Name: 我分析了房地產市場，它遠比你想象的糟糕 (I Analysed The Housing Market, Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-07-18T19:06:25.000Z
Duration: 30 min 36 s

程度副詞

House prices are completely out of control.

If you can't buy a house, it's not your fault.

如果你買不起房子，那不是你的錯。

轉承詞

Because the government, together with wall street, over the last 25 to 30 years have been consistently destroying the housing market, to the point where house prices got out of control.

因為在過去的 25 到 30 年裡，政府和華爾街一直在破壞房地產市場，以至於房價失控。

And the only way to get out of it is to have a massive housing crash.

而擺脫困境的唯一辦法就是發生大規模的房地產崩盤。

If you think I am exaggerating and it sounds like a conspiracy theory, let me explain step by step what exactly is happening.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，聽起來像陰謀論，那就讓我一步步解釋到底發生了什麼。

So give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

是以，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

Back in 1980s, the median house price was around 55 to 60 thousand dollars, while the median income was 18 thousand dollars.

上世紀 80 年代，房價中位數約為 5.5 至 6 萬美元，而收入中位數為 1.8 萬美元。

If you adjust that to inflation, then it's around 60 thousand dollars, or probably more 58 thousand dollars to be more accurate.

如果根據通脹率進行調整，則約為 6 萬美元，更準確地說，可能是 5.8 萬美元。

And over time, house prices have been consistently growing.

而隨著時間的推移，房價一直在持續增長。

But the only reason the price of anything would grow, if there is demand for it.

但是，只有在有需求的情況下，任何東西的價格才會增長。

If people are making more money, people would be buying more houses, and the price of houses would continue to grow.

如果人們賺的錢多了，就會買更多的房子，房價也會繼續增長。

But if you compare the median house price historically compared to the median household income, you will see a very clear trend, that over time, houses simply became too expensive while people cannot possibly afford them.

但是，如果將歷史上的房價中位數與家庭收入中位數進行比較，就會發現一個非常明顯的趨勢，那就是隨著時間的推移，房子變得太貴了，而人們卻不可能負擔得起。

Back in 1980s, the median house price was an equivalent to 3 household incomes.

上世紀 80 年代，房價中位數相當於 3 個家庭的收入。

That means that 3 years of household incomes would equal to a single house.

也就是說，3 年的家庭收入相當於一棟房子。

Yes, houses are still expensive at that rate, but still, it is possible for most people to afford a house.

是的，按照這個價格，房子還是很貴，但大多數人還是有可能買得起房子。

You can save that money, get a mortgage, and somehow be able to afford a house.

你可以把這些錢存起來，申請抵押貸款，這樣就能買得起房子了。

If you compare that to today, to 2025, that ratio has grown 7 to 1. 7 household income today would equal to a single house if you take the median income and the average price of the house.

如果與今天相比，到 2025 年，這一比例已經增長到 7 比 1。如果以收入中位數和房屋均價來計算，今天的 7 個家庭收入就相當於一棟房屋。

If you look at these two graphs closely, you will see a very inconsistent pattern.

如果仔細觀察這兩幅圖，你會發現其中的模式非常不一致。

For example, in the early 2000s, house prices have been continuously growing.

例如，本世紀初，房價持續增長。

However, if you compare that to median household income, incomes have been going down.

然而，如果與家庭收入中位數相比，收入一直在下降。

In the early 2000s, the dotcom bubble burst and the entire economy is crushed.

本世紀初，網絡保麗龍破滅，整個經濟崩潰。

People's income began to fell, which means that people should not be able to afford a house.

人們的收入開始下降，這意味著人們應該買不起房子。

But suddenly if you see it, house prices have been increasing since the early 2000s.

但如果你突然發現，房價自 2000 年代初以來一直在上漲。

That doesn't make sense because people are earning less money, which means that the demand for houses should go down, which means that house prices should not be rising this fast.

這說不通，因為人們掙的錢少了，這意味著對房屋的需求應該減少，這意味著房價不應該漲得這麼快。

Another example is after the 2008 financial crisis.

另一個例子是 2008 年金融危機之後。

You see a huge sharp in the incomes of people.

你會看到人們的收入大幅提高。

However, house prices did not suffer that much and they quickly recovered.

然而，房價並沒有受到太大影響，而且很快就恢復了。

And it took much longer, for example, for incomes to go back to the exact level of 2008.

例如，收入恢復到 2008 年的確切水準需要更長的時間。

另一個很好的例子是大流行病。

In 2020, you can see a very clear pattern that the median income began to fell down.

2020 年，你可以看到一個非常明顯的模式，即收入中位數開始下降。

Because people are sitting in their homes, people are not making as much money, and a lot of people lost their jobs.

因為人們坐在家裡，賺不到那麼多錢，很多人失去了工作。

On one side, the stock market was growing and there were plenty of opportunities.

一方面，股市在增長，機會很多。

On the other side, a lot of people were forced to not leave their houses in order to prevent the disease from spreading all across the country.

另一方面，許多人被迫足不出戶，以防止疾病在全國蔓延。

That should be a very logical sign that demand for a lot of products would go down as well.

