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  • We said from the very beginning we were going to go after AGI at a time when, in the field, you weren't allowed to say that.

    我們從一開始就說,我們要追尋 AGI,而當時在這個領域,你還不能這麼說。

  • Because that just seemed impossibly crazy.

    因為這似乎太瘋狂了。

  • I remember a rash of criticism for you guys at that moment.

    我記得那一刻,對你們的責備聲此起彼伏。

  • We really wanted to push on that, and we were far less resourced than DeepMind and others.

    我們真的很想推動這項工作,但我們的資源遠遠比不上 DeepMind 和其他公司。

  • And so we said, okay, they're going to try a lot of things, and we've just got to pick one and really concentrate, and that's how we can win here.

    於是我們說,好吧,他們會嘗試很多方法,我們只需選擇一種,集中精力,這樣就能贏了。

  • Most of the world still does not understand the value of a fairly extreme level of conviction on one bet.

    世界上大多數人仍然不明白,對一次下注抱有相當極端的信念有多重要。

  • That's why I'm so excited for startups right now.

    這就是為什麼我現在對初創企業感到如此興奮。

  • It is because the world is still sleeping on all of this to such an astonishing degree.

    這是因為世界還在沉睡,沉睡的程度令人震驚。

  • We have a real treat for you today.

    我們今天為您準備了一份大禮。

  • Sam Altman, thanks for joining us.

    薩姆-奧特曼,感謝您接受我們的採訪。

  • Thanks, Gary.

    謝謝你,加里。

  • This is actually a reboot of your series, How to Build the Future.

    這實際上是你的系列文章《如何創造未來》的重啟。

  • And so welcome back to the series that you started.

    歡迎回到你開始的這個系列。

  • That was like eight years ago. I was trying to think about that.

    那好像是八年前的事了。我一直在想這件事

  • Yeah, that's wild.

    是啊,太瘋狂了。

  • I'm glad it's being rebooted.

    我很高興它能重新啟動。

  • That's right.

    這就對了。

  • Let's talk about your newest essay on the age of intelligence.

    讓我們來談談你關於智能時代的最新論文。

  • You know, is this the best time ever to be starting a technology company?

    現在是創辦科技公司的最佳時機嗎?

  • Let's at least say it's the best time yet.

    至少可以說,現在是最好的時候。

  • Hopefully there'll be even better times in the future.

    希望未來會有更美好的時光。

  • I sort of think with each successive major technological revolution, you've been able to do more than you could before.

    我認為,隨著每一次重大技術革命的相繼發生,你都能比以前做得更多。

  • And I would expect the companies to be more amazing and impactful and everything else.

    我希望這些公司能夠更加令人驚歎、更有影響力,以及其他一切。

  • So yeah, I think it's the best time yet.

    所以是的,我認為現在是最好的時機。

  • Big companies have the edge when things are like moving slowly and not that dynamic.

    當事情發展緩慢、缺乏活力時,大公司就會佔據優勢。

  • And then when something like this or mobile or the internet or semiconductor revolution happens, or probably like back in the days of the Industrial Revolution, that was when upstarts had their have their edge.

    然後,當這樣的事情、移動、互聯網或半導體革命發生時,或者可能就像工業革命時期一樣,那就是後起之秀擁有優勢的時候。

  • So yeah, this is like and it's been a while since we've had one of these.

    是啊,我們已經很久沒有這樣的機會了。

  • So this is like pretty exciting.

    這真是令人興奮。

  • In the essay, you actually say a really big thing, which is ASI, super intelligence, is actually thousands of days away.

    在文章中,你實際上說了一件非常大的事情,那就是人工智能,超級智能,實際上還需要幾千天的時間。

  • Maybe. I mean, that's our hope, our guess, whatever.

    也許吧我的意思是,這是我們的希望,我們的猜測,不管是什麼。

  • But that's a very wild statement.

    但這種說法太誇張了。

  • Yeah. Tell us about it.

    說來聽聽跟我們說說吧

  • I mean, that's big.

    我的意思是,這是很大的。

  • That is really big.

    這真的很大。

  • I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding.

    我可以看到一條道路,我們正在做的工作會不斷複合。

  • And the rate of progress we've made over the last three years continues for the next three or six or nine or whatever.

    我們在過去三年裡取得的進展速度將在未來三年、六年、九年或更長的時間裡繼續保持。

  • You know, nine years would be like 3,500 days or whatever.

    要知道,九年就相當於 3500 天之類的時間。

  • If we can keep this rate of improvement or even increase it, like that system will be quite capable of doing a lot of things.

    如果我們能保持這種改進速度,甚至提高改進速度,那麼這個系統將能做很多事情。

  • I think already even a system like O1 is capable of doing like quite a lot of things.

    我認為,即使是像 O1 這樣的系統,也已經可以做很多事情了。

  • From just like a raw cognitive IQ on a closed end, well-defined task in a certain area.

    就像在某一特定領域的封閉、明確任務上的原始認知智商一樣。

  • I'm like, O1 is like a very smart thing.

    我想,O1 就像一個非常聰明的東西。

  • And I think we're nowhere near the limit of progress.

    我認為,我們還遠遠沒有達到進步的極限。

  • I mean, that was an architecture shift that sort of unlocked a lot.

    我的意思是,這是一次架構轉變,它開啟了很多東西。

  • And what I'm sort of hearing is that these things are going to compound.

    我聽到的說法是,這些事情會越來越複雜。

  • We could hit some like unexpected wall or we could be missing something.

    我們可能會遇到一些意想不到的障礙,也可能是我們遺漏了什麼。

  • But it looks to us like there's a lot of compounding in front of us still to happen.

    但在我們看來,我們面前還有很多事情要做。

  • I mean, this essay is probably the most techno-optimist of almost anything I've seen out there.

    我的意思是,這篇文章可能是我見過的幾乎所有文章中最樂觀的技術文章。

  • Some of the things we get to look forward to, fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, the discovery of all of physics, near limitless intelligence and abundant energy.

    我們所期待的一些事情包括:修復氣候、建立太空殖民地、發現所有物理學、近乎無限的智慧和豐富的能源。

  • I do think all of those things and probably a lot more we can't even imagine are maybe not that far away.

    我確實認為,所有這些事情,也許還有更多我們無法想象的事情,也許離我們並不遙遠。

  • And one of, and I think it's like tremendously exciting that we can talk about this even semi-seriously now.

    其中之一是,我覺得我們現在能半真半假地討論這個問題,實在是太令人興奮了。

  • One of the things that I always have loved most about YC is it encourages slightly implausible degrees of techno-optimism.

    我一直最喜歡 YC 的一點是,它鼓勵人們在技術方面抱有略微難以置信的樂觀態度。

  • And just a belief that like, ah, you can figure this out.

    我只是相信,你能解決這個問題。

  • And, you know, in a world that I think is like sort of consistently telling people, this is not going to work, you can't do this thing, you can't do that.

    而且,你知道,在這個世界上,我認為人們總是在說,這行不通,你不能做這件事,你不能做那件事。

  • I think the kind of early PG spirit of just encouraging founders to like think a little bit bigger is like, it is a special thing in the world.

    我認為,早期 PG 的精神就是鼓勵創始人想得更遠一點,這在世界上是一件很特別的事情。

  • The abundant energy thing seems like a pretty big deal.

    豐富的能源似乎是件大事。

  • You know, there's sort of path A and path B, you know, if we do achieve abundant energy, it seems like this is a real unlock.

    如果我們真的實現了豐富的能源,這似乎是一個真正的解鎖。

  • Almost any work, not just, you know, knowledge work, but actually like real physical work could be unlocked with robotics and with language and intelligence on tap.

    幾乎任何工作,不只是知識工作,而是真正的體力工作,都可以通過機器人技術、語言和智能來實現。

  • Like, there's a real age of abundance.

    比如,現在是一個真正的富足時代。

  • I think these are like the key to, the two key inputs to everything else that we want.

    我認為這些就像是我們想要的其他一切的關鍵,兩個關鍵輸入。

  • There's a lot of other stuff, of course, that matters, but the unlock that would happen if we could just get truly abundant intelligence, truly abundant energy, what we'd be able to make happen in the world, like both like come up with better ideas more quickly and then also like make them happen in the physical world, like to say nothing of, it'd be nice to be able to run lots of AI and that takes energy too.

    當然,還有很多其他的東西也很重要,但如果我們能夠獲得真正豐富的智能和真正豐富的能源,我們將能夠在世界上實現什麼,比如既能更快地想出更好的主意,又能讓它們在物理世界中實現,比如什麼都不用說,能夠運行大量的人工智能就很好了,這也需要能源。

  • I think that would be a huge unlock in the fact that it's, I'm not sure whether to be surprised that it's all happening at the same time, or if this is just like the natural effect of an increasing rate of technological progress, but it's certainly a very exciting time to be alive and a great time to do a startup.

