Name: 沃倫-巴菲特："大多數人不知道即將發生什麼" (Warren Buffett: "Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming")
Uploaded: 2025-08-16T18:29:10.000Z
Duration: 22 min 12 s

Warren Buffett knew that the stock market is going to crash.

程度副詞

If you just go to the last year when the stock market was going to the roof and you would tell people that the stock market is going to crash 6 months later, people would think like you are insane.

如果你在去年股市大漲的時候告訴人們 6 個月後股市會崩盤，人們會覺得你瘋了。

But if you look at the market today, everything is a crash.

但如果你看看今天的市場，一切都是崩潰。

Even the S&P 500 is down by around 10 percent.

就連標準普爾 500 指數也下跌了約 10%。

And if you look at other stocks such as Tesla, Meta, Apple, some of them are down by 20 percent, 50 percent, 70 percent.

如果你看看其他股票，如特斯拉、Meta、蘋果，其中一些下跌了 20%、50%、70%。

So while everybody is freaking out, including wall street, there is one person who is extremely calm and he was expecting and predicting this crash.

是以，當包括華爾街在內的所有人都驚慌失措的時候，有一個人卻非常冷靜，他期待並預測到了這次崩盤。

In fact, he was getting ready like no one else.

事實上，他的準備工作無人能及。

But people laughed at him back in 2024 because the stock market was going through the roof.

但在 2024 年，人們還嘲笑他，因為當時股市正一路高歌猛進。

Tesla alone during that period has grown by 237 percent.

在此期間，僅特斯拉一家就增長了 237%。

And people were expecting that it is going to grow much more than that because he was about to become the closest person to the president of the United States.

而人們期待的增長遠不止於此，因為他即將成為最接近美國總統的人。

Now 53 percent might not seem like a lot, but we are not talking about little company.

現在看來，53% 的比例似乎並不多，但我們談論的並不是一家小公司。

If a small company that worth let's say 50 billion dollars and it grows by 50 percent to 75 billion dollar valuation, that's fine, it's not literally a big deal.

如果一家價值 500 億美元的小公司的估值增長了 50%，達到了 750 億美元，這也沒什麼大不了的。

But when you have a company that worth 3 trillion dollars and it grows by 50 percent, we are talking about over a trillion dollar of valuation that's being added to the company in such a short period of time.

但是，如果一家價值 3 萬億美元的公司增長了 50%，那麼在這麼短的時間內，公司的估值就會增加超過一萬億美元。

If you look at Nvidia, you will see the same thing, it has grown by 57 percent.

如果你看看 Nvidia，也會發現同樣的情況，它增長了 57%。

So in 2024, nobody expected the crash because the market was growing significantly strong.

是以，在 2024 年，沒有人預料到會發生暴跌，因為市場增長明顯強勁。

But there is a very beautiful saying that says that be very careful when everyone is buying, because that's when the crisis is about to hit.

但有一句話說得非常好：當所有人都在買的時候，一定要非常小心，因為那就是危機即將來臨的時候。

And Warren Buffett understands that better than anyone else, because he has been taking advantage out of every single crisis since he has been in the market.

沃倫-巴菲特比任何人都更瞭解這一點，因為自從他進入市場以來，每一次危機他都能從中獲益。

And he has been in the market for such a long time that most people cannot even comprehend that.

而他在市場上已經摸爬滾打了很長時間，大多數人甚至無法理解這一點。

So here in this video, let's find out how Warren Buffett predicted the current crash and what Warren Buffett believes is going to happen next.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們來看看巴菲特是如何預測當前的股災的，以及巴菲特認為接下來會發生什麼。

Because the crash is not over yet, the crash is still happening.

因為崩潰尚未結束，崩潰仍在發生。

Yes, sometimes you might hear the news that the stock market slightly recovered, but that's just a daily recover.

是的，有時你可能會聽到股市略有回升的消息，但那只是每天的回升而已。

The question is that how bad it is going to get, and how exactly Warren Buffett has prepared himself for this massive crash.

問題是，情況會變得多麼糟糕，以及巴菲特究竟是如何為這場大崩盤做好準備的。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們一起深入瞭解。

Warren Buffett holds a long list of portfolio within Berkshire Hathaway because he manages that company.

沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）在伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）內持有一長串投資組合，因為他管理著這家公司。

And the valuation of Berkshire is over a trillion dollars and it contains multiple other stocks.

伯克希爾公司的估值超過萬億美元，其中還包括其他多隻股票。

They invested in Apple, Bank of America, Visa, Coca-Cola, and a long list of other companies.

他們投資了蘋果公司、美國銀行、Visa、可口可樂以及一長串其他公司。

But in the graph of the S&P 500, I want to show you exactly how he has been selling stocks over the last 2 years.

但是，在標準普爾 500 指數的圖表中，我想向大家展示他在過去兩年裡是如何準確地拋售股票的。

Now, the first crisis was in 2022 when the fed increased the rates dramatically from around 0.5% to over 5.5% and that led to a stock market crash.

第一次危機發生在 2022 年，當時美聯儲將利率從 0.5% 左右大幅提高到 5.5% 以上，導致股市崩盤。

That was the worst time to sell your stocks because stocks instantly went down.

那是最不應該賣出股票的時候，因為股票瞬間下跌。

However, if you go to the end of 2024, which is the 4th quarter, that is when Warren Buffett suddenly started massively selling off his stocks and he sold almost 15 billion dollars worth of That might not seem like a lot of money for a company that's worth over a trillion dollars, but even though, that is still billions of dollars, 15 billion dollars.

然而，如果你到 2024 年底，也就是第四季度，巴菲特突然開始大規模拋售股票，他拋售了價值近 150 億美元的股票。 對於一家價值超過萬億美元的公司來說，這似乎不是一筆大錢，但即便如此，這仍然是數十億美元，150 億美元。

And when Warren Buffett sells, he doesn't instantly sell his entire portfolio, you want to dollar cost every year investment, which means that if you want to sell, you are not going to do that overnight, you are going to sell some today, some next month, and over a period of a year, you might actually everything that you plan to sell.

當巴菲特賣出時，他不會立即賣出他的整個投資組合，你想要的是每年投資的美元成本，這意味著如果你想賣出，你不會在一夜之間做到這一點，你會在今天賣出一些，下個月賣出一些，在一年的時間裡，你可能真的會賣出你計劃賣出的所有東西。

That's exactly what is happening over here.

You can go to 2023, and in the first quarter, he is selling over 10 billion dollars.

你可以到 2023 年，在第一季度，他的銷售額就會超過 100 億美元。

In the next quarter, which is the 3rd in 2023, he sold around 5 billion dollars worth of stocks.

在下一個季度，也就是 2023 年的第三個季度，他賣出了價值約 50 億美元的股票。

Now, most of these stocks are bank of america and apple and some other companies because his stake in apple was so huge that it was probably over 50% of his entire portfolio.

現在，這些股票中大部分是美國銀行、蘋果和其他一些公司，因為他在蘋果公司的持股量非常大，可能超過了他整個投資組合的 50%。

Imagine one stock is so huge and made you so much money that when you look at your portfolio, that one stock single handedly represents half of maybe 60% of your portfolio.

想象一下，有一隻股票是如此之大，讓你賺了那麼多錢，以至於當你看你的投資組合時，這隻股票一手就佔了你投資組合的一半，也許是 60%。

That is great because you made so much money, but on the other side, it exposes you to so much risks.

這很好，因為你賺了很多錢，但另一方面，這也讓你面臨很多風險。

And one day, if something is wrong with that business, imagine how much money you are going to lose.

有一天，如果這家企業出了問題，可以想象你會損失多少錢。

And that can drive out investors when they see that one stock had such a massive negative influence on your investment portfolio.

當投資者看到一隻股票對你的投資組合產生了如此巨大的負面影響時，他們就會被嚇跑。

In the next quarter, he sells around 8 billion dollars, but here is where it literally gets interesting.

下一季度，他的銷售額約為 80 億美元，但有趣的地方就在這裡。

In 2024, he realizes that now, things are getting really really strange.

2024 年，他意識到現在事情變得非常非常奇怪。

This was the period when he was already expecting a crush, and you can see that there has been multiple sell offs by Warren Buffett.

這一時期，他已經有了擠兌的預期，你可以看到巴菲特已經多次拋售。

In 2023, he was already thinking that this market is overvalued.

