Name: 2025 年股市崩盤解析 (2025 Stock Market Crash Explained)
Uploaded: 2025-08-12T18:20:33.000Z
Duration: 13 min 6 s

Over the last 5 years, the stock market shot to the roof.

在過去 5 年裡，股市一飛沖天。

情態副詞

Some people are massively selling off their stocks.

Like Warren Buffett who is sitting on 350 billion dollars worth of cash.

就像沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）坐擁價值 3,500 億美元的現金。

But it doesn't take a genius to look at this graph and realize that since the creation of the S&P 500, the stock market has grown by 3000 points up until 2020.

但是，不需要天才也能看到這張圖，並意識到自標準普爾 500 指數創立以來，到 2020 年，股市已經增長了 3000 點。

After that, it doubles to 6373 points and has grown by 100%.

之後，它翻了一番，達到 6373 點，增長了 100%。

The S&P 500 simply represents the top 500 largest companies in the United States.

標準普爾 500 指數僅代表美國最大的 500 家公司。

And the stock prices should reflect how much money these companies are making.

股票價格應該反映出這些公司賺了多少錢。

So the question is that, does these stock valuations reflect the corporate earnings?

那麼問題來了，這些股票估值是否反映了企業盈利？

Because if companies suddenly started to make a lot more money than they used to in the past, then it is normal for those stock prices to rise.

因為如果公司突然開始比過去賺更多的錢，那麼這些股票的價格上漲也是正常的。

However, when we look at the P-E ratio of the S&P 500, we see something fundamentally different that the P-E ratio of the S&P 500 is about 30 now.

然而，當我們看一下標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率時，我們會發現一個根本不同的現象，那就是標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率現在約為 30。

Now a P-E ratio is the amount is how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar that the company will make sometime in the future.

市盈率是指投資者願意為公司未來賺取的每一美元支付多少錢。

So the higher the P-E ratio, the more hopes investors have that these corporations are going to become much more profitable sometime in the future.

是以，市盈率越高，投資者就越有希望看到這些公司在未來的某個時候變得更加有利可圖。

The normal P-E ratio is around 15 for the S&P 500.

標準普爾 500 指數的正常市盈率約為 15。

There are companies that have lower P-E ratio, tech, ford, and tesla.

市盈率較低的公司有科技、福特和特斯拉。

But ford is a traditional car company, and nobody expects ford to be ultra-profitable sometime in the future, they have been producing cars over the last 100 years, and people expect them to do so.

但福特是一家傳統的汽車公司，沒有人會指望福特在未來的某個時候實現超額利潤，他們在過去的 100 年裡一直在生產汽車，人們也期望他們能做到這一點。

That's why a P-E ratio of 5 to 10 for them is normal.

這就是為什麼它們的 P-E 比率在 5 到 10 之間是正常的。

But tesla presents itself as an AI and robotics company and renewable energy company, so they might be much more profitable, that is why they have a P-E ratio of 200.

但特斯拉以人工智能、機器人和可再生能源公司自居，是以他們的盈利能力可能更強，這也是他們市盈率高達 200 的原因。

But let's be honest, a 200 P-E ratio for any company is literally too high.

但老實說，對任何公司來說，200 的 P-E 比率都實在太高了。

But for the S&P 500, it's supposed to be around 15, that is the only thing that actually makes sense.

但對於標準普爾 500 指數來說，它應該在 15 點左右，這才是真正有意義的。

In 2020, when P-E ratios crossed 35, the interest rates were increased by the federal reserve and the entire market has crashed, and that's why P-E ratios were adjusted to about 18.

2020 年，當 P-E 比率超過 35 時，美聯儲提高了利率，整個市場崩潰了，這就是為什麼 P-E 比率被調整到 18 左右。

So the real question is that, what exactly is going to happen, because the P-E ratio should adjust.

是以，真正的問題是，到底會發生什麼，因為 P-E 比率應該調整。

Now, the P-E ratio is just one metric out of many metrics, and it shouldn't be the defining factor, but it actually gives us a glimpse of what is happening in the market.

