Name: 美國如何毀掉年輕人的未來 | Scott Galloway | TED (How the US Is Destroying Young People’s Future | Scott Galloway | TED)
Uploaded: 2024-11-27T10:28:47.000Z
Duration: 18 min 38 s

My name is Scott Galloway. I teach at NYU and I appreciate your time. I have 44 slides and 720 seconds. Let's light this candle. OK. So for those of you who don't know me,

我叫斯科特-加洛韋。我在紐約大學教書，感謝您抽出時間。我有 44 張幻燈片和 720 秒。點燃蠟燭吧好的對於那些不認識我的人 So for those of you who don't know me、

基礎被動語態

I'm actually a global television star. True story. I've had four TV series in the last three years, two of them being canceled before they were launched and two were canceled within six weeks. Let's recap. If we want to juice this thing, if we want to put a cattle prod up the ass of the economy. Bloomberg, the most trusted name in financial news. Not for long. I'm going to do whatever I can for this country of ours. Jesus Christ. Come on, dude.

我其實是個全球電視明星。真實的故事。過去三年裡，我拍了四部電視劇，其中兩部還沒開播就被取消了，還有兩部在六週內就被取消了。讓我們來回顧一下。如果我們想給這東西加點料 如果我們想在經濟的屁股上插根牛筋彭博社，最值得信賴的名字 在金融新聞。不會太久的我會盡我所能為我們的國家做任何事上帝啊別這樣 夥計

轉承詞

You're 0 for 2. Are you used to it? Face for podcasting. So first insight of the day, I'd like to be the first person to welcome you to the last. OK. By the way, it's clear that what's it called? What are we here for? The brave and the brilliant. It's clear that Chris is a frustrated soap opera producer. Essentially, what we have here is a telenovela where after a night of unbridled passion between Bill Gates and Malcolm Gladwell, they give birth to their bastard love child, Simon Sinek. OK. I start us with a question. Do we love our children? Sounds like an illegitimate question, right? Well, I'm going to try and convince you otherwise. Essentially, as we go down generations, we're seeing that for the last two generations, people are making less money on an inflation adjusted basis.

你2投0中。習慣了嗎？面對播客。所以，今天的第一個見解， 我想成為第一個人 歡迎您到最後。好的順便問一下，很明顯，這叫什麼？我們來這裡是為了什麼？勇敢和聰明的人很明顯，克里斯是個失意的肥皂劇製作人。從根本上說，我們現在看到的是一部電視連續劇 在比爾-蓋茨和馬爾科姆-格拉德威爾的一夜激情之後 他們生下了他們的私生子，西蒙-辛克好的我先問大家一個問題我們愛我們的孩子嗎？聽起來像是個不合法的問題，對吧？好吧，那我就試著說服你。從根本上說，隨著代代相傳，我們看到在過去的兩代人中，人們賺的錢在通貨膨脹的基礎上越來越

In addition, the cost of buying a home, the cost of pursuing education continues to skyrocket.

此外，購房成本、求學成本也在不斷飆升。

So the purchasing power, the prosperity is inversely correlated to age. Simply put, as we get younger, we're taking away opportunity and prosperity from our youngest. The social contract that is now no longer in place, and for the first time in the US's history, a 30-year-old is no longer doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. This is a breakdown in the fundamental agreement we have with any society, and it creates rage and shame.

是以，購買力和繁榮與年齡成反比。簡而言之，隨著我們越來越年輕，我們正在剝奪最年輕一代的機會和繁榮。現在的社會契約已經不復存在，在美國曆史上，30 歲的人第一次不再像他或她的父母在 30 歲時那樣生活得那麼好。這是我們與任何社會達成的基本協議的破裂，它讓人憤怒和羞愧。

As a result, people over the age of 55 feel pretty good about America, but less than one in five people under the age of 34 feel very good about America. This creates an incendiary.

是以，55 歲以上的人對美國感覺很好，但 34 歲以下的人中只有不到五分之一的人對美國感覺很好。這就產生了一種煽動性。

Righteous movements, cuts to our society end up becoming opportunistic infections, because generally speaking, young people have a warranted envy, they're pissed off and they're angry that they don't enjoy the same spoils and prosperity that were provided to our generation.