    我認為,這將是一個巨大的解鎖,我不知道是該驚訝於這一切同時發生,還是這只是技術進步速度不斷加快的自然效應,但這無疑是一個非常令人興奮的時代,也是創業的大好時機。

  • Well, so we sort of walked through this age of abundance, you know, maybe robots can actually manufacture, do anything.

    好吧,我們走過了這個富足的時代,你知道,也許機器人真的可以製造,可以做任何事情。

  • Almost all physical labor can then result in material progress, not just for the most wealthy, but for everyone.

    這樣,幾乎所有的體力勞動都能帶來物質進步,不僅僅是最富有的人,而是每個人。

  • You know, what happens if we don't unleash unlimited energy?

    你知道,如果我們不釋放無限的能量,會發生什麼?

  • If, you know, there's some physical law that prevents us from exactly that?

    如果,你知道,有某種物理定律阻止我們這樣做呢?

  • Solar plus storage is on a good enough trajectory that even if we don't get a big nuclear breakthrough, we would be like okay-ish.

    太陽能加上儲能技術的發展軌跡已經足夠好了,即使我們沒有核電方面的重大突破,我們也不會有太大問題。

  • But for sure it seems that driving the cost of energy down and the abundance of it up has like a very direct impact on quality of life.

    但可以肯定的是,降低能源成本和提高能源供應似乎對生活品質有著非常直接的影響。

  • And eventually we'll solve every problem in physics, so we're going to figure this out, it's just a question of when.

    最終我們會解決物理學中的所有問題,所以我們會解決這個問題的,只是時間問題。

  • And we deserve it.

    這是我們應得的。

  • There's, you know, someday we'll be talking not about fusion or whatever, but about the Dyson sphere and that'll be awesome too.

    總有一天,我們談論的不是核聚變或其他什麼,而是戴森球,那也會很棒。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • This is a point in time, whatever feels like abundant energy to us will feel like not nearly enough to our great-grandchildren.

    在這個時間點上,對我們來說感覺充沛的能量,對我們的曾孫來說卻感覺遠遠不夠。

  • And there's a big universe out there with a lot of matter.

    宇宙之大,物質之多。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Wanted to switch gears a little bit to sort of, earlier you were mentioning Paul Graham, who brought us all together, really created Y Combinator.

    我想轉換一下話題,剛才你提到了保羅-格雷厄姆,是他把我們聚集在一起,真正創建了 Y Combinator。

  • He likes to tell the story of how, you know, how you got into YC was actually, you were a Stanford freshman.

    他喜歡講這樣一個故事,你知道,你是如何進入 YC 的,實際上,你是斯坦福大學的新生。

  • And he said, you know what, this is the very first YC batch in 2005.

    他說,你知道嗎,這是 2005 年的第一批 YC。

  • And he said, you know what, you're a freshman and YC will still be here next time, you should just wait.

    他說,你知道嗎,你是新生,下次 YC 還會在這裡,你應該再等等。

  • And you said, I'm a sophomore and I'm coming.

    你說,我是大二學生,我要來。

  • And you're widely known in our community as, you know, one of the most formidable people.

    你在我們社區廣為人知,你知道,你是最厲害的人之一。

  • Where do you think that came from?

    你認為這是從哪裡來的?

  • That one story, I think I would happy, I'd be happy if that like drifted off.

    那個故事,我想我會很高興,我會很高興,如果它像飄走了一樣。

  • Well, now it's, it's purely immortalized here.

    現在,它純粹在這裡永垂不朽。

  • Here it is.

    就是這裡。

  • My memory of that is that, like, I needed to reschedule an interview one day or something.

    在我的記憶中,好像有一天我需要重新安排一次面試什麼的。

  • And PG tried to, like, say, like, just do it next year or whatever.

    PG 想說,明年再做吧,或者其他什麼的。

  • And then I think I said some nicer version of, I'm a sophomore and I'm coming.

    然後我想我說了一些更動聽的話:"我是大二學生,我來了。

  • But yeah, you know, these things get slightly apocryphal.

    不過,你也知道,這些事情都有點匪夷所思。

  • It's funny, I don't, and I say this with no false modesty, I don't like identify as a formidable person at all.

    有趣的是,我不喜歡,我這樣說並不是虛偽的謙虛,我一點也不喜歡把自己定位成一個強大的人。

  • In fact, I think there's a lot of ways in which I'm really not.

    事實上,我覺得在很多方面我都不是。

  • I do have a little bit of a, just like, I don't see why things have to be the way they are.

    我確實有一點,就像,我不明白為什麼事情非得這樣不可。

  • And so I'm just going to, like, do this thing that from first principles seems like fine.

    所以,我就去做這件事,從最初的原則來看,似乎沒什麼問題。

  • And I always felt a little bit weird about that.

    我總覺得有點怪怪的。

  • And then I remember one of the things I thought was so great about YC, and still that I care so much about YC, is it was like a collection of the weird people who are just like, I'm just going to do my thing.

    我還記得,我認為 YC 最棒的一點,也是我現在仍然如此關注 YC 的一點,就是它就像一個怪人的集合體,他們就像,我只是要做我自己的事情。

  • The part of this that does resonate as a, like, accurate self-identity thing is,

    這其中能引起共鳴的部分是:準確的自我認同、

  • I do think you can just do stuff or try stuff a surprising amount of the time.

    我確實認為,在很多時候,你可以做一些事情或嘗試一些事情。

  • And I think more of that is a good thing.

    我認為這是件好事。

  • And then I think one of the things that both of us found at YC was a bunch of people who all believed that you could just do stuff.

    然後,我覺得我們倆在 YC 發現的一件事是,有一群人都相信你可以做一些事情。

  • For a long time, when I was trying to, like, figure out what made YC so special,

    在很長一段時間裡,當我試圖弄清 YC 為何如此與眾不同時、

  • I thought that it was like, okay, you have this, like, very amazing person telling you you can do stuff I believe in you.

    我覺得這就像,好吧,你有一個非常了不起的人告訴你,你能做到,我相信你。

  • And as a young founder, that felt so special and inspiring.

    作為一名年輕的創始人,這種感覺是如此特別和鼓舞人心。

  • Of course it is.

    當然是這樣。

  • But the thing that I didn't understand until much later was it was the peer group of other people doing that.

    但我直到很久以後才明白,這是同齡人在做的事情。

  • And one of the biggest pieces of advice I would give to young people now is finding that peer group as early as you can was so important to me.

    我現在要給年輕人的最大建議之一就是,儘早找到同齡人群體,這對我來說非常重要。

  • And I didn't realize it was something that mattered.

    我並沒有意識到這是一件很重要的事情。

  • I kind of thought, ah, like, I have, you know, I'll figure it out on my own.

    我有點想,啊,就像,我有,你知道,我會自己想辦法的。

  • But, man, being around, like, inspiring peers, so, so valuable.

    但是,與鼓舞人心的同齡人在一起,真的太寶貴了。

  • What's funny is both of us did spend time at Stanford.

    有趣的是,我們倆都在斯坦福大學待過。

  • I actually did graduate, which is, I probably shouldn't have done that, but I did.

    我真的畢業了,也許我不應該這麼做,但我做到了。

  • You pursued the path of, you know, far greater return by dropping out.

    你選擇了退學這條回報率更高的道路。

  • But, you know, that was a community that purportedly had a lot of these characteristics.

    但是,你知道,那是一個據稱具有很多這些特徵的社區。

  • But I was still beyond surprised at how much more potent it was with a room full of founders.

    但讓我感到驚訝的是,在滿屋子的創始人面前,它的效力竟然如此之大。

  • It was, I was just going to say the same thing.

    是的,我正想說同樣的話。

  • Actually, I liked Stanford a lot, but I was, I did not feel surrounded by people that made me, like, want to be better and more ambitious and whatever else.

    事實上,我非常喜歡斯坦福大學,但我並不覺得周圍的人能讓我變得更好、更有抱負,以及其他什麼的。

  • And to the degree I did, the thing you were competing with your peers on was, like, who was going to get the internship at which investment bank?

    就我而言,你和你的同齡人競爭的是,比如,誰能得到哪家投資銀行的實習機會?

  • Which I'm embarrassed to say, I fell in that trap.

    說來慚愧,我也中了這個圈套。

  • This is, like, how powerful peer groups are.

    這就是同齡人群體的力量。

  • It's a very easy decision to not go back to school after, like, seeing what the, like, YC vibe was like.

    在看到 YC 的氛圍之後,我很容易就決定不再回學校了。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • There's a powerful quote by Carl Jung that I really love.

    卡爾-榮格(Carl Jung)有一句話很有力量,我非常喜歡。

  • It's, you know, the world will come and ask you who you are, and if you don't know, it will tell you.

    你知道,這個世界會來問你是誰,如果你不知道,它就會告訴你。

  • It sounds like being very intentional about who you want to be and who you want to be around as early as possible is very important.

    聽起來,儘早明確自己想成為什麼樣的人,想和什麼樣的人在一起是非常重要的。

  • Yeah, this was definitely one of my takeaways, at least for myself, is you, no one is immune to peer pressure.

