Name: 以色列與伊朗衝突升級，美國向中東派遣軍事資產 | BBC News (US sends military assets to the Middle East as Israel-Iran conflict escalates | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-18T17:03:33.000Z
Duration: 6 min 39 s

你在拿第三次世界大戰做賭注。

As a military strategic planner, a former planner, you don't want politicians telegraphing what your next moves are going to be.

作為一名軍事戰略規劃者，一名曾經的規劃者，你不希望政客向你發出下一步行動的電報。

The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it too.

美國將接管加沙地帶，我們也將在那裡大幹一場。

A peacekeeping force does not exist with a ceasefire.

有了停火，就不存在維和部隊。

Hello, this is the Security Brief here on BBC News and in the programme, the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate with air raid sirens blaring across cities President Donald Trump calls for residents in Tehran to evacuate.

你好，這裡是BBC新聞的安全簡報，在節目中，以色列和伊朗之間的衝突繼續升級，空襲警報響徹各個城市，唐納德-特朗普總統呼籲德黑蘭居民撤離。

The United States is also sending its military might to the Middle East with a second aircraft carrier on its way to the Arabian Sea along with five destroyers.

美國也在向中東派遣軍事力量，第二艘航空母艦和五艘驅逐艦正在前往阿拉伯海的途中。

But what stage of the conflict do we find ourselves in?

但我們處於衝突的哪個階段呢？

That's the question and where might it all be heading?

這就是問題所在，這一切可能會走向何方？

Joining me to discuss as ever is former senior officer and assault helicopter pilot in the British military, Mikey Kay.

英國軍方前高級軍官和攻擊直升機飛行員米奇-凱將一如既往地與我一起討論這個問題。

And as always, Mikey will deliver his brief as he would to his generals.

米奇將一如既往地向他的將軍們做簡報。

The big question I guess everyone is asking, where does this conflict go next?

我想每個人都會問一個大問題，這場衝突接下來會走向何方？

Yeah, there's some significant developments today in terms of tracking very large movements of U.S. air assets, particularly what's called a KC-135.

是的，今天在追蹤美國航空資產的大規模移動方面有了一些重大進展，特別是所謂的KC-135。

This is a KC-135, it's a tanker aircraft so it's used to refuel fast jets, for example, heading onto a target.

這是一架 KC-135，它是一種加油機，用於為快速噴氣機加油，例如，為飛向目標的噴氣機加油。

You can see on the back or you could see on the back as it was taxiing out, there's the big boom on the back which is used to plug into the jets.

你可以看到它的背面，或者你可以看到它滑行時的背面，背面有一個大吊杆，用來連接噴氣機。

Now what's significant about this is that these aircraft are trackable and are likely refuelling U.S. strike aircraft such as the F-35 fifth generation fighter, the F-15 and possibly the F-22 Raptor which is probably one of the most advanced air defence fighters in the world which belongs to the U.S.

重要的是，這些飛機是可追蹤的，很可能正在為美國的攻擊機加油，如 F-35 第五代戰鬥機、F-15，也可能是 F-22 猛禽，它可能是世界上最先進的防空戰鬥機之一，屬於美國。

These won't be trackable but by deduction, the tankers are airborne.

這些都無法追蹤，但推斷油罐車是空運的。

It's likely there is forward deployment of U.S. strike aircraft being positioned into or near the Middle East.

美國很可能正在中東或中東附近部署攻擊機。

So I'm certainly at the moment watching for movement of these fighters across locations such as RAF Lakenheath which is a U.S. base in England or Ramstein in Germany.

是以，我目前當然在關注這些戰鬥機在英國拉肯希思皇家空軍基地（美國在英國的基地）或德國拉姆施泰因等地的動向。

There's a U.S. base that I was deployed to for six months in Aviano in Italy which is about two hours north of Venice.

我曾在意大利阿維亞諾的一個美軍基地服役六個月，那裡距離威尼斯北部大約兩小時車程。

還有塞普勒斯的阿庫蒂裡皇家空軍。

There's also movement of another U.S. aircraft carrier towards the region, the USS Nimitz.

另一艘美國航空母艦 "尼米茲 "號也在向該地區移動。

The USS Nimitz was located in the South China Sea but is now tracking westwards citing operational commitments and the Nimitz will join the USS Carl Vinson that has been on So lots of American military movement.

尼米茲號 "原位於中國南海，但現在以作戰任務為由向西追蹤，"尼米茲號 "將加入 "卡爾-文森號 "的行列。

What do you think is the U.S. strategy behind all of that?

你認為這一切背後的美國戰略是什麼？

If I was to pick two major reasons, it's for sure absolutely sending a message to Iran that the U.S. is putting massive capability into the region as a show of overwhelming force.

