Name: "大多數人不知道金磚國家即將發生什麼" ("Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen To BRICS”)
Uploaded: 2025-10-07T18:52:21.000Z
Duration: 20 min 37 s

The US economy has entered a danger zone.

美國經濟已經進入危險區域了。

現在進行式

In 2008, the United States took a very serious decision that it's going to run the largest deficit in history.

在2008年，美國做了一個非常重大的決定，就是要創下歷史上最大的赤字。

過去簡單式

That should have ended the dollar as the global reserve currency, but it did not.

這本應該會終結美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位，但並沒有。

So it angered many other large nations such as India, Russia and China.

所以這激怒了許多其他大國家，像是印度、俄羅斯和中國。

Because from now onwards, the United States could print its way out every single crisis while these nations had to work hard, build real stuff in, in order to grow their economies.

因為從今以後，美國可以透過印鈔解決每一次的危機，而這些國家卻必須努力工作、建造實體商品，才能發展其經濟。

But the United States on the other side, could continue growing its economy by just borrowing as much money as it possibly can.

但是美國另一方面，卻可以透過盡可能地借貸來持續發展其經濟。

So in 2009, these countries came together and created an alliance called BRICS in order to put an end to the dollar as the global reserve currency.

所以在2009年，這些國家聚集在一起，成立了一個叫做BRICS的聯盟，目的是要終結美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

And since then, there has been a lot of rumors that they will come up with a currency that will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

從那時起，就一直有很多傳言說他們將會推出一種貨幣來取代美元的全球儲備貨幣地位。

However, 16 years later, not only that these countries could not even build a common currency, but

然而，16年後，這些國家不僅連共同貨幣都無法建立，

they are far away to ever replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency.

他們離取代美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位，還有很長一段路要走。

So how is it possible that the United States has the largest debt in history, that the United States is running a 2 trillion dollar deficit, and

那美國怎麼會有史上最大的債務，美國有兩兆美元的赤字，

yet nobody can even challenge the United States.

And these huge nations that are economically bigger than the United States, that have far more people, that control far more resources, cannot even build a currency that could challenge the US Dollar.

這些經濟體比美國還大、人口更多、掌握更多資源的龐大國家，卻連一種能挑戰美元的貨幣都無法建立。

Now to understand that, we have to understand how currencies work in the first place.

要了解這一點，我們首先必須瞭解貨幣是如何運作的。

A currency like a dollar or a euro or a pound is an artificial commodity created by the government to control the economy.

像美元、歐元或英鎊這樣的貨幣，是政府為了控制經濟而創造的一種人為商品。

Purpose primarily to control prices on one side and to grow the economy on the other side.

主要目的是一方面控制物價，另一方面促進經濟成長。

because when people buy things, they use the local currency and the government has a monopoly on that currency, the government can simply limit the inflow of that currency, which is going to slow down the demand, which is going to slow down inflation and prices won't get out of control.

當人們買東西時，他們會使用當地貨幣，而政府對這種貨幣擁有壟斷權，政府可以簡單地限制這種貨幣的流入，這將減緩需求，進而減緩通貨膨脹，物價就不會失控。

If the government would have used the gold as a currency, then the government would not have that power because the government do not has all the gold in the world.

如果政府使用黃金作為貨幣，那麼政府就沒有這種權力，因為政府不可能擁有全世界所有的黃金。

On the other side, it's about economic growth.

另一方面，這也關乎經濟成長。

When the economy slows down, because the government can artificially create that currency, it can pump money into the economy, which is going to drive demand in the economy, which is going to grow the economy, because the economy runs in multiple cycles.

當經濟放緩時，因為政府可以人為地創造貨幣，所以它可以向經濟注入資金，這將會帶動經濟需求，進而帶動經濟成長，因為經濟是週期性的。

So there is a period of prosperity when the economy is rising dramatically.

所以會有一段經濟大幅上漲的繁榮時期。

But at that stage things could get out of control and prices could rise way faster than anybody else wants.

但在那個階段，事情可能會失控，物價可能會比任何人想要的漲得快得多。

So in order to prevent the economy from turning into one giant bubble like it happened in 2008, like it happened in late 1990s, or like it happened in multiple other occasions in American history or the history in the world.

所以為了防止經濟變成像2008年、1990年代末期，或美國歷史上或世界歷史上許多其他時期那樣變成一個巨大的保麗龍。

In fact, the government can limit the supply of money, which is going to slow down the demand, which is going to prevent the bubble from forming or from getting even bigger.