    是啊,這絕對是我的收穫之一,至少對我自己來說,是你,沒有人能夠免受同伴壓力的影響。

  • And so all you can do is, like, pick good peers.

    是以,你所能做的就是,選擇好的同行。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Obviously, you know, you went on to create Looped, you know, sell that, go to Green Dot.

    很顯然,你繼續創作了《Looped》,你知道,把它賣掉,去了綠點公司。

  • And then we ended up getting to work together at YC.

    最後我們在 YC 一起工作。

  • Talk to me about, like, the early days of YC research.

    跟我說說早期的青委會研究吧。

  • Like, one of the really cool things that you brought to YC was this experimentation.

    比如,你給 YC 帶來的很酷的東西之一就是這種實驗。

  • And you sort of, I mean, I remember you coming back to partner rooms and talking about some of the rooms that you were getting to sit in with, like, the Larry and Sergeys of the world.

    而你,我是說,我記得你回到合夥人的房間,談論一些你能和世界上的拉里和謝爾蓋坐在一起的房間。

  • And that, you know, AI was sort of at the tip of everyone's tongue because it felt so close.

    你知道,人工智能就在每個人的舌尖上,因為它離我們如此之近。

  • And yet it was, you know, that was 10 years ago.

    然而,你知道,那是 10 年前的事了。

  • The thing I always thought would be the coolest retirement job was to get to, like, run a research lab.

    我一直認為退休後最酷的工作就是管理一個研究實驗室。

  • And it was not specific to AI at that time.

    而且當時並不是專門針對人工智能的。

  • When we started talking about YC research, well, not only was it going to, it did end up funding, like, a bunch of different efforts.

    當我們開始討論青委會的研究時,它不僅會,而且最終還資助了很多不同的工作。

  • And I wish I could tell the story of, like, if it was obvious that AI was going to work and be the thing.

    我希望我能講一個故事,比如,如果人工智能很明顯會成功併成為一種東西。

  • But, like, we tried a lot of bad things, too, around that time.

    不過,在那段時間,我們也嘗試了很多糟糕的事情。

  • I read a few books on, like, the history of Xerox Park and Bell Labs and stuff.

    我讀了幾本關於施樂公園和貝爾實驗室歷史之類的書。

  • And I think there were a lot of people, like, it was in the air of Silicon Valley at the time that we need to, like, have good research labs again.

    我認為,當時硅谷有很多人都認為,我們需要重新建立良好的研究實驗室。

  • And I just thought it would be so cool to do.

    我只是覺得這樣做很酷。

  • And it was sort of similar to what YC does in that you're going to, like, allocate capital to smart people.

    這有點類似於 YC 的做法,即把資金分配給聰明人。

  • And sometimes it's going to work and sometimes it's not going to.

    有時可行,有時不可行。

  • And I just wanted to try it.

    我只是想試一試。

  • AI for sure was having a mini moment.

    人工智能肯定正在經歷一個迷你時刻。

  • This was, like, kind of late 2014, 2015, early 2016 was, like, this superintelligence discussion, like, the book Superintelligence was happening.

    那是2014年底、2015年、2016年初的事了,當時正在討論超級智能,比如《超級智能》這本書。

  • Both strung me up.

    兩個人都把我吊了起來。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • The DeepMind had had a few, like, impressive results, but a little bit of a different direction.

    DeepMind 取得了一些令人印象深刻的成果,但方向有點不同。

  • You know, I had been an AI nerd forever.

    要知道,我一直是個人工智能書呆子。

  • So I was like, oh, it'd be so cool to try to do something.

    所以我就想,哦,如果能嘗試做點什麼,那一定很酷。

  • But it was very hard to say.

    但這很難說。

  • Was ImageNet out yet?

    ImageNet 推出了嗎?

  • ImageNet was out.

    ImageNet 被淘汰。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • For a while at that point.

    當時有一段時間。

  • So you could tell if it was a hot dog or not.

    這樣你就能分辨出它是不是熱狗了。

  • You could sometimes.

    有時你可以

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • That was getting there.

    這已經很不錯了。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • You know, how did you identify the initial people you wanted involved in, you know, YC research and OpenAI?

    你是如何確定你希望參與YC研究和OpenAI的最初人選的?

  • I mean, Greg Brockman was early.

    我是說,格雷格-布羅克曼來早了。

  • In retrospect, it feels like this movie montage.

    現在回想起來,感覺就像這部電影的蒙太奇。

  • And there were, like, all of these, like, you know, at the beginning of, like, the Bank Heist movie when you're, like, driving around to find the people and whatever.

    在《銀行大劫案》電影的開頭,你開車到處找人什麼的。

  • And they're like, you son of a bitch.

    他們就會說,你這個狗孃養的。

  • I'm in.

    我加入

  • Right.

  • Like, Ilya, I, like, heard he was really smart.

    伊利亞,我聽說他很聰明。

  • And then I watched some video of his.

    然後我看了一些他的視頻。

  • And he's extremely smart.

    他非常聰明。

  • Like, true, true, genuine genius and visionary.

    就像,真正的、真正的、真正的天才和遠見卓識。

  • But also, he has this incredible presence.

    此外,他還擁有令人難以置信的影響力。

  • And so I watched this video of his on YouTube or something.

    於是我在YouTube上看了他的這段視頻。

  • I was like, I got to meet that guy.

    我當時想,我一定要見見那個人。

  • And I emailed him.

    我給他發了電子郵件。

  • He didn't respond.

    他沒有迴應。

  • So I just, like, went to some conference he was speaking at.

    所以我就去了他演講的某個會議。

  • And we met up.

    我們見面了

  • And then after that, we started talking a bunch.

    之後,我們開始聊了很多。

  • And then, like, Greg, I had known a little bit from the early Stripe days.

    然後,就像格雷格一樣,我在 Stripe 早期的時候就對他有所瞭解。

  • What was that conversation like, though?

    那次談話是什麼樣的?

  • It's like, I really like what your idea is about AI.

    我很喜歡你關於人工智能的想法。

  • And I want to start a lab.

    我還想開一個實驗室。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And one of the things that worked really well in retrospect was we said from the very beginning we were going to go after AGI at a time when, in the field, you weren't allowed to say that because that just seemed impossibly crazy and, you know, borderline irresponsible to talk about.

    現在回想起來,有一件事做得非常好,那就是我們從一開始就說,我們要追尋 AGI,而當時在這個領域,你是不允許這麼說的,因為這似乎是不可能的瘋狂,你知道,談論這個話題是不負責任的。

  • So that got his attention immediately.

    是以,這立即引起了他的注意。

  • It got all of the good young people's attention and the derision, derision, whatever that word is, of the mediocre old people.

    它得到了所有優秀年輕人的關注,也得到了平庸老人的嘲笑、揶揄,不管這個詞是什麼意思。

  • And I felt like somehow that was, like, a really good sign and really powerful.

    我覺得這是一個非常好的信號,非常有力量。

  • And we were, like, this ragtag group of people.

    我們就是這樣一群人。

  • I mean, I was the oldest by a decent amount.

    我的意思是,我是年齡最大的。

  • I was, like, I guess I was 30 then.

    那時我大概 30 歲。

  • And so you had, like, these people who were, like, those are these irresponsible young kids who don't know anything by anything.

    於是就有了這些人,這些不負責任的年輕人,他們什麼都不懂。

  • And they're, like, saying these ridiculous things.

    他們就像,說著這些荒唐的事情。

  • And the people who that was really appealing to, I guess, are the same kind of people who would have said, like, it's a, you know, I'm a sophomore and I'm coming or whatever.

    我想,這對那些真正有吸引力的人來說,也就是那些會說,這是一個,你知道,我是一個大二學生,我要來或者其他什麼的人。

  • And they were, like, let's just do this thing.

    他們想,我們就做這件事吧。

  • Let's take a run at it.

    讓我們試一試。

  • And so we kind of went around and met people one by one and then in different configurations of groups.

    我們就這樣走來走去,一個接一個地與人見面,然後組成不同的小組。

  • And it kind of came together over the course of, in fits and starts, but over the course of, like, nine months.

    在九個月的時間裡,我們的工作有條不紊地進行著。

  • And then it started, I mean.

    然後就開始了

  • And then it started.

    然後就開始了。

  • It started happening.

    開始發生了。

  • And one of my favorite, like, memories of all of OpenAI was Ilya had some reason that with Google or something that we couldn't start in.

    在 OpenAI 的所有工作中,我最喜歡的回憶之一就是伊利亞出於某種原因,不能從谷歌或其他公司開始。

  • We announced in December of 2015, but we couldn't start until January of 2016.

    我們在 2015 年 12 月宣佈了這一計劃,但直到 2016 年 1 月才得以啟動。

  • So, like, January 3rd, something like that of 2016, like very early in the month, people come back from the holidays.

