Opposition forces are trying to overthrow the military, which has been in power for decades, and it looks like they may have the edge.

反對派武裝正試圖推翻掌權數十年的軍方，而且看起來他們可能佔據優勢。

All kinds of people have joined the fight, from established armed groups, to students and activists who want democracy.

各種類型的人都加入了這場戰鬥，有已建立的武裝團體，也有希望實現民主的學生和活動家。

The military, if you like, is on the rise.

要說的話，軍隊正在崛起。

It is losing significant land, civilian territories.

它正在失去大片土地和平民領土。

Myanmar is now at the verge of state failure.

緬甸現在正處於國家崩潰的邊緣。

Millions of people have already been displaced.

數百萬人已經流離失所。

There are now warnings of famine and reports of all sorts of atrocities being committed.

現在有饑荒的警告和各種暴行的報道。

So what's behind the fighting?

那麼，戰爭的背後是什麼呢？

And could the military regime really be about to fall?

軍事政權真的會倒臺嗎？

Myanmar, which used to be called Burma, is in Southeast Asia, sandwiched between all these countries.

緬甸曾被稱為 Burma，位於東南亞，夾在所有這些國家之間。

And to understand what's going on there now, we need a quick backstory.

要了解那裡現在的情況，我們需要了解一下背景故事。

For decades, a repressive military regime has been in charge, ruling over a very diverse country made up of more than 100 ethnic groups.

幾十年來，鎮壓性的軍事政權一直掌權，統治著這個由 100 多個民族組成的多元化國家。

Myanmar was heavily sanctioned and isolated from the world.

緬甸受到嚴厲制裁，與世隔絕。

It was seen as a kind of pariah state.

它被視為一種賤民國家。

But from about 2011, things started shifting and led to a period that some people call Myanmar's experiment with democracy.

但大約從 2011 年起，情況開始發生變化，並進入了一個有人稱之為緬甸民主試驗的時期。

The ruling generals agreed to share power with a civilian government.

執政的將軍們同意與文職政府分享權力。

There were elections in 2015, and a party called the National League for Democracy, or NLD, won.

2015 年舉行了選舉，一個名為全國民主聯盟（NLD）的政黨贏得了選舉。

It was led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who'd been the face of the opposition for decades and had spent almost 15 years under house arrest.

它由翁山蘇姬領導，幾十年來，翁山蘇姬一直是反對派的代言人，並被軟禁了近 15 年。

In 2020, the NLD won again, by a landslide.

2020 年，全國民主聯盟再次以壓倒性優勢獲勝。

But the military disputed the result.

但軍方對這一結果提出異議。

They staged a coup to take back power.

他們發動政變，奪回了政權。

Aung San Suu Kyi was detained and then sent to prison, although it's not clear where she's being held right now.

翁山蘇姬被拘留後又被送進監獄，但目前尚不清楚她被關押在哪裡。

What came next led to a full-scale civil war that is still going on.

隨後，一場全面內戰爆發，至今仍在繼續。

Myanmar! Myanmar!

緬甸！緬甸！

Myanmar's 10-year journey to democracy appears to be over.

緬甸 10 年的民主之路似乎已經結束。

The military takeover has sparked the biggest demonstrations seen in Myanmar in more than a decade.

軍方接管引發了緬甸十多年來最大規模的示威遊行。

A stark warning from the UN Special Envoy on Myanmar: "a bloodbath is imminent."

聯合國緬甸問題特使發出嚴厲警告。一場大屠殺迫在眉睫。

Security forces shot more than 100 people dead.

安全部隊槍殺了 100 多人。

Peaceful demonstrations were responded to with massive violence by the military.

和平示威遭到軍方大規模暴力鎮壓。

This violence made them even more determined to get the military out of politics.

這種暴力讓他們更加堅定了讓軍隊退出政治的決心。

The people of Myanmar were not prepared to turn back the clock.

緬甸人民不願意時光倒流。

Since then, the people have built up their armed resistance to the military, and the situation now in Myanmar is unprecedented.