正義的運動、對社會的破壞最終都會變成機會主義的感染，因為一般來說，年輕人有理由嫉妒，他們生氣，他們憤怒，因為他們沒有享受到我們這一代人所享受到的寵愛和繁榮。

A decent proxy for how much we value youth labor is minimum wage, and we've kept it purposely pretty low. If it had just kept pace with productivity, it'd be about 23 bucks a share, but we've decided to purposely keep it low. Out of reach, median home price has skyrocketed relative to median household income. As a result, pre-pandemic, the average mortgage payment was $1,100. It's now $2,300 because of acceleration in interest rates and the fact that the average home has gone from 290,000 to 420,000. By the way, the most expensive homes in the world, based on this metric, are number three, Vancouver. Why? Because 60% of the cost of building a home goes to permits, because guess what? The incumbents that own assets have weaponized government to make it very difficult for new entrants to ever get their own assets, thereby elevating their own net worth. This is the transfer

我們對青年勞動力的重視程度可以用最低工資標準來衡量，而我們故意把它壓得很低。如果最低工資能跟上生產力發展的步伐，那麼每份工資大約為 23 美元，但我們決定故意將其保持在較低水平。相對於家庭收入中位數，房價中位數已經飆升到遙不可及的地步。是以，在大流行之前，平均按揭付款額為 1100 美元。由於利率的加速上漲，以及平均房價從 29 萬漲到 42 萬，現在的平均房貸為 2300 美元。順便提一下，根據這一指標，世界上最昂貴的住宅是排名第三的溫哥華。為什麼呢？因為建房成本的 60% 都用在了許可證上，你猜怎麼著

This has resulted in an enormous transfer of wealth, where people over the age of 70 used to control 19% of household income, versus people under the age of 40 used to control 12. Their wealth has been cut in half. This isn't by accident. It's purposeful. This is me at UCOA in 1987. I know your first thought is, I haven't changed a bit. This is also

這導致了巨大的財富轉移，70 歲以上的人過去控制著 19% 的家庭收入，而 40 歲以下的人過去控制著 12%。他們的財富減少了一半。這不是偶然的。這是有目的的。這是我 1987 年在 UCOA 的照片。我知道你的第一反應是，我一點都沒變。這也是

Mia Saverio, who is the analyst who put together these slides. By the way, Mia is 26. I did the math. Just by virtue of her being in this audience, it brings the average age of the entire conference down 11 days.

米婭-薩維里奧（Mia Saverio），她是製作這些幻燈片的分析師。對了，米婭今年 26 歲。我算過了她的出現，讓整個會議的平均年齡下降了 11 天。

When I applied to UCOA, the admissions rate was 76%. Today, it's 9%. I received a 2.23

我申請加州大學洛杉磯分校時，錄取率是 76%。如今，錄取率是 9%。我的成績是 2.23

GPA from UCOA. I learned nothing but how to make bombs out of household items and every line from Planet of the Apes. And the greatest public school in the world, Berkeley, decided to let me in with a 2.27 GPA. And that's what higher ed is about. Higher ed is about taking unremarkable kids and giving them a shot at being remarkable.

從 UCOA 獲得的 GPA。我只學會了如何用生活用品製造炸彈，以及《人猿星球》裡的每一句臺詞。而世界上最偉大的公立學校伯克利分校決定讓我以 2.27 的平均績點入學。這就是高等教育的意義所在。高等教育就是讓那些不起眼的孩子有機會成為傑出的人。

And every year, it's gotten more expensive. Higher ed and homes and the ability, not only is higher ed incredibly expensive, it's not accessible. Because me and my colleagues are drunk on luxury, and I'll come back to that. We've embraced the ultimate strategy. Me and my colleagues in higher ed wake up every morning and ask ourselves the same question when we look in the mirror. How can I increase my compensation while reducing my accountability?

而且每年都在漲價。高等教育、住房和能力，不僅昂貴得令人難以置信，而且無法獲得。因為我和我的同事們都沉醉於奢華之中，我會再談這個問題。我們接受了終極戰略。我和我的高等教育同行們每天早上醒來，照鏡子的時候都會問自己同一個問題。我怎樣才能在增加報酬的同時減少責任？

And we have found the ultimate strategy. It's called an LVMH strategy, where we artificially constrain supply to create aspiration and scarcity, such that we can raise tuition faster than inflation. And old people and wealthy people have done the same thing with housing.

