Name: 即將發生的事情比 1929 年的大蕭條更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades)
Uploaded: 2025-08-06T18:05:40.000Z
Duration: 30 min 51 s

現在進行式

Over a hundred days has passed since Trump started his trade war against the rest of the world and it's already having serious negative implications on the entire US economy.

自特朗普發動針對世界其他國家的貿易戰以來，已經過去了一百多天，這已經對整個美國經濟產生了嚴重的負面影響。

And if this continues for another couple of years, it has the potential to entirely destroy the entire US economy.

如果這種情況再持續幾年，就有可能徹底摧毀整個美國經濟。

It might seem like I am exaggerating, but I am not.

也許我看起來有些誇張，但其實不然。

Here in this video, I am going to give you the facts, I am going to give you the numbers, I am going to explain how everything works and you will, by the end of the video, come to the exact same conclusion.

在本視頻中，我將為您提供事實、數字，並解釋一切是如何運作的，在視頻結束時，您將得出完全相同的結論。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

To understand what is happening, we have to understand a fundamental difference between what is a government deficit and what is a trade deficit.

要了解發生了什麼，我們必須瞭解政府赤字和貿易赤字之間的根本區別。

And these two things are not the exact same thing as they are often thrown in the media.

這兩件事並不完全相同，媒體經常把它們混為一談。

A government deficit is when the government overspends on anything.

The government is raising $5 trillion in taxes, but it's spending $7 trillion.

政府增加了 5 萬億美元的稅收，但支出卻高達 7 萬億美元。

That's purely the fault of the US government that cannot balance its books.

這完全是美國政府的過錯，因為它無法平衡賬目。

On the other side, we have something called a trade deficit.

另一方面，我們有一種叫做貿易赤字的東西。

And a trade deficit is US businesses doing business with the rest of the world.

而貿易赤字是美國企業與世界其他國家做生意的結果。

The United States buys a trillion dollars worth of products more than it sells to the rest of the world.

美國購買的產品價值達萬億美元，超過了向世界其他國家出售的價值。

And at first glance, it seems like a real problem.

We want the rest of the world to buy from the United States as much as the US buying from everyone else.

我們希望世界其他國家向美國採購，就像美國向其他國家採購一樣。

This trade deficit is one of the most important ways that the United States keeps itself as the world's largest economy.

貿易逆差是美國保持世界最大經濟體地位的最重要途徑之一。

Because if it wasn't for this trade deficit, the US dollar cannot possibly be the global currency reserve.

因為如果沒有貿易赤字，美元就不可能成為全球貨幣儲備。

So it's extremely important that the United States runs a trade deficit.

是以，美國出現貿易逆差是極其重要的。

Now, this sounds controversial, and it sounds illogical, and a lot of you are already in the comment section want to blame me and call me whatever names you want to call me.

現在，這聽起來有爭議，聽起來不合邏輯，你們中的很多人已經在評論區指責我，想罵我什麼就罵我什麼。

But listen very carefully to the end of the video to understand how it works.

不過，請仔細聆聽視頻結尾，瞭解它是如何工作的。

The logic behind the current administration is that we are going to impose tariffs and we are going to raise money from these tariffs in order to close the deficit that the government has. 6.8 trillion dollars is being spent, 5 trillion dollars in revenue being raised from taxes and other sources, that leaves the government with a deficit of almost 1.9 trillion dollars.

本屆政府背後的邏輯是，我們要徵收關稅，我們要從這些關稅中籌集資金，以彌補政府的赤字。6.8 萬億美元的支出，5 萬億美元的稅收和其他來源的收入，這使得政府的赤字接近 1.9 萬億美元。

So, if the United States right now importing almost 4 trillion dollars, and we impose hypothetically, let's say that 10 percent baseline tax, that already raises 400 billion dollars for the government and that closes partially the deficit.

是以，如果美國現在進口將近 4 萬億美元，我們假設徵收 10%的基準稅，這已經為政府籌集了 4000 億美元，並部分彌補了赤字。

But that baseline is just 10 percent of tariffs, for some countries, it can go to 20 percent, for some countries, it can go to 30, 40, and in case of China, right now, it's around 125 or 145 percent, some sources say that the real tariff is like 85 percent, but the higher it is, the more revenue you are going to generate from those imports.

但這個基線只是 10%的關稅，對有些國家來說，它可以達到 20%，對有些國家來說，它可以達到 30%、40%，而對中國來說，現在大約是 125%或 145%，有些消息來源說實際關稅是 85%，但關稅越高，你從這些進口產品中獲得的收入就越多。

But here is the most important thing is that, when you are importing something and the tariff raises for that product, the final price rises, which means that the more tariffs you are going to impose, the lower this number is going to be, the less imports will come to the US.