從那時起，人民就開始了對軍隊的武裝反抗，緬甸現在的局勢是前所未有的。

After four years of fighting, the map of Myanmar now looks like this.

經過四年的戰鬥，緬甸的地圖現在變成了這樣。

The military regime has lost a lot of territory, especially in the last year.

軍政權失去了很多領土，尤其是在去年。

It now only has full control of 21% of the country, according to a BBC investigation.

根據英國廣播公司的調查，它現在只完全控制了該國 21% 的領土。

But that includes the capital, Naypyidaw, and other big cities.

但這包括首都內比都和其他大城市。

The rest is controlled by a range of different anti-military groups.

其餘部分則由一系列不同的反軍事組織控制。

You can see there are lots of them, but they roughly fall into two main categories.

你可以看到，它們有很多，但大致可分為兩大類。

We've got the ethnic armed organizations.

我們有少數民族武裝組織。

These are groups that represent different ethnic minorities, and they've been fighting against the military for more rights, autonomy, even independence, for a long time.

這些團體代表著不同的少數民族，他們長期以來一直在與軍方對抗，爭取更多的權利、自治權，甚至獨立。

These wars go back 60 years.

這些戰爭可以追溯到 60 年前。

It's nothing new.

這不是什麼新鮮事。

There have been periods of greater or lesser violence in these wars, but they have been continuous since the military became the dominant power in Myanmar in 1962.

在這些戰爭中，暴力程度或大或小，但自 1962 年軍方成為緬甸的主導力量以來，這些戰爭一直持續不斷。

Every minority in Burma has their own stories to tell you how much they have suffered.

緬甸的每個少數民族都有自己的故事，告訴你他們遭受了多少苦難。

So that is the main driving force for these minorities.

這就是這些少數民族的主要驅動力。

They feel that we must protect ourselves.

他們認為我們必須保護自己。

As well as the ethnic armed groups, the other main category on the anti-military side are the resistance groups that emerged in response to the 2021 coup, when many of the protesters decided to pick up weapons with the goal of ending military rule and restoring democracy.

除少數民族武裝團體外，反軍方的另一個主要類別是 2021 年政變後出現的抵抗組織，當時許多抗議者決定拿起武器，目的是結束軍事統治，恢復民主。

You had all sorts of volunteers joining the fight.

有各種各樣的志願者加入戰鬥。

Students, lawyers, medics, and a lot of them have been trained by those ethnic armed groups in secret jungle camps.

學生、律師、醫護人員，他們中的很多人都曾在祕密叢林營地接受過這些少數民族武裝團體的訓練。

And over time, they've become a more effective and better equipped fighting force.

隨著時間的推移，他們已成為一支更有效、裝備更精良的戰鬥部隊。

A lot of Myanmar citizens, they've been donating money to the resistance movement.

很多緬甸公民都在為抵抗運動捐款。

Eventually, they grow exponentially.

最終，它們成倍增長。

One of the things that's made a huge difference in the last six months is weapons.

在過去的六個月裡，武器是帶來巨大變化的因素之一。

The pro-democracy forces have seized from military bases they've overrun.

民主力量佔領了軍事基地。

The main resistance group are the People's Defense Forces, or PDF.

主要抵抗組織是人民保衛部隊，簡稱民防軍。

These are the areas they control.

這些是他們控制的區域。

The PDF are essentially the boots on the ground for a rival opposition government that was set up after the coup, called the National Unity Government.

人民保衛部隊基本上是政變後成立的名為民族團結政府的敵對反對派政府的地面部隊。

Now, while the PDF have been pretty effective, it's really the ethnic groups that have been making the difference.

現在，雖然 PDF 已經相當有效，但真正起作用的是少數民族群體。

Much as the NUG would like to claim this military success of the resistance of its own, what's happening on the battlefield in Myanmar is primarily being driven by the ethnic armed groups.

儘管民族團結政府想宣稱自己的抵抗運動取得了軍事上的成功，但緬甸戰場上發生的一切主要是由少數民族武裝團體推動的。

For example, one group, known as the Arakan Army, is now in full control of the border with Bangladesh after pushing the military out.

