Name: 美國是否有重蹈覆轍的風險？| DW新聞 (Is the US at risk of repeating past mistakes? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-20T16:56:10.000Z
Duration: 22 min 19 s

As we've heard Donald Trump will decide whether the US will join Israel and bombing Iran within two weeks But direct US involvement in the conflict risks a backlash from parts of Trump's political base The US president also campaigned on keeping America out of foreign wars I mean, you don't know that I'm gonna even do it.

正如我們所聽到的，唐納德-特朗普將在兩週內決定美國是否加入以色列和轟炸伊朗的行列，但美國直接參與衝突有可能引起特朗普部分政治基礎的反彈。

情態助動詞 B1

程度副詞

I may not do it I mean, nobody knows what I'm gonna do I can US President Donald Trump keeping the world in suspense as he faces the most momentous foreign policy Decisions so far in his second term No one knows what he'll do but within his administration and coalition of supporters There are very different ideas of what Trump should do hawkish commentators and supporters in Congress are all in on bombing Iran's nuclear facilities Iran nuclear program is very close and the world will be better off for it But many of Trump's most fervent MAGA and America first supporters are against military action His former adviser Steve Bannon has advised Trump to stay out of the conflict national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard said earlier this year that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons and Influential representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said on social media Anyone Slobbering for the u.s.

我可能不會這麼做美國總統唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在其第二個任期內面臨迄今為止最重大的外交政策決定，他讓世界充滿懸念，沒有人知道他會怎麼做，但在他的政府和支持者聯盟內部，對於特朗普應該怎麼做，存在著截然不同的看法。他的前顧問史蒂夫-班農（Steve Bannon）建議特朗普置身衝突之外，國家情報總監圖爾西-加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）今年早些時候表示，伊朗並未尋求核武器，而有影響力的代表馬喬裡-泰勒-格林（Marjorie Taylor Greene）則在社交媒體上表示，任何人都可

To become fully involved in the Israel-iran war is not America first MAGA This conservative civil war came to a head on right-wing media personality Tucker Carlson's show the host locking horns with pro-intervention senator Ted Cruz No, you don't know anything about the country you're the one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump Beyond the splits in Trump's base allies have called for de-escalation But he's shown little interest in listening to them and Russia has warned the u.s.

完全捲入以色列和伊朗的戰爭不是美國優先 MAGA 這場保守派內戰在右翼媒體人塔克-卡爾森的節目中一觸即發，主持人與支持干預的參議員特德-克魯茲針鋒相對 不，你對這個國家一無所知，你才是那個聲稱他們不是要謀殺唐納德-特朗普的人 除了特朗普的盟友們呼籲緩和局勢之外，特朗普的基本立場也發生了分裂，但他對傾聽盟友們的意見興趣不大，俄羅斯也對美國發出了警告。

Against military intervention Calling it an extremely dangerous step Then there are the risks of unintended consequences It's far from clear that America's bunker busting bombs which have never been used in combat will actually take out Iran's Fordow enrichment complex Even if they do there's a high risk that Iran would retaliate against u.s.

反對軍事幹預，稱這是極其危險的一步 還有意外後果的風險 美國從未在實戰中使用過的掩體破壞炸彈是否真的能摧毀伊朗的福爾道鈾濃縮聯合企業，這一點還很不清楚。

Troops in the Middle East that would almost certainly lead the u.s.

在中東駐軍，幾乎肯定會導致美國

To strike Iran again a Potential spiral out of control that could lead to full-on war That would lead to a spike in oil prices widespread economic disruption could follow Trump faces a choice between heeding advice to take decisive action Versus his campaign promises not to start forever wars.

如果再次打擊伊朗，可能會導致局勢失控，進而引發全面戰爭，進而導致油價飆升，進而引發廣泛的經濟混亂。

The world is waiting to see which side will win Let's bring in our Washington bureau chief Enos Paul and it's great to see you You just returned from today's White House briefing a possibly presidency defining decision within two weeks.

