Name: 為什麼所有百萬富翁都在為滯脹做準備？ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Stagflation)
Uploaded: 2025-08-05T17:53:21.000Z
Duration: 22 min 17 s

The US economy is on the brink of stagflation.

情態副詞

Stagflation is the worst thing that could possibly happen to the economy.

滯脹是經濟可能發生的最糟糕的事情。

程度副詞

Because getting out of the stagflation is really difficult.

Last time the United States experienced a stagflation, it lasted for almost 10 years.

上一次美國經歷滯脹，持續了近 10 年。

And the federal reserve had to increase the interest rates to almost 20 percent to finally crush inflation.

聯邦儲備局不得不將利率提高到近 20%，以最終壓制通貨膨脹。

And it took almost a decade to fix that problem.

花了近十年的時間才解決了這個問題。

So if the United States this time is also going to experience stagflation, then we are looking into one of the worst crises in the history of the United States.

是以，如果美國這次也將經歷滯脹，那麼我們將面臨美國曆史上最嚴重的危機之一。

But if you position yourself correctly, you will not only just protect yourself, but you also stand a chance to profit out of it.

但如果定位正確，你不僅能保護自己，還有機會從中獲利。

Now, you might say that I am exaggerating with these claims, but if you give a closer look to the US economy, you will see very clear signs of stagflation.

現在，你可能會說我的這些說法誇大其詞，但如果你仔細觀察一下美國經濟，就會發現非常明顯的滯脹跡象。

Stagflation doesn't just randomly happen out of nowhere.

There are clear signs that the US economy is headed into that.

有明顯跡象表明，美國經濟正在走向這一步。

If the US government and the federal reserve will take the right steps, it is very possible to avoid that stagflation.

如果美國政府和美聯儲能採取正確的措施，就很有可能避免滯脹。

But based on what I see that is happening, there isn't a single indicator that either the federal reserve or the government of the United States is trying to avoid this stagflation.

但根據我所看到的情況，沒有任何跡象表明聯邦儲備局或美國政府正在努力避免這種滯脹。

In fact, I would tell you more than that, it seems like the US government right now is doing everything possible for the United States to experience that stagflation.

事實上，我想告訴你的不止於此，美國政府現在似乎正在竭盡全力讓美國經歷滯脹。

Stagflation is when inflation is rising on one side, on the other side, the economy is falling down.

滯脹是指一邊是通脹上升，另一邊是經濟下滑。

Overall, when inflation rises, the economy rises as well.

總體而言，通脹上升時，經濟也會上升。

Because inflation rises as a result of people spending their money.

因為人們花錢的結果是通貨膨脹率上升。

More people spending money, more economic opportunity, more economic growth.

更多的人花錢，更多的經濟機會，更多的經濟增長。

But in this case, we have a very interesting scenario that inflation is rising, but people are not spending that much money, so the economy contracts and it shrinks.

但在這種情況下，我們有一個非常有趣的情景，即通脹在上升，但人們並沒有花那麼多錢，是以經濟收縮，經濟萎縮。

And that's why it's so dangerous to be in that situation.

這就是為什麼在這種情況下會如此危險。

If you go back to the US history, you will see that from 1970s and early 1980s, for almost about 10 years, the United States had some of the highest inflation in history.

如果回顧美國曆史，你會發現從 20 世紀 70 年代到 80 年代初，差不多有 10 年左右的時間，美國的通貨膨脹率是歷史上最高的。

Now take this inflation and compare it to today or the rest of the period after that, and you will see that inflation during that period wasn't this high.

現在將這一通脹率與今天或之後的其他時期進行比較，你會發現那一時期的通脹率並沒有這麼高。

At its peak, inflation has reached almost 14 percent.

And it wasn't just one single year of 14 percent inflation, like we had in 2022 when inflation reached 9.5 percent or 9.4 percent.

通脹率達到 14% 的年份並非只有一年，就像 2022 年通脹率達到 9.5% 或 9.4%。

Back in 1974, inflation also was double digits, and for multiple years, it was very high.

1974 年，通貨膨脹率也是兩位數，而且連續多年居高不下。

At the same time, if you look at the economic growth, you won't see a huge economic growth or whatsoever.

同時，如果你看一下經濟增長，你不會看到巨大的經濟增長或其他什麼。

And the easiest way to measure that is by looking at the unemployment rate.

最簡單的衡量方法就是看失業率。

So unemployment rate in early 1970s was 6 percent.

是以，20 世紀 70 年代初的失業率為 6%。

For comparison, unemployment rate today is about 4.2 percent.