現在，市盈率只是眾多指標中的一個指標，不應該成為決定性因素，但它實際上讓我們看到了市場正在發生什麼。

Because either corporate earnings should rise to reflect the stock prices, or stock prices should fall to reflect the corporate earnings, that's how the stock market works at the end of the day.

因為要麼公司收益上漲反映股價，要麼股價下跌反映公司收益，這就是股市最終的運作方式。

Otherwise, it's a bubble, because that is the nature of the bubbles.

否則，這就是保麗龍，因為這就是保麗龍的本質。

When there is unhealthy demand for any kind of assets, people start buying it without understanding what is the true value of that thing is.

當對任何一種資產有不健康的需求時，人們就會開始購買，卻不瞭解這種東西的真正價值。

And then at a certain point, people realize that this is an overvalued stock, the people who purchased it at the beginning will start massively selling.

到了一定程度，人們意識到這隻股票估值過高，一開始購買這隻股票的人就會開始大量拋售。

Take an example of bitcoin back in 2016 and 2017, it was advertised as the technology that will change the world, and if you buy bitcoin, tomorrow you will become ultra trillionaire.

以比特幣為例，早在2016年和2017年，比特幣就被宣傳為改變世界的技術，如果你買了比特幣，明天你就會成為超萬億的富翁。

Yes, bitcoin has a future, and bitcoin today exists and it's much bigger than it has ever been back in 2016 and 2017.

是的，比特幣是有未來的，今天的比特幣是存在的，而且比 2016 年和 2017 年的比特幣要大得多。

But a lot of people who got into the game thought that it will continue rising, and then it crushed by 90%.

但是，很多參與遊戲的人都認為遊戲會繼續上漲，結果遊戲卻下跌了 90%。

And that's when people realized that it was actually a bubble, because the demand was extremely unhealthy.

這時人們才意識到，這實際上是一個保麗龍，因為需求極不健康。

So what we have to understand in this situation, whether we are in a bubble or not, is whether the demand that drove the stock market over the last 5 years is healthy or unhealthy.

是以，在這種情況下，無論我們是否處於保麗龍之中，我們必須明白的是，在過去 5 年中推動股市的需求是健康的還是不健康的。

The real reason behind everything that is happening is because the supply of money has been actually growing tremendously.

這一切背後的真正原因是，貨幣供應量實際上一直在大幅增長。

Now this is M2 money, and the supply of money constantly rises by about 5-6% annually as you can see over here.

現在，這是 M2 貨幣，貨幣供應量每年以大約 5-6% 的速度持續增長，就像你在這裡看到的那樣。

We have the Federal Reserve, every year or every other year, the Fed prints a certain amount of money, and that is M1 money.

我們有美聯儲，每年或每隔一年，美聯儲都會印製一定數量的貨幣，這就是M1貨幣。

That M1 money will circulate and will turn into bank loans through fractional reserve banking and that increases M2 money.

M1 貨幣會流通，並通過部分準備金銀行業務轉化為銀行貸款，從而增加 M2 貨幣。

And then if M2 money rises and it circulates further, then M3 money rises.

如果 M2 貨幣上升並進一步流通，那麼 M3 貨幣也會上升。

And that's why the supply of money constantly rises by about 6% if we take M2 in this case.

這就是為什麼貨幣供應量會不斷增加，如果以 M2 為例，增幅約為 6%。

So we can expect the stock market to rise by about 6% annually, because if you are increasing the supply of money, the value of the dollar gets devalued, and even if the stock market does not rise as much, it must rise by about 6% to reflect the supply of money in the economy.

是以，我們可以預期股市每年將上漲約 6%，因為如果你增加貨幣供應量，美元的價值就會貶值，即使股市沒有上漲那麼多，它也必須上漲約 6%，以反映經濟中的貨幣供應量。

And that's why the S&P 500 grows by about 8-10% annually, which is slightly higher than the supply of money, because that extra 2-4 percentage points are the real value that these corporations are making by building new technologies, building new products, building new stuff.