讓我們有請華盛頓分社社長伊諾斯-保羅 很高興見到你 你剛從今天的白宮簡報會回來 這可能是兩週內總統任期內的決定

All right, it was really a quite a substantial briefing which is not always the case Donald Trump's spokesperson Caroline Leavitt read a direct message from the president, which also doesn't happen often in which he Announced he would decide within the next two weeks whether the United States would become involved in military actions or not We of course wanted to know what criteria he would use to make that decision But Caroline Leavitt didn't reveal much.

唐納德-特朗普的發言人卡羅琳-利維特（Caroline Leavitt）宣讀了總統的直接資訊，這也並不常見，其中他宣佈將在未來兩週內決定美國是否會參與軍事行動。

She Repeatedly stated and that's important that the president is still hoping for diplomatic solution and that his main Interest is in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and that he's not interested in In kind of being involved in any regime change Meanwhile resistance to possible interventions is growing within the Republican Party among Democrats Of course as well, but especially also among Trump's MAGA base Are we seeing a rift emerge between Trump and his most loyal allies?

她一再表示，總統仍希望通過外交途徑解決問題，他的主要興趣是防止伊朗獲得核武器，他對參與任何政權更迭都不感興趣，這一點很重要。同時，共和黨內民主黨人對可能的干預行動的牴觸情緒也在增加，當然，尤其是在特朗普的 MAGA 黨基礎中，我們是否看到特朗普與其最忠實的盟友之間出現了裂痕？

This is indeed a significant problem for Donald Trump as we all pray probably remember He promised during his campaign not only to end the war in Ukraine on day one, but also become a no war President and where are we now?

這確實是唐納德-特朗普面臨的一個重大問題，我們都可能記得他在競選期間承諾不僅要在第一天就結束烏克蘭戰爭，還要成為一個不發動戰爭的總統，而我們現在在哪裡？

We are still having the war going on in Ukraine and we have another war in Gaza and now we have a potential US engagement in the war in Iran So he really has to be careful here because recent polls indicate that his base doesn't want US military involvement Abroad and this is another reason why his administration is so heavily focused on finding a diplomatic solution Can we expect Europe to play a role here at all Well, the White House wasn't too pleased that Europeans will be meeting with the Iranians without us in the first place, however The Trump administration made it clear that he Donald Trump expects that the European leaders will fully support Whatever Donald Trump decides but let's be quite frank Europe Especially Germany doesn't have much to offer at least for now when it comes to the military equipment Needed to destroy these facilities in Iran Maybe in terms of diplomacy, that was DW is Washington bureau chief Enos Paul.

我們仍在烏克蘭進行著戰爭，我們在加沙又有一場戰爭，現在我們又有可能讓美國捲入伊朗戰爭，所以他在這裡真的必須小心謹慎，因為最近的民意調查顯示，他的選民不希望美國在國外進行軍事介入，這也是為什麼他的政府如此重視尋求外交解決方案的另一個原因、白宮對歐洲人將在沒有我們在場的情況下與伊朗人會面並不太高興，但特朗普政府明確表示，唐納德-特朗普希望歐洲領導人將全力支持唐納德-特朗普的決定，但坦率地說，歐洲，尤其是德國，至少目前在摧毀伊朗這些設施所需的軍事裝備方面並沒有太多可提供的，也許在外交方面，華盛頓分社社長伊諾斯-

Thanks so much Let's bring in Fowler's jerseys He's a professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics Fowler's welcome back to DW.

非常感謝 讓我們請出 Fowler's jerseys，他是倫敦經濟學院中東政治和國際關係教授 Fowler's 歡迎回到 DW。

It's always great to have you on the show Donald Trump says he will decide within two weeks what to do.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）說，他將在兩週內決定怎麼做。

Intervention change the nature of this conflict?