我們已經找到了終極戰略。這就是所謂的 "LVMH戰略"，我們人為地限制供應，製造渴望和稀缺，這樣我們就能以快於通脹的速度提高學費。老人和富人在住房問題上也是如此。

All of a sudden, once you own a home, you become very concerned with traffic, and you make sure that there's no new housing permits. And here is a memo to my colleagues in higher ed. We're public servants, not fucking Chanel bags.

突然之間，一旦你擁有了自己的房子，你就會變得非常關注交通，並確保沒有新的住房許可。這是給高等教育界同仁的備忘錄我們是公僕，不是該死的香奈兒包包。

Harvard is the best example of this. They've increased their endowment in the last 40 years and have decided to expand their enrollment, their freshman class, by 4%. Any university that doesn't grow their freshman class faster than population that has over a billion dollars in endowment should lose their tax-free status because they're no longer in higher education.

哈佛大學就是最好的例子。在過去的 40 年裡，他們增加了捐贈基金，並決定擴大招生規模，將新生班級擴大 4%。任何一所大學，如果其新生人數的增長速度沒有超過人口增長速度，而其捐贈基金又超過了 10 億美元，那麼他們就應該失去免稅資格，因為他們已經不再是高等教育機構了。

他們是一家提供課程的對沖基金。

My first recommendation, Biden should take some of that 750 billion earmarked to bail out the one-third of people that got to go to college on the backs of the two-thirds that didn't, and give a billion dollars to our 500 greatest public institutions size-adjusted in exchange for three things. One, they use technology and scale to reduce tuition by 2% a year, expand enrollments by 6% a year, and increase the number of vocational certifications and non-traditional four-year degrees by 20%. Where does that get us? In just 10 years, that doubles the freshman seats and cuts the cost in half. This isn't radical. This is called college in the 80s and 90s.

我的第一個建議是，拜登應該從那 7500 億美元專款中拿出一部分，用於救助那三分之一上了大學的人，而那三分之二的人卻沒有上大學，並向我們 500 所規模最大的公立院校提供 10 億美元，以換取三件事。第一，他們利用技術和規模每年降低學費 2%，每年擴大招生 6%，並將職業認證和非傳統四年制學位的數量增加 20%。這樣做的結果是什麼？在短短的 10 年時間裡，新生名額翻番，成本減半。這並不激進。這就是八九十年代的大學。

Another transfer of wealth. Look at what's happened to wages. Oh, they've gone up. Not as much as corporate profits. There's a healthy tension between capital and labor. For the last 40 years, capital has been kicking the shit out of labor. Well, you think, whoa, what about wages, right? They've gone up. Well, if you compare them to the S&P, they barely register. It's been an amazing time to own assets, but your attempt to get the certification or the income such that you can acquire assets has gotten harder and harder.

又一次財富轉移。看看工資發生了什麼變化。工資漲了但沒有企業利潤漲得多資本和勞動力之間存在著健康的緊張關係在過去的40年裡，資本一直在壓榨勞動力你會想，哇，那工資呢？工資漲了如果你把它們和標準普爾指數相比，它們幾乎沒漲。這是一個擁有資產的神奇時代，但你想獲得證書或收入，從而獲得資產，卻變得越來越難。

My class of 300 kids, it's never been easier to be a billionaire. It's never been harder to be a millionaire. By the way, our job in higher ed isn't to identify a top 1% of people who are freakishly remarkable or have rich parents and turn them into a superclass of billionaires. It's to give the bottom 90 a chance to be in the top 10.

我們班有300個孩子，成為億萬富翁從來沒有這麼容易過。成為百萬富翁也從未如此艱難。順便說一句，我們在高等教育中的工作並不是找出前1%的人，讓他們成為超級億萬富翁。我們的工作是讓最底層的 90 人有機會躋身前 10 名。

You know who doesn't need me or higher education? The top 10%. The whole point of higher ed is to give the unremarkables, I, yours truly, who was raised by a single immigrant mother, a shot at being remarkable. The transfer has been purposeful. While the cohorts, corporations and the ultra-wealthy continue to garner more and more of our wealth, we have decided, I know, if they win the gold, let's give them the silver and the bronze and let's lower their taxes. This transfer is purposeful. It's not by accident. And it works. Senior poverty is way down, and we should celebrate that. Meanwhile, child poverty is flat to up. The third rail, I'm going to talk about Social Security. It would cost $11 billion to expand the child tax credit, but that got stripped out of the infrastructure bill. But the additional $135 billion a year to Social Security, that flies right through Congress.