相比之下，今天的失業率約為 4.2%。

You can clearly see that unemployment in early 1970s was very high.

您可以清楚地看到，20 世紀 70 年代初的失業率非常高。

But that was just the beginning because unemployment kept rising.

但這僅僅是個開始，因為失業率不斷攀升。

In 1975, it almost reached like 8 to 9 percent.

Back in 1981 or 82, it reached almost 11 percent.

早在 1981 年或 1982 年，這一比例就達到了近 11%。

So this was clearly a decade of high unemployment and when people are not working, they don't have jobs, then the economy is surely not growing and it's actually contracting.

是以，這顯然是失業率居高不下的十年，而當人們不工作、沒有工作時，經濟肯定不會增長，實際上是在萎縮。

So why on earth did we have such a strange situation?

那麼，我們究竟為什麼會遇到這種奇怪的情況呢？

On the other side, unemployment is going down.

Now, the only way to fix this problem was that the federal reserve had to jump in and take very strict measures.

現在，解決這個問題的唯一辦法是，聯邦儲備局必須跳出來，採取非常嚴格的措施。

The measures that the fed took back in the days are very strict compared to today.

與今天相比，美聯儲當年採取的措施非常嚴格。

Because first of all, they tried to increase the interest rates to 13 percent.

因為首先，他們試圖將利率提高到 13%。

People are complaining about interest rates today, but take the 4.5 percent that we have and compare it to 13 percent, and you can see a clear difference.

如今，人們對利率怨聲載道，但拿我們現在的 4.5%與 13%相比，你就能看到明顯的差別。

But it didn't work out because in the following years, they tried to lower down interest rates to about 5 percent because high interest rates are preventing the economy from growing.

但結果並不理想，因為在接下來的幾年裡，他們試圖將利率降至 5% 左右，因為高利率阻礙了經濟增長。

And yet inflation got out of control again and Paul Walker had to raise the interest rates to almost 20 percent to fix that inflation.

然而，通貨膨脹再次失控，保羅-沃克不得不將利率提高到近20%，以解決通貨膨脹問題。

Just for the context that prior to that, the US had very moderate interest rates of about 2 to 3 percent.

在此之前，美國的利率非常適中，約為 2%至 3%。

So it happened for multiple reasons because back in 1970s, the United States went through multiple economic crises, if you want to call it like that.

發生這種情況有多種原因，因為早在 20 世紀 70 年代，美國就經歷了多次經濟危機，如果你想這麼說的話。

First of all, 1971, the United States abandons the gold standard and the value of the dollar instantly diminishes.

首先，1971 年，美國放棄金本位制，美元瞬間貶值。

In 1970s, the Middle Eastern countries stopped supplying the United States with oil.

20 世紀 70 年代，中東國家停止向美國供應石油。

It's today that the United States is the world's largest producer of oil.

如今，美國已成為世界上最大的石油生產國。

Back in 1970s, the United States was heavily dependent on countries such as Saudi Arabia and the neighboring countries to import its oil.

早在 20 世紀 70 年代，美國就嚴重依賴沙特阿拉伯和鄰國等國家進口石油。

Those countries no longer import oil to export oil to the United States.

這些國家不再為向美國出口石油而進口石油。

You have huge price increases in oil prices, which created that inflation.

石油價格的大幅上漲造成了通貨膨脹。

And there were other crises that helped to grow this inflation.

還有其他一些危機助長了這種通貨膨脹。

So it was fixed at the end of the day, but it took almost 10 years.

所以最後還是修好了，但花了將近 10 年的時間。

And if you look at the US economy today, you can see very clear and very similar signs that we might be experiencing something similar to that.

如果你看看今天的美國經濟，就會發現非常明顯、非常相似的跡象，表明我們可能正在經歷類似的事情。

First of all, we might already be in a recession and we simply don't know about it.

首先，我們可能已經陷入衰退，但我們卻渾然不知。

And it's normal because we don't have all the data instantly.

這很正常，因為我們無法立即掌握所有數據。

The bureau of labor statistics, the bureau of economic analysis, they try to get us the best possible data as soon as possible.

勞工統計局和經濟分析局都會盡快為我們提供最好的數據。

But those data can easily be revised later on when additional data kicks in.

但這些數據很容易在以後有更多數據時進行修改。

So if you look at the GDP growth, you see that there is a contraction in the GDP growth.

是以，如果你看看國內生產總值的增長，就會發現國內生產總值的增長出現了收縮。

Negative 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.

A recession when you have two negative GDP growth that are consecutive.

