Name: 2025 年購買 Palantir 股票是否為時已晚？ (Is It Too Late to Buy Palantir Stock in 2025?)
Uploaded: 2025-08-29T18:04:24.000Z
Duration: 26 min 53 s

形容詞最高級

Palantir is the hottest stock in the market and it has been like that over the last couple of years.

Palantir 是市場上最熱門的股票，過去幾年來一直如此。

The stock has grown by over 2000% over the last 2 and a half years.

在過去的兩年半時間裡，該股的漲幅超過了 2000%。

過去簡單式

So even a few thousand dollar investment into that stock turned out to be great.

是以，即使投資幾千美元購買這隻股票，結果也是非常好的。

The only investment that could compete with Palantir is probably Nvidia.

唯一能與 Palantir 競爭的投資可能是 Nvidia。

But a lot of people wondering whether it makes sense to buy Palantir in 2025 or we have missed the train and it's too late and we have to wait for the crash.

但很多人都在想，在 2025 年收購 Palantir 是否有意義，還是我們已經錯過了這趟列車，為時已晚，只能等待崩盤。

So here in this video, I want to answer a couple of questions.

是以，在這段視頻中，我想回答幾個問題。

What are the reasons to buy Palantir in 2025?

2025 年購買 Palantir 的理由是什麼？

What are the reasons why nobody should be buying Palantir in 2025?

2025 年誰都不應該購買 Palantir 的原因是什麼？

And at the end of the day, we are gonna come up to a certain conclusion, whether it's too late or not.

最後，無論是否為時已晚，我們都會得出一定的結論。

I mean just look at that stock, it has grown by over 2000%.

我的意思是，看看這隻股票，它已經增長了 2000% 以上。

The people who purchase Palantir at this point are probably very very happy.

此時購買 Palantir 的人可能會非常非常高興。

我的意思是，很可能是時候賣掉了。

但無論如何，我們還是要樂觀一點。

Experts have different opinions about Palantir.

專家們對 Palantir 持有不同意見。

Some suggest that there is still a lot of room to grow and the stock can grow to as high as 200 dollars.

有人認為，該股仍有很大的增長空間，股價可能會漲到 200 美元。

Some say that the average price for Palantir today is about 137 dollars and the very conservative estimates puts the price of Palantir at 45 dollars.

有人說，如今 Palantir 的平均價格約為 137 美元，而非常保守的估計是，Palantir 的價格為 45 美元。

By looking at these three prices, it might be confusing what you should do.

看了這三個價格，您可能會感到困惑，不知道該怎麼辦。

However, you can make a very good case for each of these price targets.

不過，你可以為每一個價格目標提出很好的理由。

Let's start first with the case against Palantir.

讓我們先從針對 Palantir 的案件說起。

Why do investors believe that Palantir is extremely overvalued at this point?

為什麼投資者認為 Palantir 目前的估值極高？

Palantir's PE ratio is 520, which means that investors at this current price that is being traded in the market are paying 520 dollars for every earnings that the company is making.

Palantir 的市盈率為 520，這意味著按照目前的市場交易價格，投資者需要為公司的每份收益支付 520 美元。

When you have a PE ratio of 520, you should be very careful before you are investing.

當市盈率達到 520 時，在投資前就應該非常謹慎。

There must be a very good reason to buy a stock at a price when its PE ratio is 520.

在市盈率為 520 的情況下，必須有一個非常好的理由才能以這個價格買入股票。

Because for Palantir to justify its current price, it must have a net income of 15 billion dollars or an EPS of 6 dollars and 24 cents.

因為，Palantir 要證明其目前的價格是合理的，就必須有 150 億美元的淨收入或 6 美元 24 美分的每股收益。

In comparison, in 2024, the company earned a revenue of less than 3 billion dollars and it had earnings of less than half a billion dollars, which puts its EPS at 19 cents.

相比之下，2024 年，該公司的收入不到 30 億美元，盈利不到 5 億美元，每股收益為 19 美分。

Now it is normal for a lot of companies to have very slow earnings and have a very high PE ratio when we talk about growth stocks.

現在，當我們談論成長型股票時，很多公司的盈利非常緩慢，市盈率非常高，這很正常。

Because there are companies in the market who are not willing to make a lot of money today since they are developing their infrastructure or they are developing their business model so they can have a loss for a very long period of time and then sometime in the future, they will make a lot of money.