例如，一個名為 "若開軍"（Arakan Army）的組織在趕走軍方之後，現在完全控制了與孟加拉國的邊界。

In this video, you can see soldiers waving white flags and surrendering.

在這部影片中，你可以看到士兵們揮舞著白旗投降。

There are lots of reports of how the military have been struggling to get enough people to fight for them.

有很多報導稱，軍方一直在努力爭取足夠的人為他們而戰。

There is a massive number of surrenders to the People's Revolution side.

向人民革命方面投降的人數眾多。

We know that morale is very low.

我們知道士氣非常低落。

They have introduced conscription and are literally kidnapping young men to fight in the military.

他們實行徵兵制，綁架年輕人参軍。

Sending them to the front lines, using them as a human shield.

把他們送上前線，把他們當作人肉盾牌。

This is the biggest crime going on in Burma.

這是緬甸最大的犯罪。

So you've got this situation where the military, which used to be all-powerful, is really under pressure.

在這種情況下，曾經無所不能的軍方確實受到了壓力。

Could the regime actually fall, though?

但這個政權真的會垮臺嗎？

Well, plenty of people are predicting that it's only a matter of time.

很多人都預測，這只是時間問題。

This illegal coup attacked by the military, now we can say for sure it has failed.

這次由軍方發起的非法政變，現在我們可以肯定地說已經失敗了。

One of the very reasons is because of the very unwavering determination and resistance, resilience of the Myanmar people.

原因之一就在於緬甸人民堅定不移的決心和頑強的抵抗力。

Especially the young generations are absolutely resolute in their fight to end this military oppression once and for all.

特別是年輕一代，他們為徹底結束這種軍事壓迫而進行的鬥爭是絕對堅決的。

We should not be surprised if sudden and dramatic change comes to Myanmar.

如果緬甸突然發生鉅變，我們不應感到驚訝。

Maybe I wouldn't predict it, but we shouldn't be surprised when it happens or if it happens.

也許我不會預測它的發生，但當它發生或如果發生時，我們不應該感到驚訝。

A lot would still need to happen for the regime to finally go.

要讓這個政權最終消失，還需要發生很多事情。

One big advantage the military has is air power.

軍隊的一大優勢是制空權。

And it uses these weapons brutally and basically adopts a scorched earth policy to seek to obliterate the villages, towns and even cities that it has lost in the fighting on the ground.

它野蠻地使用這些武器，基本上採取焦土政策，試圖摧毀它在實地戰鬥中失去的村莊、城鎮甚至城市。

The military also still controls the major cities.

軍方也仍然控制著主要城市。

The PDF and ethnic groups would have to stage a pretty major offensive to take those cities.

民防軍和少數民族必鬚髮動大規模攻勢才能拿下這些城市。

But there are big questions about whether they're all united enough to make that happen.

但是，他們是否團結一致，足以實現這一目標，還存在很大的疑問。

Keep in mind, the ethnic armed groups are more focused on achieving autonomy in their own regions.

請記住，少數民族武裝團體更注重實現本地區的自治。

Some are even fighting each other.

有些人甚至在互相爭鬥。

The ethnic armed groups do understand that if this current military is left in power, in the center, they will never be at peace.

少數民族武裝團體確實明白，如果讓目前這支軍隊在中央掌權，他們將永無寧日。

But whether that translates into a willingness to expend enormous resources and lose a huge number of lives by marching on the central cities, that's another question in time.

但是，這是否會轉化為向中心城市進軍所耗費的巨大資源和大量生命損失的意願，那就是另一個有待時間檢驗的問題了。

So what about pressure from other countries that could shift the balance of power?

那麼，來自其他國家的壓力會改變力量平衡嗎？

Well, just as Myanmar isn't really in the news much, there's not a great deal of diplomatic attention focused on it either.

就像緬甸的新聞並不多一樣，外交界對緬甸的關注也不多。

The main player here is China.

這裡的主要參與者是中國。

But Beijing seems to be hedging its bets.

