Name: 如何創造未來薩姆-奧特曼 (How To Build The Future: Sam Altman)
Uploaded: 2024-11-13T05:14:16.000Z
Duration: 46 min 52 s

過去簡單式

We said from the very beginning we were going to go after AGI at a time when, in the field, you weren't allowed to say that.

我們從一開始就說，我們要追尋 AGI，而當時在這個領域，你還不能這麼說。

Because that just seemed impossibly crazy.

I remember a rash of criticism for you guys at that moment.

我記得那一刻，對你們的責備聲此起彼伏。

We really wanted to push on that, and we were far less resourced than DeepMind and others.

我們真的很想推動這項工作，但我們的資源遠遠比不上 DeepMind 和其他公司。

And so we said, okay, they're going to try a lot of things, and we've just got to pick one and really concentrate, and that's how we can win here.

於是我們說，好吧，他們會嘗試很多方法，我們只需選擇一種，集中精力，這樣就能贏了。

Most of the world still does not understand the value of a fairly extreme level of conviction on one bet.

世界上大多數人仍然不明白，對一次下注抱有相當極端的信念有多重要。

That's why I'm so excited for startups right now.

這就是為什麼我現在對初創企業感到如此興奮。

It is because the world is still sleeping on all of this to such an astonishing degree.

這是因為世界還在沉睡，沉睡的程度令人震驚。

我們今天為您準備了一份大禮。

薩姆-奧特曼，感謝您接受我們的採訪。

This is actually a reboot of your series, How to Build the Future.

這實際上是你的系列文章《如何創造未來》的重啟。

And so welcome back to the series that you started.

That was like eight years ago. I was trying to think about that.

那好像是八年前的事了。我一直在想這件事

Let's talk about your newest essay on the age of intelligence.

讓我們來談談你關於智能時代的最新論文。

You know, is this the best time ever to be starting a technology company?

現在是創辦科技公司的最佳時機嗎？

Let's at least say it's the best time yet.

至少可以說，現在是最好的時候。

Hopefully there'll be even better times in the future.

I sort of think with each successive major technological revolution, you've been able to do more than you could before.

我認為，隨著每一次重大技術革命的相繼發生，你都能比以前做得更多。

And I would expect the companies to be more amazing and impactful and everything else.

我希望這些公司能夠更加令人驚歎、更有影響力，以及其他一切。

所以是的，我認為現在是最好的時機。

Big companies have the edge when things are like moving slowly and not that dynamic.

當事情發展緩慢、缺乏活力時，大公司就會佔據優勢。

And then when something like this or mobile or the internet or semiconductor revolution happens, or probably like back in the days of the Industrial Revolution, that was when upstarts had their have their edge.

然後，當這樣的事情、移動、互聯網或半導體革命發生時，或者可能就像工業革命時期一樣，那就是後起之秀擁有優勢的時候。

So yeah, this is like and it's been a while since we've had one of these.

是啊，我們已經很久沒有這樣的機會了。

In the essay, you actually say a really big thing, which is ASI, super intelligence, is actually thousands of days away.

在文章中，你實際上說了一件非常大的事情，那就是人工智能，超級智能，實際上還需要幾千天的時間。

Maybe. I mean, that's our hope, our guess, whatever.

也許吧我的意思是，這是我們的希望，我們的猜測，不管是什麼。

I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding.

我可以看到一條道路，我們正在做的工作會不斷複合。

And the rate of progress we've made over the last three years continues for the next three or six or nine or whatever.

我們在過去三年裡取得的進展速度將在未來三年、六年、九年或更長的時間裡繼續保持。

You know, nine years would be like 3,500 days or whatever.

要知道，九年就相當於 3500 天之類的時間。

If we can keep this rate of improvement or even increase it, like that system will be quite capable of doing a lot of things.

如果我們能保持這種改進速度，甚至提高改進速度，那麼這個系統將能做很多事情。

I think already even a system like O1 is capable of doing like quite a lot of things.

我認為，即使是像 O1 這樣的系統，也已經可以做很多事情了。

From just like a raw cognitive IQ on a closed end, well-defined task in a certain area.

就像在某一特定領域的封閉、明確任務上的原始認知智商一樣。

我想，O1 就像一個非常聰明的東西。

And I think we're nowhere near the limit of progress.

我認為，我們還遠遠沒有達到進步的極限。

I mean, that was an architecture shift that sort of unlocked a lot.

我的意思是，這是一次架構轉變，它開啟了很多東西。

And what I'm sort of hearing is that these things are going to compound.

