Name: 西方不瞭解普京主義的極端主義"，美國曆史學家安妮-阿普爾鮑姆 | DW News ('The West doesn't understand the extremism of Putinism', US historian Anne Applebaum | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-28T16:52:52.000Z
Duration: 39 min 25 s

Anne Applebaum, welcome to Deutsche Welle of Trendy Program.

安妮-阿普爾鮑姆（Anne Applebaum），歡迎收聽德國之聲的時髦節目。

情態副詞

First question is about something that happened pretty recently.

第一個問題是關於最近發生的一件事。

Senator Lindsey Graham said that he played golf with Donald Trump and Donald Trump told him allegedly that it's time to impose these mega sanctions that are waiting in the Senate on Russia.

參議員林賽-格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）說，他曾與唐納德-特朗普一起打高爾夫球，據稱唐納德-特朗普告訴他，是時候對俄羅斯實施這些正在參議院等待的大型制裁了。

Do you think that something really shifted in Washington?

你認為華盛頓真的發生了什麼變化嗎？

So I can't predict how Donald Trump will behave or react in any given moment because he isn't someone who has a strategy.

是以，我無法預測唐納德-特朗普在任何特定時刻的行為或反應，因為他不是一個有策略的人。

He doesn't think geopolitically, he doesn't think strategically, he makes decisions on the spur of the moment depending on who he's speaking to and whether he perceives himself to be winning.

他沒有地緣政治思維，也沒有戰略思維，他只是根據與誰交談以及他認為自己是否獲勝來臨時做出決定。

It's true that the Senate, Graham and more than, as I understand it, 80 other senators are willing to sign a bill that would increase sanctions pretty dramatically.

據我所知，參議院的格雷厄姆和其他 80 多位參議員確實願意簽署一項法案，大幅提高制裁力度。

And it's true that some people around Donald Trump want him to do this.

唐納德-特朗普身邊的一些人確實希望他這麼做。

But he has other forces and other interests around him too.

但他身邊也有其他力量和其他利益。

There are people around him who want him to do a deal with Putin because it might be personally financially beneficial to themselves or maybe to the president.

他身邊有些人希望他與普京達成協議，因為這可能會給他們個人或總統帶來經濟利益。

There are people in the MAGA movement who are actively pro-Russian and so we'll just have to see who wins the argument.

MAGA 運動中有人積極親俄，所以我們只能看看誰會贏得這場爭論。

Do you seriously think that Donald Trump could sign some kind of deal with Vladimir Putin which will be also personally beneficial to him and which one?

您真的認為唐納德-特朗普會與弗拉基米爾-普京簽署某種對他個人也有利的協議嗎？

Well, we know such things have been proposed or we're rumoured that such things have been proposed.

我們知道有人提出過這樣的建議，或者有傳言說有人提出過這樣的建議。

But of course, no, I don't know whether he would do that or not.

當然，我不知道他是否會這麼做。

He was president already and he dealt with him.

他已經是總統了，他和他打過交道。

Why is he so gentle with Putin until now?

為什麼他到現在才對普京如此溫和？

People have been asking this question for a decade.

十年來，人們一直在問這個問題。

There was a major investigation during Trump's first presidency into the sources of Russian influence on the Trump campaign and it wasn't inconclusive, it showed that there was influence but they were never able to prove that Trump was criminally involved or that there was a criminal involvement.

在特朗普擔任第一任總統期間，曾對俄羅斯對特朗普競選活動的影響來源進行過一次重大調查，調查並非沒有結果，調查顯示存在影響，但他們始終無法證明特朗普涉及刑事犯罪，也無法證明存在刑事犯罪。

We know that Trump has had Russian connections for more than 30 years.

我們知道，特朗普 30 多年來一直與俄羅斯有聯繫。

He's had Russian investment into his business and this is not a conspiracy theory.

他的生意得到了俄羅斯的投資，這不是陰謀論。

We know that he has had positive thoughts about Russia.

我們知道他對俄羅斯有積極的看法。

We know he's felt very negative about US alliances for a long time.

我們知道，長期以來，他一直對美國的盟友關係感到非常消極。

It's in his books from more than a decade ago.

