In recent weeks you've come out and said one point five million dollars per Bitcoin by the year 2030.

最近幾周，你站出來說，到 2030 年，每個比特幣的價值將達到一百五十萬美元。

Since then though we've seen quite a few outflows.

但從那時起，我們看到了不少資金外流。

We've seen a lot of volatility.

我們看到了很多波動。

Sheen Ali just went through that.

希恩-阿里剛剛經歷了這一切。

Is that still your view.

你還這麼認為嗎？

One point five million by 2030.

到 2030 年達到一百五十萬。

Yes it is our view.

是的，這是我們的觀點。

I think right now we're in a risk off period generally.

我認為，現在我們總體上處於風險關閉期。

And if you've been watching Bitcoin it's almost been a leader in terms of risk on risk off.

如果你一直在關注比特幣，它幾乎是風險敞口風險敞口方面的佼佼者。

So I think that's what we're seeing.

是以，我認為這就是我們所看到的。

If if we look at our on chain analytics what we see is I'm sorry I have to get this off.

如果我們看一下我們的鏈上分析，我們就會發現，對不起，我必須把這個關掉。

If you look at our on chain analytics which you will see is that we are in the middle of a little bit more than halfway through a four year cycle.

如果你看一下我們的產業鏈分析，你就會發現我們正處於四年週期的中間，時間已經過半。

We think we're still in a bull market and we believe that the deregulation that we're seeing here in the United States is is going to be very important to institutions moving into this new asset class.

我們認為，我們仍處於牛市，我們相信，我們在美國看到的放松管制對於機構進入這一新的資產類別將非常重要。

Asset allocators have to have a point of view on this new asset class.

資產配置者必須對這一新的資產類別有自己的觀點。

And we think by putting it in portfolios risk adjusted returns for the entire portfolio will go up.

我們認為，將其放入投資組合中，整個投資組合的風險調整回報率會上升。

One question I have to the point you're making here on where the risk appetite stands around Bitcoin versus other asset classes.

我有一個問題想問你，比特幣與其他資產類別相比，風險偏好在哪裡？

There has been a serious dip in markets.

市場嚴重下滑。

Kathy if you had to choose where you would buy the dip the most would it be in Bitcoin Tesla or NVIDIA.

凱西，如果讓你選擇在哪裡買入跌幅最大的比特幣，你會選擇特斯拉還是英偉達？

Oh my goodness.

我的天啊

Well we we post our trades every day and you'll see that we've been buying Tesla and names that mimic Bitcoin and other crypto assets like like Coinbase like Robin Hood taking advantage of this risk off period.

我們每天都會發布我們的交易，你會看到我們一直在買入特斯拉和模仿比特幣和其他加密資產的名字，比如幣安，就像羅賓漢一樣，利用這個風險關閉期。

So what does this mean in terms of where you think see things going.

那麼，你認為這意味著什麼？

Do you see more of a sell off before things get better in these risk assets.

在這些風險資產情況好轉之前，你認為會出現更多的拋售嗎？

Bitcoin or otherwise.

比特幣或其他。

How do you know that we're not at the lows.

你怎麼知道我們不是在谷底？

So one of the things we think is going on right now is and Treasury Secretary Besant today said he does not believe that we're going into a recession.

是以，我們認為目前正在發生的一件事是，財政部長貝桑特今天表示，他不認為我們會陷入衰退。

We think we've been in a rolling recession and that we are actually going to see some negative quarters here.

我們認為，我們已經陷入了滾動式衰退，實際上我們將看到一些消極的季度。

And that's because the velocity of money is collapsing as people.

這是因為人們的貨幣速度正在崩潰。

The labor force is worried that we're talking about federal state and local quasi government categories like education and health care.

勞動力擔心我們談論的是聯邦州和地方準政府類別，如教育和醫療保健。

There's a lot of fear around job security right now.

現在，人們對工作保障充滿恐懼。

So we see the saving rate going up.

是以，我們看到儲蓄率在上升。

We see the velocity of money coming down.

