Name: 特朗普這次勢在必得：沒有什麼能阻止他 | @visualeconomiken (Trump Is All In This Time: Nothing Can Stop Him | @visualeconomiken)
Uploaded: 2024-11-14T17:41:08.000Z
Duration: 16 min 10 s

The US presidential election has concluded with a clear winner, Donald J.

美國總統大選已落下帷幕，唐納德-J.

So as this is VisualEconomic, today we believe it's time to talk about the economic vision of the next President of the United States, Donald Trump's plan for America.

是以，這裡是《視覺經濟》，今天我們認為是時候談談下一任美國總統唐納德-特朗普的美國計劃的經濟願景了。

Trump has already been in the White House.

He's already had four years to govern and show the rest of the world what his plans are for making America great again.

他已經有四年時間來治理國家，並向世界展示他讓美國再次偉大的計劃。

And let's face it, everything indicates that a second presidency of the business tycoon will be more of the same, but this time on steroids.

讓我們面對現實吧，一切都表明，這位商業大亨的第二任總統任期內將會有更多的相同之處，但這次是類固醇。

特朗普主義 2.0，現在比以往任何時候都更特朗普。

In 2016, Trump was an outsider who managed to secure the Republican nomination almost by miracle.

2016 年，特朗普作為一個局外人，幾乎奇蹟般地獲得了共和黨的提名。

In fact, as we will explain in an upcoming video, Trump never really wanted to be president.

事實上，正如我們將在接下來的視頻中解釋的那樣，特朗普從未真正想當總統。

For him, running for president was more about gaining personal status as the great opponent of the Democrats.

對他來說，競選總統更多是為了獲得作為民主黨偉大對手的個人地位。

The reality is that in 2015, nobody gave a damn whether or not Donald Trump could really beat the successor of such an established leader as Obama.

現實情況是，在 2015 年，沒有人關心唐納德-特朗普是否真的能擊敗奧巴馬這樣一位老牌領導人的繼任者。

Well, he didn't actually win the popular vote.

More Americans voted for Clinton than for Trump.

投票給克林頓的美國人比投票給特朗普的人多。

But thanks to the electoral system, Trump was finally elected by the number of members of the Electoral College.

但得益於選舉制度，特朗普最終以選舉團人數當選。

And Trump suddenly found himself president of the country without expecting it.

而特朗普突然發現自己成了這個國家的總統，這讓他始料未及。

These days, however, the circumstances are very, very different.

然而，如今的情況卻截然不同。

In those four years, Trump got used to the position of president.

在這四年裡，特朗普逐漸適應了總統這個職位。

And for that, he got the majority of his party on his side, as well as placing many like-minded officials in the institutions.

為此，他得到了黨內大多數人的支持，並在機構中安插了許多志同道合的官員。

There are the three members of the Supreme Court that he nominated.

還有他提名的三位最高法院成員。

And while this is sometimes overstated, it's true that these are judges with a profile much more likely to vote for things that favor the Republican Party.

雖然這一點有時會被誇大，但這些法官確實更傾向於投票支持有利於共和黨的事物。

Now, this is not to say that all of Trump's appointees were puppets.

現在，這並不是說特朗普任命的所有官員都是傀儡。

Powell at the Federal Reserve has had many, many clashes with Trump.

美聯儲的鮑威爾與特朗普發生過許許多多的衝突。

And Mike Pence feuded with him following the events of January 6 with the assault on Congress.

而邁克-彭斯在 1 月 6 日襲擊國會事件後與他結怨。

For many, Pence became a counterweight to Trumpism, both within the government and the Republican Party.

對許多人來說，彭斯在政府和共和黨內部都成為了特朗普主義的制衡者。

A person who brought seriousness and restraint to the eccentricities of the new occupant of the White House.

他為白宮新主人的怪癖帶來了嚴肅和剋制。

Donald Trump's new vice president will not be Mike Pence, but J.D.

唐納德-特朗普的新副總統不會是邁克-彭斯，而是 J.D.

Vance, a man with Trumpism flowing in his veins.

萬斯，一個血管裡流淌著特朗普主義的人。

So, during his first term, Trump had to make many concessions to the more moderate wing of his party.

是以，在第一任期內，特朗普不得不向黨內較為溫和的一派做出許多讓步。

But everything indicates that this time, a free hand to implement his vision of America, whether for better or worse.

但一切都表明，這一次，他可以放手實施他對美國的願景，不管是好是壞。

That's what we're about to tell you in this video.

