Name: "開始為自己做準備......"--現在的經濟正變得瘋狂 ("Start PREPARING Yourself..." - The economy is getting crazy right now)
Uploaded: 2025-08-05T18:02:25.000Z
Duration: 25 min 52 s

形容詞最高級

One of the most beautiful things about the market is that it moves in cycles.

市場最美麗的地方之一就是它的週期性波動。

未來簡單式

Whatever grows will eventually fall down and whatever falls will eventually rise.

生長的終將倒下，倒下的終將升起。

So the market doesn't consistently rise, that happens over a very long period of time.

是以，市場不會持續上漲，這需要很長的時間。

But if you zoom in, there are always cycles, the market grows and then it falls down.

但如果放大來看，市場總是有周期的，一會兒增長，一會兒下降。

And whenever it falls down, it provides the investors with a very unique opportunity to buy really great stocks at a huge discount that allows them to profit from the market enormously.

而每當股市下跌時，就會給投資者提供一個非常難得的機會，讓他們以巨大的折扣買到真正的好股票，從而從市場中獲得巨大的利潤。

In fact, over a hundred years ago, we have created the Fed.

事實上，一百多年前，我們就創建了美聯儲。

And the job of the Fed is to tweak the system in such a way where that business cycle moves in such a way that it even more profits the investors.

而美聯儲的工作就是調整系統，使商業週期的運行方式更有利於投資者。

So we no longer have crises such as what happened back in the 1930s where the great depression lasted for over 10 years.

是以，我們不再有 20 世紀 30 年代那樣的危機，當時的大蕭條持續了 10 多年。

Right now, as we speak, the Federal Reserve is tweaking the system in such a way where we are just when the next growth is going to happen, so anyone with a very decent understanding of the market can jump in and make the right investments and profit enormously out of it.

現在，就在我們說話的時候，美聯儲正在以這樣一種方式對系統進行調整，讓我們知道下一次增長將在什麼時候發生，是以，任何對市場有很好了解的人都可以加入進來，進行正確的投資，並從中獲得巨大的利潤。

A quick glance at the S&P 500 clearly shows you that pattern.

只要看一眼標準普爾 500 指數，就能清楚地看到這種模式。

If you look overall, the market has been growing tremendously, but zooming in every time, you see that there are cycles, the market grows and it falls down, the market grows and it falls down, and it grows and then it falls down every single time.

如果你從整體上看，市場一直在大幅增長，但每次放大來看，你會發現市場是有周期的，市場增長，然後下跌，市場增長，然後下跌，每次都是增長，然後下跌。

Long-term investors benefit regardless of what happens because they have invested in the right assets and overall, as the economy keeps growing, as the technology keeps growing, the value of their assets keep growing.

無論發生什麼情況，長期投資者都能從中獲益，因為他們投資了正確的資產，而且總體而言，隨著經濟不斷增長，技術不斷髮展，他們的資產價值也在不斷增長。

But if you pay a very close attention, you will see a very clear correlation between how the market moves and the Federal Reserve's interest rates.

但如果你仔細觀察，就會發現市場走勢與美聯儲利率之間存在著非常明顯的相關性。

If you look at 2009, you see that the market started growing tremendously after that right up until 2020.

如果你看一下 2009 年的情況，就會發現市場在那之後開始大幅增長，一直持續到 2020 年。

If you look at the rates that are set by the Fed, you see the exact same thing.

如果你看看美聯儲設定的利率，就會發現情況完全一樣。

Back in 2009, the Fed lowered the interest rates to almost 0% and the highs that they have been ever since, when the Fed started tweaking and raising the interest rates in 2016, they went as high as 2% at best.

早在 2009 年，美聯儲就將利率下調至幾乎 0%，此後利率一直處於高位，當 2016 年美聯儲開始調整並提高利率時，利率最高曾達到 2%。

And that was reflected in the stock market, which is why we had one of the longest economic or the stock market growth in the entire history of the stock market.