我們看到貨幣流通速度正在下降。

And we do think we'll see one or two negative quarters.

我們確實認為會有一兩個季度出現負增長。

What we believe that will do is set this administration up and the Fed up with more degrees of freedom for tax cuts and perhaps lower interest rates or at least ending quantitative tightening.

我們認為，這將為本屆政府和美聯儲減稅、降低利率或至少結束量化緊縮政策提供更大的自由度。

What do you see as the rate path for this year.

您認為今年的利率走勢如何？

The Federal Reserve kicking off its two day policy meeting today.

美聯儲今天開始為期兩天的政策會議。

We're going to hear from Jay Powell tomorrow.

明天我們將聽到傑伊-鮑威爾的發言。

How many rate cuts do you see happening this year.

您認為今年會有多少次降息？

Kathy.

凱西

Well we tend not to be very short term in our focus.

我們的關注點往往不是很短期。

But if we're right and inflation is going to surprise on the low side of expectations we wouldn't be surprised to see two or three cuts.

但如果我們的判斷是正確的，通脹率將出乎意料地低於預期，那麼出現兩到三次降息也不足為奇。

Now if you look at an indicator called true inflation it's probably the broadest measure of inflation out there.

現在，如果你看一個叫做真實通脹的指標，它可能是衡量通脹最廣泛的指標。

It is saying inflation is down to one point six five percent.

它說通貨膨脹率已降至 1.6%。

Well below where the Fed is pinning it at roughly the CPI is two point eight percent.

遠低於美聯儲所設定的大致 CPI 為百分之二點八的水準。

And we believe that the combination of actually food prices have started coming down.

我們相信，食品價格實際上已經開始回落。

Even egg prices have started to collapse as a matter of fact.

事實上，就連雞蛋價格也開始崩潰。

Gasoline prices are coming down.

汽油價格正在下降。

We're seeing some rent prices coming down.

我們看到一些房租價格正在下降。

So we think inflation is going to surprise on the low side of expectations for those reasons.

是以，我們認為，由於這些原因，通脹將出乎意料地偏低。

And because innovation is inherently deflationary and our five innovation platforms are all driving different kinds of deflation good deflation which will cause unit growth but deflation nonetheless.

因為創新本身就是通貨緊縮，而我們的五個創新平臺都在推動不同類型的通貨緊縮，好的通貨緊縮會導致組織、部門增長，但仍然是通貨緊縮。

So we think the Fed is going to have many more degrees of freedom in the second half of this year than most people think.

是以，我們認為美聯儲今年下半年的自由度將比大多數人想象的要大得多。

We could see more than the number I just suggested two to three.

我們可以看到比我剛才建議的兩到三個更多的數字。

That's a cat.

那是一隻貓。

Kathy you and I have spoken quite a bit over the last few months.

凱西，在過去的幾個月裡，你和我說過很多話。

You were optimistic about the Trump administration specifically with regard to disruptive technology in your thesis but also with cryptocurrency.

在您的論文中，您對特朗普政府特別是在顛覆性技術以及加密貨幣方面持樂觀態度。

You just spoke about the easing regulatory environment around crypto.

您剛才談到了加密貨幣監管環境的寬鬆。

I'm curious though what you think about President Trump's relationship with crypto.

不過我很好奇，你對特朗普總統與加密貨幣的關係有何看法。

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump family has held deal talks with finance following that guilty exchange plea.

據《華爾街日報》報道，特朗普家族在認罪交換後與金融公司進行了交易談判。

And then also you have the president getting into meme coins.

此外，總統也開始玩 "紀念幣 "了。

You have world liberty financial.

您擁有世界自由金融。

Are you at all concerned that that the Trump family is too close to crypto.

你是否擔心特朗普家族與加密貨幣走得太近？

Well I think the Trump family is very supportive of crypto which is which is great.

我認為特朗普家族非常支持加密貨幣，這很好。

It's completely different from the environment we have been in our view on meme coins.

