Name: 印中協議：新德里謹慎樂觀；信任赤字使緩衝區保持不變 (India-China deal: New Delhi cautiously optimistic; trust deficit keeps buffer zones intact)
Uploaded: 2025-07-30T14:48:27.000Z
Duration: 43 min 11 s

And the Chinese have always done it for reasons that are strategic and are important to them.

而中國人這樣做一直是出於戰略原因，對他們很重要。

不會的，他們不會為印度這樣做。

程度副詞

They certainly don't do it for world or regional peace.

他們這樣做當然不是為了世界或地區和平。

They're doing it because there's something at stake for the Chinese.

他們這樣做是因為這對中國人來說事關重大。

The skepticism comes from the fact that every time Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping have met, it has been followed by something or the other at the border, some incident or the other.

莫迪總理和習近平主席每次會晤之後，都會在邊境發生一些事情或其他事件，從而引起人們的懷疑。

This time around, the messaging was very clear from the Indian side that no matter what, you don't like our policies, we're okay.

這一次，印度方面發出的資訊非常明確，那就是無論如何，你們不喜歡我們的政策，我們都沒問題。

But if you do this kind of transgression, it cannot be business as usual.

但是，如果你做了這種越軌行為，就不能再像往常一樣了。

The optics of Putin being there with Chinese and the Indian leadership.

普京與中國和印度領導人一起出席會議的視覺效果。

So yes, this is the resolution to the current crisis, not to the old boundary problem between India and China.

是以，是的，這是解決當前危機的辦法，而不是解決中印之間的老邊界問題。

This was one of the most difficult negotiations that they've done in recent times with China.

這是他們近期與中國進行的最困難的談判之一。

And they've managed to come to an understanding.

This is the 108th episode of Geeta's world.

The entire office is now running to decorate, you know, I mean, people here are running to decorate their desks.

現在整個辦公室都在忙著裝飾，我是說，大家都在忙著裝飾自己的辦公桌。

So there's a little competition on as to whose bay is going to be the best decorated.

是以，誰的海灣裝飾得最好就成了一場小競賽。

是啊，我總是很喜歡這個排燈節。

But I mean, today we are discussing something that is like, I mean, you can consider it to be a good news, but you can consider it to be like a not so good news as well, because, you know, there are observers who are advising against it.

但我的意思是，今天我們討論的事情，我的意思是，你可以認為它是一個好消息，但你也可以認為它是一個不太好的消息，因為，你知道，有一些觀察家建議不要這樣做。

I mean, they're saying that you need to be cautious.

我的意思是，他們說你需要謹慎。

Not against, just be cautious.  Yeah, right.

不反對，只是要謹慎。  是的，沒錯。

And last week, you know, what people are saying, that it is indeed a very breakthrough moment for both the countries.

而上週，你知道，人們都在說，這對兩國來說確實是一個非常具有突破性的時刻。

So how breakthrough it is, I think you'll be able to explain.

所以，它有多大的突破性，我想你應該能解釋清楚。

But just for the brief, I think India and China, they both have, you know, agreed to resume patrolling along the LAC, the Line of Actual Control in two areas, the Demchuk region and the Depsang plain.

但我想簡單說一下，印度和中國都同意在兩個地區，即德姆丘克地區和德普桑平原，恢復沿實際控制線（LAC）的巡邏。

Last of the areas that were still, had not seen disengagement by the troops.

最後一個地區仍未看到部隊脫離接觸。

So Geeta, I think this, like I said, it was announced last week, and it actually came like a bombshell, because we were not anticipating this from the foreign secretary, you know, Vikram Mistry saying this, because we were actually hoping that, okay, what is going to, you know, the BRICS summit, what that will entail, will be briefed about that.

