Name: 住房市場出現嚴重問題 (Something is going deeply wrong in Housing Market)
Uploaded: 2025-07-23T18:49:01.000Z
Duration: 20 min 36 s

Something weird is happening in the housing market.

房地產市場正在發生一些奇怪的事情。

情態副詞

This could potentially hike mortgage rates to levels that we haven't seen since 1970s and 1980s.

這有可能使抵押貸款利率上升到自 20 世紀 70 年代和 80 年代以來從未見過的水準。

出於某種原因，每個人都相信這一點。

If the Fed is going to lower down interest rates, then we are going to have lower mortgage rates.

如果美聯儲要降低利率，那麼我們的抵押貸款利率也會降低。

But that's not how it works and it's not going to happen.

但事情並非如此，也不會發生。

So even if the Fed is going to lower down interest rates, mortgage rates are not coming down for the explain here in this video.

是以，即使美聯儲將降低利率，抵押貸款利率也不會因為視頻中的解釋而下降。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's find out when mortgage rates will finally come down.

所以，如果你已經準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們來看看抵押貸款利率何時會最終下降。

This is how people believe the housing market works.

這就是人們認為的房地產市場運作方式。

You go to a bank and you borrow a mortgage.

So for the bank to provide you with a lower mortgage rate, then they must borrow that money from the Fed at a lower interest rate.

是以，銀行要想為您提供更低的抵押貸款利率，就必須以更低的利率從美聯儲借錢。

So it all comes down to the Federal Reserve.

所以，這一切都歸結於美聯儲。

But this is not how the banking system works.

The banks work in such a way that they borrow money from investors at a certain interest rate, let's say 5 percent, and then they loan it to consumers at a higher interest rate, let's say 8 percent, and pocketing the difference.

銀行的運作方式是，他們以一定的利率（比如 5%）向投資者借錢，然後以更高的利率（比如 8%）借給消費者，並將差額收入囊中。

In fact, if you look at the numbers, on average, they borrow 50 times more money from investors than the Federal Reserve.

事實上，如果你看一下數字，他們從投資者那裡借到的錢平均是美聯儲的 50 倍。

And the Fed only exists there in order to stabilize the market and not provide them with free money.

美聯儲的存在只是為了穩定市場，而不是為他們提供免費資金。

So if you want lower mortgage rates, then the banks should somehow convince the investors it's safe to invest and loan your money at lower interest rates to the banks.

是以，如果你想要更低的抵押貸款利率，那麼銀行就應該以某種方式說服投資者，讓他們相信投資是安全的，並以更低的利率把你的錢貸給銀行。

But even if you convinced or managed to do that, then you have to understand that 30-year mortgages are extremely risky.

但即使你說服或設法做到了這一點，你也必須明白，30 年期抵押貸款風險極大。

This is not the kind of investment that anybody would want to make, because you don't know what's going to happen in 30 years from now.

這不是任何人都想做的投資，因為你不知道 30 年後會發生什麼。

Another pandemic, another recession, another depression, massive devaluation of the dollar, you name it, it doesn't matter.

另一次大流行病、另一次經濟衰退、另一次經濟蕭條、美元大規模貶值，你說什麼，都無所謂。

That's why banks would never want to provide you with a 30-year mortgage.

這就是為什麼銀行不願意為您提供 30 年期抵押貸款的原因。

So the question is that how on earth did the banks kept providing them for so many years?

那麼問題來了，銀行究竟是如何提供了這麼多年的？

When the banks create and give you the 30-year mortgage, they turn them into mortgage-backed securities, bundle them under one giant security, and then sell them and they are backed by the government of the United States.

當銀行創造並向你提供 30 年期抵押貸款時，他們將其轉化為抵押貸款支持證券，將其捆綁在一個巨大的證券下，然後出售，並由美國政府提供支持。

是以，銀行並不持有你的抵押貸款。

When you make your mortgage payments, you are not paying the bank, you are actually paying the investors who purchased the mortgage-backed securities.

當你支付按揭貸款時，你不是在向銀行付款，實際上是在向購買按揭抵押證券的投資者付款。

So the rates on the mortgage-backed securities determine your mortgage rate.

是以，抵押貸款支持證券的利率決定了你的抵押貸款利率。

And the only reason that investors would want to buy mortgage-backed securities is because they are being backed by the government of the 2020.

而投資者願意購買抵押貸款支持證券的唯一原因，就是它們得到了 2020 年政府的支持。

Because if you think about it, nobody would want to buy a mortgage-backed security or any kind of security and lock his money for the next 30 years only receiving 3% interest, because by the time you are going to get your money back, it's going to worth absolutely nothing.

因為仔細想想，沒有人會願意購買抵押貸款證券或任何種類的證券，把自己的錢鎖定在未來 30 年只能獲得 3% 的利息上，因為等你把錢拿回來的時候，它已經一文不值了。

Then 2020 and 2021 absolutely debunks that idea.