這與我們對紀念幣的看法完全不同。

We are not as focused on them.

我們沒有那麼關注他們。

We would not be putting them into our our various private funds because and I think that you know the combination of A.I. and block chain technology is creating millions millions of these mean coins.

我們不會把它們投入到我們的各種私人基金中，因為我認為人工智能和區塊鏈技術的結合正在創造出數以百萬計的這種意義幣。

We think most of them are not going to be worth very much.

我們認為其中大部分都不值錢。

We think there are just going to be a few crypto assets that will gain most of the spoils in the entire ecosystem.

我們認為，在整個生態系統中，只有少數幾種加密資產會獲得最大的收益。

Kathy even some of the people who believe most firmly in the crypto story here they are still worried about those meme coins and a lot of retail investors being stuck holding the bag.

凱西甚至是一些最堅信加密貨幣故事的人，他們仍然擔心那些紀念幣和大量散戶投資者會被套牢。

And another thing that's happening at the same time is you have a lot of exchanges looking to loosen their listing standards.

同時發生的另一件事是，很多交易所都在尋求放寬上市標準。

Do you worry that this could go too far that too many coins that are going to hurt retail investors ultimately will be listed on too many exchanges.

你是否擔心這會走得太遠，太多會傷害散戶投資者的幣最終會在太多交易所上市。

Well I think that the FCC did a very important thing in declaring these meme coins not securities.

我認為，聯邦通信委員會做了一件非常重要的事情，那就是宣佈這些紀念幣不是證券。

What they essentially were saying is we are not going to regulate them and it's buyer beware.

他們的基本意思是，我們不會對他們進行監管，買者自負。

And so if I have one message or those listening who are buying meme coins buyer beware.

是以，我想告訴那些正在購買紀念幣的聽眾，買家要當心了。

And I think the message is loud and clear from the regulators.

我認為監管機構發出的資訊是響亮而明確的。

What we think will happen is there will be some fearsome declines in the prices of some of these meme assets.

我們認為會發生的情況是，其中一些 "備忘錄 "資產的價格會出現可怕的下跌。

And you know there's nothing like losing money for people to learn and they'll learn that the FCC and regulators are not taking responsibility for these meme coins.

你知道，沒有什麼比賠錢更能讓人們明白，聯邦通信委員會和監管機構並沒有為這些紀念幣承擔責任。

Buyer beware of what specifically.

買家要當心具體是什麼。

Because you did say that you believe that there are only certain crypto assets that will gain the most spoils.

因為你確實說過，你認為只有某些加密資產才能獲得最大的收益。

What do buyers need to be aware of.

買家需要注意什麼？

That the millions of meme coins will probably end up worthless.

數以百萬計的紀念幣最終可能一文不值。

So when we're talking about the big three we're talking about Bitcoin Ethereum Solana the use cases for those are multiplying.

是以，當我們談論三大巨頭時，我們談論的是比特幣、以太坊和索拉納，它們的用例正在成倍增加。

And we think they're going to become very important in the years ahead.

我們認為，它們在未來幾年將變得非常重要。

Meme coins not so.

紀念幣並非如此。

What about Trump's meme coin.

那特朗普的紀念幣呢？

Is that one of the ones that you think will become worthless.

這是不是你認為會變得一文不值的其中之一？

Kathy you know it's interesting.

凱西，你知道這很有趣。

Meme coins will be collectors items as so digital collectors items.

紀念幣將成為收藏品，就像數字收藏品一樣。

And so of course some will withstand you know will withstand the judgment of time.

當然，有些人會經受住時間的考驗。

And that may be one of them.

這可能就是其中之一。

But our working assumption is that when you're talking about millions of meme coins you know that that's just a step too far and that most most of them are not going to be worth very much.

但我們的工作假設是，當你在談論數以百萬計的 meme 硬幣時，你就會知道這只是一步之遙，而且其中大多數都不會很值錢。

Kathy I want to switch gears here a little bit and talk about something that I know you've been focusing on a lot tokenization.