事實上，政府可以限制貨幣供應，這將減緩需求，這將防止保麗龍形成或變得更大。

At certain point, the economy slows down and it turns into a financial crisis or a market crash.

在某個點，經濟放緩並轉變為金融危機或市場崩潰。

And that crash could last a few months or sometime it could even last a few years or even 10 years.

而那次崩潰可能持續幾個月，有時甚至可能持續幾年，甚至10年。

We call it a recession if it's two consecutive negative GDP growth quarter or a depression when it lasts more than two years.

如果連續兩個季度GDP負成長，我們稱之為衰退；如果持續兩年以上，我們稱之為蕭條。

In this case, the government has a tool to control the economy.

在這種情況下，政府有一個工具可以控制經濟。

It can literally print money, create artificial demand, push people to start investing.

他們可以印鈔票，創造人為需求，推動人們開始投資。

People start buying, people start investing.

人們開始購買，人們開始投資。

For example, the government can start borrowing money because the currency is artificially created.

例如，政府可以開始借錢，因為貨幣是人為創造的。

Take that money, start a couple few more projects, hire people.

拿這些錢，啟動幾個新項目，僱用員工。

Those people will receive paychecks from the government.

They will take the paychecks, they will go and buy a car, trip themselves in restaurants, buy houses, that, that money is going to circulate the entire economy.

他們會拿著薪水，去買車，去餐廳用餐，買房子，這些錢將會在整個經濟體系中流通。

And the economy slowly gets out of that financial crisis.

經濟就會慢慢走出那個金融危機。

And that's why it's extremely important to have a currency and not have gold as a money in the economy.

這就是為什麼擁有貨幣，而不是黃金作為經濟中的貨幣，是極其重要的。

And all of that is done by the central bank of that country.

而這一切都是由該國的中央銀行來完成的。

In the US it's the Federal Reserve that has the power or the authority to create the dollars.

在美國，擁有創造美元權力或權威的是聯邦準備理事會。

The first tool at their disposal is the interest rates.

他們手邊的第一個工具就是利率。

By raising the interest rates, borrowing money becomes more expensive.

透過提高利率，借錢就會變得更貴。

So if you wanted to open that coffee shop or start that business, if interest rates are 10%, you're going to think twice before borrowing money to start coffee shop.

所以，如果你想開咖啡店或創辦那間公司，如果利率是10%，你就會在借錢開咖啡店之前三思而後行。

If your coffee shop is not making enough profit, you won't be able to cover the interest on that debt.

如果你的咖啡店賺的錢不夠，你就沒辦法支付債務的利息。

You're not going to borrow money, you're not going to spend and inflation is not going to rise.

你就不會借錢，你就不會花錢，通貨膨脹也不會上漲。

On the other side, if interest rates are dropped to 1% suddenly, if your coffee shop is making 7% ROI and you can borrow money at 1%, it makes sense to borrow that money and open your coffee shop and start doing business.

另一方面，如果利率突然降到1%，如果你的咖啡店的投資報酬率是7%，而你可以在1%的利率借到錢，那麼借錢來開咖啡店、開始做生意就變得很有意義。

Another tool is of course, quantitative easing or quantitative tightening.

另一個工具當然是量化寬鬆或量化緊縮。

Now, quantitative tightening is basically opposite of quantitative easing.

現在，量化緊縮基本上是量化寬鬆的相反。

When the central bank directly buys a lot of government bonds, that gives the government a lot money, and

當央行直接購買大量政府債券時，這會讓政府獲得很多錢，而

that a lot of money will be spent on the economy, which is going to drive economic growth.

這些錢將會被花在經濟上，這將會帶動經濟成長。

And that's how basically currencies work.

這基本上就是貨幣運作的方式。

Now, it's very difficult to have one currency for two different nations.

現在，要讓兩個不同的國家共用一種貨幣，其實非常困難。

Let's take an example of the European Union.

So we have Germany on one side and we have Greece on the other side.

And both of these nations use the Europe.

Now, the problem is that these two economies could be at entirely two different economic stages.

問題是，這兩個經濟體可能處於完全不同的經濟階段。

One could be growing dramatically while the other could be in a financial cris.

一個可能正在蓬勃發展，而另一個可能正處於金融危機中。

So the right policy for Germany might be to hike the interest rates to prevent it to turn into a bubble, while for Greece it might be to lower interest rates or devalue the currency so that the country gets out of the financial crisis.