但最重要的是，當你進口某樣東西，而該產品的關稅提高時，最終價格就會上漲，這意味著你徵收的關稅越多，這個數字就會越低，美國的進口量就會越少。

Now it's 4 trillion dollars, it can go down to 3 trillion dollars, 2 trillion dollars, 1 trillion dollars, and the revenue for the government is going to keep going down.

現在是 4 萬億美元，還可以降到 3 萬億美元、2 萬億美元、1 萬億美元，而政府的收入會不斷減少。

So this strategy might seem like a practical way to solve the problem, in reality, over the long run, just in 10 years, this strategy is not going to work.

是以，這一策略看似是解決問題的實用方法，但實際上，從長遠來看，僅在 10 年內，這一策略是行不通的。

But that's not the biggest problem, the real problem, if you dig down into this strategy, it is fundamentally going to destroy the US dollar as the global currency reserve.

但這還不是最大的問題，真正的問題是，如果你深入研究這一戰略，它將從根本上摧毀美元作為全球貨幣儲備的地位。

Nothing is going to hurt the dollar as much as this strategy.

沒有什麼比這一策略更能傷害美元了。

If you look at the rest of the world, rest of the world trades with each other.

放眼世界其他國家，它們之間也有貿易往來。

So we have a bunch of countries, we have China, France, the European Union, the UK, Indonesia, India, and all those countries have to trade with each other.

是以，我們有很多國家，我們有中國、法國、歐盟、英國、印度尼西亞、印度，所有這些國家都必須相互貿易。

Some of these countries, for example, produce real great cars, such as BMW, Mercedes from Germany.

例如，其中一些國家生產真正的好車，如德國的寶馬、奔馳。

China produces literally everything, electrical cars, toys, doughs, solar panels, you name it.

中國生產的產品包羅萬象，電動汽車、玩具、麵糰、太陽能電池板，應有盡有。

France, for example, produces nuclear technology, airbus planes, and so on and so forth.

例如，法國生產核技術、空中客車飛機等等。

And these countries have to trade with each other somehow, and they have to use a currency.

這些國家之間必須以某種方式進行貿易，而且必須使用一種貨幣。

Right now, they are using the dollar, because the dollar is the global currency reserve, and it makes logical sense.

現在，他們使用美元，因為美元是全球貨幣儲備，這在邏輯上是合理的。

Now the question is that, where do you think those countries are going to get their dollars from?

現在的問題是，你認為這些國家從哪裡獲得美元？

So there must be a way for all of those countries, in order for them to trade between themselves to get the dollars first from somewhere, and they will get it from the United States.

是以，所有這些國家都必須有一種方法，以便它們之間進行貿易，首先從某個地方獲得美元，而它們將從美國獲得美元。

But it doesn't work like, it's not that the United States is going to send a ship filled with containers that has so many dollars to other countries for them to be able to trade with each other.

但這並不可行，並不是說美國要把裝滿貨櫃的船運到其他國家，讓他們可以相互貿易，這裡面有很多美元。

So they must sell something in the United States, and in exchange, they will get those dollars, and then they will have the dollars, so they can trade with each other.

是以，他們必須在美國出售一些東西，作為交換，他們將得到這些美元，然後他們將擁有美元，這樣他們就可以相互進行貿易。

Germany, for example, can sell in the United States BMWs.

例如，德國可以在美國銷售寶馬汽車。

Saudi Arabia can sell in the United States oil.

沙特阿拉伯可以在美國出售石油。

France can sell to the United States nuclear technology.

China can sell iPhones, laptops, technology, whatever, you name it.

中國可以出售蘋果手機、筆記本電腦、技術等，只要你能想到的。

And that's why the United States is running such a huge trade deficit, because the United States has to run this trade deficit to make sure that the rest of the world have enough dollars to trade between themselves.

這就是為什麼美國會出現如此巨大的貿易赤字，因為美國必須通過貿易赤字來確保世界其他國家有足夠的美元進行貿易。

Wait a second, what advantage does that give the United States?

等等，這給美國帶來了什麼好處？

Does the United States have to do charity work to sacrifice itself for the rest of the world?

美國是否必須做慈善工作，為世界其他國家犧牲自己？

It actually provides the United States a real great advantage.

這實際上為美國提供了真正的巨大優勢。

While the rest of the world has to produce something, like the value that they produce are the cars, the oil, or any kind of products.