這應該是一個非常合理的信號，表明對許多產品的需求也會下降。

Houses are not cheap, houses are expensive, and nobody would risk buying a house when they don't have the money to buy that house in the first place.

房子不便宜，房子很貴，沒有人會在沒有錢買房子的情況下冒險買房子。

But if you look at house prices, suddenly you see a huge increase in the price of houses to the point that most people could not even comprehend what exactly is happening.

但是，如果你看看房價，你會突然發現房價大幅上漲，以至於大多數人甚至無法理解到底發生了什麼。

And this inconsistency between the price of the house and the median income led to the fact that today most people cannot possibly afford a house.

而房價與收入中位數之間的這種不一致，導致如今大多數人都買不起房。

The median income today is around $75,000.

如今，收入中位數約為 75,000 美元。

After taxes, it is going to be around $60,000.

Which means that on average, the average household is making $5,000.

也就是說，平均每個家庭的收入為 5,000 美元。

Now this is not individual income, this is household income.

這不是個人收入，而是家庭收入。

If you save 20% of your income, it is going to be $12,000 a year.

如果你將收入的 20% 用作儲蓄，那麼一年就有 12000 美元。

And it will take you 35 years to save for a single house.

而你需要 35 年才能攢夠一套房子。

There is no way you can save your money to buy a house.

Especially by the time you are going to save your money, house prices won't just double in 35 years, they will triple.

尤其是到你要存錢的時候，房價在 35 年內不僅會翻一番，還會翻三番。

So the money that you have saved will worth absolutely nothing.

這樣一來，你省下的錢就一文不值了。

The only way for anybody to buy a house is a mortgage.

任何人買房的唯一途徑就是抵押貸款。

So let's take the median house price today, which is $417,000.

是以，讓我們以目前的房價中位數（41.7 萬美元）為例。

Assuming that you are a responsible buyer, you will put a 20% down payment, I mean, without that nobody is going to give you a house or a mortgage.

如果你是一個負責任的買家，你會支付 20% 的首付，我的意思是，如果沒有首付，沒人會給你房子或抵押貸款。

After a $20,000 payment and a 30-year mortgage and 7% interest rates or a mortgage rate, because mortgage rates today are between 6-7%, your monthly payments will total to $2,500.

在支付了 20,000 美元和 30 年期抵押貸款以及 7% 的利率或抵押貸款利率（因為現在的抵押貸款利率在 6%-7% 之間）之後，您的月供總額將達到 2,500 美元。

That means that more than half of your income is directly being paid for your mortgage in order to have a roof over your house.

這意味著，您收入的一半以上都直接用於還房貸，以便有房住。

And if you know anything about owning a house, especially those who are watching this video, and know that owning a house isn't just about your mortgage payments.

如果你對擁有房子有所瞭解，尤其是那些正在觀看本視頻的人，就會知道擁有房子不僅僅是為了支付按揭貸款。

It's about renovations, it's about utility bills, it's about consistently something breaks down.

這關係到翻修，關係到水電費，關係到故障的持續發生。

And there is a lot of more cost that comes with buying a house.

而且，買房還要付出更多的成本。

Which means that something between 60-65% of your entire income would go into the house assuming that you are going to get a mortgage and you are on the median income and you will buy the median house.

這意味著，假設您將獲得抵押貸款，並且您的收入處於中位數，您將購買中位數的房屋，那麼您全部收入的 60-65% 將用於購買房屋。

If you look at individual cases in particular cities where house prices have doubled or tripled and have gone much farther than the chart that I have showed you, it is insane, it's impossible for anybody to buy a house in those places.

如果你看看個別城市的情況，那裡的房價已經翻了兩三倍，比我給你看的圖表中的情況還要高得多，這太瘋狂了，任何人都不可能在那些地方買到房子。

But even if you take the average across the country, the math does not make sense.

但即使是全國的平均值，計算也是不合理的。

Based on this math, nobody can afford a house, if we take the average joe, if we take the average American.

根據這種計算方法，如果我們以普通喬為例，如果我們以普通美國人為例，沒有人能買得起房子。

But if you take a look at this graph, you suddenly see a very clear pattern, and you find out the answer to the question.

但是，如果你看一下這張圖，你會突然發現一個非常清晰的模式，並找到問題的答案。

M2 money is the amount of money that exists in the economy.

M2 貨幣是指經濟中存在的貨幣量。

But this isn't just the physical cash that exists, but all the money that exists in banks accounts, in savings accounts.

但這不僅僅是存在的實物現金，而是存在於銀行賬戶、儲蓄賬戶中的所有資金。

And over the last 60 to 70 years, the amount of M2 money has been growing exponentially, especially if you pay attention at the early 1990s.

在過去的六七十年裡，M2 貨幣的數量呈指數增長，尤其是在 20 世紀 90 年代初。

So if you look at the M2 money pattern and you see it at house prices, suddenly you see that house prices have been consistently growing alongside of M2 money.