    是以,比如 2016 年 1 月 3 日之類的日子,比如這個月的月初,人們從假期回來。

  • And we go to Greg's apartment.

    我們去格雷格的公寓

  • Maybe there's 10 of us, something like that.

    也許我們有 10 個人,差不多吧。

  • And we sit around.

    我們坐在一起

  • And it felt like we had done this monumental thing to get it started.

    感覺就像我們做了一件不朽的事情,讓它開始了。

  • And everyone's like, so what do we do now?

    每個人都在想,我們現在該怎麼辦?

  • What a great moment.

    多麼偉大的時刻

  • It reminded me of when startup founders work really hard to, like, raise a round.

    這讓我想起了初創公司的創始人為了融資而努力工作的情景。

  • And they think, like, oh, I accomplished this.

    他們會想,哦,我做到了。

  • We did it.

    我們做到了

  • We did it.

    我們做到了

  • And then you sit down and say, like, fuck, now we got to, like, figure out what we're going to do.

    然後你坐下來,說,媽的,現在我們得想想該怎麼辦。

  • It's not time for popping champagne.

    現在還不是開香檳的時候。

  • That was actually the starting gun.

    這其實就是發令槍。

  • And now we got to run.

    現在我們得跑了

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And you have no idea how hard the race is going to be.

    你根本不知道比賽會有多難。

  • It took us a long time to figure out what we're going to do.

    我們花了很長時間才想出該怎麼做。

  • But one of the things that I'm really amazingly impressed by, Ilya in particular, but really all of the early people about, is although it took a lot of twists and turns to get here, the big picture of the original ideas was just so incredibly right.

    但讓我印象深刻的一件事是,伊利亞,尤其是所有早期的人,雖然歷經曲折才走到今天,但最初想法的大局觀是如此令人難以置信地正確。

  • And so they were, like, up on, like, one of those flip charts or whiteboards, I don't remember which, in Greg's apartment.

    他們就在格雷格公寓裡的掛圖或白板上 我不記得是哪個了

  • And then we went off and, you know, did some other things that worked or didn't work or whatever.

    然後,我們又去做了一些其他的事情,你知道,有的成功了,有的失敗了,或者其他什麼的。

  • And some of them did.

    其中一些人確實這樣做了。

  • And eventually now we have this, like, system.

    最終,我們有了這個系統。

  • And it feels very crazy and very improbable looking backwards that we went from there to here with so many detours on the way, but got where we were pointed.

    我們從那裡走到這裡,一路上走了很多彎路,但最終還是到達了目的地,回想起來感覺非常瘋狂,也非常不可能。

  • Was deep learning even on that flip chart initially?

    深度學習最初出現在掛圖上嗎?

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • I mean, more specifically than that, like, do a big unsupervised model and then solve RL was on that flip chart.

    我的意思是,比這更具體,比如,做一個大型無監督模型,然後解決掛圖上的 RL 問題。

  • One of the flip charts from a very, this is before Greg's apartment, but from a very early offsite, I think this is right.

    其中一張掛圖是在格雷格的公寓之前製作的,但我認為這是非常早期的場外活動中製作的。

  • I believe there were three goals for the effort at the time.

    我相信當時的努力有三個目標。

  • It was, like, figure out how to do unsupervised learning, solve RL, and never get more than 120 people.

    這就好比,要想辦法進行無監督學習,解決 RL 問題,而且人數永遠不會超過 120 人。

  • Missed on the third one, but the, like, the predictive direction of the first two is pretty good.

    錯過了第三部,但前兩部的預測方向還不錯。

  • So deep learning.

    深度學習

  • Then the second big one sounded like scaling, like the idea that you could scale.

    然後,第二個大問題聽起來像是 "擴展",像是 "你可以擴展 "的想法。

  • That was another heretical idea that people actually found even offensive.

    這是另一種異端思想,人們甚至覺得它令人反感。

  • I remember a rash of criticism for you guys at that moment.

    我記得那一刻,對你們的責備聲此起彼伏。

  • When we started, yeah, the core beliefs were deep learning works and it gets better with scale.

    我們剛起步時,核心理念是深度學習有效,而且隨著規模的擴大,效果會越來越好。

  • And I think those were both somewhat heretical beliefs.

    我認為這兩種信仰都有些異端。

  • At the time, we didn't know how predictably better it got with scale.

    當時,我們還不知道規模越大,效果越好。

  • That didn't come for a few years later.

    那是幾年後的事了。

  • It was a hunch first and then you got the data to show how predictable it was.

    這首先是一種直覺,然後你得到了數據來證明它的可預測性。

  • But people already knew that if you made these neural networks bigger, they got better.

    但人們已經知道,如果把這些神經網絡做大,它們就會變得更好。

  • Like, that was, we were sure of that before we started.

    就像,那是,我們在開始之前就確定的。

  • And what took the, like, word that keeps coming to mind is, like, religious level of belief was that that wasn't going to stop.

    我腦海中不斷浮現出一個詞,那就是宗教信仰,認為這種情況不會停止。

  • Everybody had some reason of, oh, it's not really learning.

    每個人都有理由說,哦,這不是真正的學習。

  • It's not really reasoning.

    這不是真正的推理。

  • It can't really do this.

    它真的做不到這一點。

  • It's, you know, it's like a parlor trick.

    你知道,這就像一個小把戲。

  • And these were, like, the eminent leaders of the field.

    這些都是該領域的傑出領袖。

  • And more than just saying, you're wrong, they were like, you're wrong.

    他們不僅說 "你錯了",還說 "你錯了"。

  • And this is, like, a bad thing to believe or a bad thing to say.

    而這,就像是,一件不該相信或不該說的事。

  • It was that there's got to, you know, this is like, you're going to perpetuate an AI winter.

    這就好比,你會讓人工智能的冬天持續下去。

  • You're going to do this.

    你要這麼做

  • You're going to do that.

    你要這麼做

  • And we were just, like, looking at these results and saying, they keep getting better.

    我們就這樣,看著這些結果說,它們越來越好了。

  • Then we got the scaling results.

    然後,我們得到了縮放結果。

  • It just kind of breaks my intuition, even now.

    即使是現在,這也會打破我的直覺。

  • And at some point, you have to just look at the scaling loss and say, we're going to keep doing this.

    到了某個時候,你就必須看到損失的規模,然後說,我們要繼續這樣做。

  • And this is what we think it'll do.

    這就是我們認為它能做到的。

  • And it also, it was starting to feel at that time like something about deep learning was just this emergent phenomenon that was really important.

    而且,當時人們開始覺得,深度學習是一種非常重要的新興現象。

  • And even if we didn't understand all of the details in practice yet, which obviously we didn't and still don't, that there was something really fundamental going on.

    即使我們在實踐中還不瞭解所有細節,顯然我們過去不了解,現在也不瞭解,但這裡面確實有一些根本性的東西。

  • It was the pgism for this as we had, like, discovered a new square in the periodic table.

    因為我們在元素週期表中發現了一個新的方格。

  • And so we just, we really wanted to push on that.

    是以,我們真的很想推動這項工作。

  • And we were far less resourced than DeepMind and others.

    而且,我們的資源比 DeepMind 和其他公司少得多。

  • And so we said, okay, they're going to try a lot of things.

    於是我們說,好吧,他們會嘗試很多東西。

  • And we've just got to pick one and really concentrate.

    我們只需選擇一個,然後集中精力。

  • And that's how we can win here, which is totally the right startup takeaway.

    這就是我們的制勝之道,也是初創企業的正確啟示。

  • And so we said, well, we don't know what we don't know.

    於是我們說,好吧,我們不知道我們不知道什麼。

  • We do know this one thing works.

    我們知道有一件事是有效的。

  • So we're going to really concentrate on that.

    是以,我們要把精力集中在這一點上。

  • And I think some of the other efforts were trying to outsmart themselves in too many ways.

    我認為其他一些努力在很多方面都在試圖超越自我。

  • And we just said, we'll just, we'll do the thing in front of us and keep pushing on it.

    我們就說,我們就做眼前的事,繼續努力。

  • Scale is this thing that I've always been interested in, at kind of just the emergent properties of scale for everything.

    規模是我一直很感興趣的東西,也是萬事萬物都會出現的規模特性。

  • For startups, turns out for deep learning models, for a lot of other things.

    對於初創企業來說,深度學習模型和其他很多東西都是如此。

  • I think it's a very underappreciated property and thing to go after.

    我認為,這是一個非常不被重視的財產,也是一個值得追求的東西。

  • And I think it's, you know, when in doubt, if you have something that seems like it's getting better with scale, I think you should scale it up.

    我認為,在有疑問的時候,如果你的東西看起來隨著規模的擴大而變得更好,我認為你應該擴大它的規模。

  • I think people want things to be, you know, less is more.

    我認為人們希望事情,你知道,少即是多。

  • But actually, more is more.

    但實際上,多多益善。

  • More is more.

    越多越好。

  • We believed in that.

    我們對此深信不疑。

  • We wanted to push on it.