這一點在股市中得到了體現，這也是為什麼在整個股市歷史上，我們的經濟或股市增長時間最長的原因之一。

From 2009 to 2020, the market just kept exploding, corporate profits kept rising, and corporations had a huge access to huge capital that allowed them to innovate.

從 2009 年到 2020 年，市場不斷爆炸，企業利潤不斷增長，企業可以獲得鉅額資金，從而進行創新。

This is the time when Apple became the world's largest company.

這就是蘋果公司成為全球最大公司的時代。

This is the time we had plenty of companies across the globe dominating the market.

在這個時代，全球有許多公司在市場上佔據主導地位。

Yes, in 2020, we had a crisis that destroyed the market, but the Fed quickly acted and lowered the interest rates to almost 0%.

是的，在 2020 年，我們遇到了一場摧毀市場的危機，但美聯儲迅速採取行動，將利率降至幾乎 0%。

And if you look at the S&P 500, the reflection of that was very clear.

如果你看看標準普爾 500 指數，就會發現這一點反映得非常清楚。

In 2022, the market crashed tremendously.

And if you look at the correlation with the Fed's rates, you see the exact same pattern that the rates have been grown to almost 5.5%.

如果你看一下與美聯儲利率的相關性，你會發現利率已經增長到近5.5%的模式完全相同。

So there is a very clear correlation between what's happening in the stock market and what's happening with the rates that are set by the Fed.

是以，股市的走勢與美聯儲設定的利率之間存在著非常明顯的相關性。

Yes, the rates that are set by the Fed impact the entire economy of the United States.

是的，美聯儲設定的利率影響著美國的整個經濟。

In fact, if we were going to be honest with each other, then the rates that are fed by the Fed impact the entire global economy.

事實上，如果我們彼此坦誠相待，那麼美聯儲的利率影響著整個全球經濟。

So whatever is happening with the US Fed is impacting everybody.

是以，無論美國聯邦儲備委員會發生什麼，都會影響到每個人。

I will tell you more than that, there are plenty of central banks all across the globe that set their interest rates according to what the Federal Reserve is doing, because every single currency around the world is being pecked to the dollar.

我還要告訴你，全球有很多中央銀行都在根據美聯儲的做法來設定利率，因為全世界的每一種貨幣都在被啄食美元。

Recently, the Chinese central bank has been moving quite differently from the United States, but they can afford that since they are the second largest economy and they are the second most powerful country economically, at least in the world.

最近，中國央行的行動與美國大相徑庭，但他們可以承受，因為他們是第二大經濟體，也是經濟實力第二強的國家，至少在世界上是這樣。

So if we understand how the Fed works, then we can actually make some really good predictions about where the S&P 500 is going to be, and that allows investors to make very good investments because they know how the market is going to react according to what the Fed is going to do.

是以，如果我們瞭解了美聯儲的運作方式，那麼我們實際上就可以對標準普爾500指數的走勢做出一些非常好的預測，從而讓投資者做出非常好的投資，因為他們知道市場會根據美聯儲的行動做出怎樣的反應。

Let me just give you one simple example how Feds rates actually impact the stock market.

讓我舉一個簡單的例子，說明美聯儲利率對股市的實際影響。

One of the most important things that you have to understand is the time value of money.

您必須瞭解的最重要的事情之一就是貨幣的時間價值。

Time has its own value, and the way we value time is because we give it a monetary valuation.

時間有其自身的價值，而我們之所以珍惜時間，是因為我們賦予了它貨幣價值。

That's how we actually can measure the value of the time, and you can debate about if it's accurate or not, but in the financial markets, we came out with a measurement in order to do that.

這就是我們衡量時間價值的方法，你可以爭論它是否準確，但在金融市場上，我們提出了一種衡量方法，以便做到這一點。

Imagine your friend owes you a hundred dollars, and let's call him Jimmy, and you ask Jimmy, when can I have my hundred dollars back?

想象一下，你的朋友欠你一百美元，我們叫他吉米，你問吉米，我什麼時候能拿回我的一百美元？

And your friend might say, listen, I don't have the money right now, in fact, I am broke, so I can't give you back your hundred dollars, but if you give me one year, I will give it back to you.