因為市場上有一些公司不願意在今天賺很多錢，因為他們正在發展自己的基礎設施，或者正在發展自己的商業模式，所以他們可以在很長一段時間內虧損，然後在未來的某個時候，他們會賺很多錢。

Amazon is probably one of the best examples.

亞馬遜可能就是最好的例子之一。

It had a very high PE ratio but over a long period of time, it kept investing in itself.

它的市盈率非常高，但在很長一段時間裡，它一直在投資自己。

And then suddenly in 2018 and 2019, Amazon becomes one of the most profitable businesses in the world.

然後在 2018 年和 2019 年，亞馬遜突然成為全球最賺錢的企業之一。

The company is expected to earn a little over 4 billion dollars in 2025 and about 5.7 billion dollars in 2026.

預計該公司 2025 年的收入將略高於 40 億美元，2026 年約為 57 億美元。

But to make a net income of 15 billion dollars, the company should be earning tens of billions of dollars, and it's nowhere close to that.

但是，要實現 150 億美元的淨收入，公司應該賺取數百億美元，而現在還遠遠達不到。

Even if you take the most optimistic estimates about its potential revenue, it comes nowhere close to 15 billion dollars.

即使對其潛在收入做出最樂觀的估計，也遠遠達不到 150 億美元。

Palantir's net profit margin is about 22 percent, at least at this point.

至少從目前來看，Palantir 的淨利潤率約為 22%。

When it comes to software businesses, it is normal to have a net profit margin of 20-30 percent.

軟件企業的淨利潤率一般在 20%-30%。

So over the long run, when it perfects its business model, we can expect Palantir to have a higher net profit margin of 30 percent.

是以，從長遠來看，當 Palantir 完善其商業模式後，我們可以預期它的淨利潤率將提高到 30%。

So for a 15 billion dollars net income, Palantir needs to be earning 74 billion dollars in revenue.

是以，要實現 150 億美元的淨收入，Palantir 需要獲得 740 億美元的收入。

So a 20 percent net profit margin, it will justify a net income of 15 billion dollars.

是以，20% 的淨利潤率將證明淨收入達到 150 億美元是合理的。

But if we were going to be much more optimistic, and we assume that its net profit margin will be around 30 percent, then it needs to earn around 50 billion dollars in revenue.

但如果我們更樂觀一些，假設其淨利潤率約為 30%，那麼它需要獲得約 500 億美元的收入。

But even that is a lot because that's about 25 times its current revenue.

但即便如此，這也是一個很大的數字，因為這大約是其目前收入的 25 倍。

So the real question is that how long it will take Palantir to grow its revenue from 3 billion dollars to 50 billion dollars, and only at that point it is going to justify the price that is being traded in the market.

是以，真正的問題是，Palantir 需要多長時間才能將收入從 30 億美元增長到 500 億美元，只有到了那個時候，它才能證明市場上的交易價格是合理的。

That is as much as one of the largest companies in the world, oracle.

這與世界上最大的公司之一甲骨文公司不相上下。

So the question is that, can Palantir achieve this?

那麼問題來了，Palantir 能做到這一點嗎？

Even if the answer is yes, it is going to take the company years, at least 5 to 10 years.

即使答案是肯定的，公司也需要數年時間，至少 5 到 10 年。

So the question comes at the end of the day, why overpay for a stock when its current value won't be justified for another decade.

是以，問題最終還是來了，既然某隻股票的當前價值在未來十年內都不會被證明是合理的，那為什麼還要為它支付過高的價格呢？

A lot of things could happen in the next 10 years.

未來 10 年可能會發生很多事情。

Maybe theoretically, Palantir can earn 50 billion dollars, but within the next 10 years, there are plenty of companies that could compete with Palantir and Palantir might not be earning that much money.

也許從理論上講，Palantir 可以賺到 500 億美元，但在未來 10 年內，有很多公司可以與 Palantir 競爭，Palantir 可能賺不到那麼多錢。

And even if you want to buy the stock today, you want Palantir not to be earning 50 billion dollars, but rather you want it to be earning 80 billion dollars, 90 billion dollars.