你知道誰不需要我或高等教育嗎？前10%的人。高等教育的意義就在於給那些不起眼的人，我，你，一個由移民單親母親撫養長大的人，一個出人頭地的機會。這種轉移是有目的的。當我們的同胞、公司和超級富豪繼續攫取越來越多的財富時，我們決定，我知道，如果他們贏得了金牌，讓我們給他們銀牌和銅牌，讓我們降低他們的稅收。這種轉移是有目的的。這不是偶然的。而且很有效。老年人的貧困率大幅下降，我們應該為此慶祝。與此同時，兒童貧困率從持平到上升。第三條軌道，我要談談社會保障。擴大兒童稅收抵免將耗資110億美元，但這被從基礎設施法案中

And every year, we transfer $1.4 trillion from a cohort that is increasingly doing less well to the cohort that is the wealthiest cohort in the history of this planet. I'm not against Social Security, but the criteria should be if you need it, not whether you have a catheter. Eighty percent of you, 80 percent of you have absolutely no reason to ever take Social Security. It is bankrupting our nation, and we have fallen under this mythology that somehow it's this great social program. No, it's not. It's the great transfer of wealth from young to old. How is this happening? Because our representatives are in fact representative. Old people vote. Washington has become a cross between the land of the dead and the Golden Girls. Quite frankly, this is fucking ridiculous. And if I sound ageist, I am. And you know who else is ageist? Biology. When Speaker Pelosi had her first child, get this, two-thirds of households didn't have color televisions, and Castro had just declared martial law. But she's supposed to understand the challenges of a 17-year-old girl who's 5'9", 95 pounds, getting tips on dieting and extreme dieting from Facebook.

每年，我們都要將 1.4 萬億美元從情況越來越差的人群中轉移到地球歷史上最富有的人群中。我不反對社會保障，但標準應該是你是否需要它，而不是你是否有導尿管。80%的人，80%的人絕對沒有理由去享受社會保障。它正在讓我們的國家破產，而我們卻陷入了這個神話，以為它是一個偉大的社會計劃。不，它不是。這是財富從年輕人向老年人的大轉移。這是怎麼發生的？因為我們的代表實際上是有代表性的。老年人投票華盛頓成了亡靈國度和黃金女郎的混合體坦率地說，這太他媽荒謬了。如果我聽起來有年齡歧視，那我就是。你知道還有誰有年齡歧視嗎？生

She's supposed to understand the challenges that a 27-year-old single mother face. By the way, young and dreamy. Young and dreamy. The great intergenerational theft took place under the auspices of a virus. I know. Let's use the greatest health crisis in the century to really speedball the transfer. This is the NASDAQ from 2008 to 2012. We let the markets crash. And by the way, you need churn, you need disruption, because it seeds and recalibrates advantage and wealth from the incumbents to the entrants. It's a natural part of the cycle.

她應該能理解一個 27 歲的單身母親所面臨的挑戰。順便說一句，年輕多夢。年輕多夢偉大的代際盜竊案是在病毒的支持下發生的。我知道讓我們用本世紀最嚴重的健康危機來加速轉移吧。這是2008年到2012年的納斯達克指數我們讓市場崩潰了順便說一句，你需要攪動，你需要混亂，因為它會播下種子，重新調整優勢和財富，從在位者轉移到新進入者。這是週期的自然組成部分。

But wait. Lately, no, a million people dying would be bad, but what would be tragic is if we let the NASDAQ go down and guys like me lost wealth. So we pumped the economy, which again, increased the massive transfer of wealth. The best two years of my life?