    我們想繼續推進。

  • I think one thing that is not maybe that well understood about OpenAI is we had just this, even when we were like pretty unknown, we had a crazy talented team of researchers.

    我認為,關於 OpenAI,有一件事也許並不那麼為人所知,那就是我們擁有這樣一個團隊,即使在我們默默無聞的時候,我們也擁有一支才華橫溢的研究團隊。

  • You know, if you have like the smartest people in the world, you can push on something really hard.

    要知道,如果你擁有世界上最聰明的人,你就能推動一些非常困難的事情。

  • Yeah, and they're motivated.

    是的,而且他們有動力。

  • And or you created sort of one of the sole places in the world where they could do that.

    或者說,你創造了世界上唯一一個可以讓他們這樣做的地方。

  • Like one of the stories I heard is just even getting access to compute resources, even today, is this crazy thing.

    我聽到的一個故事是,即使在今天,獲得計算資源也是一件非常瘋狂的事情。

  • And embedded in some of the criticism from maybe the elders of the industry at the moment was sort of that, you know, you're going to waste a lot of resources and somehow that's going to result in an AI winter.

    目前,業界長老們的一些責備是,你知道,你會浪費大量資源,不知何故,這會導致人工智能寒冬。

  • Like people won't give resources anymore.

    就像人們不再提供資源一樣。

  • It's funny, people were never sure if we were going to waste resources or if we were doing something kind of vaguely immoral by putting in too much resources.

    有趣的是,人們從不確定我們是否會浪費資源,或者我們投入過多資源是否在做某種模糊的不道德的事情。

  • And you were supposed to spread it across lots of bets rather than like conviction on one.

    而且你應該把錢分散到很多賭注中,而不是像對一個賭注深信不疑那樣。

  • Most of the world still does not understand the value of like a fairly extreme level of conviction on one bet.

    世界上大多數人仍然不明白,在一個賭注上下注要有相當極端的信念才有價值。

  • And so we said, okay, we have this evidence.

    於是我們說,好吧,我們有這個證據。

  • We believe in this thing.

    我們相信這件事。

  • We're going to, at a time when like the normal thing was we're going to spread against this bet and that bet and that bet.

    我們要做的是,在正常情況下,我們要對這個賭注、那個賭注和那個賭注進行分散。

  • You're a definite optimist.

    你絕對是個樂觀主義者。

  • You're a definite optimist.

    你絕對是個樂觀主義者。

  • And I think across like many of the successful YC startups, you see a version of that again and again.

    我認為,在許多成功的青年創業公司中,你會一再看到這樣的版本。

  • Yeah, that sounds right.

    是的,聽起來沒錯。

  • When the world gives you sort of pushback and the pushback doesn't make sense to you, you should do it anyway.

    當世界給了你某種回擊,而這種回擊對你來說毫無意義時,你還是應該去做。

  • Totally.

    完全是

  • One of the many things that I'm very grateful about getting exposure to from the world of startups is how many times you see that again and again and again.

    我非常感謝能從初創企業的世界中接觸到很多東西,其中之一就是你能一次又一次地看到這種情況。

  • And before, I think before YC, I really had this deep belief that somewhere in the world, there were adults in charge, adults in the room, and they knew what was going on.

    而在此之前,我想在 YC 之前,我真的深深地相信,在世界的某個角落,有大人在管事,有大人在房間裡,他們知道發生了什麼。

  • And someone had all the answers.

    而有人掌握了所有答案。

  • And, you know, if someone was pushing back on you, they probably knew what was going on.

    而且,你知道,如果有人反擊你,他們很可能知道發生了什麼。

  • And the degree to which I now understand that, you know, to pick up the earlier phrase, you can just do stuff.

    我現在明白了,你知道,接上一句話,你可以做一些事情。

  • You can just try stuff.

    你可以試一試。

  • No one has all the answers.

    沒有人知道所有的答案。

  • There are no like adults in the room that are going to magically tell you exactly what to do.

    房間裡沒有大人會神奇地告訴你到底該怎麼做。

  • And you just kind of have to like iterate quickly and find your way.

    你必須快速迭代,找到自己的方向。

  • That was like a big unlock in life for me to understand.

    對我來說,這就像是人生中的一次重大解鎖。

  • There is a difference between being high conviction just for the sake of it.

    為信念而信念是有區別的。

  • And if you're wrong and you don't adapt and you don't try to be like truth-seeking, it still is really not that effective.

    而如果你錯了,你不去適應,你不去努力做到像尋求真理那樣,那就真的還是沒那麼有效。

  • The thing that we tried to do was really just believe whatever the results told us and really kind of try to go do the thing in front of us.

    我們努力做的事情就是相信結果告訴我們的一切,並努力去做眼前的事情。

  • And there were a lot of things that we were high conviction and wrong on.

    在很多事情上,我們的信念是堅定的,也是錯誤的。

  • But as soon as we realized we were wrong, we tried to like fully embrace it.

    但一旦我們意識到自己錯了,我們就會努力去完全接受它。

  • Conviction is great until the moment you have data one way or the other.

    在獲得數據之前,信念是非常重要的。

  • And there are a lot of people who hold on it past the moment of data.

    有很多人在獲得數據的那一刻還在堅持。

  • So it's iterative.

    所以它是迭代的。

  • It's not just you're wrong and I'm right.

    這不僅僅是你錯我對的問題。

  • You have to go show your worth.

    你必須去展示你的價值。

  • But there is a long moment where you have to be willing to operate without data.

    但有很長一段時間,你必須願意在沒有數據的情況下工作。

  • And at that point, you do have to just sort of run on conviction.

    到了那個時候,你就必須堅定信念。

  • Yeah. It sounds like there's a focusing aspect there too.

    是啊,聽起來也有聚焦的一面。

  • Like you had to make a choice and that choice had better, you know, you didn't have infinite choices.

    就像你必須做出選擇,而這個選擇最好是,你知道,你沒有無限的選擇。

  • And so, you know, the prioritization itself was an exercise that made it much more likely for you to succeed.

    是以,你知道,確定優先次序本身就是一種練習,它使你更有可能取得成功。

  • I wish I could go tell you like, oh, we knew exactly what was going to happen.

    我希望我能告訴你,哦,我們早就知道會發生什麼。

  • And it was, you know, we had this idea for language models from the beginning.

    我們從一開始就有語言模型的想法。

  • And, you know, we kind of went right to this.

    然後,你知道,我們就直接進入主題了。

  • But obviously, the story of OpenAI is that we did a lot of things that helped us develop some scientific understanding, but we're not on the short path.

    但很顯然,OpenAI 的故事是,我們做了很多事情,幫助我們形成了一些科學認識,但我們並沒有走上捷徑。

  • If we knew then what we know now, we could have speedrun this whole thing to like an incredible degree.

    如果我們當時知道現在所知道的一切,我們就能把整件事加速到不可思議的程度。

  • It doesn't work that way. Like you don't get to be right at every guess.

    事情不是這樣的。就像你不可能每次都猜對一樣。

  • And so we started off with a lot of assumptions, both about the direction of technology, but also what kind of company we were going to be and how we were going to be structured and how AGI was going to go and all of these things.

    是以,我們一開始就做了很多假設,既有關於技術發展方向的,也有關於我們將成為一傢什麼樣的公司、我們將如何架構、AGI 將如何發展等所有這些事情的。

  • And we have been like humbled and badly wrong many, many, many times.

    我們就像謙卑的人一樣,錯得很厲害,錯了很多很多次。

  • And one of our strengths is the ability to get punched in the face and get back up and keep going.

    我們的優勢之一就是能夠在臉上挨一拳後爬起來繼續前進。

  • This happens for scientific bets, for, you know, being willing to be wrong about a bunch of other things.

    這種情況發生在科學賭注上,因為,你知道,我們願意在很多其他事情上犯錯。

  • We thought about how the world was going to work and what the sort of shape of the product was going to be.

    我們思考了這個世界將如何運轉,以及產品的形態將是怎樣的。

  • Again, we had no idea, or I at least had no idea, maybe Alec Radford did.

    我們也不知道,至少我不知道,也許亞歷克-拉德福德知道。

  • I had no idea that language models were going to be the thing.

    我不知道語言模型會成為一種趨勢。

  • You know, we started working on robots and agents playing video games and all these other things.

    你知道,我們開始研究機器人和玩電子遊戲的特工,以及其他所有這些東西。

  • Then a few years later, GPT-3 happened.

    幾年後,GPT-3 出現了。

  • That was not so obvious at the time.

    這在當時並不明顯。

  • It sounded like there was a key insight around positive or negative sentiment around GPT-1.

    聽起來,圍繞 GPT-1 的積極或消極情緒有一個關鍵的見解。

  • Even before GPT-1.

    甚至在 GPT-1 之前。

  • Oh, even before.

    哦,甚至在此之前。

  • I think the paper was called The Unsupervised Sentiment Neuron.

    我記得這篇論文的名字叫《無監督情感神經元》(The Unsupervised Sentiment Neuron)。

  • I think Alec did it alone.

