Name: 沙特阿拉伯經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (Saudi Arabia's Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-08-04T18:34:36.000Z
Duration: 10 min 33 s

未來進行式

After the president of the United States visited Saudi Arabia, the Saudis announced that they will be investing in the United States 600 billion dollars and they will be purchasing a 142 billion dollars worth of American equipment.

美國總統訪問沙特阿拉伯後，沙特宣佈將在美國投資 6 000 億美元，並將購買價值 1 420 億美元的美國設備。

While 600 billion dollars is not a lot of money if you compare it to the size of the US economy, it is still a substantial sum.

如果與美國的經濟規模相比，6000 億美元並不算多，但仍是一筆不小的數目。

It can create hundreds of thousands of jobs and provide the stock market with a meaningful boost.

它可以創造成千上萬個就業機會，併為股市帶來有意義的提振。

But the more pressing question is that what is the state of the Saudi economy?

但更緊迫的問題是，沙特的經濟狀況如何？

Can they actually afford 600 billion dollar investment in a foreign country?

他們真的有能力在外國投資 6000 億美元嗎？

To be frank, the Saudi economy has been stagnating for the last 10 years. 50 years ago, Saudi Arabia has been a barren desert with little to no infrastructure.

坦率地說，沙特經濟在過去 10 年裡一直停滯不前。50 年前，沙特阿拉伯還是一片荒蕪的沙漠，幾乎沒有任何基礎設施。

And since then, the country has made remarkable progress.

從那時起，該國取得了令人矚目的進步。

But unlike its neighbors such as the UAE that could successfully diversify its economy, Saudi Arabia overwhelmingly remains reliant on oil.

但是，與阿聯酋等能夠成功實現經濟多元化的鄰國不同，沙特阿拉伯絕大多數情況下仍然依賴石油。

Almost 75% of government's revenue still depend on oil sales.

政府近 75% 的收入仍然依賴於石油銷售。

And the remaining 25% still tied largely to the oil ecosystem.

而剩下的 25% 在很大程度上仍與石油生態系統息息相關。

And as the global economy decisively moves away from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia finds itself standing on increasingly unstable grounds.

隨著全球經濟決定性地遠離化石燃料，沙特阿拉伯發現自己的處境越來越不穩定。

So let's break it down and figure out what exactly is happening.

那麼，讓我們來分析一下，看看到底發生了什麼。

Oil still remains the cornerstone of the Saudi government.

And as oil prices begin to foil, the structure of the economy starts to shake.

隨著油價開始下跌，經濟結構也開始動搖。

In response to that, the Saudi government introduced Vision 2030, an ambitious blueprint project to diversify the Saudi economy and transform it from an oil-dependent country to a sustainable diversified economy.

為此，沙特政府提出了 "2030 願景"，這是一個雄心勃勃的藍圖項目，旨在實現沙特經濟多元化，從一個依賴石油的國家轉變為一個可持續的多元化經濟體。

At the heart of this vision is a 500 billion-dollar megacity, which is going to be 170 kilometers, car-free, carbon-neutral, powered by clean energy that will foster innovation, artificial intelligence, and tourism.

這一願景的核心是一個價值 5000 億美元的大城市，它將長達 170 公里，無汽車，碳中和，由清潔能源驅動，將促進創新、人工智能和旅遊業的發展。

There is going to be also the Red Sea project, a combination of 90 luxurious islands on the Red Sea, which will host the Winter Olympics somewhere in the desert.

還有一個紅海項目，由紅海上的 90 個豪華島嶼組成，將在沙漠的某個地方舉辦冬奧會。

I didn't think that I will live to the age where the Winter Games will ever take place in the middle of the desert.

我沒想到自己能活到在沙漠中舉辦冬季奧運會的年紀。

All of this sounds visionary, but these projects will take decades to build in the first place.

所有這些聽起來都很有遠見，但這些項目首先需要幾十年才能建成。

They even cut already the NEON project from 170 kilometers down to a little over 2 kilometers.

他們甚至把 NEON 項目從 170 公里縮短到 2 公里多一點。

And they will take decades to break even, leave alone for them to become the main source of the government's funding.

它們需要幾十年才能實現收支平衡，更不用說成為政府資金的主要來源了。

And here are the three fundamental reasons why the Saudi economy is suffering and why the country will not even have the money to invest in its own projects, leave alone investing 600 billion dollars in the United States.

這就是沙特經濟遭受重創的三個根本原因，也是為什麼沙特連投資本國項目的資金都沒有，更不用說向美國投資 6000 億美元了。

Saudi Arabia continues to spend as if oil prices are above 100 dollars per barrel.

沙特阿拉伯繼續花錢，好像油價高於每桶 100 美元。

But if you look at oil prices, over the last decade, they have averaged to around 60 dollars per barrel and it's trending downward.

但如果你看看油價，在過去十年裡，油價平均在每桶 60 美元左右，而且還有下降的趨勢。

One of the fundamental goals of President Trump's visit to the Middle East was to persuade the Saudis to boost production that will push prices even further down.