是以，如果你觀察一下 M2 貨幣的模式，並將其與房價聯繫起來，你會突然發現房價一直與 M2 貨幣同步增長。

If you increase the money supply, asset prices sooner or later have to reflect the amount of money that exists in the economy.

如果增加貨幣供應量，資產價格遲早要反映經濟中的貨幣量。

And that's why house prices have been growing exponentially.

However, that doesn't mean that your income is going to reflect the M2 money.

但是，這並不意味著你的收入會反映出 M2 的資金。

Even if the money supply is growing, that does not obligate your boss to increase your paycheck.

即使貨幣供應量在增長，你的老闆也沒有義務增加你的工資。

That does not obligate your company to pay you money.

這並不意味著你的公司有義務給你錢。

But asset prices will start reflecting the amount of money that exists within the economy.

但資產價格將開始反映經濟中的貨幣量。

And a very clear example is the 2008 financial crisis.

一個非常明顯的例子就是 2008 年的金融危機。

And you see that the median income started going dramatically down.

你會發現，收入中位數開始急劇下降。

Yes, house prices for a short period of time dropped, however, they recovered very quickly.

是的，房價在短時間內有所下降，但很快就恢復了。

And that's because during the 2008 financial crisis, M2 money didn't just shrank but actually it increased exponentially.

這是因為在 2008 年金融危機期間，M2 貨幣不僅沒有縮水，反而成倍增長。

So the real question is that, why did we increase suddenly the amount of M2 money in the economy?

是以，真正的問題是，我們為什麼要突然增加經濟中的 M2 貨幣量？

What exactly has happened over the last 30 to 40 years that M2 money began to exponentially grow to the point where asset prices had to adjust, but nobody obligates businesses to raise your income alongside the increase of M2 money.

在過去的三四十年裡，M2 貨幣開始指數式增長，以至於資產價格不得不進行調整，但沒有人規定企業必須在 M2 貨幣增長的同時提高你的收入。

At the end of the day, what drives the price of anything is demand and supply.

歸根結底，任何事物的價格都是由供求關係決定的。

If there is a strong demand for anything, the price of that thing is going to increase.

如果對任何事物的需求旺盛，該事物的價格就會上漲。

If everybody today would want to buy iPhones, Apple can increase their prices knowing that people are ready to pay for that.

如果今天每個人都想買 iPhone，蘋果公司就可以提高價格，因為他們知道人們願意為此買單。

On the other side, if people are not ready to pay for anything, the price of that thing is going to go down.

另一方面，如果人們不願意為任何東西買單，那麼該東西的價格就會下降。

So the only reason that house prices went exponentially high is for some reason all this time there was such a strong demand for these houses.

是以，房價成倍上漲的唯一原因是，出於某種原因，人們一直對這些房屋有如此強烈的需求。

On the other side, there is the supply side.

If businesses see an opportunity that there is a strong demand for houses, don't you think that a lot of people would jump into the opportunity to build those houses, to provide those houses to the people who are ready to buy them?

如果企業看到了對房屋有強烈需求的機會，難道你不認為很多人會抓住機會建造這些房屋，為準備購買房屋的人提供這些房屋嗎？

And that's why when you have a capitalistic economy, when you have a free market, you don't have to worry about it.

這就是為什麼當你擁有一個資本主義經濟，當你擁有一個自由市場時，你就不必擔心這個問題。

Even if there is going to be a financial crisis, even if the market is going to crash, you know for a fact that the market is going to adjust itself.

即使會發生金融危機，即使市場會崩潰，你也知道市場會自我調整。

When on the other side, the suppliers would see that there is not a strong demand for houses, suppliers are not simply going to build those houses.

反過來，如果供應商發現市場對房屋的需求並不旺盛，供應商也不會簡單地建造這些房屋。

So you don't have this exponential rise in prices.

這樣就不會出現價格指數式上漲。

The problem is that when you start messing up with supply and demand, that is when you get a real problem.

問題是，當你開始擾亂供求關係時，就會出現真正的問題。

And that's exactly what government and wall street have been doing since early 1980s and 90s.

而這正是政府和華爾街自 20 世紀 80 年代初和 90 年代以來一直在做的事情。

Once upon a time, the government decided that they want to help the average American.

從前，政府決定要幫助普通美國人。

It's very rare to think that politicians really want to help the average person, but how can they help them?

認為政治家真的想幫助普通人的想法非常罕見，但他們如何才能幫助普通人呢？

So the government decided that we will try to help the poor people to buy a house by helping them to get a much lower mortgage rate.

是以，政府決定，我們將努力幫助窮人買房，幫助他們獲得更低的抵押貸款利率。

If you can get a lower mortgage rate, I mean, you can't afford that house in the first place, but you probably make $3,000 a month, $5,000 a month.

如果你能拿到更低的抵押貸款利率，我的意思是，你本來就買不起那套房子，但你可能每月掙 3000 美元或 5000 美元。

字幕列表影片播放

我分析了房地產市場，它遠比你想象的糟糕 (I Analysed The Housing Market, Its Far Worse Than You Expect)

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assume

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guarantee