即使你今天想買這隻股票，你希望 Palantir 賺的也不是 500 億美元，而是 800 億、900 億美元。

Because if you are buying Palantir at the stock price that is being traded today in the market, you want it to grow, you are not simply buying it because everyone else is buying it, you are buying it because you want to expect it to continue growing.

因為如果你以現在的股價買入 Palantir，你就會希望它繼續增長，你買入它並不是因為其他人都在買，而是因為你希望它繼續增長。

If you look at oracle's net income and revenue, it's about 57 billion dollars with an net income of around 12.5 billion dollars.

甲骨文公司的淨收入和營業額約為 570 億美元，淨利潤約為 125 億美元。

So for Palantir to justify its current price, it must grow at least as much as oracle.

是以，Palantir 要證明其目前的價格是合理的，就必須至少與甲骨文一樣實現增長。

A lot of people don't understand what exactly Palantir do.

很多人不瞭解 Palantir 到底是做什麼的。

We can divide Palantir into pre-2023 and after 2023.

我們可以把 Palantir 抽成 2023 年前和 2023 年後。

Now in short, Palantir basically collects and analyzes data to improve efficiency and predict the future.

簡而言之，Palantir 主要通過收集和分析數據來提高效率和預測未來。

In today's world, the more data you have, the more accurately you can analyze it, the more you can predict the future.

在當今世界，數據越多，分析越準確，預測未來的能力就越強。

Imagine you have a supply chain, this supply chain to a certain level is inefficient and there are many ways to actually make it much more efficient.

想象一下，你有一條供應鏈，這條供應鏈在一定程度上是低效的，而實際上有很多方法可以使它變得更加高效。

For example, if you can accurately predict the demand for certain products, then you are going to eliminate waste and suddenly your business became much more profitable.

例如，如果你能準確預測某些產品的需求，那麼你就能消除浪費，從而使你的業務突然變得更加有利可圖。

If you are a military, then you want to analyze the data in such a way so that you can actually predict future wars, that you can predict how much resources you need for this particular war so that you can take maximum advantage out of the resources that you already have.

如果你是一名軍人，那麼你就希望通過分析數據來預測未來的戰爭，預測這場戰爭需要多少資源，從而最大限度地利用現有資源。

So in 2023, Palantir launches its artificial intelligence platform, and that allows the process of collecting and analyzing data much more accurate and much more faster.

是以，在 2023 年，Palantir 推出了人工智能平臺，使數據收集和分析過程更加準確、更加快速。

So before 2023, they had all these softwares that would do that, so nobody actually paid a lot of attention to Palantir.

是以，在 2023 年之前，他們有所有這些軟件可以做到這一點，所以實際上沒有人非常關注 Palantir。

After 2023, we can use AI and we can do the exact same thing a hundred times much faster.

2023 年後，我們可以利用人工智能，以百倍於現在的速度完成同樣的工作。

And suddenly people realized that we can actually use Palantir services and it's gonna make our business a hundred times more efficient.

人們突然意識到，我們可以使用 Palantir 服務，它能讓我們的業務效率提高百倍。

For example, AI can detect fraud in financial transactions almost instantly by scanning millions of records.

例如，人工智能通過掃描數百萬條記錄，幾乎可以立即檢測出金融交易中的欺詐行為。

Suddenly, every single financial institution in the world needs AI services.

突然之間，世界上每一家金融機構都需要人工智能服務。

Every business that has a financial department might need Palantir because they will save a lot of money.

每個擁有財務部門的企業都可能需要 Palantir，因為他們將節省大量資金。

So why not pay Palantir, get the service, make yourself more efficient.

是以，為什麼不向 Palantir 支付費用，獲得服務，提高效率呢？

You can make the case that you can develop your own systems.

你可以說你可以開發自己的系統。

That is a possibility for a lot of businesses.

這對很多企業來說都是可能的。

But why build your own in-house business when you already have a great service in the market.

但是，既然市場上已經有了很好的服務，為什麼還要建立自己的內部業務呢？

Maybe over the long run, you might build your own businesses, but Palantir is providing you with a product that you know for a fact that it already works in the market.

也許從長遠來看，你們可以建立自己的企業，但 Palantir 為你們提供的產品，你們已經知道它在市場上行之有效。

So basically, Palantir's product is, we are going to improve the efficiency of your business.

是以，Palantir 的產品基本上就是，我們將提高您的業務效率。

And that's why if you look at the stock, you can see that before 2023, a lot of people didn't even care about Palantir.