    我覺得是亞歷克一個人乾的。

  • By the way, Alec is this unbelievable outlier of a human.

    順便說一句,艾力克是個令人難以置信的異類。

  • And so he did this incredible work, which was just looking at...

    是以,他做了這項令人難以置信的工作,這只是看......

  • He noticed there was one neuron that was flipping positive or negative sentiment as it was doing these generative Amazon reviews, I think.

    他注意到,有一個神經元在做亞馬遜的這些生成性評論時,正在翻轉正面或負面情緒。

  • Other researchers might have hyped it up more, made a bigger deal out of it or whatever.

    其他研究人員可能會誇大其詞,大做文章,或者其他什麼。

  • But, you know, it was Alec.

    但是,你知道,這是亞歷克。

  • So it took people a while to, I think, fully internalize what a big deal it was.

    是以,我認為,人們需要一段時間才能完全理解這是一件多麼重大的事情。

  • And he then did GPT-1.

    然後他又做了 GPT-1。

  • Somebody else scaled it up and did GPT-2.

    還有人擴大了規模,做了 GPT-2。

  • But it was off of this insight that there was something amazing happening where...

    但正是在這種洞察力的指引下,有一些令人驚歎的事情發生了,其中...

  • And at the time, unsupervised learning was just not really working.

    而在當時,無監督學習並沒有真正發揮作用。

  • So he noticed this one really interesting property, which is there was a neuron that was flipping positive or negative with sentiment.

    是以,他注意到了一個非常有趣的特性,那就是有一個神經元會隨著情緒的變化而發生正負翻轉。

  • And, yeah, that led to the GPT series.

    於是,就有了 GPT 系列。

  • I guess one of the things that Jake Heller from Case Text...

    我想,案例文本中的傑克-海勒(Jake Heller)...

  • I think of him as maybe, I mean, not surprisingly, a YC alum who got access to both 3, 3.5 and 4.

    我認為他可能是,我是說,毫不奇怪,一個同時接觸過 3、3.5 和 4 的 YC 校友。

  • And he described getting 4 as sort of the big moment revelation.

    他把獲得第 4 名描述為重大時刻的啟示。

  • Because 3.5 would still do...

    因為 3.5 還可以...

  • I mean, it would hallucinate more than he could use in a legal setting.

    我的意思是,它能產生的幻覺比他在法律環境中使用的還要多。

  • And then with 4, it reached the point where if he chopped the prompts down small enough into workflow, he could get it to do exactly what he wanted.

    到了第 4 版,如果他把提示信息縮小到足夠小的工作流中,就能讓它完全按照他的要求來做。

  • And he built huge test cases around it and then sold that company for $650 million.

    他圍繞它建立了龐大的測試案例,然後以 6.5 億美元的價格賣掉了那家公司。

  • So I think of him as one of the first to commercialize GPT-4 in a relatively grand fashion.

    是以,我認為他是最早以相對隆重的方式將 GPT-4 商業化的人之一。

  • I remember that conversation with him.

    我記得和他的那次談話。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • With when GPT-4...

    當 GPT-4...

  • Like, that was one of the few moments in that thing where I was like, okay, we have something really great on our hands.

    就像,那是為數不多的讓我覺得 "好吧,我們手上有很棒的東西 "的時刻。

  • When we first started trying to sell GPT-3 to founders, they would be like, it's cool.

    我們剛開始向創始人推銷 GPT-3 時,他們會說,這很酷。

  • It's doing something amazing.

    它正在做一件了不起的事。

  • It's an incredible demo.

    這是一個令人難以置信的演示。

  • But with the possible exception of copywriting, no great businesses were built on GPT-3.

    但是,除了文案寫作之外,可能沒有任何偉大的企業是在 GPT-3 的基礎上建立起來的。

  • And then 3.5 came along and people, startups, like YC startups in particular, started to do...

    後來,3.5版本出現了,人們、初創公司,尤其是YC初創公司,開始...

  • It no longer felt like we were pushing a boulder uphill.

    我們不再覺得自己是在推著一塊巨石上山。

  • It's like people actually wanted to buy the thing we were selling.

    就好像人們真的想買我們賣的東西一樣。

  • Totally.

    完全是

  • And then 4, we kind of like got the, like, just how many GPUs can you give me?

    第四步,我們會問,你能給我多少 GPU?

  • Oh, yeah.

    哦,是的

  • Moment, like, very quickly after giving people access.

    在給人們提供訪問權限後,很快就會出現。

  • So we felt like, okay, we got something like really good on our hands.

    所以我們覺得,好吧,我們手上的東西真的很不錯。

  • So you knew actually from your users then?

    那麼,你實際上是從用戶那裡知道的?

  • Totally.

    完全是

  • When the model dropped itself and you got your hands on it, it was like, well, this is better.

    當模型自己掉下來,你拿到它的時候,就會覺得,嗯,這個更好。

  • We were totally impressed then, too.

    我們當時也被深深震撼了。

  • We had all of these, like, tests that we did on it that looked great and it could just do these things that we were all super impressed by.

    我們對它進行了各種測試,結果都很不錯,它能做的事情也讓我們印象深刻。

  • Also, like, when we were all just playing around with it and, like, getting samples back, it was like, wow, it can do this now.

    此外,當我們一起玩它,並獲取樣本時,我們會想,哇,它現在可以這樣做了。

  • And it can rhyme and it can, like, tell a funny joke, slightly funny joke.

    它可以押韻,可以講一個有趣的笑話,稍微有趣的笑話。

  • And it can, like, you know, do this and that.

    它可以,比如,你知道的,做這個做那個。

  • And so it felt really great.

    所以感覺真的很棒。

  • But, you know, you never really know if you have a hit product on your hands until you, like, put it in customers' hands.

    但是,你知道,在你把產品交到客戶手中之前,你永遠不會真正知道自己手中的產品是否受歡迎。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • You're always too impressed with your own work.

    你總是對自己的作品印象太深刻了。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And so we were all excited about it.

    是以,我們都很興奮。

  • We were like, oh, this is really quite good.

    我們當時想,哦,這真的很不錯。

  • But until, like, the test happens, it's like

    但在測試之前,就好像--

  • The real test is

    真正的考驗是

  • Yeah, yeah, the real test is users.

    是啊,是啊,真正的考驗是用戶。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • So there's some anxiety until that moment happens.

    是以,在那一刻到來之前,我們會有些焦慮。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • I wanted to switch gears a little bit.

    我想換換口味。

  • So before you created, obviously, one of the craziest AI labs ever to be created, you started at 19 at YC with a company called Looped, which was basically Find My Friend's geolocation, you know, probably, what, 15 years before Apple ended up making it?

    很顯然,在你創建史上最瘋狂的人工智能實驗室之一之前,你 19 歲就在 YC 創辦了一家名為 Looped 的公司,這家公司基本上就是 "查找我的朋友 "的地理位置定位系統,你知道,大概比蘋果公司早了 15 年吧?

  • Too early in any case, yeah.

    無論如何都太早了,是的。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • What drew you to that particular idea?

    是什麼吸引你產生這個特別的想法?

  • I was, like, interested in mobile phones, and I wanted to do something that got to, like, use mobile phones.

    我對手機很感興趣,我想做一些能使用手機的事情。

  • This was when, like, mobile was just starting.

    那時候,行動電話剛剛起步。

  • It was, like, you know, still three years or two years before the iPhone.

    那時候,你知道,比 iPhone 還早三年或兩年。

  • But it was clear that carrying around computers in our pockets was somehow a very big deal.

    但很顯然,把電腦裝在口袋裡是件大事。

  • I mean, it's hard to believe now that there was a moment when phones were actually literally you just

    我的意思是,現在很難相信,曾經有那麼一刻,電話真的就像你一樣- I mean, it's hard to believe now that there was a moment when phones were actually literally you just-

  • They were just a phone.

    它們只是一部電話。

  • They were an actual phone, yeah.

    他們是真正的電話,是的。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • I mean, I try not to use it as an actual phone ever.

    我是說,我儘量不把它當手機用。

  • Ever, really.

    從來沒有,真的。

  • I still remember the first phone I got that had internet on it, and it was this horrible, like, text-based, mostly text-based browser.

    我還記得我買的第一部有網絡的手機,它是一個可怕的、基於文本的瀏覽器,主要是基於文本的瀏覽器。

  • It was really slow.

    真的很慢。

  • You could, like, you know, do, like, you could so painfully and so slowly check your email.

    你可以,就像,你知道的,做,就像,你可以如此痛苦地、如此緩慢地檢查你的電子郵件。

  • But I was, like, a—I don't know, in high school, sometime in high school, and I got a phone that could do that versus, like, just text and call.

    但我在高中的時候,不知道是什麼時候,我有了一部手機,它可以實現這種功能,而不只是發短信和打電話。

  • And I was, like, hooked right then.

    我當時就被迷住了。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • I was like, oh, this is not a phone.

