And in just 4,600 years, your gold coins would outweigh the observable universe.

只需 4600 年，你的金幣就會超過可觀測到的宇宙。

This periodic doubling is an example of exponential growth.

這種週期性翻倍就是指數增長的一個例子。

And while we're not in any danger of discovering a real-life golden goose coin, something almost as consequential has been growing like this for the past 200 or so years.

雖然我們沒有發現現實生活中的金鵝硬幣的危險，但在過去的 200 多年裡，幾乎同樣重要的東西一直在這樣發展。

The global economy.

全球經濟。

Many economists think that an eternally growing economy is necessary to keep improving people's lives.

許多經濟學家認為，要不斷改善人們的生活，就必須實現經濟的持續增長。

And that if the global economy stops growing, people would fight more over the fixed amount of value that exists, rather than working to generate new value.

如果全球經濟停止增長，人們將更多地爭奪現有的固定價值，而不是努力創造新的價值。

That raises the question, is infinite growth possible on a finite planet?

這就提出了一個問題：在一個有限的星球上，無限增長可能嗎？

We measure economic growth by tracking the total financial value of everything a country or the world produces and sells on the market.

我們通過跟蹤一個國家或世界在市場上生產和銷售的所有產品的總金融價值來衡量經濟增長。

These products can help us meet basic needs, or improve our individual and collective quality of life.

這些產品可以幫助我們滿足基本需求，或改善我們個人和集體的生活品質。

But they also, crucially, take resources to invent, build, or maintain.

但重要的是，發明、建造或維護它們也需要資源。

For example, this smartphone.

例如，這款智能手機。

It's valuable in part because it contains aluminum, gallium, and silicon, all of which took energy and resources to mine, purify, and turn into a phone.

它之所以珍貴，部分原因是它含有鋁、鎵和硅，而所有這些物質的開採、提純和轉化為手機都需要能源和資源。

It's also valuable because of all the effort that went into designing the hardware and writing the software.

它的價值還在於設計硬件和編寫軟件所付出的努力。

And it's also valuable because a guy in a black turtleneck got up on stage and told you it was.

它之所以有價值，還因為一個穿著黑色高領毛衣的人站在臺上告訴你它是有價值的。

So how do we grow the total financial value of all things?

那麼，我們該如何增加所有事物的總財務價值呢？

One way is to make more things.

一種方法是製造更多的東西。

Another way is to invent new things.

另一種方法是發明新事物。

However you do it, growing the economy requires resources and energy.

無論如何，經濟增長都需要資源和能源。

And eventually, won't we just run out?

最後，我們不就用完了嗎？

To answer this question, let's consider what goes into the economy and what comes out of it.

要回答這個問題，我們先來看看經濟的流入和流出。

Its inputs are labor, capital, which you can think of as money, and natural resources like water or energy.

其投入包括勞動力、資本（可以理解為貨幣）以及水或能源等自然資源。

Its output is value.

它的輸出是價值。

Over the past 200 years, economies have gotten exponentially more efficient at producing value.

在過去的 200 年裡，經濟體生產價值的效率呈指數級增長。

If we, as a species, are able to keep upgrading our economies so that they get ever more efficient, we could theoretically pump out more and more value using the same, or let's be really ambitious here, fewer resources.

如果我們作為一個物種，能夠不斷升級我們的經濟，使其變得越來越高效，那麼理論上，我們就可以用同樣的資源，或者讓我們雄心勃勃地說，用更少的資源，創造出越來越多的價值。

So how do we do that?

那麼，我們該怎麼做呢？

How do we increase efficiency?

如何提高效率？

With new technologies.

採用新技術。

This is where we hit a snag.

就在這時，我們遇到了麻煩。

New tech, in addition to making things more efficient, can also generate new demand, which ends up using more resources.

新技術除了能提高效率，還能產生新的需求，最終使用更多的資源。

We're actually not in imminent danger of running out of most resources, but we have a much bigger and more immediate problem.

實際上，我們並沒有馬上面臨大多數資源枯竭的危險，但我們有一個更大、更緊迫的問題。

The global economy, and in particular those of rich countries, is driving climate change and destroying valuable natural environments on which all of us depend.