但等等最近，不，一百萬人的死亡是不好的，但如果我們讓納斯達克指數下跌 像我這樣的人失去財富，那才是悲劇。所以我們刺激了經濟，再次加劇了財富的大規模轉移。我一生中最美好的兩年？

COVID. More time with my kids, more time with Netflix, and my value of my stocks absolutely exploded. And who has to pay for my prosperity? Not me. Future generations who will have to deal with an unprecedented level of debt. Why am I here, and why do I get the prosperity

COVID。有更多時間陪孩子，有更多時間看 Netflix，我的股票價值也絕對爆炸。誰要為我的繁榮買單？不是我。子孫後代，他們將不得不面對前所未有的高額債務。為什麼我在這裡，為什麼我能獲得繁榮

I enjoy? Because in 2008, we bailed out the banks, but we didn't bail out the economy.

我喜歡？因為在 2008 年，我們救助了銀行，但沒有救助經濟。

We let the markets fall. So as I was coming into my prime income earning years, I got to buy, no joke, these stocks at these prices. This is where those stocks are now. Where does a young person find disruption? When you bail out the baby boomer owner of a restaurant, all you're doing is robbing opportunity from the 26-year-old graduate of a culinary academy that wants her shot. We need disruption.

我們讓市場下跌。是以，在我進入賺取收入的黃金時期時，我以這樣的價格買入了這些股票，不是開玩笑。這就是這些股票現在的價格。年輕人到哪裡去尋找混亂？當你救助嬰兒潮一代的餐館老闆時，你所做的一切就是在搶奪烹飪學院 26 歲畢業生的機會，因為她也想一展身手。我們需要顛覆。

I just like this slide. It has no context or relevance.

我只是喜歡這張幻燈片。它沒有任何背景或相關性。

We're economically attacking the young, but I know. Let's attack their emotional and mental well-being. Let's take advantage of the fact of the flaws in our species with medieval institutions, paleolithic instincts, and God-like technology. We're not going to do that. We're going to do it. We're going to do it. We're going to do it. We're going to do it. We're going to do it. I'm just going to say, I think Mark Zuckerberg has done more damage to young people on our nation while making more money than any person in history.

我們在經濟上攻擊年輕人，但我知道。讓我們攻擊他們的情感和精神健康。讓我們利用我們這個物種的缺陷，利用中世紀的制度，利用舊石器時代的本能，利用上帝般的技術。我們不會這麼做的我們要這麼做我們要這麼做我們要這麼做我們會做到的We're going to do it.我只想說，我認為馬克-扎克伯格對我們國家的年輕人造成的傷害比歷史上任何一個人都大，而他賺的錢卻比任何一個人都多。

Oh, but wait, what would be worse? It's as if we let an adversary implant a neural jack into our youth to raise a generation of civic, military, and business leaders that hate America.

哦，等等，還有比這更糟的嗎？就好像我們讓對手在我們的年輕人身上植入一個神經插孔，培養出一代仇恨美國的公民、軍事和商業領袖。

All right, this all adds up to a bunch of graphs all headed up into the right.

好了，所有這些加起來就是一堆向右上方移動的圖表。

Oh, that's self-harm rates, which have exploded, especially among girls, since my colleague

哦，那是自殘率，自從我的同事去世後，自殘率呈爆炸性增長，尤其是在女孩中。

Jonathan Haidt pointed out it's really, really gone crazy since social went on mobile.

喬納森-海特（Jonathan Haidt）指出，自從社交媒體進入移動互聯網後，它真的變得非常非常瘋狂。

What's the next one? Teens with depression.

下一個是什麼？患有抑鬱症的青少年

The next one, men and women not having sex.

Biggest fear of my parents was that I was going to get in too much trouble.

父母最擔心的是我惹上大麻煩。

My biggest fear, honestly, is that my kids aren't going to get into enough trouble.

老實說，我最擔心的是孩子們惹的麻煩不夠多。

By the way, my advice to every young person watching this program is go out, drink more, and make a series of bad decisions that might pay off.

順便說一句，我給每一個觀看這個節目的年輕人的建議是，多出去走走，多喝點酒，做一系列可能會有回報的錯誤決定。

下一張圖，累計槍支死亡人數。

You're more likely to be shot in the United States if you're a toddler or an infant than a cop.

在美國，如果你是一個蹣跚學步的兒童或嬰兒，那麼你被槍擊的可能性比警察更大。

下一張圖是肥胖症，一路上升。

By the way, the industrial food complex wants to addict you to shitty, fatty food so they can hand you over to the industrial diabetes complex.