    我當時想,哦,這不是手機。

  • This is, like, a computer we can carry, and we're stuck with a dial pad for this accident history.

    這就像一臺我們可以隨身攜帶的電腦,而我們只能用撥號盤來記錄事故歷史。

  • But this is going to be awesome.

    但這一定會很棒。

  • And, I mean, now you have billions of people who they don't have a computer.

    而且,我的意思是,現在有數十億人沒有電腦。

  • Like, to us growing up, you know, that actually was your first computer.

    對成長中的我們來說,那其實是你的第一臺電腦。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Not physically, but

    不是身體上的,而是

  • This is a replica or, like, another copy of my first computer, which is a Mac LC2.

    這是我第一臺電腦 Mac LC2 的複製品,或者說是另一個副本。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • So this is what a computer was to us growing up.

    這就是我們成長過程中的電腦。

  • And the idea that you would carry this little black mirror, like, kind of

    而你會帶著這面小黑鏡的想法,就像是--

  • We've come a long way.

    我們已經走了很長的路。

  • Unconscionable back then.

    這在當時是不合情理的。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • So, you know, even then, youlike, technology and what was going to come was sort of in your brain.

    所以,你知道,即使是在那個時候,你的大腦中也會浮現出技術和即將到來的東西。

  • Yeah, I was like a real—I mean, still am a real tech nerd.

    是的,我是個真正的技術呆子,我的意思是,現在仍然是個真正的技術呆子。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • But I alwaysthat was what I spent my Friday nights thinking about.

    但我總是--那就是我週五晚上所想的。

  • And then one of the harder parts of it was we didn't have the App Store.

    最困難的是,我們沒有 App Store。

  • The iPhone didn't exist.

    iPhone 並不存在。

  • You ended up being a big part of that launch, I think.

    我想,你最終成為了發佈會的重要組成部分。

  • A small part, but, yes, we did get to be a little part of it.

    雖然只是一小部分,但我們確實參與其中了。

  • It was a great experience for me to have been through because I kind of, like, understood what it is like to go through a platform shift, and how messy the beginning is, and how much, like, little things you do can shape the direction it all goes.

    這對我來說是一次很好的經歷,因為我明白了平臺轉換是什麼樣子的,開始的時候有多混亂,你做的小事有多大程度上會影響一切的發展方向。

  • I was definitely on the other side of it then.

    那時候我肯定是站在另一邊的。

  • Like, I was watching somebody else create the platform shift.

    就像,我看著別人創造了平臺的轉變。

  • But it was a super valuable experience to get to go through and sort of just see whathow it happens, and how quickly things change, and how you adapt through it.

    但這是一次非常寶貴的經歷,讓我瞭解到事情是如何發生的,事情變化得有多快,以及你是如何適應的。

  • What was that experience like?

    那次經歷是怎樣的?

  • You ended up selling that company.

    你最終賣掉了那家公司。

  • It was probably the first time you were managing people and, you know, doing enterprise sales.

    這可能是你第一次管理員工,也是第一次做企業銷售。

  • All of these things were useful lessons from that first experience.

    所有這些都是第一次經歷的有益經驗。

  • I mean, it obviously was not a successful company.

    我的意思是,這顯然不是一家成功的公司。

  • It wasand so it was a very painful thing to go through.

    是以,這是一件非常痛苦的事情。

  • But the rate of experience and education was incredible.

    但經驗和教育的積累速度令人難以置信。

  • Another thing that PG said, or quoted somebody else saying, but always stuck with me, is your 20s are always an apprenticeship, but you don't know for what, and then you do your real work later.

    PG 說過的另一句話,或者引用別人的話,卻一直讓我記憶猶新,那就是你 20 多歲的時候總是在學徒,但你不知道學什麼,後來你才開始真正的工作。

  • And I did learn quite a lot, and I'm very grateful for it.

    我確實學到了很多東西,對此我非常感激。

  • It was, like, a difficult experience, and we never found product market fit, really.

    這是一段艱難的經歷,我們從未找到適合市場的產品。

  • And we also never, like, really found a way to get to escape velocity, which is just always hard to do.

    而且,我們也從來沒有真正找到一種達到逃逸速度的方法,這一直都很難做到。

  • There is nothing that I have ever heard of that has a higher rate of generalized learning than doing a startup.

    我聽說過,沒有什麼能比初創企業的學習普及率更高。

  • So it was great in that sense.

    是以,從這個意義上講,它是偉大的。

  • You know, when you're 19 and 20, like, riding the wave of some other platform shift, this shift from, you know, dumb cell phones to smartphones and mobile.

    你知道,當你 19 歲和 20 歲的時候,就像乘著其他平臺轉變的浪潮,從傻瓜手機向智能手機和移動設備轉變。

  • And, you know, here we are many years later, and your next act was actually, you know

    然後,你知道,很多年後我們在這裡, 你的下一個行為實際上是,你知道- And, you know, here we are many years later, and your next act was actually, you know-

  • I mean, I guess two acts later, literally spawning one of the major platform shifts.

    我的意思是,我猜兩幕之後,就會催生一個重大的平臺轉變。

  • We all get old.

    我們都會變老。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • But that's really what's happening, you know.

    但事實就是這樣,你知道嗎?

  • 18-, 20-year-olds are deciding that they could get their degree, but they're going to miss the wave.

    18、20 歲的年輕人決定,他們可以拿到學位,但他們會錯過這波浪潮。

  • Like, because all of this stuff

    因為這些東西

  • That's great.

    好極了

  • everything's happening right now.

    -一切都在發生。

  • I am proud to hear that.

    聽到這個消息,我感到非常自豪。

  • Do you have an intuitive sense?

    你有直覺嗎?

  • Like, speaking to even a lot of the, you know, really great billion-dollar company founders, some of them are just not that aware of what's happening.

    就像,與很多真正偉大的十億美元級公司創始人交談時,他們中的一些人並沒有意識到正在發生什麼。

  • Like, they're CTOs.

    比如,他們是首席技術官。

  • It is astonishing to me.

    這讓我感到驚訝。

  • It's wild, right?

    很狂野吧?

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • I think that's why I'm so excited for startups right now, is because the world is still sleeping on all of this to such an astonishing degree.

    我想,這就是為什麼我現在對初創企業感到如此興奮,因為這個世界還在沉睡,對這一切的認識還停留在驚人的程度。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And then you have, like, the YC founders being like, no, no, I'm going to, like, do this amazing thing and do it very quickly.

    然後,YC 的創始人就會說,不,不,我要做這件了不起的事情,而且要做得非常快。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • It reminds me of when Facebook almost missed mobile, because they were making web software, and they were really good at it.

    這讓我想起 Facebook 差點錯過移動業務的時候,因為他們當時正在做網絡軟件,而且做得非常好。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And, like, they almost—I mean, they had to buy Instagram.

    而且,他們幾乎--我是說,他們不得不買下 Instagram。

  • Like, Snapchat

    比如,Snapchat

  • And WhatsApp.

    還有 WhatsApp。

  • Yeah, and WhatsApp.

    對,還有 WhatsApp。

  • So it's interesting.

    所以這很有趣。

  • The platform shift is always built by the people who are young with no prior knowledge.

    平臺的轉變總是由毫無經驗的年輕人建立的。

  • It's—it is—I think it's great.

    我認為這很好。

  • So there's this other aspect that's interesting in that I think you're, you know, you and Elon and Bezos and a bunch of people out there, like, they sort of start their journey as founders, you know, really, you know, whether it's Looped or Zip2 or, you know, really in maybe pure software.

    所以,還有一個方面很有意思,我認為你,你知道,你和埃隆、貝索斯以及外面的很多人一樣,他們都是以創始人的身份開始他們的旅程的,你知道,真的,你知道,不管是 Looped 還是 Zip2,或者,你知道,真的,也許是純粹的軟件。

  • Like, it's just a different thing that they start, and then later they, you know, sort of get to level up.

    就像,這只是他們開始時的一件不同的事情,後來,他們,你知道,就會變得更上一層樓。

  • You know, is there a path that you recommend at this point?

    在這一點上,你有什麼建議嗎?

  • If people are thinking, you know, I want to work on the craziest hard tech thing first, should they just run towards that to the extent they can?

    如果人們想,你知道,我想先研究最瘋狂的硬技術,那麼他們是否應該儘可能地朝著這個方向努力?

  • Or is there value in, you know, sort of solving the money problem first, being able to invest your own money, like, very deeply into the next thing?

    或者說,先解決資金問題,然後再把自己的錢投入到下一件事中,這樣做是否有價值?

  • It's a really interesting question.

    這是一個非常有趣的問題。

  • It was definitely helpful that I could just, like, write the early checks for OpenAI, and I think it would've been hard to get somebody else to do that at the very beginning.

    我可以為 OpenAI 開具早期支票,這對我來說絕對很有幫助。

  • And then Elon did it a lot at a much higher scale, which I'm very grateful for, and then other people did after that.