特朗普總統訪問中東的基本目標之一就是說服沙特提高產量，從而進一步壓低油價。

Will the Saudi government increase to production at their own expense in order to satisfy the President of the United States but hurt their own country?

沙特政府是否會為了滿足美國總統的要求而自費增產，但卻損害了自己的國家？

Let's face it, the era of 100 dollars per barrel of oil is over.

面對現實吧，每桶石油 100 美元的時代已經過去了。

Transportation, which is the largest consumer of oil, is moving into EVs.

作為最大的石油消費國，交通運輸業正在轉向電動汽車。

Just in China alone, last year, 50% of all the new cars that have been sold in the country have been EVs, and the rest of the world is moving in the exact same direction and 5 years from now, that will be the case pretty much in every advanced country.

僅在中國，去年售出的新車中就有 50% 是電動汽車，世界其他國家也在朝著這個方向發展，5 年後，幾乎所有先進國家都將如此。

是以，這就引出了一個非常重要的問題。

If Saudi Arabia is struggling with budgetary pressures, how they will even get the 600 billion dollars to invest in the United States.

如果沙特阿拉伯正在為預算壓力而苦苦掙扎，他們怎麼可能會有 6000 億美元在美國投資。

Meanwhile, Donald Trump signaled his willingness to strike a deal with Iran and Russia, which are some of the largest exporters of oil.

與此同時，唐納德-特朗普表示願意與伊朗和俄羅斯達成協議，這兩個國家是最大的石油出口國。

And those deals could result in lifted sanctions on those countries, which will allow them to throw their oil into the market, which will again lead to lower oil prices because of higher supply.

這些交易可能會導致取消對這些國家的制裁，從而允許它們向市場投放石油，這將再次導致油價下跌，因為供應量增加了。

This only compounds the uncertainty with Saudi Arabia.

這隻會加劇沙特阿拉伯的不確定性。

At this level of spending, Saudi Arabia's economic model looks increasingly unsustainable.

按照這樣的支出水準，沙特阿拉伯的經濟模式看起來越來越難以為繼。

Saudi Arabia can still increase their production by 3 to 4 million extra barrels per day, but that will push other exporters of oil to increase their production, which is going to lead to an oversupply of the market, which will further lower down prices.

沙特阿拉伯仍可每天增產 300 萬至 400 萬桶，但這將促使其他石油出口國增產，從而導致市場供過於求，進一步拉低價格。

So that extra income the government is going to make is going to be insignificant, especially if you compare it to the current spending of the Saudi government.

是以，政府的額外收入將是微不足道的，尤其是如果與沙特政府目前的支出相比。

The second problem is, the Saudi sovereign fund isn't as big as it seems.

第二個問題是，沙特主權基金並沒有想象中那麼大。

Yes, on paper, the Saudi or the public investment fund of Saudi Arabia has assets valued at around a trillion dollars, and that's a formidable source, but if you dig into the numbers, it's not as much as it seems.

是的，從紙面上看，沙特或沙特的公共投資基金擁有價值約萬億美元的資產，這是一個強大的來源，但如果你深入研究這些數字，它並沒有想象中那麼多。

As they say, the devil is in the details, that's where you actually find the real problems.

俗話說，細節決定成敗，這才是真正的問題所在。

The public investment fund has 16% of Aramco, which is a state-owned corporation by Saudi Arabia that sells the Saudi oil, and that is valued at 250 billion dollars.

公共投資基金持有阿美石油公司 16% 的股份，該公司是沙特阿拉伯的國有企業，負責銷售沙特石油，價值 2,500 億美元。

The public investment fund also holds almost 70% of the largest mining company in Saudi Arabia, which is valued at around 130 billion dollars.

公共投資基金還持有沙特阿拉伯最大礦業公司近 70% 的股份，該公司估值約為 1 300 億美元。

The public investment fund also holds the Saudi National Bank, valued at 55 billion dollars.

公共投資基金還持有價值 550 億美元的沙特國家銀行。

So most of the assets at the public investment fund are already state-owned corporations, which means that they cannot be sold, they cannot be traded in the stock market, and it's very difficult to invest them or sell those shares to foreign investors.

是以，公共投資基金的大部分資產已經是國有企業，這意味著它們不能出售，不能在股票市場上交易，而且很難進行投資或將這些股份出售給外國投資者。

And the only real investments that the public investment fund has are worth at around 25 billion dollars.

而公共投資基金僅有的真正投資價值約為 250 億美元。

These are investments in the US stock market or other stock markets across the globe that the public investment fund can easily convert into cash.

這些是在美國股市或全球其他股市的投資，公共投資基金可以很容易地將其轉換成現金。

According to different estimates, the Saudi public investment fund also has anything between 15 to 20 billion dollars of cash or cash equivalent assets, which means that the real power of the public investment fund isn't a trillion dollars, but it's somewhere between or around 50 billion dollars.

根據不同的估計，沙特公共投資基金還擁有 150 億至 200 億美元的現金或現金等價物資產，這意味著公共投資基金的實際實力並非萬億美元，而是介於 500 億美元左右。

While 50 billion dollars is a lot of money, it's simply a fraction of what they promise to invest in the United States.