而世界其他國家必鬚生產一些東西，比如他們生產的汽車、石油或任何產品的價值。

But what value the United States produces?

It simply prints those dollars and gives those dollars to those countries.

它只需印製這些美元，並將這些美元交給這些國家。

And that is the value the United States produces.

So when you see a trade imbalance or a trade deficit that the United States has, it is not a problem at all.

是以，當你看到美國出現貿易失衡或貿易逆差時，這根本不是問題。

There must be trade imbalance for the rest of the world to use the dollar as the global currency reserve.

必須存在貿易不平衡，世界其他國家才會使用美元作為全球貨幣儲備。

And that's why the United States can simply buy everything and it doesn't have to produce that much.

這就是為什麼美國可以簡單地購買一切，而不必生產那麼多。

And that's why the United States has 5% of the global population but it consumes 25% of the global resources.

這就是為什麼美國人口占全球人口的 5%，卻消耗了全球 25% 的資源。

Another advantage that it gives the United States in this entire system is that doing business in the United States makes it much easier in the United States.

在整個體系中，美國的另一個優勢是，在美國經商會使在美國做生意變得更加容易。

So, suppose you want to bring dollars from China.

所以，假設你想從中國帶美元過來。

What currency you are going to use to pay the Chinese people in order to buy those dollars from Alibaba, for example?

例如，為了從阿里巴巴購買這些美元，你打算用什麼貨幣支付給中國人？

You can literally just go to a Citibank or a JP Morgan, get a loan and pay someone in China to get those dollars and you have a successful business in the US.

您只需到花旗銀行或摩根大通銀行申請貸款，然後付錢給中國的某個人以獲得這些美元，您就可以在美國成功地開展業務。

Can the person in China do the exact same thing?

在中國的人也能做同樣的事情嗎？

Can they borrow Chinese Yuan and pay you in the United States with Chinese Yuan?

他們能借到人民幣，然後在美國用人民幣付給你嗎？

No, you are not going to accept those Chinese Yuan.

不，你們不能接受這些人民幣。

So making business is much easier with US dollars and you don't have to hustle with those currency exchanges and they have their problems as well.

是以，用美元做生意要容易得多，你也不必忙於那些貨幣兌換，它們也有自己的問題。

That also gives the United States two primary advantages.

So, the main exports of the United States are not the oil or steel or electrical cars but the United States mostly exports the US dollar.

是以，美國的主要出口不是石油、鋼鐵或電動汽車，而是主要出口美元。

That piece of paper that the United States prints, the Federal Reserve, that is the main export of the United States.

美國印製的那張紙，即美聯儲，是美國的主要出口產品。

The main exports of Germany are cars, BMWs, Mercedes, Porsche.

德國的主要出口產品是汽車、寶馬、奔馳和保時捷。

The main exports of Middle Eastern countries are oil and gas.

中東國家的主要出口產品是石油和天然氣。

The main exports of European countries are some kind of technologies.

歐洲國家的主要出口產品是某種技術。

The main exports of China are electrical cars, solar panels, iPhones.

中國的主要出口產品是電動汽車、太陽能電池板和蘋果手機。

But the main export of the United States is the US dollar.

但美國的主要出口產品是美元。

The second advantage that it gives the United States is that it allows the United States to control the global banking.

它給美國帶來的第二個好處是，它使美國能夠控制全球銀行業。

There is a lot of hustle if you are actually doing with currency exchanges and that's why everybody simply prefers to use the dollar.

如果你真的要進行貨幣兌換，會有很多麻煩，這就是為什麼每個人都喜歡使用美元的原因。

It just makes the entire business globally way easier than any other country.

這使得在全球範圍內開展業務比在其他任何國家都要容易得多。

And that's what gives the United States so much power over the global financial system.

正因為如此，美國才對全球金融體系擁有如此大的影響力。

你明白這個系統是如何運作的嗎？

Do you see how important it is for the United States to literally run a huge trade deficit?

你知道美國的鉅額貿易赤字有多重要嗎？

Now, let's take a scenario where the United States is no longer going to run a trade deficit.

現在，讓我們假設美國不再出現貿易逆差。

Let's say that the United States is going to sell to the rest of the world as much as buying and there is zero trade deficit.

假設美國對世界其他國家的銷售與購買一樣多，而且貿易赤字為零。

There is going to be a shortage of dollars in the world and other countries, let's say be able to trade between themselves using the dollar.

世界上將會出現美元短缺，而其他國家，比方說，可以用美元進行貿易。

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即將發生的事情比 1929 年的大蕭條更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades)

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entire

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