那麼 2020 年和 2021 年絕對會推翻這一想法。

But to answer that question, you have to take a look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.

但要回答這個問題，你必須先看看美聯儲的資產負債表。

This is how much mortgage-backed securities the Federal Reserve holds in its balance sheet.

這就是美聯儲在其資產負債表中持有的抵押貸款支持證券的數量。

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve did not hold any kind of mortgage-backed securities, because the Fed was not involved in the housing market.

在 2008 年金融危機之前，美聯儲沒有持有任何種類的抵押貸款支持證券，因為美聯儲沒有參與房地產市場。

Everybody thought that the housing market is very stable and the house prices will continue to grow forever.

大家都認為房地產市場非常穩定，房價會永遠增長下去。

But the 2008 Great Recession proved that's not the case and even the housing market can collapse.

但 2008 年的經濟大衰退證明事實並非如此，甚至房地產市場也會崩潰。

So when it collapsed and we realized that if the Fed does not step in right now and save the housing market, it will keep dragging the entire US economy and therefore the global economy down.

是以，當它崩潰時，我們意識到，如果美聯儲現在不出手拯救房地產市場，它將繼續拖累整個美國經濟，進而拖累全球經濟。

So they step in and they start buying mortgage-backed securities.

於是他們介入，開始購買抵押貸款支持證券。

And that's why if you look at the balance sheet of the Fed, you instantly see a huge hike that they bought trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities.

這就是為什麼如果你看看美聯儲的資產負債表，就會立刻發現他們購買了數萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券，從而大幅提高了資產負債率。

This is what drove interest rates on the mortgages down and down.

這就是抵押貸款利率一降再降的原因。

Because if you go back to 2008, nobody is buying mortgage-backed securities, so interest rates on the mortgages are super high.

因為如果回到 2008 年，沒有人購買抵押貸款支持證券，所以抵押貸款的利率超高。

And then the Fed steps in and starts buying them, which that huge demand for the mortgage-backed securities by the Fed artificially lowers down In 2012, you see another hike when the Fed started buying mortgage-backed securities.

然後，美聯儲介入並開始購買，美聯儲對抵押貸款支持證券的巨大需求人為地降低了抵押貸款支持證券的價格。

And if you compare that to what's happening to the interest rates on 30-year government bonds, they kept going down as well.

如果把這一點與 30 年期政府債券的利率相比，它們也在持續下降。

And that's why in 2020, there was another hike.

這就是為什麼在 2020 年，又有一次加息。

When the covid pandemic happened in 2020, the Fed realized that they got their lessons from 2008.

當 2020 年科維茲大流行發生時，美聯儲意識到他們從 2008 年吸取了教訓。

And they realized, if we don't step in right now and start buying massively mortgage-backed securities, the entire economy has the potential to collapse.

他們意識到，如果我們現在不介入，開始大規模購買抵押貸款支持證券，整個經濟就有可能崩潰。

So instead of waiting for the collapse, we are going to take massive action now.

是以，與其等待崩潰，我們不如現在就採取大規模行動。

So the Fed steps in and starts buying these mortgage-backed securities in trillions of dollars, as you can see in the balance sheet of the Fed.

是以，美聯儲介入，開始購買這些抵押貸款支持證券，規模達數萬億美元，這在美聯儲的資產負債表中可以看到。

And this is what drove mortgage rates to such a low rate in the first place back in 2020 and 2021.

這也是 2020 年和 2021 年房貸利率達到如此低點的原因。

In 2022, the Fed realizes that, wait a second, we are in trouble because we cannot possibly manage to keep buying mortgage-backed securities.

2022 年，美聯儲意識到，等等，我們有麻煩了，因為我們不可能繼續購買抵押貸款支持證券。

This is unsustainable for the housing market.

這對住房市場來說是不可持續的。

In fact, it's destroying the housing market.

事實上，它正在摧毀住房市場。

So we have to get rid of these mortgage-backed During crisis, nobody would want to buy them.

是以，我們必須在危機期間擺脫這些抵押貸款擔保，沒有人會願意購買它們。

But now we have them in our balance sheet, the crisis is over, and now we will start selling them to investors.

但現在我們的資產負債表中已經有了它們，危機已經過去，現在我們將開始向投資者出售它們。

And that's why, if you look at the balance sheet, they started selling their mortgage-backed securities, and they have already dropped it from around 2.8 trillion dollars up to 2.3 trillion dollars.

這就是為什麼，如果你看一下資產負債表，他們開始出售抵押貸款支持證券，並已將其從約 2.8 萬億美元降至 2.3 萬億美元。

And that's why mortgage rates since then have skyrocketed.

這也是此後抵押貸款利率飆升的原因。

Because there is an oversupply market of mortgage-backed securities and there is not enough demand on the other hand.

因為抵押擔保證券市場供過於求，而另一方面需求又不足。

That artificial demand in 2020 and 2021 was created by the Fed.