In the 1980s, he took out big newspaper advertisements arguing that the US was wasting money on alliances.

20 世紀 80 年代，他在報紙上刊登大篇幅廣告，認為美國在結盟上浪費金錢。

All these instincts have been in place even before Putin came to power.

甚至在普京上臺之前，所有這些本能就已經存在。

Since he's in power, Trump is someone who's very impressed by people who operate without checks and balances, without restrictions, without courts, without journalists.

自從掌權以來，特朗普就對那些沒有制衡、沒有限制、沒有法院、沒有記者的人印象深刻。

My guess is that he's positively disposed to the Russians anyway and that he's personally impressed with Putin.

我的猜測是，無論如何他都對俄羅斯人抱有好感，而且他本人對普京印象深刻。

I don't know, obviously, what their personal interactions are like but Putin is a trained KGB officer.

顯然，我不知道他們之間的私人交往如何，但普京是一名訓練有素的克格勃軍官。

He would know how to find somebody's weaknesses and somebody's...

他知道如何找到某人的弱點和某人的...

He would know how to find the way to manipulate someone and persuade them that he's his friend.

他知道如何操縱別人，讓別人相信他是他的朋友。

Certainly it's the case that Trump believes Putin to be his friend and he has said that he's used that word.

當然，特朗普認為普京是他的朋友，他也說過他用過這個詞。

Isn't it just a way of telling his own audience that he controls everything?

這不就是在告訴他自己的觀眾，他控制著一切嗎？

Can he seriously believe that Putin be his friend?

他真的相信普京是他的朋友嗎？

He doesn't use that word about other people.

他不會用這個詞來形容其他人。

He doesn't use it about other leaders but he does use it about Putin.

他對其他領導人不這麼說，但對普京卻這麼說。

Your guess, what will happen if Trump realizes or if Putin behaves in such a way that Trump will have to realize there's going to be no deal on Ukraine or on whatever with Putin?

你猜，如果特朗普意識到，或者普京的行為方式讓特朗普不得不意識到，在烏克蘭問題上或與普京的任何問題上都無法達成協議，會發生什麼？

The Russians have never said that they want a deal.

俄羅斯人從未說過他們希望達成協議。

They have never said they want a ceasefire.

They have never said that if we give them Crimea they will stop the war, which is the idea that many think tank writers and journalists and statesmen seem to believe.

他們從未說過，如果我們把克里米亞交給他們，他們就會停止戰爭，而許多智庫作家、記者和政治家似乎都相信這種說法。

They've never accepted that as a possible ending to the war.

他們從未接受過戰爭可能的結局。

Not only have they not stopped fighting since Trump came to office, recently the Russians have actually increased their attacks, especially on civilians, on cities, on civilian infrastructure, on Kiev, on Dnipro, on Kharkiv.

自特朗普上臺以來，他們不僅沒有停止戰鬥，最近俄羅斯人實際上還增加了攻擊，特別是對平民、城市、民用基礎設施、基輔、第聶伯河、哈爾科夫的攻擊。

So they show absolutely no signs whatsoever of wanting to end the war.

是以，他們完全沒有想要結束戰爭的跡象。

And Trump, I mean this has been obvious for many days, Trump has still not reacted.

而特朗普，我的意思是，這已經顯而易見很多天了，但特朗普仍然沒有做出反應。

So you tell me, I mean I don't know what he, what will he do if the Russians don't begin to end the war?

那麼你告訴我，我是說我不知道如果俄國人不開始結束戰爭，他會怎麼做？

He's doing what he's, it's what he's doing now and he's doing nothing.

他在做什麼，他現在就在做什麼，他什麼都沒做。

It's interesting that many people were saying that he, Trump does not have empathy, that it's not part of his psyche, of his character.

有趣的是，很多人都說他，特朗普沒有同情心，這不是他心理和性格的一部分。

And then we see him speaking to a Ukrainian journalist during a press conference in The Hague after the NATO summit and suddenly he seems quite warm and disposed and empathetic.