凱西 我想轉換一下話題，談談我知道你一直在關注的代幣化問題。

Now one question I have about this is do you think the investment community particularly the venture community is underestimating how catastrophic this could be to their business model.

我想問的一個問題是，你認為投資界尤其是風險投資界是否低估了這對他們的商業模式可能造成的災難性影響。

If you have companies that can raise money through tokens rather than through traditional venture capital and go public this way or list this way rather than through the traditional listing process is that a sea of change coming for the way that this has typically been done.

如果有公司可以通過代幣而不是傳統的風險投資來籌集資金，並以這種方式上市或掛牌，而不是通過傳統的上市程序，這是否會對傳統的融資方式帶來巨大的變革？

I actually think it's very complicated.

事實上，我認為這很複雜。

But you know in terms of our own venture fund and we did start an interval fund which is a 40 act fund.

但你知道，就我們自己的風險基金而言，我們確實成立了一個間隔基金，這是一個 40 人的基金。

I mean we could see tokenizing that putting it on the blockchain and enabling many many more people to get involved with the private world.

我的意思是，我們可以將其代幣化，放在區塊鏈上，讓更多人参與到私人世界中來。

And I think other venture capital firms could do much of the same thing.

我認為其他風險投資公司也可以這樣做。

I do agree there's going to be a lot more competition a lot more ways to fund new companies.

我同意，未來的競爭會更加激烈，為新公司提供資金的方式也會更多。

So that is true as well.

所以這也是事實。

So I'd say this new world is going to be complicated.

是以，我認為這個新世界會變得很複雜。

You know when we hear Larry Fink of BlackRock saying he wants to tokenize everything you know it's big.

你知道，當我們聽到貝萊德的拉里-芬克（Larry Fink）說他想把一切都代幣化時，你就知道這是件大事。

It takes it takes a lot to move the needle at BlackRock.

在貝萊德，要想有所作為，需要付出很多努力。

So we're watching the tokenization movement very closely for our own for our own purposes as well.

是以，為了我們自己的目的，我們也在密切關注代幣化運動。

A little earlier you said that when you look at these dips you've been trying to take advantage of them particularly in part through Coinbase and Robin Hood.

你剛才說，當你看到這些跌勢時，你一直在試圖利用它們，特別是通過 Coinbase 和 Robin Hood。

I have a question about Robin Hood in particular.

我有一個關於羅賓漢的特別問題。

Do you think it looks more and more like Coinbase in the future.

你認為它未來會越來越像 Coinbase 嗎？

And to the extent that you're buying more of it is it on the thesis of expanded stock trading among retail investors for election betting or expanded crypto trading.

你購買更多的加密貨幣，是基於散戶投資者擴大股票交易以進行選舉投注的理論，還是基於加密貨幣交易擴大的理論？

What of those three things is your favorite thesis.

這三件事中，你最喜歡哪一件？

Well our main thesis for both is we're looking for the winners in the digital wallet space.

我們對兩者的主要論點是，我們正在尋找數字錢包領域的贏家。

Most of us are not going to have many wallets.

我們大多數人都不會有很多錢包。

You can think about this in the same way you think about credit cards.

您可以用看待信用卡的方式來看待這個問題。

Most of us don't have very many credit cards.

我們大多數人都沒有太多的信用卡。

So we're looking for those winners.

是以，我們正在尋找這些優勝者。

And you know Robin Hood and Coinbase are coming at this from different angles.

你也知道，羅賓漢和Coinbase從不同的角度來看待這個問題。

Of course Coinbase from the crypto first angle and Robin Hood from more of the equity end of the spectrum.

當然，Coinbase 首先從加密貨幣的角度出發，而 Robin Hood 則更多地從股權的角度出發。

Both of them have to.

他們都必須這樣做。

Robin Hood has nailed the user interface.

羅賓漢將用戶界面設計得恰到好處。

I think Coinbase has is putting a lot of effort into getting that right as well.

我認為，Coinbase 在這方面也付出了很多努力。

So we're looking at them as two of the bigger winners.