這就是為什麼標準普爾 500 指數的年增長率約為 8-10%，略高於貨幣供應量，因為這額外的 2-4 個百分點是這些公司通過構建新技術、新產品和新產品所創造的實際價值。

And that's why it's extremely important to make sure that a portion of your money is invested in the stock market.

是以，確保將一部分資金投資於股票市場極為重要。

It's important to have an emergency fund, but if you are only sitting on a lot of cash, then you know that that constant increase in the supply of money is devaluing your dollars.

擁有一筆應急基金固然重要，但如果你只是坐擁大量現金，那麼你就會知道，貨幣供應量的不斷增加正在讓你的美元貶值。

What is interesting here is that is 2020 and 2021, suddenly the supply of money or the stock market has increased by about 30%.

有趣的是，在 2020 年和 2021 年，貨幣供應量或股市突然增加了約 30%。

Basically if we gonna simplify everything, we have thrown so much money into the economy, and now there is so much extra money that wasn't prior to 2020, asset prices in the market have to adjust in some way to reflect that new supply of money.

從根本上說，如果我們將一切簡化，我們已經向經濟中投入了大量的資金，現在又有了這麼多 2020 年之前沒有的額外資金，市場中的資產價格必須以某種方式進行調整，以反映新的資金供應。

And that's why the stock market has grown tremendously over the last couple of years.

這就是過去幾年股市大幅上漲的原因。

And even if you look at M3 money, you will see the exact same thing, that within a short period of time, M3 money has increased by about 7 trillion dollars since 2020.

即使你看看 M3 貨幣，你也會看到完全相同的情況，即自 2020 年以來，在很短的時間內，M3 貨幣增加了約 7 萬億美元。

There has been efforts made by the federal reserve to decrease the supply of money through quantitative tightening by getting that money out of the economy or letting its securities to mature, but it's taking a lot longer than we expected, and if you do that very fast, it easily can turn into a recession.

美聯儲一直在努力通過量化緊縮減少貨幣供應量，將貨幣從經濟中撤出，或讓其證券到期，但所花的時間比我們預期的要長很多。

So the Fed increases the supply of money through M1, that turns into multiple bank loans through fractional reserve banking, which increases M2, then M2 leads to the rise of M3, and since now the economy is filled with so much money, a good portion of that money, especially when we talk about the top 10%, they will check that money, they will invest it in the stock market.

是以，美聯儲通過 M1 增加貨幣供應量，通過部分準備金銀行業務轉化為多筆銀行貸款，從而增加 M2，然後 M2 導致 M3 的上升，由於現在經濟中充斥著如此之多的貨幣，這些貨幣中的很大一部分，尤其是當我們談論前 10%的人時，他們會檢查這些貨幣，將其投資於股票市場。

You might go and buy stuff that you don't need to impress people that you don't like, but mostly rich people, yes, they might also buy stuff they don't necessarily need, but a lot of them will check that money and will invest it in the stock market, and that is why you see that the stock market since 2020 has grown tremendously.

你可能會去買一些你不需要的東西來討好你不喜歡的人，但大多數有錢人，是的，他們可能也會買一些他們不一定需要的東西，但他們中的很多人都會把這些錢存入銀行，並將其投資於股市，這就是為什麼你會看到自 2020 年以來股市大幅增長的原因。

In other words, we can calmly say that, the dollar probably lost anything between 30-50% of its value over the last 5 years.

換句話說，我們可以平靜地說，在過去 5 年裡，美元可能貶值了 30-50% 。

So it's not the stock market's fault, but rather it's the fault of the system where we have created so much extra money to devalue our dollars, but the real question is that, why it wasn't reflected in the corporate earnings.