雖然 500 億美元是一大筆錢，但這只是他們承諾在美國投資的一小部分。

To invest beyond that means the Saudis will have to sell the national assets of the country, which is a politically sensitive process.

如果要進行更多的投資，就意味著沙特人必須出售本國的國有資產，而這是一個政治敏感的過程。

And for global investors, it's much easier for them to invest in a transparent stable economy, such as the United States, rather than gamble on Saudi Arabia.

而對於全球投資者來說，投資於美國這樣一個透明穩定的經濟體要比賭在沙特阿拉伯身上容易得多。

The third problem is, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is getting addicted to debt.

第三個問題是，沙特阿拉伯王國對債務越來越上癮。

The debt-to-GDP ratio in Saudi Arabia is 30%, which is, frankly speaking, very low compared to many European countries and especially to the United States, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is around 130%.

沙特阿拉伯的債務與國內生產總值的比率為 30%，坦率地說，與許多歐洲國家，特別是債務與國內生產總值的比率約為 130%的美國相比，這一比率非常低。

But this comparison is deeply misleading.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, the United States boasts a vast and diversified economy with 130 million taxpayers, so even if the United States will stop selling oil, it can easily sustain its debt.

與沙特阿拉伯不同，美國擁有龐大的多元化經濟，納稅人多達 1.3 億，是以即使美國停止出售石油，也能輕鬆地維持債務。

European economies, even though they have been behind the United States lately, especially in the last 20 years, they still rely on services, manufacturing, and high-tech industries, which allows them to sustain that kind of debt.

歐洲經濟雖然近來落後於美國，尤其是在過去 20 年裡，但它們仍然依賴於服務業、製造業和高科技產業，這使它們能夠維持這種債務。

Compare that to Saudi Arabia, where 75% of the entire budget comes from selling oil and gas.

與沙特阿拉伯相比，該國全部預算的 75% 來自出售石油和天然氣。

They don't have income tax, but they have value-added tax and they have a corporate tax rate.

他們沒有所得稅，但有增值稅和企業稅率。

And value-added tax is very similar to a sales tax but it happens at every stage of the production.

增值稅與銷售稅非常相似，但它發生在生產的每個階段。

But if oil prices go down, which is the engine of the economy, less transactions will start taking place within the entire economy and that 15% value-added tax, which is already insignificant to the government's budget, will become almost zero.

但是，如果作為經濟引擎的石油價格下跌，整個經濟中的交易量就會減少，對政府預算來說已經微不足道的 15%的增值稅就會幾乎為零。

The second, which is the corporate tax rate that stands at 20%, the foreign cooperation only exists in Saudi Arabia because there is so much oil in the country.

其次，沙特的企業稅率為 20%，對外合作只存在於沙特，因為該國有大量石油。

Oil prices go down and these foreign corporations will have nothing to do in Saudi Arabia.

油價下跌，這些外國公司在沙特阿拉伯將無事可做。

The bottom line is that Saudi Arabia is living beyond its means.

最重要的是，沙特阿拉伯的生活已經超出了它的承受能力。

And as oil revenues keep declining, it's leading the Saudi government to rely on borrowing.

隨著石油收入的不斷減少，沙特政府不得不依賴借貸。

And that reliance could lead to a debt spiral, an economic hole that the kingdom might not survive.

而這種依賴可能會導致債務螺旋式上升，使王國陷入經濟窟窿而無法自拔。

If the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the last 50 years at least invested 20% of their oil the stock market of the United States, they would have today an asset worth over 10 trillion dollars that would have brought the kingdom anything between 7 to 10 percent or 700 billion dollars up to a trillion dollars annually, which is twice the size of the current budget of Saudi Arabia, and they would be financially independent and wouldn't have the problems that they have today.

如果沙特阿拉伯王國在過去 50 年中至少將其石油的 20%投資於美國股市，那麼他們今天就會擁有價值超過 10 萬億美元的資產，每年會為王國帶來 7%至 10%的收益，即 7 000 億美元至 1 萬億美元，這是沙特阿拉伯目前預算的兩倍，而且他們會在財政上獨立，不會有今天的問題。

So if you don't want to end up like Saudi Arabia, start investing as early as possible.

是以，如果你不想落得和沙特阿拉伯一樣的下場，那就儘早開始投資吧。

And if you wanna know what is the best investing strategy for you, then there is a link in the description of this video that will help you out.

如果你想知道什麼是最適合你的投資策略，那麼這段視頻的描述中有一個鏈接可以幫到你。

Maybe you should send this video to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia to watch this video and also use the link in the description of this video.

也許你應該把這段視頻發送給沙特阿拉伯王儲，讓他觀看這段視頻，還可以使用這段視頻描述中的鏈接。

It might help the Saudi government to build an investing strategy that will help them to finally become financially independent.

這可能有助於沙特政府制定投資戰略，幫助他們最終實現財政獨立。

It might be a little too late for the Saudi government, but it's never too late for you.

對沙特政府來說，這可能有點晚了，但對你來說永遠不會晚。