北約峰會結束後，他在海牙舉行的新聞發佈會上對一名烏克蘭記者發表講話，突然間，他顯得相當熱情、善解人意、富有同情心。

Do you think that maybe something moved him psychologically recently?

你認為他最近是否受到了什麼心理刺激？

I could not have any way of answering that.

He clearly has no empathy for many people.

He talks about immigrants in the United States as poisoning the blood of the nation, which is the language that Hitler used.

他說美國的移民毒害了民族的血液，這是希特勒使用過的語言。

So he's somebody who is very immune to cruelty and not bothered by civilian casualties.

是以，他是一個對殘忍行為免疫力很強的人，不會為平民傷亡而煩惱。

So I doubt very much that one incident has changed him, but who knows.

是以，我很懷疑一次事件是否改變了他，但誰知道呢？

Putin, there are debates about, especially in this sort of Russia, Russia watches community in it.

普京，有辯論，特別是在這種俄羅斯，俄羅斯在其中觀察社會。

What are Putin's ultimate goals in Ukraine?

普京在烏克蘭的最終目標是什麼？

Is it putting a puppet government in Kiev and having it as a protectorate, essentially?

是在基輔建立一個傀儡政府，並將其作為保護國嗎？

So I think Putin has three goals in Ukraine.

是以，我認為普京在烏克蘭有三個目標。

And he has strategy, as opposed to Trump.

與特朗普相比，他有自己的戰略。

He would like to resurrect the Russian Empire with himself as the leader of it.

他希望以自己為首的俄羅斯帝國復活。

這將是他在歷史上扮演的角色。

And towards that end, he would like to see Ukraine, whether it's a puppet government or whether it's fully part of Russia, I don't know.

為此，他希望看到烏克蘭成為一個傀儡政府，還是完全成為俄羅斯的一部分，我不得而知。

But he would like to erase Ukrainian-ness.

He would like Ukraine to cease to exist as a nation.

他希望烏克蘭作為一個國家不復存在。

And he would like Ukraine to be one way or another incorporated back into the Russian Empire.

他希望烏克蘭能以某種方式重新併入俄羅斯帝國。

As I say, in what format that is, I don't know that it really matters.

正如我所說的那樣，我不知道這到底是什麼形式。

His original goal, as we know, was to conquer Kiev in three days and take the rest of the country in six weeks.

我們都知道，他最初的目標是在三天內征服基輔，在六週內拿下全國。

So now we're on plan B, which is to undermine and destroy the country as much as possible.

所以現在我們要執行 B 計劃，即儘可能地破壞和摧毀這個國家。

His second goal is to destroy the set of ideas that propelled the Ukrainian revolution of 2014.

他的第二個目標是摧毀推動 2014 年烏克蘭革命的一系列思想。

So this was when he saw the Maidan of that year.

於是，他看到了當年的獨立廣場。

This was people waving EU flags and carrying slogans against corruption and calling for the end of an autocratic president who was pulling Ukraine in the direction of Russia.

人們揮舞著歐盟的旗幟，喊著反對腐敗的口號，呼籲結束將烏克蘭拉向俄羅斯的專制總統。

When that revolution succeeded, in other words, when President Yanukovych fled the country, this, for Putin, was a kind of alarm bell.

當革命成功時，換句話說，當亞努科維奇總統逃離這個國家時，這對普京來說是一種警鐘。

Because this, of course, is the kind of revolution that he is most afraid of.

因為這當然是他最害怕的革命。

It's the kind of revolution you almost had in 2010 or 2011.

這種革命在 2010 年或 2011 年差點就發生了。

The language of anti-corruption is the language that Alexei Navalny used.

反腐敗的語言就是阿列克謝-納瓦爾尼使用的語言。

This language, not just of democracy, but rule of law, transparency, accountability, anti-corruption, this is the language that's most damaging and dangerous to him.

這種語言，不僅僅是民主，還有法治、透明、問責、反腐，這是對他最具破壞性和危險性的語言。

And he sees Ukraine, the need to destroy Ukraine, is also partly about destroying that language and the appeal of that language in Russia.

在他看來，需要摧毀烏克蘭，部分原因也是為了摧毀這種語言以及這種語言在俄羅斯的吸引力。