如果讓我挑出兩個主要原因，那肯定是絕對要向伊朗發出一個資訊，即美國正在該地區投入巨大的能力，以顯示壓倒性的力量。

But the fact that they're going to have two aircraft carriers in the region as well as major land-based strike assets, aircraft, this is significant.

但事實上，他們將在該地區擁有兩艘航空母艦以及主要的陸基打擊資產和飛機，這意義重大。

And I think it's a method of attempted coercion to get Iran to the negotiation table.

我認為這是一種試圖脅迫伊朗走上談判桌的方法。

But you may ask how successful is that going at the moment?

但你可能會問，目前進展得如何？

Well, Iran have already pulled out of the negotiations which were approaching their fifth or sixth round I believe.

伊朗已經退出了談判，我相信談判已經接近第五或第六輪了。

So it's a big gamble and whether it will work or not, whether it will de-escalate or not and bring people to the table I think is the big question that's up for grabs.

是以，這是一場豪賭，它是否會奏效，是否會緩和局勢，是否會讓人們坐到談判桌前，我認為這是一個懸而未決的大問題。

There's a lot of rhetoric about Israel wanting regime change in Iran.

以色列希望伊朗政權更迭的言論甚囂塵上。

Donald Trump may be getting America more directly involved with those bunker-busting bombs that you mentioned.

唐納德-特朗普可能會讓美國更直接地參與到你提到的那些掩體炸彈中。

We often talk on this programme about courses of action.

我們經常在節目中談論行動方案。

That's a military strategic planning term for options that are worked out by military teams that build out what a potential course of action could be.

這是一個軍事戰略規劃術語，指的是由軍事小組制定出可能的行動方案。

A most likely course of action or a most dangerous course of action.

最可能的行動方案或最危險的行動方案。

These could range from cutting the head off a snake, for example, going directly after the Ayatollah.

例如，從砍掉蛇頭到直接追殺阿亞圖拉，不一而足。

Trump, for example, posted on Truth Social.

例如，特朗普就曾在 "真理社交 "網站上發帖。

你可以去幻燈片上看看他的帖子。

He said we know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding.

他說，我們很清楚所謂的最高領導人藏在哪裡。

他很容易成為攻擊目標，但在那裡很安全。

We are not going to take him out, brackets, kill.

我們不打算幹掉他，括弧，殺了他。

That's a message in terms of what one of the potential courses of action might be.

這是一個潛在行動方案的資訊。

But then you spoke about regime change, right?

但後來你談到了政權更迭，對嗎？

That's a bigger operation to try to affect regime change.

這是一個更大的行動，試圖影響政權更迭。

And having had direct experience in Iraq over this, this is a very dangerous strategy that has proved catastrophic in the past.

在伊拉克的直接經驗告訴我們，這是一個非常危險的戰略，過去已經證明是災難性的。

Know the operation very well right from its inception in 2003 all the way up to flying operations over Baghdad in 2008.

從 2003 年行動開始，一直到 2008 年在巴格達上空執行飛行任務，我都非常熟悉。

If you take out a regime like they did with Saddam, you take out the security apparatus.

如果你像對待薩達姆那樣剷除一個政權，你就會剷除安全機構。

And if that security apparatus isn't filled with a military force or a police force, you then get a security vacuum, which is exactly what we saw.

如果安全機構中沒有軍隊或警察部隊，就會出現安全真空，這正是我們所看到的。

The consequence of this in Iraq was al-Qaeda in Iraq, al-Sukawi's terrorist outfit, they were allowed to thrive.

這在伊拉克造成的後果是，伊拉克基地組織、蘇卡威的恐怖組織得以發展壯大。

They then morphed into Islamic State in Iraq, which then morphed into Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

他們後來演變成伊拉克伊斯蘭國，再後來演變成伊拉克和敘利亞伊斯蘭國。

And the whole thing, the whole security vacuum just was a complete disaster.

整個事件、整個安全真空就是一場徹底的災難。

You then have Iranian-backed militias, the popular mobilisation forces.

然後是伊朗支持的民兵和人民動員部隊。

So the big thing for me is Iran is around four times the size of Iraq.

是以，對我來說最重要的是，伊朗的面積大約是伊拉克的四倍。

And you pursue a strategy of regime change, and there's rhetoric coming out of the US on it already, you create a way bigger problem than you ever did in Iraq.

如果你奉行政權更迭的戰略，而且美國已經就此發表了言論，那麼你所造成的問題將比你在伊拉克所造成的問題還要嚴重。

And I think we really need to look at history and how well that went in order to sit up and really, really focus on whether you want to do this, because I would absolutely advise no.

我認為，我們真的需要回顧一下歷史，看看歷史是如何發展的，然後才能坐下來，真正地、真正地關注你是否想這樣做，因為我絕對建議不要這樣做。