Very hopeful that there is a window of opportunity for diplomacy If you had asked me earlier, I would have said that President Trump was planning to join Israel's war against Iran.

非常希望有一扇外交的機會之窗 如果你早些時候問我，我會說特朗普總統正計劃加入以色列對伊朗的戰爭。

I think his statement is very consequential Today, he seems to be taking his time and I think we might see a diplomatic breakthrough In the next few days and he has made it very clear He wants to give diplomacy a chance and the Iranians are very much interested in diplomacy They're sending their foreign minister tomorrow to meet with their German and French and British Counterparts and I think this European diplomatic pathway could really I mean Produce a kind of breakthrough because it's coordinated with the Trump administration Let's look at what's at stake here because parallels are being drawn between US deployments in the past namely Iraq and Afghanistan does the u.s.

我認為他今天的發言非常重要、他似乎在慢慢來，我認為我們可能會在未來幾天看到外交突破，他已經說得很清楚，他想給外交一個機會，而伊朗人也對外交非常感興趣。我認為歐洲的外交途徑真的可以帶來突破，因為它與特朗普政府是協調一致的。 讓我們看看這其中的利害關係，因為美國過去在伊拉克和阿富汗的部署與此相似。s.

Risk repeating errors from the past here Well, I mean that's the fear Because as you know the new conservatives in the United States manufactured false evidence in 2002 and 2003 About Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction in order to justify America's invasion and occupation of Iraq, which was catastrophic It was catastrophic for Iraq and it was catastrophic for the neighborhood and now it seems to me There's a similar narrative here just for your own viewers two days ago CNN reported quoting American intelligence officials the US intelligence assessment found that Iran has not been actively engaged in building a nuclear weapon and Has been or is three years away from having the capacity to do so Today the White House said it was only a couple of weeks away Exactly and when when President Trump was challenged about his directive intelligence who told That you know the Congress in March that the the u.s intelligence assessment believes that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon and the Supreme Leader of Iran has not basically authorized a Program to develop a nuclear weapon.

有可能重蹈覆轍 我是說，這就是我們擔心的 因為你們知道，美國新保守派 在2002年和2003年製造了薩達姆-侯賽因 和他的大規模殺傷性武器的虛假證據這對伊拉克是災難性的，對周邊地區也是災難性的，而現在在我看來，這裡也有類似的說法，只是為了你們自己的觀眾 兩天前，CNN援引美國情報官員的話報道稱，美國情報評估發現，伊朗並未積極製造核武器，並且已經或正在用三年時間來擁有製造核武器的能力。美國情報部門的評估認為，伊朗沒有發展核武器，伊朗最高領袖基本上沒有授權發展核武器的計劃。

I don't care what she what she said He's my rector of intelligence, but let's focus on the present now.

我不管她說了什麼，他是我的智慧校長，但我們還是專注於現在吧。

It seems to me that Donald Trump is Rethinking his early You know decision to intervene to attack Iran and I'm hopeful that we might see a breakthrough Even though the situation in in Israel and Iran is extremely now very dangerous given the Attacks and counterattacks by both side on their cities.

在我看來，唐納德-特朗普正在反思他早先做出的干預伊朗的決定，我希望我們能看到突破，儘管以色列和伊朗的局勢現在非常危險，因為雙方都對自己的城市發動了攻擊和反擊。

您認為還有達成協議的餘地嗎？

That would be acceptable to Israel Iran and the u.s Think what matters here is the United States what matters is one man Donald Trump if Donald Trump believes that a diplomatic Pathway meets his conditions I think he could easily pressure Netanyahu to end the war and I think my take on it is that the Iranians are very serious About finding a diplomatic solution.

如果唐納德-特朗普認為外交途徑符合他的條件，我認為他可以輕鬆地向內塔尼亞胡施壓以結束戰爭。

They have sent messages feelers to the Qataris and the Omani's and We know very well that they have contacted the White House according to President Trump.