這就是我們要在本視頻中告訴你的內容。

Trump shot up tariffs on Chinese goods, from washing machines to solar panels.

特朗普對中國商品（從洗衣機到太陽能電池板）加徵關稅。

Tariffs to which Biden then added fuel to the fire.

拜登隨後對關稅問題火上澆油。

While Trump raised $75 billion by means of punishing Chinese imports, Biden has raised $135 billion.

特朗普通過懲罰中國進口商品籌集了 750 億美元，而拜登則籌集了 1 350 億美元。

And of course, we all know by now that Donald Trump is a very bad loser, so he has proposed to leave these figures in the dust.

當然，我們現在都知道，唐納德-特朗普是一個非常糟糕的失敗者，所以他提出要讓這些數字灰飛煙滅。

Trump's 2016 tariffs went up from an average of 3% to 12%.

特朗普 2016 年的關稅從平均 3% 上升到 12%。

And let's see, in economics there are many things that depend on each situation.

讓我們看看，在經濟學中，有許多事情都取決於各種情況。

But there are others that are always true.

Tariffs are paid by consumers, ordinary Americans who buy foreign products.

關稅是由消費者，即購買外國產品的普通美國人支付的。

Basically that Trump is proposing one of the largest peacetime tax hikes in the entire history of the country.

基本上，特朗普提出的是整個國家歷史上和平時期最大的一次增稅。

Because yes, tariffs hurt the poorest consumers the most, those who have to buy inexpensive products from other countries.

因為是的，關稅對最貧窮的消費者傷害最大，他們不得不從其他國家購買廉價產品。

But not only that, the tariffs also force companies to pay higher prices for the raw materials they used to buy in China.

不僅如此，關稅還迫使企業為過去在中國購買的原材料支付更高的價格。

So they end up losing productivity, real wages go down and prices go up.

是以，他們最終喪失了生產力，實際工資下降，物價上漲。

As a result of these policies, US GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%.

由於這些政策，美國國內生產總值估計下降了 0.2%。

Of course, none of this is going to stop Donald Trump from doubling down.

當然，這些都無法阻止唐納德-特朗普加倍努力。

For him, these failures, if he recognizes them as failures at all, are the consequences of having imposed tariffs that were too small.

對他來說，這些失敗--如果他承認它們是失敗的話--是徵收的關稅過低造成的後果。

But be very careful, because if the 60% tariffs on Chinese goods surprised you, believe me, it's not their worst trade policy by far.

但要非常小心，因為如果對中國商品徵收 60% 的關稅讓你感到驚訝，相信我，這還不是他們迄今為止最糟糕的貿易政策。

Because look, you could argue that all the costs we've talked about before are the price to pay in exchange for defeating a dangerous geopolitical enemy.

因為你可以說，我們之前談到的所有代價，都是為了打敗一個危險的地緣政治敵人而付出的代價。

In other words, we become China loses strength.

換句話說，我們變成了失去力量的中國。

Well, this argument may make sense, but only to a certain extent.

這種說法也許有道理，但只是在一定程度上。

Because what doesn't make the slightest sense is the Trumpist proposal for a universal tariff.

因為特朗普主義者提出的普遍關稅建議才是毫無意義的。

That is, a tariff that affects not only China, but all foreign products, even if they come from allied countries such as the European ones.

也就是說，關稅不僅影響中國，而且影響所有外國產品，即使這些產品來自歐洲等盟國。

This would mean returning American trade policy to what it was during the Great Depression.

這意味著美國的貿易政策將回到大蕭條時期。

And to give you an idea, many economists believe that the tariffs of this era were one of the main causes of the crash of 1929.

許多經濟學家認為，這個時代的關稅是導致 1929 年經濟崩潰的主要原因之一。

And beware, because this tariff, up to 20%, would be for all products.

要注意的是，這種高達 20% 的關稅將適用於所有產品。

But on top of that, it would be necessary to add more to the products that have an extra tariff.

但在此基礎上，有必要增加額外關稅的產品。

In any case, to defend Trump's position a bit, it could be said that the US already had much higher tariffs in the past, during the 19th century, precisely the century in which the country became the world's leading power.

無論如何，為了給特朗普的立場辯護一下，可以說美國在過去的 19 世紀就已經徵收了高得多的關稅，而恰恰是在那個世紀，美國成為了世界頭號強國。

So, well, they wouldn't be so bad, would they?

那麼，他們也不會太壞，不是嗎？

Plus, with all the money raised, other taxes could be eliminated.

