interesting are you? How attractive are you?

你這個人有多有趣? 你有多少吸引力?

How honest are you? And finally, how modest are you?

你有多誠實? 最後，你有多謙虛?

So most of us put ourselves above average on most of these abilities.

所以大部份的人把自己放在水平之上

Now this is statistically impossible. We can't all be better than everyone else.

這是完全不可能的，我們不可能每個人都比別人好

But if we believe we're better than the other guy,

但是如果我們相信自己比他人好

well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,

就是說我們容易高升、容易維持婚姻

because we're more social, more interesting.

And it's a global phenomenon. The optimism bias has been observed in many different countries

這是個全球化的現象 樂觀偏見在不同的國家裡都被注意到了

in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures

在西方文化裏、在非西方文化裏

in females and males, in kids, in the elderly. It's quite widespread.

在女性與男性之間 在小孩和年長者之間 分佈甚廣

But the question is, is it good for us? So some people say no

但問題是，對我們而言好嗎? 有些人說不好

Some people say the secret to happiness is low expectations

有些人說幸福的秘訣 就是降低期待值

I think the logic goes something like this: If we don't expect greatness,

我想邏輯是這樣的：如果我們的期盼不高

if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,

如果我們不期盼找到愛、身體健康和事業成功

well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.

當這些事都沒發生時，我們就不會失望

And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, we will be happy.

而且，就算好事沒發生時，我們也不會失望 如果發生了好事，就算給我們一個大驚喜 我們會很快樂

So it's a very good theory, but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons

所以這是個相當好的推論， 但是有三個理由讓它變成錯的

Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, people with high expectations always feel better.

第一：不論發生什麼事，不管你成功還是失敗， 期待高的人通常都會自我感覺較好。

Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month depends on how we interpret that event.

因為，我們被人拋棄或當上明星店員的感覺如何， 完全看我們怎麼解釋那件事而定

The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown studied students with high and low expectations.

心理學家Margraret Marshall 及 John Brown 研究期盼高及期盼低的學生

And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, they attribute that success to their own traits.

他發現期待高的人成功時， 他們將成功歸功於自己的人格特質

I'm a genius, therefore I got an A, therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future

我是個天才，所以我得個A， 所以以後我也會一再得A

When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb, but because the exam just happened to be unfair.

當他們失敗時，不是因為他們笨。 而是因為這個考試剛巧不公平

Next time they will do better. People with low expectations do the opposite.

下一次他們會考得更好。 期盼低的人剛好相反

So when they failed it was because they were dumb

and when they succeeded it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. Next time reality would catch up with them. So they felt worse.

而當他們成功時， 是因為考試剛巧真的太簡單， 下一次就會露出馬腳了。 所以他們覺得自己很糟糕。

Number two: Regardless of the outcome, the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.

第二：不管結果， 單純的期待行為使我們快樂

The behavioral economist George Lowenstein asked students in his university to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity

行為經濟學家George Lowenstein 在大學裏問學生得到想要得到哪個名人的熱吻

Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay to get a kiss from a celebrity if the kiss was delivered immediately

他說：“你願付多少錢 得到名人的吻，如果吻馬上就來

in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, in one year, in 10 years?

3小時內，24小時內，3天內， 1年內，10年內？

He found that the students were willing to pay the most not to get a kiss immediately, but to get a kiss in three days

他發現學生最願意付的是 不要馬上就能得到的吻而是3天內能得到的吻

they were willing to pay extra in order to wait

他們願意支付額外費用來等待一個吻

Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; no one wants an aging celebrity

但他們不願意一等就等個1年或10年的； 因為沒人會要個上了年紀的明星

But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.

So why is that? Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with

為什麼會這樣? 嗯。如果你現在馬上就被親一下，那馬上就沒了

But if you get the kiss in three days, well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.

但是如果你三天內才被親 那就有三天緊張的預期，等待的快感

The students wanted that time to imagine where is it going to happen, how is it going to happen.

學生需要那些時間來想像即將要發生的事情，會在哪裡發生、怎麼發生的。

This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday

順道一提的，這也就是為何人們比週日還喜歡週五

It's a really curious fact, because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,

這真是讓人難以理解的事實， 因為週五是個工作天而週日是個歡樂天

so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, but they don't.

所以可以假設人們較喜歡星期天， 但不是

It's not because they really, really like being in the office and they can't stand strolling in the park or having a lazy brunch.

不是因為他們真的、真的愛呆在辦公室 也不是因為他們不能忍受在公園裏散步 或是不想吃個慵懶的早午餐

We know that, because when you ask people about their ultimate favorite day of the week,

我們知道，因為當你問人 一週中最喜歡哪一天

surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, then Friday, then Sunday. People prefer Friday because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead

驚訝吧，驚訝吧，週六是首選， 之後是週五，再來才是週日， 人們喜歡週五 因為週五為週末帶來期待

all the plans that you have. On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to is the work week.

期待所有的計劃 但在週日，唯一能企望到的 就是整週的工作

So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, more strolls in the park.

所以樂觀者就是期待未來能有更多吻的人或是在公園的散步

And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing

In fact, without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed. People with mild depression, they don't have a bias when they look into the future

事實上，沒有了樂觀偏見 我們都會有一點點沮喪。輕度憂鬱症患者就對於他們的未來沒有任何偏見

They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.

實際上，他們比健康的人更現實

But individuals with severe depression, they have a pessimistic bias.

但是重度憂鬱症患者 他們有悲觀的偏見

So they tend to expect the future to be worse than it ends up being.

所以往往盼望的未來，往往比生命結束還要悲慘

So optimism changes subjective reality. The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.

所以樂觀改變了主觀的現實 我們期盼世界變成我們眼見的方式

But it also changes objective reality. It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

但是也改變了客觀存在 它表現得像個自我實現的預言

. And that is the third reason why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.

第三個理由 為什麼降低期待不會使你感到快樂

Controlled experiments have shown that optimism is not only related to success

對照實驗顯示 樂觀不只和成功有關，樂觀導向成功

it leads to success. Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.

樂觀在學術界及運動界和政治界導向成功

And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health. If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced.

樂觀最令人驚喜的好處就是健康。如果我們期盼前途是光明的，壓力及焦慮會降低

So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.

But the question that was really confusing to me was, how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?

但是真正困擾我的問題是 我們如何在現實面前保持樂觀?

As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing, because according to all the theories out there

身為一個神經科學家，感到特別的困擾， 因為根據那裏所有的理論

when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.

期待未實現時，就應該改變他們

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【TED】塔利-沙羅特:樂觀主義偏見（The optimism bias | Tali Sharot）。 (【TED】Tali Sharot: The optimism bias (The optimism bias | Tali Sharot))

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