2020 年和 2021 年的人為需求是由美聯儲創造的。

Fed jumping in and buying mortgage-backed securities is equal to the same thing as the Fed buying that house.

美聯儲出手購買抵押貸款支持證券，就等於美聯儲買下了那套房子。

You are only putting a down payment to the house.

And then because the Fed prints the money and buys that house on behalf of you, it's creating money out of thin air.

然後，由於美聯儲印製了鈔票，並代表你買下了那套房子，這就是在憑空造錢。

That is an unsustainable trend for any country or for anybody.

對任何國家或任何人來說，這種趨勢都是不可持續的。

And that's why if you look at house prices, house prices are rising so much over the last 50 to 60 years.

這就是為什麼如果你看一下房價，房價在過去五六十年間上漲如此之快的原因。

Back in 1970s, 3 household income would get you a house.

在 20 世紀 70 年代，3 個家庭的收入就能買到一棟房子。

In 2025, 6 or 7 household income would get you a house.

在 2025 年，6 或 7 戶家庭的收入就能買到房子。

So if this trend would continue maybe in 5 to 10 years from now, you might need 10 to 12 households to buy a single house.

是以，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，也許 5 到 10 年後，你可能需要 10 到 12 個家庭才能買到一棟房子。

So we have to massively sell off all of these mortgage-backed securities to the investors so we restore the face and the and the housing market or the house prices do not keep rising so much.

是以，我們必須向投資者大規模拋售所有這些抵押貸款支持證券，這樣我們才能恢復面貌，住房市場或房價才不會持續大幅上漲。

And that's exactly what they started doing.

And they will sell the mortgage-backed securities to investors.

他們將向投資者出售抵押貸款支持證券。

The question is that who are the investors who are going to buy the mortgage-backed securities?

問題是，誰是購買抵押貸款支持證券的投資者？

And this is the lens that investors look at any investment.

這也是投資者看待任何投資的視角。

So the more risk you take, the more reward you expect out of your investment.

是以，你承擔的風險越大，你期望的投資回報就越高。

And if this is a startup that has massive risk, you expect a potential to make 1000% out of it.

如果這是一家有巨大風險的初創企業，你就期望有可能從中賺取 1000% 的利潤。

If you are buying a house, it's a very safe investment, then you are expecting a very low return on your investment.

如果你買的是一棟房子，這是一項非常安全的投資，那麼你的投資回報預期就會很低。

So investors have multiple options to invest.

是以，投資者有多種投資選擇。

The safest investments that we have in the market are called treasury bills.

市場上最安全的投資是國庫券。

Currently, 10-year treasury bills provide you with a 4.5% interest rate.

目前，10 年期國庫券的利率為 4.5%。

So you are buying or loaning money to the government of the United States.

所以，你是在向美國政府購買或貸款。

So in the financial markets, we believe that this is the safest investment that you can possibly get.

是以，在金融市場上，我們認為這是最安全的投資。

So if you are getting on that 4.5% and this is almost risk-free, then if you are investing in mortgage-backed securities, you are taking some level of risk.

是以，如果你能獲得 4.5% 的收益，而且這幾乎是無風險的，那麼如果你投資於抵押貸款支持證券，你就承擔了一定程度的風險。

Especially the 2008 financial crisis proved to everybody that the housing market is vulnerable.

特別是 2008 年的金融危機向所有人證明，房地產市場是脆弱的。

So you are expecting a slightly higher return from the treasury bills, let's say by 1-2%.

是以，您期望從國庫券中獲得略高的回報，比方說 1%-2%。

Because if mortgage-backed securities would provide also 4.5%, then investors would always choose treasury bills over mortgage-backed securities.

因為如果抵押支持證券也能提供 4.5%的收益，那麼投資者總是會選擇國庫券而不是抵押支持證券。

So to attract investors, you have to provide with a slightly higher return.

是以，為了吸引投資者，你必須提供稍高的回報。

You also have an option to invest in index funds that provide you with a slightly higher return of 7-10%.

您還可以選擇投資指數基金，其回報率略高，為 7-10%。

An index fund is basically a financial institution that invests in the stock market.

指數基金基本上是一種投資於股票市場的金融機構。

Now, the stock market is slightly more riskier than the treasury bills or the housing market because it actually involves a lot of elements of risk.

現在，股票市場的風險比國庫券或房地產市場稍高，因為它實際上涉及很多風險因素。

These are businesses, they create products and they sell them to people.

這些都是企業，他們創造產品，然後賣給人們。

And today there is demand for these products, tomorrow there isn't But because index funds invest in a wide variety of businesses, the risks are very low.

今天對這些產品有需求，明天就沒有了，但由於指數基金投資的企業種類繁多，風險很低。

Since if one business goes down, another business is going to rise.

因為如果一家企業倒閉，另一家企業就會崛起。

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住房市場出現嚴重問題 (Something is going deeply wrong in Housing Market)

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