Name: 埃隆-馬斯克：如何打造未來 (Elon Musk : How to Build the Future)
Uploaded: 2025-03-18T05:02:11.000Z
Duration: 19 min 33 s

So, we want to spend the time today talking about your view of the future and what people should work on.

所以，我們今天想花點時間談談你對未來的看法，以及人們應該努力的方向。

So, to start off, could you tell us, you famously said when you were younger there were five problems that you thought were most important for you to work on.

那麼，首先請您告訴我們，您年輕時曾說過，有五個問題是您認為最重要的。

If you were 22 today, what would the five problems that you would think about working on be?

如果你今天 22 歲，你會考慮解決的五個問題是什麼？

Well, first of all, I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that's a good thing.

首先，我認為如果有人在做對社會有用的事情，我認為這是一件好事。

Like, it doesn't have to change the world.

Like, you know, if you're doing something that has high value to people, and frankly, even if it's something, if it's like just a little game or, you know, some improvement in photo sharing or something, if it has a small amount of good for a large number of people, that's, I mean, I think that's fine.

比如，你知道，如果你做的事情對人們有很高的價值，坦率地說，即使它只是一個小遊戲，或者，你知道，照片分享的一些改進什麼的，如果它對很多人有少量的好處，我的意思是，我認為這很好。

Like, stuff doesn't need to change the world just to be good.

比如，東西不需要為了好而改變世界。

But, you know, in terms of things that I think are most likely to affect the future of humanity, I think AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect humanity.

但是，你知道，就我認為最有可能影響人類未來的事物而言，我認為人工智能可能是近期內最有可能影響人類的一個項目。

So it's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way.

是以，我們必須以良好的方式迎接人工智能的到來。

That is something that, if you could look at the crystal ball and see the future, you would like that outcome.

如果你能透過水晶球看到未來，你會希望看到這樣的結果。

Because it is something that could go wrong, as we've talked about many times.

因為這是有可能出錯的，我們已經說過很多次了。

And so we really need to make sure it goes right.

是以，我們必須確保一切順利。

That's, I think, AI, working on AI and making sure it's a great future.

我認為，這就是人工智能，研究人工智能，確保它有一個美好的未來。

That's the most important thing, I think, right now.

我認為，這是目前最重要的事情。

Then, obviously, anything to do with genetics.

那麼，很顯然，任何事情都與遺傳有關。

If you can actually solve genetic diseases, if you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's or something like that, with genetic reprogramming, that would be wonderful.

如果你能真正解決遺傳疾病，如果你能通過基因重編程預防痴呆症或阿爾茨海默氏症或類似的疾病，那將會非常美妙。

So I think genetics might be the sort of second most important item.

是以，我認為遺傳學可能是第二重要的項目。

I think having a high bandwidth interface to the brain.

我認為，擁有一個高帶寬的大腦接口。

We have a digital tertiary self in the form of our email capabilities, like computers, phones, applications.

我們有一個數字化的第三自我，即我們的電子郵件功能，如電腦、手機和應用程序。

But we're extremely bandwidth constrained in that interface between the cortex and that tertiary digital form of yourself.

但是，在大腦皮層和自己的三級數字形式之間的接口上，我們的帶寬非常有限。

And helping solve that bandwidth constraint would be, I think, very important for the future as well.

我認為，幫助解決帶寬限制問題對未來也非常重要。

So one of the, I think, most common questions I hear ambitious young people ask is, I want to be the next Elon Musk.

是以，我認為，我聽到雄心勃勃的年輕人最常問的一個問題就是：我想成為下一個埃隆-馬斯克。

Obviously, the next Elon Musk will work on very different things than you did.

顯然，下一個埃隆-馬斯克所從事的工作將與你截然不同。

But what have you done or what did you do when you were younger that you think sort of set you up to have a big impact?

但是，你年輕時做過什麼或做過什麼，讓你覺得這為你產生巨大影響奠定了基礎？

Well, I think, first of all, I should say that I did not expect to be involved in all these things.

嗯，我想，首先，我應該說，我沒想到會參與到這些事情中來。

So the five things that I thought about at the time in college, quite a long time ago, 25 years ago, you know, making life multi-planetary, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, the internet, broadly speaking, and then genetics and AI.

所以，我在大學的時候，也就是很久以前，25 年前，就想過這五件事，你知道，讓生活多行星化、加速向可持續能源過渡、廣義上的互聯網，然後是遺傳學和人工智能。

I think I didn't expect to be involved in all of those things.

我想我沒想到自己會參與所有這些事情。

Actually, at the time in college, I sort of thought helping with electrification of cars was how I would start out.

事實上，在大學的時候，我就覺得幫助汽車電氣化是我的起點。

And that's actually what I worked on as an intern was advanced ultracapacitors to see if there would be a breakthrough relative to batteries for energy storage in cars.

實際上，我在實習期間研究的就是先進的超級電容器，看看在汽車儲能方面是否會有相對於電池的突破。

And then when I came out to go to Stanford, that's what I was going to be doing my grad studies on was working on advanced energy storage technologies for electric cars.

後來我去斯坦福大學讀研究所學生，研究的就是電動汽車的先進儲能技術。

And then I put that on hold to start an internet company in 95 because there does seem to be like a time for particular technologies when they're at a steep point in the inflection curve.

後來，我擱置了這一計劃，並於 95 年創辦了一家互聯網公司，因為對於特定的技術來說，似乎總有一個時間點處於拐點曲線的陡峭點上。

And I didn't want to do a PhD at Stanford and watch it all happen.

我不想在斯坦福大學讀博士，眼睜睜地看著這一切發生。

And I wasn't entirely certain that the technology I'd be working on would actually succeed.