他們已經向卡塔爾人和阿曼人發出了資訊，我們很清楚，據特朗普總統說，他們已經聯繫了白宮。

So I'm hopeful I'm hoping that both the United States and Iran could basically go back to the Negotiating table as you and I would have been talking about it in the past two months and find a way out of this dangerous That'd be bad luck Yeah, and just to be clear Iran denies having reached out to the White House just before we wrap up What conditions do you think would need to be met for an agreement to be?

是以，我希望美國和伊朗能夠回到談判桌上，就像你我在過去兩個月裡一直談論的那樣，找到擺脫危險的辦法。

Satisfactory to the United States because they have insisted in the past that they want all nuclear capabilities to disappear from Iran This is critical challenge Facing any diplomatic really settlement will Iran accept?

讓美國滿意，因為他們過去一直堅持希望所有核能力從伊朗消失 這是至關重要的挑戰 面對任何真正的外交解決方案，伊朗會接受嗎？

any agreement that does not really allow it to enrich uranium on its soil a Creative way an imaginative way could be found to basically bridge the divide between the United States and Iran if you ask me what are the chances of an agreement if the two sides sit down on the Negotiating tables.

如果你問我，如果雙方坐在談判桌上，達成協議的可能性有多大？

I would say it's probably five out of ten or six out of ten at this particular moment Because Iran has suffered a great deal Iran does not really want to be dragged into war with the United States It wants to avoid all-out war with Donald Trump So that gives me some hope and it seems to me that Donald Trump is really reflecting on the risks basically deciding to attack Iran and join Israel's war against Iran and those risks could almost not be greater That was follows jergy's professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at LSE.

因為伊朗已經遭受了巨大的損失，伊朗並不希望被拖入與美國的戰爭，它希望避免與唐納德-特朗普的全面戰爭，所以這給了我一些希望，在我看來，唐納德-特朗普確實在反思風險，基本上決定攻擊伊朗，加入以色列對伊朗的戰爭，而這些風險幾乎沒有比這更大的了。

Always great to have you on the show Me Joining me now is Ben.

很高興你能來參加我的節目 現在加入我的是本。

Ooh He's the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and joins us now from Washington DC good to have you with us again, then I'm now President Trump wants two weeks to make a decision on US involvement in this conflict.

他是保衛民主基金會伊朗項目的高級主管，現在正在華盛頓特區與我們連線，很高興你能再次與我們連線。

What's your interpretation of this time frame, especially considering?

特別是考慮到這一時間段，您對此有何解釋？

Trump recently called for Iran surrender Pleasure to be back with you Putting the actual nature of the strike away itself.

特朗普最近呼籲伊朗投降 很高興能回到您身邊，與您一起探討打擊行動本身的實際性質。

The two-week window can be interpreted positively or negatively if you're supporter of the strike he can be interpreted positively in the sense that it would give these really is more time to disarm or defang the rest of the Iranian missile and military apparatus that probably would be used to respond to a high impact and high value strike that the u.s.

如果你支持這次打擊，兩週的時間窗口可以被積極或消極地解讀，從這個意義上說，它可以給這些人更多的時間來解除伊朗其餘飛彈和軍事設備的武裝或使其喪失能力，而這些設備很可能會被用來應對美國的高影響和高價值打擊。

Would be engaging in if it went after the Ford of facility and if you're not in favor of a strike instead looking to build Leverage.

如果你不贊成罷工，而是希望建立槓桿效應，那麼你就會參與其中。

Well, then this is the time really to build leverage for a potentially bigger broader better deal one That may meet the president's high standard of quote-unquote surrender Or may very much be in line with some of the last u.s.

那麼，現在是時候為一個可能更大、更廣泛、更好的協議建立籌碼了，這個協議可能符合總統引述的投降的高標準，也可能在很大程度上與美國過去的一些協議一致。

Proposals to the Iranians prior to this entire ordeal going kinetic So there's different ways to spin it and like all things in life Where you sit on this issue where you stand on this issue very much depends on where you sit Meanwhile Israel says it'll step up its attacks What with Iran showing no sign of letting up its attacks either So, how do you expect this to play out in the next in the immediate future?