你的朋友可能會說，聽著，我現在沒有錢，事實上，我已經破產了，所以我不能把你的一百美元還給你，但如果你給我一年時間，我會把錢還給你的。

Well, do you think that a hundred dollars a year from now is going to worth the exact same hundred dollars today?

那麼，你認為一年後的一百美元會和現在的一百美元一樣值錢嗎？

Yes, your friend will give you the exact same hundred dollars, but a year from now, that hundred dollars can buy less things, that's because we have something called inflation.

是的，你的朋友會給你完全相同的 100 美元，但一年後，這 100 美元能買的東西就少了，這是因為我們有一種叫做通貨膨脹的東西。

In fact, over the last 20 years, the dollar itself lost 70% of its value, and that's why you see wages rise, that's why you see the price of goods are rising, and the cost of living have risen tremendously.

事實上，在過去 20 年裡，美元本身貶值了 70%，這就是為什麼你會看到工資上漲，這就是為什麼你會看到商品價格上漲，生活成本大幅上升。

Twenty years ago, a hundred dollars could get you a lot of things, today, a hundred dollars is not so much money.

二十年前，一百美元可以買到很多東西，而今天，一百美元已經不是那麼多錢了。

You can take the hundred dollars today and you can invest it and you can make some returns.

你可以把今天的一百美元拿去投資，你就能獲得一些回報。

You can buy a government bond and you are guaranteed to make some kind of returns.

您可以購買政府債券，並保證獲得某種回報。

There are certain banks around the country that provide you with an interest rate of 4.5% or maybe in some cases, up to 5%, so you are losing on the opportunity cost.

全國有一些銀行為您提供 4.5% 的利率，有時甚至高達 5%，是以您會損失機會成本。

Which is why we can confidently come to a very simple conclusion, that a dollar today worth much more than a dollar tomorrow.

是以，我們可以自信地得出一個非常簡單的結論：今天的一美元比明天的一美元值錢得多。

I would much more prefer to have my hundred dollars today so that I can invest it and make a profit out of it.

我更希望今天就能拿到我的一百美元，這樣我就可以用它來投資，從中獲利。

Of course, we are taking a very small amount of money, which is a hundred dollars in this example, just to understand the point.

當然，我們拿的是一筆很小的錢，在這個例子中是 100 美元，只是為了理解這一點。

You can take this exact same logic and you can apply it to much bigger amounts, such as a hundred million dollars or two hundred million dollars or a hundred billion dollars.

你可以把這個完全相同的邏輯應用到更大的金額上，比如一億美元、兩億美元或一千億美元。

So if we do the math and assume that the interest rates are 10% in this case, yeah, let's just imagine a hypothetical scenario where the interest rates are 10%.

是以，如果我們計算一下，假設在這種情況下利率為 10%，是的，讓我們想象一下利率為 10%的假設情況。

I mean, hopefully interest rates will never be 10% because that is going to have a devastating impact on the entire market and the economy.

我的意思是，希望利率永遠不要達到 10%，因為那將對整個市場和經濟產生毀滅性的影響。

But just for the sake of this example, let's imagine that interest rates are 10%.

但在這個例子中，我們假設利率為 10%。

What is going to be the true value of this hundred dollars a year from now?

這 100 美元一年後的真正價值是多少？

If we include all those factors, now in this example, we are not taking multiple factors, we are going to just take one simple factor to simplify the entire concept.

如果我們把所有這些因素都包括在內，那麼在這個例子中，我們不會考慮多個因素，我們只考慮一個簡單的因素，以簡化整個概念。

A year from now, the value of a hundred dollars is going to be 90 dollars and 91 cents.

一年後，100 美元的價值將是 90 美元 91 分。

Let's summarize that amount to 91 dollars.

讓我們把這個數字概括為 91 美元。

So even though a year from now you are getting the exact same hundred dollars that you loaned to your friend, it's real value and what you can buy from it is going to be 91 dollars.