是以，這不是股市的錯，而是制度的錯，我們創造瞭如此多的額外貨幣，使美元貶值，但真正的問題是，為什麼這沒有反映在企業盈利中。

If we have increased the supply of money on one side, people have more money, they should have spent that money and corporate earnings would have increased.

如果我們增加了一方的貨幣供應量，人們就有了更多的錢，他們就應該花掉這些錢，企業收益也會增加。

Let me give you an example, if you go and buy the new iPhone, if you buy more stuff from Amazon, if you buy more whatever you buy, you get yourself a new Tesla, that means that these corporations now making more money, and that will be reflected in their revenue and profits at the end of the quarter or at the end of the year.

讓我給你舉個例子，如果你去買新 iPhone，如果你從亞馬遜買更多東西，如果你買更多東西，無論你買什麼，你給自己買了一輛新特斯拉，這意味著這些公司現在賺了更多的錢，這將反映在季度末或年底的收入和利潤中。

However, in the beginning of the video, we saw that the PE ratios are increasing, which means that those increases in the stock prices are not being reflected in the corporate earnings.

然而，在視頻的開頭，我們看到市盈率正在上升，這意味著股票價格的上漲並沒有反映在企業盈利上。

And that's because the velocity of money has been going down over the last couple of years.

這是因為在過去幾年裡，貨幣流通速度一直在下降。

The velocity of money is how fast the money is moving or circulating within the entire economy.

貨幣流通速度是指貨幣在整個經濟體內流動或循環的速度。

So on one side, we have M2 money and then we have the CPI or the inflation data on the top of it.

是以，一邊是 M2 貨幣，另一邊是 CPI 或通脹數據。

Usually you create the money, a certain amount of money, let's say you create 10 dollars within the economy.

通常情況下，你要創造貨幣，創造一定數量的貨幣，比方說，你要在經濟中創造 10 美元。

Now this 10 dollars will be changing hands, it will go from one person to another, to a third, to a fourth, and that 10 dollars can ultimately turn into 50 dollars, 80 dollars, 90 dollars, through fractional reserve banking, through changing hands, through circulating within the entire economy.

現在，這 10 美元將轉手，它將從一個人手中轉到另一個人手中，再轉到第三個人手中，再轉到第四個人手中，通過部分準備金銀行業務，通過轉手，通過在整個經濟中流通，這 10 美元最終可以變成 50 美元、80 美元、90 美元。

So the logic here is very simple, is that the CPI will always be higher than M2 money or the supply of money.

是以，這裡的邏輯非常簡單，即 CPI 將始終高於 M2 貨幣或貨幣供應量。

And it has been always historically like that.

So if you look at the crash of the 2001, the dot com bubble, there was a lot of demand for internet companies, but the supply of money was pretty much stable at that time.

是以，如果你回顧一下 2001 年的互聯網保麗龍崩潰，當時對互聯網公司的需求很大，但貨幣供應量卻基本穩定。

So that unhealthy demand for internet stocks back in 1990s and 1999 up until 2001 was created with the exact supply of money.

是以，早在 20 世紀 90 年代和 1999 年直至 2001 年，對互聯網股票的不健康需求就是通過精確的貨幣供應創造出來的。

When people realized that it's a bubble, they sold it and it crashed.

當人們意識到這是一個保麗龍時，他們賣掉了它，結果它崩潰了。

In 2008, the same scenario repeats, the supply of money, although that it was already increasingly growing faster than in the past, the demand for mortgage-backed securities and inflated assets back in 2008 was created through the exact same supply of money.

2008 年，同樣的情況再次出現，儘管貨幣供應量的增長速度已經越來越快，但 2008 年對抵押貸款支持證券和膨脹資產的需求是通過完全相同的貨幣供應量創造出來的。

But what you see very different here is that in 2020, suddenly, M2 money grows dramatically and it surpasses the CPI.

但與此截然不同的是，到 2020 年，M2 貨幣突然大幅增長，超過了 CPI。

Which means that we have created so much money and thrown it into the economy, but this money haven't circulated enough in the economy for the CPI to increase dramatically.

