Name: 人工智能會讓我們成為最後一代讀寫者嗎？| 維克多-裡帕貝利 | TED (Will AI Make Us the Last Generation to Read and Write? | Victor Riparbelli | TED)
Uploaded: 2025-03-07T09:53:14.000Z
Duration: 16 min 24 s

未來簡單式

Transcription sponsored by RenaissanceRe Your grandchildren will be the last generation to read and write.

轉錄由 RenaissanceRe 贊助 您的孫輩將是最後一代識字的人。

I know that sounds strange, almost unthinkable.

我知道這聽起來很奇怪，幾乎不可想象。

We use it hundreds of times every single day.

And it's growing into the fabric of our daily lives.

它正逐漸融入我們的日常生活。

But today, I'm going to make the case that humanity's relentless pursuit of better ways to convey ideas and preserve knowledge doesn't end with text.

但今天，我要說明的是，人類對傳達思想和保存知識的更好方式的不懈追求，並沒有止步於文字。

I think we're at the dawn of a new era of AI-enabled communication.

我認為，我們正處於人工智能通信新時代的黎明。

And I think that future generations will slowly replace text with more intuitive forms of communication like audio, video, and eventually immersive technologies.

我認為，未來幾代人將慢慢用音頻、視頻等更直觀的交流方式取代文字，最終實現身臨其境的技術。

And one day, I think we'll look back at reading and writing as historical artifacts, like we do with papyrus scrolls or hieroglyphs or cave paintings.

有一天，我想我們會像對待紙莎草紙卷軸、象形文字或洞穴壁畫一樣，將閱讀和寫作視為歷史文物。

This is not a personal vendetta against text.

Some of my fondest memories is walking around to my local library back in Copenhagen, that you see behind me here, picking out all kinds of books, mostly science fiction books, returning home to read them, so I could go back there again and pick out the next set of exciting books to read.

在我最美好的記憶中，我曾在哥本哈根當地的圖書館（就在我身後）走來走去，挑選各種書籍，其中大部分是科幻小說，然後回家閱讀，這樣我就可以再次回到那裡，挑選下一套令人興奮的書籍來閱讀。

I love disappearing into these worlds that were different than the physical world around me.

我喜歡消失在這些不同於我周圍物質世界的世界裡。

And that, of course, only was amplified when I discovered the Internet at around 10 years old, which opened up an entirely new world of ideas, of music, and people.

當然，這只是在我 10 歲左右發現互聯網時才被放大的，互聯網為我打開了一個全新的思想、音樂和人的世界。

The Internet information was free, and I saw firsthand how technology didn't just change the distribution of content, it changed the content in itself.

互聯網資訊是免費的，我親眼看到技術不僅改變了內容的傳播，還改變了內容本身。

The difference between a lively forum and a book is massive, right?

熱鬧的論壇和一本書之間的差別很大，不是嗎？

In music, which is my big passion outside of work, I saw how software instruments and sampling and drum machines gave birth to entirely new genres that had never been possible before.

音樂是我工作之外的最大愛好，我看到軟件樂器、採樣和鼓機是如何催生出前所未有的全新流派。

Not only that, but all the people around the world making new, exciting music could share it with the world without the middlemen of labels.

不僅如此，全世界所有創作出令人激動的新音樂的人都可以在沒有唱片公司中間人的情況下與全世界分享這些音樂。

The video games I played got connected to the Internet.

我玩的視頻遊戲都能連接到互聯網。

You formed communities with people around the world that you didn't know.

你與世界各地你不認識的人組成了社區。

That's what my parents thought, at least.

I started my first business when I was 13 years old in World of Warcraft.

我 13 歲時在《魔獸世界》中開始了我的第一筆生意。

We were 50 people slaying dragons together online.

And I would later learn in life that it's actually not that different than running a startup.

後來我才知道，這其實和經營一家初創公司沒什麼區別。

And those early years of my life sparked a lifelong interest in media and technology, how they change the way that we create, consume, play, and communicate.

早年的經歷激發了我對媒體和技術的終生興趣，以及它們如何改變我們創造、消費、娛樂和交流的方式。

And in 2016, I discovered a research paper called Face to Face by Professor Matthias Niesner and his team.

2016年，我發現了馬蒂亞斯-尼斯納教授和他的團隊撰寫的一篇名為《面對面》的研究論文。

They built a system that using neural networks could produce really, really photorealistic video.