我聽到的說法是，這些事情會越來越複雜。

We could hit some like unexpected wall or we could be missing something.

我們可能會遇到一些意想不到的障礙，也可能是我們遺漏了什麼。

But it looks to us like there's a lot of compounding in front of us still to happen.

但在我們看來，我們面前還有很多事情要做。

I mean, this essay is probably the most techno-optimist of almost anything I've seen out there.

我的意思是，這篇文章可能是我見過的幾乎所有文章中最樂觀的技術文章。

Some of the things we get to look forward to, fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, the discovery of all of physics, near limitless intelligence and abundant energy.

我們所期待的一些事情包括：修復氣候、建立太空殖民地、發現所有物理學、近乎無限的智慧和豐富的能源。

I do think all of those things and probably a lot more we can't even imagine are maybe not that far away.

我確實認為，所有這些事情，也許還有更多我們無法想象的事情，也許離我們並不遙遠。

And one of, and I think it's like tremendously exciting that we can talk about this even semi-seriously now.

其中之一是，我覺得我們現在能半真半假地討論這個問題，實在是太令人興奮了。

One of the things that I always have loved most about YC is it encourages slightly implausible degrees of techno-optimism.

我一直最喜歡 YC 的一點是，它鼓勵人們在技術方面抱有略微難以置信的樂觀態度。

And just a belief that like, ah, you can figure this out.

我只是相信，你能解決這個問題。

And, you know, in a world that I think is like sort of consistently telling people, this is not going to work, you can't do this thing, you can't do that.

而且，你知道，在這個世界上，我認為人們總是在說，這行不通，你不能做這件事，你不能做那件事。

I think the kind of early PG spirit of just encouraging founders to like think a little bit bigger is like, it is a special thing in the world.

我認為，早期 PG 的精神就是鼓勵創始人想得更遠一點，這在世界上是一件很特別的事情。

The abundant energy thing seems like a pretty big deal.

You know, there's sort of path A and path B, you know, if we do achieve abundant energy, it seems like this is a real unlock.

如果我們真的實現了豐富的能源，這似乎是一個真正的解鎖。

Almost any work, not just, you know, knowledge work, but actually like real physical work could be unlocked with robotics and with language and intelligence on tap.

幾乎任何工作，不只是知識工作，而是真正的體力工作，都可以通過機器人技術、語言和智能來實現。

比如，現在是一個真正的富足時代。

I think these are like the key to, the two key inputs to everything else that we want.

我認為這些就像是我們想要的其他一切的關鍵，兩個關鍵輸入。

There's a lot of other stuff, of course, that matters, but the unlock that would happen if we could just get truly abundant intelligence, truly abundant energy, what we'd be able to make happen in the world, like both like come up with better ideas more quickly and then also like make them happen in the physical world, like to say nothing of, it'd be nice to be able to run lots of AI and that takes energy too.

當然，還有很多其他的東西也很重要，但如果我們能夠獲得真正豐富的智能和真正豐富的能源，我們將能夠在世界上實現什麼，比如既能更快地想出更好的主意，又能讓它們在物理世界中實現，比如什麼都不用說，能夠運行大量的人工智能就很好了，這也需要能源。

I think that would be a huge unlock in the fact that it's, I'm not sure whether to be surprised that it's all happening at the same time, or if this is just like the natural effect of an increasing rate of technological progress, but it's certainly a very exciting time to be alive and a great time to do a startup.

我認為，這將是一個巨大的解鎖，我不知道是該驚訝於這一切同時發生，還是這只是技術進步速度不斷加快的自然效應，但這無疑是一個非常令人興奮的時代，也是創業的大好時機。

Well, so we sort of walked through this age of abundance, you know, maybe robots can actually manufacture, do anything.

好吧，我們走過了這個富足的時代，你知道，也許機器人真的可以製造，可以做任何事情。

Almost all physical labor can then result in material progress, not just for the most wealthy, but for everyone.

這樣，幾乎所有的體力勞動都能帶來物質進步，不僅僅是最富有的人，而是每個人。

You know, what happens if we don't unleash unlimited energy?

你知道，如果我們不釋放無限的能量，會發生什麼？

If, you know, there's some physical law that prevents us from exactly that?

如果，你知道，有某種物理定律阻止我們這樣做呢？

Solar plus storage is on a good enough trajectory that even if we don't get a big nuclear breakthrough, we would be like okay-ish.

太陽能加上儲能技術的發展軌跡已經足夠好了，即使我們沒有核電方面的重大突破，我們也不會有太大問題。

But for sure it seems that driving the cost of energy down and the abundance of it up has like a very direct impact on quality of life.