2023 年，他已經認為這個市場被高估了。

Now I gotta do something, I gotta start selling my stocks before everything is crushing.

現在我必須做點什麼，我必須在一切都崩潰之前賣掉我的股票。

And the beauty of the market is that it is very unpredictable and there is nobody who can potentially exactly time the market, unless you are Nancy Pelosi.

市場的美妙之處在於它非常難以預測，沒有人能夠準確把握市場的時機，除非你是南希-佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）。

But if you are not, then you cannot possibly do that, and that is why he started selling slowly.

但如果你不是，那你就不可能做到這一點，這就是為什麼他開始慢慢銷售的原因。

But in 2024, he instantly sells 17 billion dollars because he is like, now this is getting out of hand, this is extremely overvalued.

但到了 2024 年，他立即賣出了 170 億美元，因為他覺得，現在情況已經失控，估值極高。

In the next quarter, he sells 75 billion dollars worth of stocks.

在下一個季度，他賣出了價值 750 億美元的股票。

Third quarter, he sells 35 billion dollars.

第三季度，他賣出了 350 億美元。

So at this point, he has already sold around 120 billion dollars worth of stocks in around a period of 12 months, or maybe slightly longer than that.

是以，在這一點上，他已經在 12 個月左右的時間裡賣出了價值約 1 200 億美元的股票，或許比這還要長一點。

And he ends 2024 by selling an extra 6.7 billion dollars.

在 2024 年結束時，他多賣了 67 億美元。

And that's why he ended up with a portfolio where almost 50 to 60 percent of the entire portfolio is pure cash.

是以，他的投資組合中幾乎有 50% 至 60% 是純現金。

His cash position is around 324 billion dollars.

他的現金頭寸約為 3 240 億美元。

You want your money to be invested in such a way that in companies that consistently grow.

您希望您的資金投資於持續增長的公司。

Cash in itself is useless unless you are investing it in a place that gives you a lot of interest.

除非你把現金投資到一個能給你帶來很多利息的地方，否則現金本身是沒有用的。

And that's exactly what Warren Buffett does.

He's not simply keeping so much cash in the bank.

他不僅僅是在銀行裡存了那麼多現金。

Most of that money is invested in cash equivalent assets.

大部分資金都投資於現金等價物。

And we are talking about 3 month treasury bills.

And right now they are paying a pretty decent interest rate.

而現在，他們支付的利率還算不錯。

Of course, that interest rate is nothing compared to what the stock market can actually get you, but nonetheless, that's better than nothing.

當然，與股票市場的實際收益相比，這個利率根本不算什麼，但有總比沒有好。

So you can clearly see that Warren Buffett was preparing for a crash since the end of 2022.

是以，你可以清楚地看到，沃倫-巴菲特從 2022 年底就開始為崩盤做準備了。

Now the question is that what exactly he bought and what exactly he sold.

現在的問題是，他到底買了什麼，又賣了什麼。

Because during this time, he also purchased and invested in some stocks.

因為在此期間，他還購買和投資了一些股票。

And when you understand what exactly Warren Buffett is selling and what exactly he's buying during a crisis, you can clearly understand or maybe you can have a clue about his investing strategy.

當你瞭解巴菲特在危機中到底賣什麼，買什麼時，你就能清楚地理解，或者說你就能對他的投資策略有所瞭解。

You are going to have a clue about what exactly is going on in his mind and why he purchased this specific business and sold this specific business when he's expecting a crash.

你要知道他心裡到底是怎麼想的，他為什麼要買下這個特定的生意，又為什麼要在預計會崩盤的時候賣掉這個特定的生意。

So based on the graph that I showed you, it is very clear that Warren Buffett was trying to time the market over the entire period of the last 2 years.

是以，根據我向你展示的圖表，可以非常清楚地看出，巴菲特在過去兩年的整個期間都在試圖把握市場時機。

Most of the stocks that he sold was apple.

他賣出的大部分股票都是蘋果。

And that's because Warren Buffett most likely believes that the tech sector is in a huge giant bubble.

這是因為巴菲特很可能認為，科技行業正處於巨大的保麗龍之中。

And that bubble has been accumulating since at least 2018 or 2019.

而這種保麗龍至少從 2018 年或 2019 年就開始積累了。

And the last couple of years with so much quantitative easing, we probably made the situation so bad that Warren Buffett believes that it is actually astronomical high to pay that much.