是以，吉塔，我認為，就像我說的那樣，這是上週宣佈的，它實際上就像一顆重磅炸彈，因為我們沒有預料到外交大臣維克拉姆-米斯特會這麼說，因為我們實際上希望，好吧，金磚國家峰會會有什麼，你知道的，那會帶來什麼，將對此進行簡要介紹。

But this was not like, we saw it will pan out.

但這並不像我們看到的那樣，會有結果。

And then days after, Prime Minister Modi went to Kazan, Russia, for the BRICS summit, and we saw the famous spectacle, you know, like, it worked well for the optics, the Modi and Xi's handshake.

幾天後，莫迪總理前往俄羅斯喀山參加金磚國家峰會，我們看到了著名的場面：莫迪和習近平握手。

But yes, just a, you know, brief, I mean, if you have been following Integrity podcast, we have another podcast called In our Defense, on which we have tackled the same issue, but on a military… In fact, they actually explain militarily what these terminology really mean, what's going to happen and how disengagement really takes place.

是的，我只是想簡單說一下，我是說，如果你一直在關注正直播客，我們還有另一個播客，叫 "我們的防務"，在這個播客中，我們討論了同樣的問題，但從軍事角度......事實上，他們實際上從軍事角度解釋了這些術語的真正含義，將會發生什麼，以及脫離接觸到底是如何發生的。

And, but here, I think, because it's a, you know, diplomatic, diplomacy pertaining podcast, so we'll be focusing on the diplomatic front.

我想，因為這是一個外交播客，所以我們會把重點放在外交方面。

So let's try to answer, you know, does this actually mark the beginning of the end of the four-year standoff, or is just like a temporary lull, as they say?

那麼，讓我們試著回答，你知道，這是否真的標誌著四年對峙結束的開始，或者就像他們說的那樣，只是暫時的平靜？

And why do we have to remain sceptical because it's China, and China is considered to be like a very treacherous country.

為什麼我們必須保持懷疑，因為這是中國，而中國被認為是一個非常奸詐的國家。

But first… Oh, I'm sure the Chinese would not like that.

但首先......哦，我肯定中國人不會喜歡這樣。

但在印度，關心此事的人並不多。

So I'm just, you know, giving myself this liberty to say that.

所以，我只是，你知道，給自己這個自由說。

But anyway, so let's try to understand, Geeta, from you that, you know, because first, like Prime Minister Modi and Xi Jinping met, and that was a spectacle.

但無論如何，吉塔，讓我們試著從你那裡瞭解一下，你知道，因為首先，就像莫迪總理和習近平會晤一樣，那是一個奇觀。

And this, I think the last time they had met was, such kind of introduction happened was five years ago, and in Brazil, like similar on the sidelines of similar BRICS summit.

我認為，他們上一次會面是在五年前，在巴西舉行的金磚國家峰會期間。

Now, this agreement says that, you know, there's a broad consensus to so-called resolve this very contentious, outstanding border issue.

現在，這項協議表明，各方已就所謂解決這一極具爭議、懸而未決的邊界問題達成廣泛共識。

那麼，我們是如何走到這一步的呢？

What actually brought these two arch-rivals together on the table to have these talks?

究竟是什麼讓這兩個宿敵走到了一起，進行會談？

See, I think if you ask me, there are a lot of factors.

你看，如果你問我，我覺得有很多因素。

China does not give in and, you know, take decisions as important and critical as this one so easily.

中國不會輕易屈服，也不會輕易做出如此重要和關鍵的決定。

So there are, I think, a few factors at play.

是以，我認為有幾個因素在起作用。

One is that there have been quite a few number of diplomatic level and military level talks between the two sides, but nothing really changed.

其一，雙方進行了多次外交和軍事會談，但沒有任何實質性的改變。

Let's go back to before the meeting really took place and set a preamble to what really happened and why did they arrive at where they are today.

讓我們回到會議真正召開之前，為真正發生了什麼以及他們為什麼會走到今天這個地步做一個鋪墊。

So before the meeting, we did not know that the announcement was going to take place and that Vikram Mistry was going to really announce disengagement.