所以，對德國來說，正確的政策可能是提高利率以防止泡沫化，但對希臘來說，可能是降低利率或讓貨幣貶值，這樣國家才能擺脫金融危機。

But you cannot possibly do that because you have one currency.

但你不可能這麼做，因為你們只有一種貨幣。

And if you have one currency, then both of these countries have one central bank.

而如果只有一種貨幣，那麼這兩個國家就只有一個中央銀行。

And that central bank cannot possibly have one interest rate for one country and a completely different interest rate for another country.

而這個中央銀行不可能對一個國家實施一種利率，卻對另一個國家實施完全不同的利率。

And that's why, because that is impossible.

這就是為什麼，因為那是不可能的。

And if you ever have that, why have that if you can simply have two entirely different currencies.

如果你們有那樣的貨幣，為什麼還要擁有它，如果你們可以簡單地擁有兩種完全不同的貨幣。

So in order for two or more countries to have one currency, like in the case of the European Union, you need these economies to be deeply integrated, so they have to function as one giant country.

所以，為了讓兩個或更多國家擁有一種貨幣，就像歐盟的情況一樣，你們需要這些經濟體深度整合，這樣它們就必須像一個龐大的國家一樣運作。

all 50 states use a single currency because they act as one giant country, because there are one giant country.

所有50個州都使用單一貨幣，因為它們就像一個龐大的國家一樣運作，因為它們就是一個龐大的國家。

But in the European Union, they're trying, or have been trying to integrate their economy so much that they won't be competing against one another, but

但在歐盟，他們正試圖，或者一直試圖將他們的經濟整合得如此之深，以至於他們不會相互競爭，而是

rather they will be complementing one another.

They're producing Mercedes, they're producing BMWs, they're producing a lot of really sophisticated technology.

他們生產賓士，生產BMW，生產很多非常尖端的科技產品。

But France is major in agriculture and luxury products.

但法國在農業和奢侈品方面很強。

Louis Vuitton or Dior or other famous luxury brands are all coming from France and not Germany.

像LV、Dior這些知名的奢侈品牌，都是來自法國，而不是德國。

And then you have Spain, that attracts the rest of the world with its tourism.

然後是西班牙，靠觀光吸引全世界。

Spain is not building really fancy cars, but

西班牙不是在製造什麼很厲害的汽車，而是

it's mostly the place where you come to have a very beautiful, nice vacation.

主要就是大家來度假，享受美好時光的地方。

And then in the southern part of Europe, you have Netherlands, that is, specializes in logistics.

接著在歐洲南部，有荷蘭，他們專精於物流。

It also specializes in a lot of other technologies.

But it has one of the largest ports in the entire European Union and literally specializes in logistics.

它們擁有歐盟最大的港口之一，而且真的專精於物流。

So European economies are very deeply integrated.

所以歐洲的經濟整合得非常深入。

So when one of them gets into a crisis such as the Greece debt crisis, the rest of the union cannot possibly function because that country is in a crisis and it drags the rest of the countries within itself.

是以，當其中一個國家陷入危機，像是希臘的債務危機，整個歐盟就無法正常運作，因為那個國家陷入危機，就會拖垮其他國家。

The logical thing, for example, when Greece went into a debt crisis, would be for Greece to devalue its currency.

理所當然，例如希臘爆發債務危機時，希臘應該要讓自己的貨幣貶值。

So it will be easier for Greece to pay off its debts.

這樣希臘就能更容易償還債務。

Yes, invest to suffer, but investors will view Greece as a very risky investment.

是的，投資者會面臨損失，但投資者會認為希臘是個風險非常高的投資標的。

But because Greece borrows money in euro, it also puts in danger the rest of the countries that borrow money in euro.

但因為希臘是以歐元借貸，這也讓其他以歐元借貸的國家陷入危險。

And the reason that the rest of the countries are borrowing money in euro is because euro is a single currency for all of these nations.

而其他國家之所以以歐元借貸，是因為歐元是這些國家共同的單一貨幣。

And that's why growing European economies is so extremely difficult.

這也是為什麼歐洲經濟成長如此困難。

Now, the Euro is not a very old currency.

現在，歐元其實不是一個很老的貨幣。

It came out literally like 25 years ago, and

eight years later, it actually encountered the biggest challenge in its history.

8年後，它就遇到了史上最大的挑戰。

And since then, European economies are not growing much while the US Economy is growing tremendously.

從那之後，歐洲經濟成長不多，而美國經濟卻蓬勃發展。

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"大多數人不知道金磚國家即將發生什麼" ("Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen To BRICS”)

literally

extremely

crisis

exact