是以，有不同的方式來解決這個問題，就像生活中的所有事情一樣 你在這個問題上的立場在很大程度上取決於你的立場 與此同時，以色列說它將加強其攻擊 伊朗也沒有放鬆其攻擊的跡象，所以，你如何預期這將在未來的近期內發揮？

And that is indeed the most Likeliest scenario where these really see the up to two-week window as an opportunity to really as you mentioned Step up those attacks potentially push the Iranians further to further reduce the number of launchers available Because without the launchers the regime's most likely and already most consistent vector of response, which is direct medium-range ballistic missile attacks from Iranian territory I will have less and less and less of a chance of succeeding and put the regime to the choice between Using these projectiles or saving them for a potential future regime survival scenario So I that's why I think these really is you're gonna be spinning it of course the challenge here is that as you as the operations continue and if the operations move back into targeted centers in the Targets go if operations continue and targets are selected within major population centers such as the capital Tehran for instance The chances of civilian casualties going up is higher.

這的確是最可能發生的情況，正如你所提到的加緊攻擊，可能會促使伊朗進一步減少可用發射器的數量，因為如果沒有發射器，伊朗政權最可能也是最一貫的應對手段，即從伊朗境內直接發射中程彈道導彈，成功的機會將越來越小，並使伊朗政權在使用這些射彈還是將其留待未來可能的政權生存方案之間做出選擇、從伊朗領土上直接發射中程彈道導彈 成功的機率會越來越小 讓伊朗政權在使用這些彈道導彈 還是將其留作未來政權生存之用之間做出選擇

So there's no doubt that unfortunately There is still plenty more shooting going ahead for the next two weeks And Iran has put out this warning to the US against any direct interference Threatening severe consequences.

是以，毫無疑問，不幸的是，在接下來的兩週內，仍有大量槍戰在進行。 伊朗已向美國發出警告，反對任何直接干涉，並威脅要承擔嚴重後果。

You know in the pre Entry period those severe consequences are designed to change American Calculations and to erode America's will to enter the fight rather than capability to enter the fight Broadly those are seen as just being a few things.

要知道，在參戰前，這些嚴重後果旨在改變美國的計算，削弱美國參戰的意願，而不是參戰的能力。

One is the direct or indirect attacks either by the Iranian government particularly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Firing ballistic missiles or cruise missiles or drones at bases or military facilities or even diplomatic facilities From Iraq all the way down to the southern part of the Persian Gulf And then there's also the chance that Shia militias in Iraq or Yemen could re-enter the fight being you know There's a chance of course that the Islamic Republic escalates its Claim for NPT withdrawal and then of course Potentially even mining or trying to prevent or impede and the free flow of commerce And energy through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf so the regime has options here But each one of these options is risky costly and will almost certainly trigger an American response But the US is leaving room for a return to talks with Iran.

一是伊朗政府，特別是伊斯蘭革命衛隊直接或間接的攻擊，向基地、軍事設施甚至外交設施發射彈道導彈、巡航導彈或無人機，從伊拉克一直到波斯灣南部。當然，伊斯蘭共和國也有可能升級其退出《不擴散核武器條約》的訴求，甚至有可能開採或試圖阻止或阻礙商業和能源通過霍爾木茲海峽和波斯灣的自由流動，是以，伊朗政權在這裡有各種選擇，但每一種選擇都有風險，代價高昂，幾乎肯定會引發美國的迴應。

It depends a great deal on how much of a you know Face-saving line of retreats the regime may believe talks afford it as well as what the status or balance of forces are between Israel and Iran during those two weeks whichever side feels like it may have the upper hand and probably have the ability to Shape or drive the incentive of the other for some kind of a diplomatic outcome But make no mistake the Islamic Republic does back down when faced with pressure But that is when it is faced with sustained pressure and sustained pressure takes time and certainly the current supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei Whose life has a directly or indirectly been threatened by all these leaks that say You know the Iranian the Americans may be willing to target him or the Israelis may be willing to target him Is going to be thinking about how much face-saving he can do without losing his head And I'm Ben Talibu.