是以，在會議之前，我們並不知道會有這樣的宣佈，也不知道維克拉姆-米斯特真的會宣佈脫離。

And even when he did, there was no clarity on what kind, how it's going to happen.

即使他這樣做了，也不清楚會發生什麼樣的事情，如何發生。

So a lot of skepticism, you know, they're saying it, will the Chinese do it?

是以，很多人對此持懷疑態度，你知道，他們都這麼說了，中國人會這麼做嗎？

他們之所以這麼做，是因為這關係到中國人的利益。

When we saw the news, the skepticism comes from the fact that every time Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping have met, it has been followed by something or the other at the border, some incident or the other.

當我們看到這則新聞時，懷疑的聲音來自於這樣一個事實，即莫迪總理和習近平主席每次會晤之後，都會在邊境發生一些事情或其他事件。

When Mammalapuram happened, we had the whole Pangong incident.

當瑪瑪拉普蘭事件發生時，我們又經歷了整個龐貢事件。

And many such meetings, Mammalapuram is the Mahabalipuram, you know, India-China meet.

許多這樣的會議，如瑪瑪拉普蘭會議（Mahabalipuram），你知道的，印中會議。

Many such meetings have always been followed by some transgression in Arunachal or some incident and, you know, short of being violent, such as Galwan.

許多此類會議之後，阿魯納恰爾邦總會發生一些越軌行為或事件，你知道，這些都是暴力事件，比如加爾萬事件。

But, you know, scuffles between the forces on the Chinese side and the Indian troops at the border on the eastern front of the Ladakh sector, right?

但是，你知道，中方部隊和印方部隊在拉達克地區東線邊境發生了混戰，對嗎？

So we have seen a lot when it comes to India and China.

是以，談到印度和中國，我們已經看到了很多。

I think that if you see how China is being cornered, one, China's economy is not in a good shape.

我認為，如果你看到中國是如何被逼入絕境的，首先，中國的經濟狀況並不好。

There is immense pressure on dehyphenating, decoupling, but also on ensuring that there is certain isolation, economic isolation of China.

中國面臨著巨大的壓力，不僅要脫鉤，還要確保一定程度上的孤立，經濟上的孤立。

India stands to play a very important role in the Indo-Pacific architecture.

印度將在印太架構中發揮非常重要的作用。

And the more India siding with America, the more China was getting riled.

印度越是站在美國一邊，中國就越是惱羞成怒。

But the more China gets riled and does what it does, this time around, this messaging was very clear from the Indian side that no matter what, you don't like our policies, we're OK.

但中國越是惱羞成怒，越是我行我素，這一次，印度方面發出的資訊非常明確，那就是無論如何，你們不喜歡我們的政策，我們都沒問題。

Then we have the two wars that have come.

At this juncture, to have India completely on the Western side is not going to do well for China.

在此關頭，印度完全站在西方一邊對中國不利。

So somewhere down the line, I suppose there were pressures.

是以，我認為在某個環節上存在著壓力。

你看，光學儀器發揮著非常重要的作用。

When you say that, you know, India can be mediator in this, that and the rest.

當你這麼說的時候，你知道，印度可以在這個、那個和其他問題上充當調解人。

And, you know, there are optics and photographs of Modi with Putin and then separately Modi with Zelensky.

你知道，有莫迪與普京的合影和照片，也有莫迪與澤連斯基的合影和照片。

The optics in Kazan spoke volumes, Anna, where you saw Putin in the middle, Xi Jinping on one side, Modi on the other side.

在喀山，普京站在中間，習近平站在一邊，莫迪站在另一邊。

字幕列表影片播放

印中協議：新德里謹慎樂觀；信任赤字使緩衝區保持不變 (India-China deal: New Delhi cautiously optimistic; trust deficit keeps buffer zones intact)

sort

scenario

force

claim