當國內生產總值連續兩次出現負增長時，就是經濟衰退。

So if the second GDP growth quarter is also negative, then you are officially in a recession.

是以，如果第二個季度的 GDP 增長也是負數，那麼就正式進入了衰退期。

But if you look at the data, it was about 3%.

但如果你看一下數據，大約是 3%。

However, here's what is interesting to pay attention to is that the jobs reports have been revised both for the May and June.

不過，值得注意的是，5 月和 6 月的就業報告都經過了修訂。

So first they told us that, oh, we have 145,000 or 150,000 number of jobs being added in both of these months.

是以，他們首先告訴我們，哦，這兩個月新增了 14.5 萬或 15 萬個就業崗位。

And now they got additional data and they found out that it's not true that the number of jobs were added during this period was 19,000 for June and 14,000 for May, which is very, very small.

現在，他們得到了更多的數據，發現在此期間新增的工作崗位數量並不真實，6 月份為 19,000 個，5 月份為 14,000 個，數量非常非常少。

It is probably the lowest number of jobs that are being added in a very long time.

這可能是很長時間以來新增就業崗位最少的一次。

For July, the numbers are like 73,000 and this number could easily be revised later on when additional data kicks in.

7 月份的數據為 73,000 人，而這一數字很容易在以後的補充數據中得到修正。

So the trend is very clear that less jobs are being added and the economy is contracting because everything is happening.

是以，新增就業崗位減少、經濟萎縮的趨勢非常明顯，因為一切都在發生。

Part of them is, of course, tariffs, but it's not just about the tariffs.

其中一部分當然是關稅，但這不僅僅是關稅的問題。

It could simply be that the US economy is slowing down after that huge boom that it got in 2020 and 2021.

這可能只是因為美國經濟在經歷了 2020 年和 2021 年的巨大繁榮後正在放緩。

Yes, that contraction started back in 2022 because the data on that is very clear.

是的，這種收縮早在 2022 年就開始了，因為這方面的數據非常清楚。

Unemployment has been going down since then.

If in another couple of months, we have additional data and we find out that we are in recession, that is part of what stagflation is.

如果再過幾個月，我們有了更多的數據，發現我們陷入了衰退，這就是滯脹的一部分。

Now let's take a look at the second component.

現在讓我們來看看第二個組成部分。

However, based on the recent data, inflation right now, adjusted to the last 12 months, is about 2.7%.

不過，根據最近的數據，目前的通脹率（按過去 12 個月調整）約為 2.7%。

And this number isn't actually really huge.

Especially if you compare this number to what was happening back in 1970s and early 1980s, then 2.7% is actually really great.

特別是如果將這一數字與 20 世紀 70 年代和 80 年代初的情況相比，那麼 2.7%其實已經非常不錯了。

You see, CPI also within itself includes services.

要知道，CPI 本身也包括服務業。

But there are different, let's say, methods to manipulate those numbers.

但是，可以說有不同的方法來操作這些數字。

If you look at how an average person spends his money, you will see that this is the total paycheck and almost 70% of that paycheck goes into paying off the services.

如果你看看一個普通人是如何花錢的，就會發現這是工資總額，而工資的近 70% 都用於支付服務費用。

So if inflation for services is rising faster than inflation on the goods, then maybe the inflation is a bit higher than that.

是以，如果服務業的通脹率比商品的通脹率上升得更快，那麼通脹率可能會比商品的通脹率更高一些。

But overall, those numbers are still manipulated to a certain extent.

但總體而言，這些數字仍在一定程度上受到操縱。

Inflation for services right now, adjusted to the last 12 months, is about 4%.

目前，服務業的通貨膨脹率（按過去 12 個月調整）約為 4%。

So the average Americans are actually paying way more.

是以，普通美國人實際上要支付更多的錢。

And that's why when you talk to people and you tell them, oh, inflation has cooled down to 2.7%, people look at you like this, like, what are you talking about?

這就是為什麼當你與人交談時，你告訴他們，哦，通脹已經降溫到 2.7%，人們會這樣看著你，就像，你在說什麼？

Because if I look at the prices and the things that I'm spending my money on, it is very clear that I'm spending way more than 2.7%.

因為如果我看看價格和我花錢買的東西，就會發現我花的錢遠遠超過 2.7%。

I probably spend by, I mean, by extra 10 or 15%, maybe even more than that for some people.

我可能要多花 10%或 15%，對有些人來說可能還不止。

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為什麼所有百萬富翁都在為滯脹做準備？ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Stagflation)

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crisis

impact