他們建立了一個系統，利用神經網絡可以製作出非常逼真的視頻。

And when I saw this for the first time, I felt like I'd seen magic.

當我第一次看到它時，我感覺自己就像看到了魔法。

And I was convinced that in 10 years, you're going to be able to create a Hollywood film from your bedroom without needing anything else than just your imagination.

我深信，10 年後，你在臥室裡就能創作出一部好萊塢電影，不需要其他任何東西，只需要你的想象力。

That's in three years, and I think that's actually going to hold up.

那是三年後的事了，我認為這還會持續下去。

I couldn't get this idea out of my mind, and eventually I ended up founding Synthesia, an AI video company, along with Matthias and Lourdes and Stefan, my co-founders.

這個想法一直在我腦海中揮之不去，最終我和我的聯合創始人馬蒂亞斯、盧爾德和斯特凡一起創辦了人工智能視頻公司 Synthesia。

And this really was a way to kind of marry my interest in media and technology and sci-fi.

這確實是一種將我對媒體、技術和科幻的興趣結合起來的方式。

We started the company with the vision of making everyone in the world into a Hollywood director.

我們創辦公司的願景是讓世界上每個人都成為好萊塢導演。

And while that's definitely still a very exciting vision, as the years kind of went on, we realized that as exciting as AI-generated Hollywood films is, it's only the tip of the iceberg.

雖然這肯定還是一個非常令人興奮的願景，但隨著時間的推移，我們意識到，人工智能生成的好萊塢電影雖然令人興奮，但這只是冰山一角。

The really exciting potential about these technologies is that they're going to enable every single piece of content from text messages to novels to boring corporate training materials to be brought alive in video and audio.

這些技術真正令人興奮的潛力在於，它們將使從簡訊、小說到枯燥的企業培訓材料等所有內容都能通過視頻和音頻變得生動起來。

But before we talk more about video, let's talk about text.

不過，在進一步討論視頻之前，我們先來談談文字。

Text is the original way of compression for human communication.

文字是人類交流的原始壓縮方式。

We encode our thoughts and knowledge into symbols that can convey meaning across time and space.

我們將思想和知識編碼成符號，這些符號可以跨越時間和空間傳遞意義。

Thousands of years ago, text didn't exist, and the only way we had to share information was orally.

幾千年前，文字還不存在，我們分享資訊的唯一方式就是口頭交流。

In 1500 before Christ, the first alphabet was invented, and it essentially took these very complex writing systems and simplified them into just a few characters laying the groundwork for the modern society that we know today.

公元前 1500 年，人類發明了第一個字母表，它將這些非常複雜的書寫系統簡化為幾個字元，為我們今天所熟知的現代社會奠定了基礎。

In 1440, Gutenberg invented the printing press, and for the first time in history, we could mass-produce written content.

1440 年，古騰堡發明了印刷機，我們有史以來第一次可以批量生產書面內容。

It would take until the mid-20th century before reading became something for the masses and people slowly became literate.

直到 20 世紀中期，閱讀才成為大眾的事情，人們才慢慢識字。

If we fast-forward to today, text is ubiquitous, and it's impossible to live a life without being able to read and write.

快進到今天，文字無處不在，不識字就無法生活。

But as great as text is, it's an imperfect technology.

不過，文字雖好，卻是一種不完美的技術。

It's very efficient, and it's very scalable.

它非常高效，可擴展性也很強。

But it's a very, very lossy method of compressing information.

但這是一種非常、非常有損的信息壓縮方法。

It lacks all the nuance and additional information that we get when we speak to someone in real life.

它缺乏我們在現實生活中與人交談時獲得的所有細微差別和額外資訊。

Your tone of voice, your body language, where you are, all those things matter for that message, right?

你的語氣、你的肢體語言、你所在的位置，所有這些對資訊的傳遞都很重要，對嗎？

Text can be interpreted a million different ways depending on the receiver.

根據接收者的不同，文字可以有無數種不同的解釋。

But we invented emojis to make it a little bit better.

但我們發明了表情符號，讓它變得更好看一點。

但即使是表情符號也並非完美無缺。

People are still debating if this smiley is happy, is it pissed, is it planning to kill you, the debate goes on.

人們還在爭論這個笑臉是否開心，是否生氣，是否打算殺了你，爭論還在繼續。

And if you think about visual communication, this is an image.

如果考慮到視覺傳播，這就是一幅影像。

It took all of you a few seconds to look at this image and understand it, right?

你們都花了幾秒鐘才看懂這幅圖，對嗎？

It's a very intuitive way of consuming information.