順便說一句，工業化食品集團想讓你對低劣、油膩的食物上癮，這樣他們就能把你交給工業化糖尿病集團。

You're not finding your fucking truth, you're finding diabetes.

你他媽的不是在尋找真相，而是在尋找糖尿病。

When I was in high school, it was drunk driving.

我上高中的時候，就是酒後駕車。

Young people don't want to have kids anymore.

Two-thirds of people aged 30 to 34, able-bodied, used to decide to have at least one child.

三分之二的 30 至 34 歲的健全人曾經決定至少要一個孩子。

As a result, people over the age of 60 in the US, pretty happy.

是以，美國 60 歲以上的老人相當幸福。

Nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed with what's right with it.

美國沒有什麼問題是不能用正確的方法來解決的。

There are programs to address all of these issues.

有一些計劃可以解決所有這些問題。

They cost a lot of money, that's the hard part.

它們需要很多錢，這是最困難的部分。

In just five minutes, post an earnings call, we can add a quarter of a trillion dollars to the economy.

只需五分鐘，在財報電話會議後，我們就能為經濟增加 25 萬億美元。

We've got the hard part figured out, the resources.

我們已經解決了最困難的部分，那就是資源。

We have the money, but we decide not to do it.

我們有錢，但我們決定不這麼做。

This is per capita spending on childcare in the United States relative to other nations.

這是美國相對於其他國家的人均育兒支出。

We increase minimum wage to 25 bucks an hour.

我們將最低工資提高到每小時 25 美元。

The wonderful things about low- and middle-income households is they spend all their money.

中低收入家庭的奇妙之處在於他們把錢都花光了。

We have to have a progressive tax structure with alternative minimum tax on corporations and wealthy individuals.

我們必須建立累進稅制結構，對公司和富人徵收替代性最低稅。

It should be based on whether you need the money, not on how old you are.

應該根據你是否需要這筆錢來決定，而不是根據你的年齡來決定。

My friend Andrew Yang screwed up a great idea, but he branded it incorrectly.

我的朋友安德魯-楊搞砸了一個好主意，但他打錯了烙印。

Instead of calling it UBI, he should have got Republicans on board by calling it a negative income tax.

與其稱之為 UBI，他還不如稱之為負所得稅，讓共和黨人也加入進來。

We need to eliminate the capital gains tax deduction.

我們需要取消資本利得稅減免。

When did we decide that the money that capital earns is more noble than the money that sweat earns?

我們什麼時候認定資本賺來的錢比汗水賺來的錢更高貴？

We need to remove 230 protection for all algorithmically elevated content.

我們需要取消對所有算法提升內容的 230 項保護。

The reason we can have identity verification is because we have a First Amendment.

我們之所以可以進行身份驗證，是因為我們有第一修正案。

We have monopolies that are incurring greater and greater costs on every small business and parents, because, again, see above, our representatives don't understand these technologies.

我們的壟斷讓每個小企業和家長承擔了越來越大的成本，因為我們的代表不瞭解這些技術。

我們需要將社交媒體與年齡掛鉤。

There's absolutely no reason anyone under the age of 16 should ever be on social media.

16 歲以下的人絕對沒有理由上社交媒體。

We need to reinstate the expanded child tax credit.

我們需要恢復擴大的兒童稅收抵免。

我們需要以收入為基礎的平權行動。

Any visible signs of affirmative action make no sense at all.

任何明顯的平權行動跡象都毫無意義。

You would rather be born gay or non-white in the United States today than poor, and that's a sign of our progress and our need to recalibrate who we give advantage to.

在今天的美國，你寧願生為同志或非白人，也不願意生為窮人，這說明我們在進步，我們需要重新調整我們的優勢。

Affirmative action, of which I'm a beneficiary of,

平權法案，我是其中的受益者、

I got Pell grants, I got unfair advantage.

我得到了佩爾助學金，我得到了不公平的優勢。

Affirmative action is a wonderful thing, and it should be based on color.

平權法案是一件了不起的事情，它應該以膚色為依據。

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美國如何毀掉年輕人的未來 | Scott Galloway | TED (How the US Is Destroying Young People’s Future | Scott Galloway | TED)

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