是以，即使一年後你得到的是借給朋友的 100 美元，它的實際價值和你能買到的東西也將是 91 美元。

Now let's compare that and imagine that the next day you meet your friend and you tell him, listen, if you give me back my hundred dollars a year from now, it's real value is going to be 91 dollars.

現在我們來比較一下，想象一下，第二天你見到你的朋友，你告訴他，聽著，如果你一年後把我的 100 美元還給我，它的實際價值將是 91 美元。

So maybe you have to give me an extra 9 dollars to make up for the losses that I will have because the money is still with you.

所以，也許你得多給我 9 美元，以彌補我的損失，因為錢還在你那裡。

Your friend is going to tell you, have you seen the news that the fed has lowered down interest rates from 10% to 5%.

你的朋友會告訴你，你有沒有看到美聯儲將利率從 10%下調至 5%的新聞。

And now let's take a scenario, what is going to be the real value of that hundred dollars assuming that the interest rates are going to be 5%.

假設利率為 5%，這 100 美元的實際價值是多少？

In that case, suddenly the real value of that hundred dollars a year from now is going to rise to 95 dollars and 25 cents.

在這種情況下，一年後這 100 美元的實際價值會突然上升到 95 美元 25 分。

是以，沒有什麼根本性的變化。

Just because the fed lowered down interest rates from 10% to 5%, suddenly the future valuation of the money that we have today is going to rise, at least on paper.

僅僅因為美聯儲將利率從 10%下調至 5%，我們今天所擁有的貨幣的未來估值就會突然上升，至少在紙面上是這樣。

And that is a reality because everybody knows that there is something called inflation and everybody knows that any money should not be sitting around and should be invested.

這就是現實，因為每個人都知道有一種東西叫通貨膨脹，每個人都知道任何錢都不應該閒置，而應該投資。

And if it's even invested in the safest way possible, you can get the rates that are set by the fed.

如果能以最安全的方式進行投資，你就能獲得美聯儲設定的利率。

There is something called the bone market and that is one of the best ways to loan your money to the US government.

有一種叫 "骨市場 "的東西，是把錢借給美國政府的最佳方式之一。

And unlike your friend who can barely pay back your hundred dollars, the federal reserve has hundreds or the US government has hundreds of millions of taxpayers who will pay taxes to the US government and the US government can safely return the money back to you.

你的朋友幾乎還不起你的一百美元，但聯邦儲備局有數百或美國政府有數億納稅人，他們會向美國政府納稅，美國政府可以安全地把錢還給你。

Which is why if you loan that money to the US government, you can loan it at the exact same rate as the fed does to the government of the United States.

這就是為什麼如果你把錢貸給美國政府，你可以以與美聯儲貸給美國政府完全相同的利率貸款。

So you can guaranteed get that 5% that are set by the fed.

是以，你可以保證拿到美聯儲規定的 5%。

And now let's take this very simple concept and apply it to the stock market.

現在，讓我們把這個非常簡單的概念應用到股市中。

So whatever stock you are looking at, it's not just a symbol that you see on your computer, it's literally a printing machine.

是以，無論你看到的是什麼股票，它都不僅僅是你在電腦上看到的一個符號，它實際上是一臺印刷機。

That's how we view as investors when we look at the stock market.

作為投資者，我們就是這樣看待股市的。

Yes, maybe a tech guy will look at NVIDIA and will say what a great technology that NVIDIA has created.

是的，也許技術人員看了英偉達公司後會說，英偉達公司創造了多麼偉大的技術。

Maybe some kind of economist will look at NVIDIA and will say what a great company you built.

也許會有經濟學家看了英偉達公司後會說，你們建立了一家多麼偉大的公司。

Or an entrepreneur will look at NVIDIA and will praise its CEO.

或者，企業家看到英偉達公司，會稱讚其首席執行官。

But we as investors do not look at stocks like that.

但作為投資者，我們不會這樣看待股票。

So we want to ask ourselves a question, how much money will this printing machine is going to create in the future?

是以，我們想問自己一個問題：這臺印刷機將來會創造多少財富？

So if we assume just hypothetically that this company is going to exist for the next ten years and if we expect this company to make a certain amount of money, then the value of the business and the stock that we see right in front of us is the sum of all of that money.