此外，有了籌集到的資金，還可以取消其他稅收。

Since Trump, for instance, has talked about completely abolishing the federal income tax.

比如，特朗普就曾表示要徹底廢除聯邦所得稅。

However, what you're not taking into account is that, during that time, the presence of the federal government in the economy was less than 2%, not 30% as it has now.

然而，你沒有考慮到的是，在那個時期，聯邦政府在經濟中的存在率不到 2%，而不是現在的 30%。

What's more, many economists such as Douglas Irwin have studied the matter and have concluded that these tariffs did not serve to protect the newly emerging US industry, but rather made it much less competitive.

更重要的是，許多經濟學家，如道格拉斯-歐文（Douglas Irwin），對此事進行了研究，得出的結論是，這些關稅並沒有起到保護美國新興產業的作用，反而使其競爭力大大降低。

Now, if one thing is clear, it's that the tariffs are going to raise more money for So the question is obvious, how does he plan to spend it?

現在，如果有一件事是明確的，那就是關稅將為他籌集更多資金，那麼問題就顯而易見了，他打算如何使用這些資金？

特朗普很清楚，他想要降低稅收。

In his last mandate, the Republican president already lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.

共和黨總統在上任後已將企業稅率從 35% 下調至 21%。

In fact, the GDP grew more than what the state stopped collecting.

事實上，國內生產總值的增長超過了國家停止徵收的部分。

Nevertheless, the debt skyrocketed and it looks like Trump plans to continue down this In other words, the US would become one of the countries with the lowest corporate tax in the world.

換句話說，美國將成為世界上企業稅最低的國家之一。

In the same vein, Trump has also proposed large tax breaks for companies that invest in improving their productivity.

同樣，特朗普還提議為投資提高生產力的公司提供大額稅收減免。

That is, as long as all these investments are made with American workers and equipment.

也就是說，只要所有這些投資都是由美國工人和設備完成的。

So your company wants to buy a more efficient machine from a European factory.

是以，貴公司想從一家歐洲工廠購買一臺更高效的機器。

Ah, sorry, you'll have to pay all the taxes there.

啊，對不起，你得支付那裡的所有稅款。

On the other hand, the now president-elect has proposed eliminating the taxation of overtime hours and tips received in the hospitality sector.

另一方面，現在的當選總統提議取消對酒店業的加班費和小費徵稅。

By the way, this was apparently such a popular idea that Kamala Harris copied it within two days of the Republican leader announcing it.

順便說一句，這個想法顯然很受歡迎，以至於卡馬拉-哈里斯在共和黨領袖宣佈這個想法的兩天內就複製了它。

Even so, popular doesn't always mean good.

即便如此，受歡迎並不總是意味著好。

To give you an idea, with this measure the state would lose 50% more revenue than with the corporate tax cut.

舉例來說，如果採取這項措施，州政府的收入損失將比企業減稅多 50%。

Specifically, $300 billion would be lost over 10 years.

具體來說，10 年內將損失 3,000 億美元。

And if the revenue hole wasn't already gaping, Trump also wants seniors' social security benefits to not be counted as income and therefore be exempt from taxation.

如果說收入缺口還不夠大的話，特朗普還希望老年人的社會保障福利不被算作收入，從而免於徵稅。

Trump proposes a brutal increase of between 55 and 80% of public pensions, a figure similar to the entire GDP of entire countries such as Ukraine or Slovakia.

特朗普提議將公共養老金粗暴地提高 55% 至 80%，這一數字與烏克蘭或斯洛伐克等整個國家的全部 GDP 相近。

And if we add to all this a significant increase in defense spending, reinforcement of the border with Mexico and other smaller programs, the result is that Trump would send the public debt into the stratosphere.

如果再加上大幅增加國防開支、加固與墨西哥的邊境以及其他較小的項目，結果就是特朗普將把公共債務推向平流層。

Specifically, over the next 10 years, Trump proposes to lower taxes or raise government spending by $10 trillion, but the new tariffs would barely raise $2.7.

具體來說，在未來 10 年中，特朗普提議降低稅收或增加政府支出 10 萬億美元，但新關稅只能勉強增加 2.7 美元。

But now, doesn't Trump strongly criticize government spending?

但現在，特朗普不是強烈責備政府開支嗎？

Doesn't he accuse the Democrats of spending hand over fist?

他不是指責民主黨花錢大手大腳嗎？

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特朗普這次勢在必得：沒有什麼能阻止他 | @visualeconomiken (Trump Is All In This Time: Nothing Can Stop Him | @visualeconomiken)

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