這在很大程度上取決於該政權認為談判能給它帶來多少 "面子"。這在很大程度上取決於該政權認為談判能給它帶來多少退路，以及在這兩週內以色列和伊朗之間的地位或力量平衡是怎樣的，哪一方覺得它可能佔上風，並可能有能力塑造或推動另一方的動機，以取得某種外交結果，但不要搞錯，伊斯蘭共和國在面對壓力時確實會退讓。當然，伊朗現任最高領導人哈梅內伊的生命直接或間接地受到了這些洩密消息的威脅，這些洩密消息稱美國人可能願意針對伊朗，以色列人可能願意針對伊朗。我是本-塔里布

Thank you for your insights as usual Thank you Let's discuss the situation with Giorgio Caffiero is a Middle East analyst and the CEO and founder of Gulf state Analytics joining us from Washington DC.

謝謝您一如既往的真知灼見 謝謝 讓我們與喬治-卡菲羅（Giorgio Caffiero）討論一下中東局勢，他是中東問題分析家，也是海灣國家分析公司（Gulf state Analytics）的創始人兼首席執行官。

Good to have you with us Donald Trump campaigned as a peacemaker someone who would be Ending and not starting wars, but now his own party is even split over this potential intervention in Iran Does this place Trump in a difficult position?

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在競選時曾說自己是和平締造者，會結束戰爭，不會挑起戰爭，但現在他所在的黨派在可能干預伊朗問題上甚至出現了分裂，這是否讓特朗普陷入了困境？

Yeah Well, first of all, thanks for having me on your program there is no doubt that the Israel Iran conflict has Resulted in or at least exposed a huge divide in Trump's base that make America great again movement.

毫無疑問，以色列和伊朗的衝突已經導致或至少暴露了特朗普在 "讓美國再次偉大 "運動中的巨大分歧。

There are Many in his support base who want the US to have more of a restrainer foreign policy Really in contrast to the neo-conservative era of the Republican Party during the George W Bush years and even outside of Trump's base, there's very little appetite from the American public for bringing the United States into protracted conflicts and Costly quagmires in the Middle East.

與小布什時期共和黨的新保守主義時代相比，特朗普的支持者中有許多人希望美國的外交政策更加剋制，即使在特朗普的支持者之外，美國公眾也很少希望美國捲入中東地區曠日持久的衝突和代價高昂的泥潭。

So there certainly is quite a bit of domestic pressure on Trump to avoid Allowing the u.s.

是以，特朗普肯定面臨著相當大的國內壓力，要求他避免讓美國 "鋌而走險"。

To get dragged into this war on Iran right Israel is Expecting some support what what kind of support do they want or role do they want the u.s.

以色列希望得到一些支持，他們希望美國提供什麼樣的支持或扮演什麼樣的角色？

Well, this goes back way before June 13th for many years Netanyahu's government is in trying to pull the United States into a war with Iran.

這要追溯到 6 月 13 日之前，多年來內塔尼亞胡政府一直試圖將美國拉入與伊朗的戰爭。

I think it's very clear that Now that we're on day seven of this war Israel has not been able to deliver a decisive knockout and I think the thinking on the part of Israel's leadership is that for Israel to fulfill?

我認為非常明顯的是，這場戰爭已經進行到第七天了，但以色列還未能給予對手致命一擊。

It's necessary to bring the United States into the conflict I think a concern is on Israel's part that if Trump does not get the u.s.

有必要讓美國捲入這場衝突，我認為以色列方面的一個擔憂是，如果特朗普不能讓美國捲入這場衝突，那麼以色列就有可能成為美國的 "敵人"。

Involved more directly and more overtly this could turn into somewhat of a war of attrition That might not go so well for Israel.