這是一種非常直觀的資訊消費方式。

What if I shared this with you instead, a text description of the image?

如果我用圖片的文字描述來代替這個，會怎麼樣呢？

Would it have taken you 30 seconds to read it?

The high cognitive load to take those pieces of symbols and turn them into an image in your mind, right?

將這些符號片段轉化為腦海中的影像，這需要很高的認知負荷，對嗎？

And even if I gave you 30 pages of description, you would always imagine a different image than what you are seeing behind me right now.

即使我給你 30 頁的描述，你也總會想象出一個與你現在在我身後看到的不同的畫面。

Once we add a time dimension, as in video, this problem massively compounds.

一旦我們添加了時間維度，比如視頻，這個問題就會大大加劇。

So it's not that strange that since the invention of text, we've been innovating towards richer and more intuitive ways of exchanging information.

是以，自文字發明以來，我們一直在創新，以更豐富、更直觀的方式交流信息，這並不奇怪。

We invented radio, TV, internet, VR, social media, and now AI.

我們發明了廣播、電視、互聯網、VR、社交媒體，現在又發明了人工智能。

In 2024, it's very obvious that people want to watch and listen.

2024 年，人們想要觀看和聆聽的願望非常明顯。

If you look at the digital economy, TikTok is the fastest-growing social network.

縱觀數字經濟，TikTok 是發展最快的社交網絡。

It's also the fastest-growing search engine, which is very interesting.

它也是增長最快的搜索引擎，這一點非常有趣。

Video and audio is everywhere in the apps that we use.

在我們使用的應用程序中，視頻和音頻無處不在。

我們在 WhatsApp 上發送語音筆記。

購物時，我們會觀看產品視頻。

And my thesis is that the more we consume video, the more bored we are by text.

我的論點是，我們對視頻的消費越多，我們對文字就越厭煩。

And I have to say, this is also true for me, even though I love reading.

我不得不說，這對我來說也是如此，儘管我熱愛閱讀。

When I want to learn something new, I usually start on YouTube, on TikTok, listen to a podcast.

當我想學習新知識時，我通常會從 YouTube、TikTok 或聽播客開始。

And only if I'm really, really invested in something, I'll take the hours out of my day to read a 200-page book.

只有當我真的對某件事情非常投入時，我才會抽出時間讀一本 200 頁的書。

It just doesn't feel that much like it's worth it anymore.

And for a lot of you, you probably feel the same.

你們中的很多人可能也有同樣的感受。

Do you want to learn music theory from a long book or from a video on YouTube that has audio?

您是想從一本長長的書中學習樂理知識，還是想從 YouTube 上有音頻的視頻中學習樂理知識？

Do you want to listen to the news on a podcast on the way to work or fold out this physical piece of paper somewhere?

您是想在上班途中通過播客收聽新聞，還是想把這張紙摺疊起來放在某個地方？

I feel guilty when I watch videos and when I listen to podcasts instead of picking up a good old-fashioned book.

當我看視頻、聽播客而不是拿起一本老式的好書時，我感到內疚。

When you hear the commentary on this, young people are unable to focus anymore.

當你聽到這方面的評論時，年輕人已經無法集中注意力了。

They need constant dopamine hits from cheap content that they scroll through on their social media apps.

他們需要從社交媒體應用程序上滾動瀏覽的廉價內容中不斷獲得多巴胺刺激。

They don't get outside their room anymore.

Exactly the same thing parents have been saying for 200 years.

這正是家長們 200 年來一直在說的話。

What if we're all just tired of overly dense, slow information?

如果我們只是厭倦了過於密集、緩慢的資訊呢？

What if we become much more sensitive to the quality and the conciseness of the content that we consume because we now have infinite choice?

如果因為我們現在有了無限的選擇，我們對所消費內容的品質和簡潔性變得更加敏感，那該怎麼辦？

What if the current generation of kids are able to learn and absorb information much faster because of technology, not despite it?

如果這一代孩子能夠更快地學習和吸收資訊，是因為有了技術，而不是儘管有了技術，那該怎麼辦？

Is the problem us, or is the problem text?

問題出在我們身上，還是出在文本上？

We just read from many different sources every single day, not just a book and a newspaper.

我們只是每天從不同的管道閱讀，而不僅僅是一本書和一份報紙。

We read our messaging apps and our social media networks and our blog.

我們閱讀資訊應用程序、社交媒體網絡和博客。