是以，如果我們假設這家公司將在未來十年內存在，如果我們預期這家公司將賺取一定數額的資金，那麼我們眼前的企業和股票的價值就是所有這些資金的總和。

For example, if we look at NVIDIA, NVIDIA stock is being traded at $135 at least at the time that I am recording this video.

例如，如果我們看看英偉達，至少在我錄製這段視頻時，英偉達股票的交易價格為 135 美元。

But does this price really reflect the true valuation of NVIDIA?

但是，這個價格真的反映了英偉達的真實估值嗎？

In order to do the math, all we have to ask ourselves is that how much money NVIDIA is hypothetically going to make over the course of the next whatever time that NVIDIA is going to exist throughout its entire existence.

為了計算出這一數字，我們只需要問自己，英偉達在未來的任何時間裡，假設能賺到多少錢。

But we can't literally make that kind of conclusion because we can't know for a fact the future.

但我們不能從字面上得出這樣的結論，因為我們無法確切知道未來。

But we can make estimates, we can make forecasts.

但我們可以做出估計，可以做出預測。

So if we assume for example that NVIDIA is going to make let's say $1 billion over the course of its existence, all we have to do is that use the exact same formula and ask ourself a question.

是以，如果我們假設英偉達公司在其發展過程中將賺取 10 億美元，我們所要做的就是使用完全相同的公式，然後問自己一個問題。

What is going to be the real value of that future billion dollars that NVIDIA is going to make?

英偉達未來賺取的 10 億美元的真正價值是多少？

And as the Fed raises their interest rates or lowers down their interest rates, the true value of this billion dollars is going to rise or it's going to fall down.

隨著美聯儲提高利率或降低利率，這 10 億美元的真實價值會上升或下降。

And based on that, we can make our calculation what should be the real price of NVIDIA.

在此基礎上，我們可以計算出英偉達的實際價格。

And if we expect the Federal Reserve to lower down for example interest rates, then we can certainly say that whatever money NVIDIA is going to make, the value of that future cash flow of NVIDIA is going to rise because the Fed have lowered down interest rates.

如果我們預期美聯儲會降低利率，那麼我們可以肯定地說，無論英偉達將賺到多少錢，英偉達未來現金流的價值都會上升，因為美聯儲已經降低了利率。

And this is just an example with NVIDIA, you can take any other example.

這只是英偉達的一個例子，你還可以舉其他任何例子。

You can take Tesla, you can take Palantir that probably doesn't make much money and yet its valuation is insane but that's a story for another video.

你可以拿特斯拉說事，你也可以拿 Palantir 說事，它可能賺不了多少錢，但其估值卻高得離譜，不過這是另一個視頻的故事了。

So the companies that promised to make or expected to make much more money in the future, their valuation instantly rises as the Fed lowers down interest rates.

是以，那些承諾或預期未來會賺更多錢的公司，其估值會隨著美聯儲降低利率而立即上升。

According to UBS, NVIDIA is going to make next year 147 billion dollars.

根據瑞銀集團（UBS）的預測，英偉達明年的利潤將達到 1470 億美元。

There are different kind of estimates of how much NVIDIA is going to make.

關於英偉達將賺多少錢，有各種不同的估計。

Some estimates put NVIDIA's future or next year's revenue at 200 billion dollars and some went as far as putting it at 250 billion dollars.

據估計，英偉達公司未來或明年的收入將達到 2000 億美元，有些甚至達到了 2500 億美元。

I understand why they came out with those numbers because there is a very good reason for that.

我理解他們為什麼提出這些數字，因為這是有充分理由的。

There is a lot of demand that is coming from all across the globe and there isn't a single technology company across the globe that can produce such high quality and advanced GPUs like NVIDIA is doing today.

全球各地都有大量的需求，而目前全球還沒有一家技術公司能像英偉達公司一樣生產出如此高質量和先進的 GPU。

So all the demand is going directly into the pockets of NVIDIA.

是以，所有的需求都直接進入了英偉達的口袋。