是以，我們將它們視為兩個最大的贏家。

Hey Kathy.

嘿，凱西

We're having a little trouble with China.

我們在中國遇到了點小麻煩。

I'm going to let our team I'm going to let our team work on that.

我會讓我們的團隊來解決這個問題。

In the meantime I do want to ask you a big picture question about crypto because I think for a lot of people they look at these tokens as stores of value as bets that they'll go up in the future and they'll be worth more and their portfolio will grow as a result.

同時，我想問你一個關於加密貨幣的全局性問題，因為我認為對很多人來說，他們把這些代幣看作是價值儲存，賭它們未來會上漲，它們會更值錢，他們的投資組合也會是以增長。

When do you see use cases for crypto maybe specifically Bitcoin actually affecting us in the real world.

你認為加密貨幣（尤其是比特幣）的使用案例何時才能真正影響我們的現實生活？

You spoke about tokenization just now.

你剛才談到了標記化。

But when will we see crypto being used as something else apart from just a store of value.

但是，我們什麼時候才能看到加密貨幣除了作為一種價值儲存手段外，還被用作其他用途呢？

Well I think what is happening with the stable coin movement which again that we're going to see deregulation and legislation this year we think which will open the doors to stable coins.

我認為穩定幣運動正在發生著什麼，我們將在今年看到放松管制和立法，我們認為這將為穩定幣敞開大門。

So USDC that circles USDT that's tethers.

所以 USDC 繞著 USDT 轉，USDT 就是繫繩。

That's the on ramp into into defy decentralized financial services.

這就是進入去中心化金融服務的匝道。

So you're already seeing lending and saving and yield harvesting taking place on these ecosystems which are supported by Ethereum and Solana.

是以，在以太坊和 Solana 支持的這些生態系統上，你已經看到了借貸、儲蓄和收益收穫。

And of course you're seeing wrapped Bitcoin on Ethereum as well.

當然，你也會看到以太坊上包裹著比特幣。

So market.

所以市場。

But you go to emerging markets where their currencies destroy purchasing power and wealth with massive D devaluation.

但你到新興市場去看看，那裡的貨幣通過大規模 D 貶值摧毀了購買力和財富。

So it's really their their their policy leaders.

是以，這確實是他們的他們的政策上司。

They are using Bitcoin in particular but also stable coins which is effectively the dollar as backstops to their purchasing power and wealth because they've been through too many of these devaluation.

他們特別使用比特幣，但也使用穩定幣（實際上就是美元）作為購買力和財富的後盾，因為他們已經經歷了太多次這樣的貶值。

So I think the real utility if you if you're looking at stable coins and Bitcoin today is in the emerging markets really protecting consumers purchasing power and wealth.

是以，我認為，如果你今天正在尋找穩定幣和比特幣，那麼真正的實用性是在新興市場，真正保護消費者的購買力和財富。

Kathy you have the great challenge of investing in innovative solutions at a time where the market is nervous and discounting the idea of putting more money to work in innovation at the moment.

凱西，你面臨著一個巨大的挑戰，那就是在市場緊張、不贊成將更多資金投入創新的時候，對創新解決方案進行投資。

And to the extent that you could choose one single biggest conviction bet that you would make right now.

如果你能選擇一個最大的信念賭注，你現在就會下注。

What is it and why.

它是什麼，為什麼？

Well we've been we have been known for our Tesla call and our Bitcoin call and those still stand as two of our biggest calls for sure.

我們一直以來都以特斯拉和比特幣而聞名，這兩項仍然是我們最大的兩項業務。

I would add in the A.I. age platform as a service companies like Palantir which are really enabling large enterprises to move into this A.I. age and enjoy the efficiencies the cost effectiveness and and to create new products and services.

在人工智能時代，我還要加上像Palantir這樣的平臺即服務公司，它們真正幫助大型企業進入人工智能時代，提高效率和成本效益，並創造新的產品和服務。

Those I think are going to be very big as well.

我認為這些也會非常重要。