如果以色列更直接、更公開地介入，這可能會變成一場消耗戰。

So Achieving the Israeli goals I think from the perspective of Tel Aviv requires bringing the United States in and we should emphasize that these goals go way beyond Simply dismantling Iran's nuclear program.

是以，從特拉維夫的角度來看，要實現以色列的目標，我認為需要美國的參與，而且我們應該強調，這些目標遠不止簡單地摧毀伊朗的核計劃。

That's a part of the agenda But I think Israel's real goals also include Toppling the Iranian regime and really dismantling the Iranian nation-state and fragmenting the country For that to happen.

但我認為以色列的真正目標還包括推翻伊朗政權，真正瓦解伊朗的民族國家，使其四分五裂。

They really want the United States to get involved very heavily but with Trump leaving the door open for talks with the Iranians that would not appeal to the Israelis, right?

他們非常希望美國能大力介入，但特朗普為與伊朗會談敞開大門，這對以色列人沒有吸引力，對嗎？

Well, even again before June 13th Same Situation as now the Israeli leadership does not want any American Iranian diplomacy quite frankly I don't really see any American Iranian diplomacy taking place as long as the Israeli Strikes on Iran are continuing but no to answer your question Of course Netanyahu's government does not want the Trump administration to try to pursue Some sort of a diplomatic off-ramp right now.

坦率地說，只要以色列對伊朗的打擊仍在繼續，我就不認為美國會與伊朗進行任何外交活動，但回答你的問題，內塔尼亞胡政府當然不希望特朗普政府現在就試圖尋求某種外交途徑。

That's definitely not what Israel's leadership would like to see And and what about Iran?

這絕對不是以色列領導層所希望看到的 那伊朗呢？

What options does it have at the moment and and but possible even military support?

它目前有什麼選擇，甚至可能得到軍事支持嗎？

Well, there's no doubt that Iran doesn't have too many options But I think the leadership in Tehran believes it has no choice but to try to sustain these counter-strikes against Israel I think the Iranian leadership is very worried about appearing weak blinking or slowing down the momentum of its counter-strikes Iran's leadership does not want to surrender in the event that this Israeli war on Iran Leads to the toppling of the Islamic Republic.

毫無疑問，伊朗沒有太多的選擇，但我認為德黑蘭領導層認為他們別無選擇，只能努力維持對以色列的反擊。

I think the regime would go down Certainly fighting in terms of allies that Iran has, you know I think probably in the region the most important ally would be the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen since June 13 The Houthis in Yemen have been coordinating attacks on Israel with Iran other players in the axis of resistance such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and some of the Iran aligned factions in Iraq They have been staying out of the war so far Obviously Lebanon's Hezbollah is in a much weaker position as a consequence of the war that it fought with Israel in 2023 and 2024 In terms of other actors on the international stage, I do not see Russia getting involved on the side of Iran But I think there's some support that Russia might give Iran that could help Iran sustain its war campaign, but Again, I do not see Russia getting involved directly We'll have to leave it there, but thank you very much Jojo Cafiero from the Gulf state analytics Good to be with you

我認為，就伊朗擁有的盟友而言，該政權肯定會倒臺、自 6 月 13 日以來，葉門的胡塞叛亂運動一直在與伊朗協調對以色列的襲擊，抵抗軸心的其他參與者，如黎巴嫩真主黨和伊拉克的一些與伊朗結盟的派別。顯然，由於黎巴嫩真主黨在 2023 年和 2024 年與以色列開戰，它的地位要弱得多、但我認為俄羅斯可能會向伊朗提供一些支持，幫助伊朗維持其戰爭活動，但我同樣不認為俄羅斯會直接參與其中 我們就到此為止，但非常感謝來自海灣國家分析機構的喬喬-卡菲羅 很高興與您在一起