但可以肯定的是，降低能源成本和提高能源供應似乎對生活品質有著非常直接的影響。

And eventually we'll solve every problem in physics, so we're going to figure this out, it's just a question of when.

最終我們會解決物理學中的所有問題，所以我們會解決這個問題的，只是時間問題。

There's, you know, someday we'll be talking not about fusion or whatever, but about the Dyson sphere and that'll be awesome too.

總有一天，我們談論的不是核聚變或其他什麼，而是戴森球，那也會很棒。

This is a point in time, whatever feels like abundant energy to us will feel like not nearly enough to our great-grandchildren.

在這個時間點上，對我們來說感覺充沛的能量，對我們的曾孫來說卻感覺遠遠不夠。

And there's a big universe out there with a lot of matter.

Wanted to switch gears a little bit to sort of, earlier you were mentioning Paul Graham, who brought us all together, really created Y Combinator.

我想轉換一下話題，剛才你提到了保羅-格雷厄姆，是他把我們聚集在一起，真正創建了 Y Combinator。

He likes to tell the story of how, you know, how you got into YC was actually, you were a Stanford freshman.

他喜歡講這樣一個故事，你知道，你是如何進入 YC 的，實際上，你是斯坦福大學的新生。

And he said, you know what, this is the very first YC batch in 2005.

他說，你知道嗎，這是 2005 年的第一批 YC。

And he said, you know what, you're a freshman and YC will still be here next time, you should just wait.

他說，你知道嗎，你是新生，下次 YC 還會在這裡，你應該再等等。

And you said, I'm a sophomore and I'm coming.

你說，我是大二學生，我要來。

And you're widely known in our community as, you know, one of the most formidable people.

你在我們社區廣為人知，你知道，你是最厲害的人之一。

That one story, I think I would happy, I'd be happy if that like drifted off.

那個故事，我想我會很高興，我會很高興，如果它像飄走了一樣。

Well, now it's, it's purely immortalized here.

現在，它純粹在這裡永垂不朽。

My memory of that is that, like, I needed to reschedule an interview one day or something.

在我的記憶中，好像有一天我需要重新安排一次面試什麼的。

And PG tried to, like, say, like, just do it next year or whatever.

PG 想說，明年再做吧，或者其他什麼的。

And then I think I said some nicer version of, I'm a sophomore and I'm coming.

然後我想我說了一些更動聽的話："我是大二學生，我來了。

But yeah, you know, these things get slightly apocryphal.

不過，你也知道，這些事情都有點匪夷所思。

It's funny, I don't, and I say this with no false modesty, I don't like identify as a formidable person at all.

有趣的是，我不喜歡，我這樣說並不是虛偽的謙虛，我一點也不喜歡把自己定位成一個強大的人。

In fact, I think there's a lot of ways in which I'm really not.

事實上，我覺得在很多方面我都不是。

I do have a little bit of a, just like, I don't see why things have to be the way they are.

我確實有一點，就像，我不明白為什麼事情非得這樣不可。

And so I'm just going to, like, do this thing that from first principles seems like fine.

所以，我就去做這件事，從最初的原則來看，似乎沒什麼問題。

And I always felt a little bit weird about that.

And then I remember one of the things I thought was so great about YC, and still that I care so much about YC, is it was like a collection of the weird people who are just like, I'm just going to do my thing.

我還記得，我認為 YC 最棒的一點，也是我現在仍然如此關注 YC 的一點，就是它就像一個怪人的集合體，他們就像，我只是要做我自己的事情。

The part of this that does resonate as a, like, accurate self-identity thing is,

這其中能引起共鳴的部分是：準確的自我認同、

I do think you can just do stuff or try stuff a surprising amount of the time.

我確實認為，在很多時候，你可以做一些事情或嘗試一些事情。

And I think more of that is a good thing.

And then I think one of the things that both of us found at YC was a bunch of people who all believed that you could just do stuff.

然後，我覺得我們倆在 YC 發現的一件事是，有一群人都相信你可以做一些事情。

For a long time, when I was trying to, like, figure out what made YC so special,

在很長一段時間裡，當我試圖弄清 YC 為何如此與眾不同時、

I thought that it was like, okay, you have this, like, very amazing person telling you you can do stuff I believe in you.

我覺得這就像，好吧，你有一個非常了不起的人告訴你，你能做到，我相信你。

字幕列表影片播放

如何創造未來薩姆-奧特曼 (How To Build The Future: Sam Altman)

stuff

sort

incredible

bunch