全球經濟，尤其是富裕國家的經濟，正在推動氣候變化，破壞我們賴以生存的寶貴的自然環境。

Soil, forests, fisheries, and countless other resources that help keep our civilization running.

土壤、森林、漁業和無數其他資源，幫助我們維持文明的運轉。

So what should we do?

那我們該怎麼辦？

This is where economists disagree.

這就是經濟學家的分歧所在。

Most economists think that new ideas will be able to fix most of these problems.

大多數經濟學家認為，新思路能夠解決大部分問題。

They argue that, in the same way that exponentially increasing resource and energy use have fueled exponential economic growth, human ingenuity has also increased exponentially, and will rise to meet these challenges in ways that we simply can't predict.

他們認為，資源和能源使用的指數式增長推動了經濟的指數式增長，同樣，人類的智慧也在指數式增長，並將以我們無法預測的方式迎接這些挑戰。

For example, between 2000 and 2014, Germany grew their GDP by 16% while cutting CO2 emissions by 12%.

例如，2000 年至 2014 年間，德國的國內生產總值增長了 16%，而二氧化碳排放量卻減少了 12%。

That's impressive, but it's not cutting emissions fast enough to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

這給人留下了深刻印象，但要將升溫控制在 1.5 攝氏度以內，減排速度還不夠快。

For this reason and others, some economists think the solution is to re-engineer our economies completely.

出於這個原因和其他原因，一些經濟學家認為解決方案是徹底重新設計我們的經濟。

They make the case that what we should really be doing is weaning ourselves from the addiction to growth and shifting to a post-growth economy.

他們提出的理由是，我們真正應該做的是擺脫對增長的沉迷，轉向後增長經濟。

What would that look like?

那會是什麼樣子？

A post-growth economy wouldn't assume that the economy should grow.

後增長經濟不會假定經濟應該增長。

Instead, it would require us to focus on improving what we really need, things like renewable energy, healthcare, and public transportation.

相反，這將要求我們專注於改善我們真正需要的東西，比如可再生能源、醫療保健和公共交通。

To do that, post-growth economists suggest that rich countries should do things like guarantee living wages, reduce wealth and income inequality, and ensure universal access to public services like healthcare.

為此，"後增長 "經濟學家建議，富裕國家應該做一些事情，比如保障生活工資、減少財富和收入不平等、確保普及醫療保健等公共服務。

In such an economy, people would be theoretically less dependent on their jobs to earn their living or get healthcare, so it might be more feasible to scale down production of things deemed less necessary.

在這樣的經濟中，人們理論上不再那麼依賴於工作來謀生或獲得醫療保健，是以減少被認為不那麼必要的東西的生產可能更加可行。

But this raises other questions.

但這也提出了其他問題。

Who gets to define what's necessary?

誰來定義什麼是必要的？

How would we resolve the inevitable disagreements?

我們將如何解決不可避免的分歧？

Could we really do away with entire industries?

我們真的可以取消整個行業嗎？

The, we'll come up with new ideas to solve these problems, approach can seem as realistic as, well, a magical gold coin.

我們會想出新點子來解決這些問題，這種方法看起來就像神奇的金幣一樣現實。

And the, we have to fundamentally change our economies, approach can seem politically daunting, particularly in rich countries.

而 "我們必須從根本上改變我們的經濟 "這一方法在政治上似乎令人生畏，尤其是在富裕國家。

But one way or another, we have to find a way to benefit everyone while also taking care of our planet.

但無論如何，我們必須找到一種既能讓每個人受益，又能保護地球的方法。

We might even have to enlist help, learn more about the role AI systems should and shouldn't play in our future with this video.

我們甚至可能需要尋求幫助，通過這段視頻瞭解更多關於人工智能系統在我們的未來應該和不應該扮演的角色。

Or continue to expand your understanding of economics on the World Economic Forum's YouTube channel.

或者繼續通過世界經濟論壇的 YouTube 頻道加深對經濟學的理解。