這就是為什麼如果你看看這支股票，就會發現在 2023 年之前，很多人根本不關心 Palantir。

Suddenly, after 2023, the stock dramatically grows.

2023 年後，股票突然大幅增長。

It grows from less than 8 dollars per stock to as much as almost 200 dollars at its peak.

它從每隻股票不到 8 美元增長到高峰期的近 200 美元。

Currently, when I am recording this video, it's around 156 dollars per stock.

目前，在我錄製這段視頻時，每隻股票的價格約為 156 美元。

So the real question is that why investors are overpaying for Palantir.

是以，真正的問題是，為什麼投資者對 Palantir 付出了過高的價格。

What exactly is so special about Palantir that some investors are willing to pay so much.

Palantir 到底有什麼特別之處，讓一些投資者願意付出如此高昂的代價。

If you look at the people who hold Palantir, you will see Vanguard, you will see Blackrock, you will see Blackstone and you will see around half of Palantir's stock are being held by institutional investors, which gives us a lot of confidence in the business that we can know for a fact that even if the stock crashes, it's not going to go bankrupt because there are very serious investors behind the company.

如果你看一下持有 Palantir 股票的人，你會看到 Vanguard、Blackrock 和 Blackstone，你會看到 Palantir 大約一半的股票是由機構投資者持有的，這給了我們很大的信心，我們可以確定，即使股票暴跌，公司也不會破產，因為公司背後有非常嚴肅的投資者。

Palantir's client list are some of the best client lists that you will ever see anywhere.

Palantir 的客戶名單是您所見過的最好的客戶名單之一。

So the FBI has a contract with Palantir, the US military, NSA, national health services.

是以，聯邦調查局、美國軍方、國家安全局、國家醫療服務機構都與 Palantir 簽訂了合同。

But government contracts are just part of the business.

但政府合同只是業務的一部分。

Every private business also needs Palantir services.

每傢俬營企業也需要 Palantir 服務。

So you will find among their clients Airbus, Pfizer and many more.

他們的客戶包括空中客車公司、輝瑞公司等。

IRS is their client because they want to audit taxes much more efficiently so that IRS wouldn't waste so much money on auditing taxes.

國稅局是他們的客戶，因為他們希望更有效地審核稅收，這樣國稅局就不會在審核稅收上浪費那麼多錢。

So Palantir can actually be a great product for politics.

是以，Palantir 實際上可以成為政治領域的一個偉大產品。

Because at the end of the day, what is politics?

Politics is about analyzing data and predicting how people are going to vote based on certain factors.

政治就是分析數據，並根據某些因素預測人們將如何投票。

So if you can analyze the data so accurately and you can predict who will be the next president of the United States, how the senate is going to look, how the house is going to look, that is literally such a valuable knowledge, that is such a valuable data that you can plan your thing accordingly.

是以，如果你能如此準確地分析數據，並預測出誰將成為下一任美國總統，參議院將如何發展，眾議院將如何發展，這簡直就是如此寶貴的知識，如此寶貴的數據，你可以據此規劃你的事情。

And you can do that not just in the United States, but in the European Union or anywhere else in the world.

不僅在美國，在歐盟或世界其他任何地方，你都可以這樣做。

Or imagine for a moment that you want to shape the politics of a country in such a way.

或者想象一下，你想以這種方式塑造一個國家的政治。

So that you can analyze the data, find out the factors that have the biggest influence in the decision making of the people when they vote for a certain candidate or for a certain party and then you adjust actions in such a way where you change people's behavior over time.

這樣，你就可以分析數據，找出對人們投票給某個候選人或某個政黨的決策影響最大的因素，然後調整行動，從而隨著時間的推移改變人們的行為。

That's why I would say that Palantir is probably much more valuable for government than for private businesses.

是以我認為，Palantir 對政府的價值可能遠遠大於對私營企業的價值。

Or maybe it's the most valuable company for the governments in the world today.

或者說，它是當今世界上對政府最有價值的公司。

When you get government contracts, there is literally unlimited budget.

當你拿到政府合同時，預算簡直是無限的。

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2025 年購買 Palantir 股票是否為時已晚？ (Is It Too Late to Buy Palantir Stock in 2025?)

literally

potential

extremely

alternative