但是，中國政府似乎在進行對沖。

China is the only country that has been putting significant effort to address the issue.

中國是唯一一個一直在大力解決這一問題的國家。

But on the other hand, that was mainly for protecting its own interests rather than resolving the issue in Myanmar.

但另一方面，這主要是為了保護自己的利益，而不是解決緬甸的問題。

China traditionally has tried to play all sides.

中國曆來試圖玩弄各方。

It has been a supporter and armor of the military, but it's also armed most of the ethnic groups, directly and indirectly.

它一直是軍隊的支持者和裝甲部隊，但也直接或間接地武裝了大多數少數民族。

I think China's major concern is to ensure that whoever wins the war in Myanmar, China is on their side.

我認為，中國的主要關切是確保無論誰在緬甸戰爭中獲勝，中國都站在他們一邊。

And while the world's attention is elsewhere, the people of Myanmar are suffering a desperate humanitarian and human rights crisis.

當全世界的注意力都集中在別處時，緬甸人民正在遭受一場絕望的人道主義和人權危機。

It's getting worse.

情況越來越糟。

Parts of Myanmar are cut off with no internet, so it's hard to get information out.

緬甸部分地區沒有互聯網，是以很難獲得資訊。

But there are reports of atrocities being committed by both the military and some of the armed groups.

但有報告稱，軍方和一些武裝團體都犯下了暴行。

In Rakhine State, for example, civilians from an ethnic minority called the Rohingya are reportedly being killed and displaced by the military and the Arakan army, which is the main ethnic armed group there.

例如，據報導，在若開邦，被稱為羅辛亞族的少數民族平民遭到軍方和阿拉幹軍（當地主要的少數民族武裝組織）的殺害，流離失所。

You've probably heard of the Rohingya, a mostly Muslim minority who've been persecuted for years. 750,000 fled to Bangladesh in 2017 to escape what the UN have called genocidal violence by the military.

你可能聽說過羅辛亞人，他們主要是穆斯林少數民族，多年來一直受到迫害。2017年，75萬羅興亞人逃往孟加拉國，以躲避被聯合國稱為種族滅絕的軍方暴力。

Aside from the reports of attacks on the Rohingya, the broader humanitarian situation in Rakhine is particularly bad.

除了有關羅興亞人遭到襲擊的報道外，若開邦更廣泛的人道主義狀況也尤為糟糕。

The UN is warning of famine there.

聯合國警告那裡將發生饑荒。

The people all across Myanmar need help. 20 million, according to the UN, and nowhere near enough aid is getting in. 15 million people don't have enough to eat, while cyclones and floods have destroyed huge areas of farmland.

緬甸各地的人民需要幫助。據聯合國統計，緬甸有 2,000 萬人需要幫助，但目前的援助遠遠不夠。1500萬人吃不飽飯，而颶風和洪水摧毀了大片農田。

And that's really impacted, heavily impacted food security.

這確實對糧食安全造成了嚴重影響。

Now that the resistance controls so much of the country, including all of the major crossing points to Bangladesh, India, China, Laos and Thailand, there is no excuse not to provide massive humanitarian relief by land across those land borders.

現在，抵抗力量控制了該國大部分地區，包括通往孟加拉國、印度、中國、寮國和泰國的所有主要過境點，是以沒有理由不通過陸路跨越這些陸地邊界提供大規模人道主義救援。

And this is a failure of the international system and of Myanmar's neighbours not to be undertaking this kind of humanitarian relief.

國際體系和緬甸的鄰國沒有開展此類人道主義救援活動，這是國際體系和緬甸鄰國的失敗。

Start Here is all about explaining the news.

Start Here 旨在解釋新聞。

Watch our recent video on terrorists, which Donald Trump is talking a lot about right now.

請觀看我們最近關於恐怖分子的影片，川普現在經常談論恐怖分子。

And follow me on Instagram so you can stay up to date with all the stories we're working on.

請在 Instagram 上關注我，以便隨時瞭解我們正在製作的所有故事。