而在過去的幾年裡，我們採取了大量的量化寬鬆政策，可能使情況變得如此糟糕，以至於沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）認為，支付那麼高的費用實際上是天文數字。

Of course, he did not sell or did not exit his entire position in apple.

當然，他並沒有出售或退出他在蘋果公司的全部倉位。

He sold most of it, but he still keeps a large position in apple.

他賣掉了大部分股票，但仍在蘋果公司持有大量頭寸。

It's something around 50 to 60 billion dollars if I am not mistaken.

如果我沒記錯的話，大約是 500 億至 600 億美元。

Now another company that Warren Buffett exited was Bank of America.

巴菲特退出的另一家公司是美國銀行。

And I was a bit confused, because Warren Buffett is a big believer in the is a huge great reliable business.

我有點困惑，因為沃倫-巴菲特堅信，這是一個巨大而可靠的企業。

Because you want a service where people consistently come and buy your product.

因為你想要的服務是，人們持續不斷地來購買你的產品。

And banking is something that people cannot fundamentally live without.

從根本上說，人們的生活離不開銀行業務。

You use your credit cards, you use your debit card, you keep your money in a bank, you probably receive your paycheck through a bank, so you consistently use banking services.

你使用信用卡，使用借記卡，把錢存在銀行，你可能通過銀行領取工資，所以你一直在使用銀行服務。

And these companies are huge, they have consistent demand, so their profits and their revenue is predictable.

這些公司規模龐大，需求穩定，是以其利潤和收入是可以預測的。

And these are the two companies that Warren Buffett believed so much, and yet he sold massive stakes in those businesses.

巴菲特對這兩家公司深信不疑，但他還是出售了這些公司的大量股份。

However, on the other side, he invested in other businesses.

但另一方面，他也投資了其他企業。

One of the great businesses that he started investing is Constellation Brands.

他開始投資的偉大企業之一是 Constellation Brands。

And that is a company that contains within itself a lot of beverages, such as beer and wine.

而這家公司本身就包含許多飲料，如啤酒和葡萄酒。

When we are going to get into a recession, when we are going to get into a financial disaster, people will not stop drinking beer, people will not stop drinking wine.

當我們陷入經濟衰退，當我們陷入金融災難，人們不會停止喝啤酒，不會停止喝葡萄酒。

Because wine and beer are like soft drinks, people get addicted to them, and they keep drinking them even though there is a crisis, even though they cannot afford it.

因為葡萄酒和啤酒就像軟飲料一樣，人們會對它們上癮，即使有危機，即使買不起，他們也會繼續喝。

Some people literally get a credit card debt in order to keep drinking when they have an addiction.

有些人在酗酒上癮後，為了繼續酗酒而欠下信用卡債務。

And that is the strategy that Warren Buffett is following.

而這正是巴菲特所遵循的戰略。

Now another industry that he invested a lot was Occidental Petroleum.

他投資較多的另一個行業是西方石油公司。

And that's because when Trump became the president, he made it clear that we are going to boost the American oil and gas industry.

這是因為特朗普就任總統後，明確表示我們要促進美國石油和天然氣行業的發展。

And Warren Buffett feels confident that at least within the Trump presidency, the energy sector is going to boom, the energy sector is going to grow dramatically.

巴菲特堅信，至少在特朗普擔任總統期間，能源行業會蓬勃發展，能源行業會大幅增長。

Whenever there is a crisis, risky investments go down because people don't want to risk it.

每當出現危機，風險投資就會下跌，因為人們不想冒險。

Luxury things go down instantly because people have less money to on luxury things, especially when you have a recession.

奢侈品價格瞬間下跌，因為人們用於購買奢侈品的錢減少了，尤其是在經濟衰退的時候。

But on the other side, the necessities stay the same, or at least grow.

但另一方面，生活必需品保持不變，或至少有所增長。

Because no matter how big the crisis is, you are not going to stop using energy.

因為無論危機有多大，你都不會停止使用能源。

No matter how big the recession is, you are not going to stop using your car.

無論經濟衰退有多嚴重，您都不會停止使用您的汽車。

So the demand for energy will stay there no matter what.

是以，無論如何，對能源的需求都將持續存在。