而且我也不完全確定我所研究的技術是否真的會成功。

You can get a doctorate on many things that ultimately do not have a practical bearing on the world.

你可以在許多最終對世界沒有實際影響的領域獲得博士學位。

And I really was just trying to be useful.

What can I do that would actually be useful?

我能做些什麼真正有用的事情呢？

Do you think people that want to be useful today should get PhDs?

你認為今天想成為有用之才的人應該獲得博士學位嗎？

那麼，怎樣才能成為有用的人呢？

How should someone figure out how they can be most useful?

一個人應該如何找出自己最有用的方式？

Whatever this thing is that you're trying to create, what would be the utility delta compared to the current state-of-the-art times how many people it would affect?

不管你想創造的是什麼，與目前最先進的技術相比，它的效用Δ乘以會影響多少人？

So that's why I think having something that makes a big difference but affects a small to moderate number of people is great, as is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people.

是以，我認為，能帶來巨大變化但隻影響少數人的東西是好東西，能帶來微小變化但影響眾多人的東西也是好東西。

Like the area under the curve would actually be roughly similar for those two things.

就像這兩件事的曲線下面積實際上大致相似。

So it's actually really about just trying to be useful.

是以，這其實就是努力成為一個有用的人。

When you're trying to estimate probability of success, so you say this thing will be really useful, good area under the curve, I guess to use the example of SpaceX, when you made the go decision that you were actually going to do that, this was kind of a very crazy thing at the time.

當你試圖估算成功的概率時，你會說這東西真的很有用，曲線下的面積很好，我想以 SpaceX 公司為例，當你做出決定要做這件事時，這在當時是一件非常瘋狂的事情。

我不確定我是否有這樣的說法。

But I kind of agreed with them that it was quite crazy.

但我有點同意他們的看法，認為這太瘋狂了。

Crazy if the objective was to achieve the best risk-adjusted return, starting a rocket company is insane.

如果目標是獲得風險調整後的最佳收益，那麼創辦火箭公司就是瘋狂的。

I'd simply come to the conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rocket technology, we'd be stuck on Earth forever.

我得出的結論是，如果火箭技術得不到改進，我們就會永遠被困在地球上。

And the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation.

而大型航空航天公司對激進創新毫無興趣。

All they wanted to do was try to make their old technology slightly better every year.

他們所想做的，就是努力讓自己的舊技術每年都略有進步。

And in fact, sometimes it would actually get worse.

事實上，有時情況會變得更糟。

And particularly in rockets, it's pretty bad.

特別是在火箭方面，情況相當糟糕。

In 69, we were able to go to the moon with a Saturn V.

69 年，我們用土星五號登上了月球。

And then the space shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

然後，航天飛機只能把人帶到低地球軌道。

I mean, that trend is basically trends to zero.

我的意思是，這種趨勢基本上是歸零的趨勢。

People sometimes think technology just automatically gets better every year.

人們有時會認為，技術每年都會自動變得更好。

It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better.

只有聰明人瘋狂工作，才能讓它變得更好。

That's how any technology actually gets better.

任何技術都是這樣不斷完善的。

And by itself, technology, if people don't work on it, actually will decline.

而就技術本身而言，如果人們不為之努力，它實際上就會衰落。

I mean, you can look at the history of civilizations, many civilizations, and look at, say, ancient Egypt where they were able to build these incredible pyramids.

我的意思是，你可以看看文明史，許多文明的歷史，比如說，看看古埃及，他們能夠建造這些令人難以置信的金字塔。

And then they basically forgot how to build pyramids.

後來，他們基本上忘記了如何建造金字塔。

他們忘記了如何閱讀象形文字。

So we look at Rome and how they were able to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing.

是以，我們來看看羅馬，看看他們是如何建造出這些令人難以置信的道路、水渠和室內管道的。

And they forgot how to do all of those things.

And there are many such examples in history.

So I think we should always bear in mind that entropy is not on your side.

是以，我認為我們應該時刻牢記，熵並不站在你這一邊。

One thing I really like about you is you are unusually fearless and willing to go in the face of other people telling you something is crazy.

我很喜歡你的一點是，你異常無畏，面對別人說你瘋了，你也願意去做。

Or how do you think about making a decision when everyone tells you this is a crazy idea?

或者，當所有人都告訴你這是個瘋狂的想法時，你該如何考慮做出決定？

Or where do you get the internal strength to do that?

或者，你從哪裡獲得這樣做的內在力量？

Well, first of all, I'd say I actually think I feel fear quite strongly.

首先，我想說的是，其實我覺得我的恐懼感相當強烈。

So it's not as though I just have the absence of fear.

But there are times when something is important enough, you believe in it enough, that you do it in spite of the fear.

但有時，如果一件事足夠重要，你足夠相信它，你就會不顧恐懼去做。

People shouldn't think, well, I feel fear about this and therefore I shouldn't do it.

人們不應該認為，我對此感到恐懼，所以我不應該這樣做。

You'd have to do something mentally wrong if you didn't feel fear.

如果你感覺不到恐懼，那你一定是精神出了問題。

So you just feel it and let the importance of it drive you to do it anyway?

所以你只是感覺到它的重要性，讓它驅使你去做嗎？

Actually, something that can be helpful is fatalism to some degree.

其實，宿命論在某種程度上也是有幫助的。

If you just accept the probabilities, then that diminishes fear.

如果你能接受這種可能性，那麼恐懼就會減少。

So when starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%.

是以，在創辦 SpaceX 時，我認為成功的機率不到 10%。

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埃隆-馬斯克：如何打造未來 (Elon Musk : How to Build the Future)

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