這意味著，我們創造了這麼多錢並將其投入經濟，但這些錢在經濟中的流通還不足以讓 CPI 大幅上升。

In other words, we supposed to have dramatically much more inflation than the inflation we already had.

換句話說，我們的通脹率應該比已經存在的通脹率高得多。

The money we have created in 2020 and 2021 hasn't yet circulated enough throughout the entire economy.

我們在 2020 年和 2021 年創造的貨幣還沒有在整個經濟中充分流通。

First of all, that could be a clear sign of a recession, because if people are not spending, maybe they are cautious, maybe they are afraid, maybe they want to keep their money in the bank account because they expect a crash or they expect a recession.

首先，這可能是經濟衰退的一個明顯跡象，因為如果人們不消費，也許他們是謹慎的，也許他們是害怕的，也許他們想把錢存在銀行賬戶裡，因為他們預計會發生崩盤或經濟衰退。

That could be one explanation for it, but the second explanation is that, yes, people haven't been spending, that is why corporate earnings haven't been growing much.

這可能是一種解釋，但第二種解釋是，是的，人們沒有消費，這就是為什麼企業盈利沒有太大增長。

You can't fool the average people, but you can fool investors.

你騙不了普通人，但你騙得了投資者。

If you have already created this money, it might not be reflected for example in the CPI report, but it will be reflected in the asset prices, and that's why you see house prices growing tremendously, stock market growing tremendously, but they tell you that inflation is about 2.7% and you have to deal with that.

如果你已經創造了這些貨幣，比如說，它可能不會反映在消費物價指數報告中，但會反映在資產價格中，這就是為什麼你看到房價大幅增長，股市大幅增長，但他們卻告訴你通脹率約為 2.7%，你必須面對這個問題。

The money has already entered the economy, and over the next couple of years, it will keep circulating much more often within the entire economy, and that's when the corporate earnings might be adjusted and reflect the current stock prices, but by that time, probably the stock market will grow even further.

這些錢已經進入了經濟領域，在接下來的幾年裡，它們會在整個經濟領域內更頻繁地流通，那時企業盈利可能會有所調整，並反映出當前的股票價格，但到那時，股市可能會進一步增長。

And that's why the stock market hasn't crashed, because professional investors look at the supply of money and they can do the basic math and understand that the dollar has lost too much of its value, that's why stock prices have grown dramatically.

這也是股市沒有崩潰的原因，因為專業投資者會看貨幣供應量，他們會做基本的數學運算，明白美元已經貶值太多，這就是股價大幅上漲的原因。

Now, is there a possibility of a correction?

Of course there is a possibility, they happen all the time, it happened in 2020, it happened in April of this year when Trump announced the liberation day, and another correction is possible, especially when we talk about AI companies, especially when we see some companies that have PE ratios of 500, 700, 800 or 1000, there is a possibility of a correction, but overall, the market will continue rising because it must reflect the supply of money, and that's why it's important for you to be in the market.

當然也有可能，這種情況時有發生，2020 年就發生過，今年 4 月特朗普宣佈解放日時也發生過，再次調整也是有可能的，特別是當我們談到人工智能公司時，特別是當我們看到一些公司的市盈率達到 500、700、800 或 1000 時，就有可能出現調整，但總體而言，市場會繼續上漲，因為它必須反映資金的供應情況，這就是為什麼你在市場中很重要。

You can go and invest in individual companies and make a lot of money, but if you can't do that, then please at least start investing in the safest investment possible, the S&P 500.

你可以去投資單個公司並賺大錢，但如果你做不到這一點，那麼請至少開始投資最安全的投資--標準普爾 500 指數。

So, a correction is possible, but a total stock market collapse is literally impossible at this point.

是以，修正是有可能的，但股市全面崩潰目前確實不可能。

That's it for today, don't forget to check the links in the description of this video.

今天就到這裡，別忘了查看本視頻描述中的鏈接。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.