    然後,埃隆在更高的規模上做了很多,我對此非常感激,之後其他人也做了很多。

  • And there's other things that I've invested in that I'm really happy to have been able to support, and I don't—I think it would've been hard to get other people to do it.

    我還投資了其他一些事情,我很高興能夠支持這些事情,我不認為--我認為很難讓其他人來做這件事。

  • So that's great for sure.

    所以,這肯定是件好事。

  • And I did, like we were talking about earlier, learn these extremely valuable lessons.

    就像我們之前說的,我確實學到了這些極其寶貴的經驗。

  • But I also feel like I kind of, like, was wasting my time, for lack of a better phrase, working on Looped.

    但我也覺得,我在《Looped》上的工作有點像在浪費時間。

  • I don't—I definitely don't regret it.

    我不後悔,我絕對不後悔。

  • It's, like, all part of the tapestry of life, and I learned a ton, and whatever else, but

    這就是生活的一部分,我學到了很多,還有其他的,但是--

  • What would you have done differently?

    你有什麼不同的做法?

  • Or what would you tell yourself from, like, now to in a time capin a time travel capsule that would show up on your desk at Stanford when you were 19?

    或者說,從現在到19歲那年,你在斯坦福大學的辦公桌上出現的時光旅行膠囊裡,你會對自己說些什麼?

  • Well, it's hard, because AI was always the thing I most wanted to do.

    這很難,因為人工智能一直是我最想做的事情。

  • And AI justlike, I went to school to study AI.

    人工智能就像,我去學校學習人工智能。

  • But at the time I was working in the AI lab, the one thing that I— they told you is definitely don't work on neural networks.

    但我在人工智能實驗室工作時,他們告訴我的一點是,絕對不要研究神經網絡。

  • We tried that, and it doesn't work.

    我們試過了,不管用。

  • That's a long time ago.

    那是很久以前的事了。

  • I think I could have picked a much better thing to work on than Looped.

    我想我可以選擇比 Looped 更好的工作。

  • I don't know exactly what it would have been, but it all works out. It's fine.

    我不知道具體會怎樣,但一切都會好起來的。沒事的

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • There's this long history of people building more technology to help improve other people's lives.

    人們創造更多技術來幫助改善他人生活的歷史由來已久。

  • And I actually think about this a lot.

    事實上,我經常思考這個問題。

  • Like, I think about the people that made that computer, and I don't know them.

    比如,我想到了製造那臺電腦的人,但我並不認識他們。

  • You know, many of them probably long retired, but I am so grateful to them.

    你知道,他們中的許多人可能早已退休,但我非常感謝他們。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And some people worked super hard to make this thing at the limits of technology.

    有些人付出了巨大的努力,在技術的極限下做出了這個東西。

  • I got a copy of that on my eighth birthday, and it totally changed my life.

    在我八歲生日那天,我得到了一本這本書,它徹底改變了我的生活。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And the lives of a lot of other people, too.

    還有很多其他人的生活。

  • They worked super hard.

    他們工作得超級賣力。

  • They never, like, got a thank you from me, but I feel it to them very deeply.

    他們從來沒有收到過我的感謝,但我對他們有很深的感情。

  • And it's really nice to get to, like, add our brick to that long road of progress.

    很高興能為這條漫長的進步之路添磚加瓦。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • It's been a great year for OpenAI, not without some drama.

    對於 OpenAI 來說,這是偉大的一年,但也不乏一些戲劇性事件。

  • Always.

    總是這樣

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • We're good at that.

    我們很擅長這個。

  • What did you learn from, you know, sort of the ouster last fall?

    你從去年秋天的下臺事件中學到了什麼?

  • And how do you feel about some of the, you know, departures?

    你對一些離職人員有何看法?

  • I mean, teams do evolve, but how are you doing, man?

    我的意思是,團隊確實在發展,但你怎麼樣,夥計?

  • Tired, but good.

    累,但很好。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • It's, we've kind of, like, speed run, like, medium size or even kind of, like, pretty big size tech company arc that would normally take, like, a decade and two years.

    我們已經加速了中等規模,甚至是相當大的科技公司的發展,這通常需要十年兩年的時間。

  • Like, ChessGPT is less than two years old.

    比如,ChessGPT 成立還不到兩年。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And there's, like, a lot of painful stuff that comes with that.

    隨之而來的,還有很多痛苦。

  • And there are, you know, any company as it scales goes through management teams at some rate, and you have to sort of, the people who are really good at the zero to one phase are not necessarily people that are good at the one to ten or the ten to the hundred phase.

    你知道,任何一家公司在發展過程中都會按一定的速度經歷管理團隊的磨合,而你必須知道,真正擅長從零到一階段的人並不一定擅長從一到十或從十到百的階段。

  • We've also kind of, like, changed what we're going to be, made plenty of mistakes along the way, done a few things really right.

    我們也改變了自己,一路上犯了很多錯誤,但也做對了幾件事。

  • And that comes with a lot of change.

    隨之而來的是巨大的變化。

  • And I think the goal of the company, the emergent AGI or whatever, however you want to think about it, is, like, just to keep making the best decisions we can at every stage.

    我認為,不管你怎麼想,公司的目標、新興人工智能或其他什麼,就是在每個階段都做出最好的決定。

  • But it does lead to a lot of change.

    但它確實帶來了很多變化。

  • I hope that we are heading towards a period now of more calm, but I'm sure there will be other periods in the future where things are very dynamic again.

    我希望我們現在正走向一個更加平靜的時期,但我相信,未來還會有其他時期,事情會再次變得非常有活力。

  • So, I guess, how does OpenAI actually work right now?

    那麼,我想,OpenAI 現在究竟是如何工作的呢?

  • You know, I mean, the quality and, like, the pace that you're pushing right now, I think, is, like, beyond world class compared to a lot of the other, you know, really established software players, like, who came before.

    你知道,我的意思是,你現在推動的品質和速度,我認為,與其他很多真正成熟的軟件公司相比,已經超越了世界級水準。

  • This is the first time ever where I felt like we actually know what to do.

    這是我第一次覺得我們真正知道該怎麼做。

  • Like, I think from here to building an AGI will still take a huge amount of work.

    比如,我認為從這裡到建立一個人工智能,仍然需要大量的工作。

  • There are some known unknowns, but I think we basically know what to go do.

    有一些已知的未知因素,但我想我們基本上知道該怎麼做。

  • And it'll take a while, it'll be hard, but that's tremendously exciting.

    這將需要一段時間,會很艱難,但卻令人無比興奮。

  • I also think on the product side, there's more to figure out, but roughly we know what to shoot at and what we want to optimize for.

    我還認為,在產品方面,還有更多的問題需要解決,但大致上我們知道該瞄準什麼,要優化什麼。

  • That's a really exciting time.

    這真是一個激動人心的時刻。

  • And when you have that clarity, I think you can go pretty fast.

    當你有了這種清晰度,我想你就能走得很快。

  • If you're willing to say, we're going to do these few things, we're going to try to do them very well, and our research path is fairly clear, our infrastructure path is fairly clear, our product path is getting clearer, you can orient around that super well.

    如果你願意說,我們要做這幾件事,我們要努力把它們做好,我們的研究路徑相當清晰,我們的基礎設施路徑相當清晰,我們的產品路徑越來越清晰,你就能很好地確定方向。

  • We, for a long time, did not have that.

    在很長一段時間裡,我們都不具備這樣的條件。

  • We were a true research lab.

    我們是一個真正的研究實驗室。

  • And even when you know that, it's hard to act with the conviction on it because there's so many other good things you'd like to do.

    即使你知道這一點,也很難堅定地付諸行動,因為你想做的其他好事太多了。

  • But the degree to which you can get everybody aligned and pointed at the same thing is a significant determinant in how fast you can move.

    但是,你能在多大程度上讓每個人都對準同一目標,這對你的行動速度是一個重要的決定因素。

  • I mean, sounds like we went from level one to level two very recently, and that was really powerful.

    我的意思是,聽起來我們最近從一級升到了二級,這真的很強大。

  • And then we actually just had our O1 hackathon at YC.

    實際上,我們剛剛在 YC 舉辦了 O1 黑客馬拉松。

  • Yeah, that was so impressive.

    是啊,真是令人印象深刻。

  • That was super fun.

    真是超級有趣。

  • And then weirdly, one of the people who won, I think they came in third, was Camphor.

    然後奇怪的是,獲勝者之一,我想他們是第三名,是樟腦。

  • And so CAD-CAM startup did YC recently, last year or two, and they were able to, during the hackathon, build something that would iteratively improve an airfoil from something that wouldn't fly to literally something that had a competitive amount of lift.

    最近,CAD-CAM 初創公司在去年或前年開展了 YC 項目,在黑客馬拉松期間,他們能夠製造出能夠迭代改進機翼的東西,從不會飛的機翼改進為具有競爭力升力的機翼。

  • And I mean, that sort of sounds like level four, which is the innovator stage.

    我的意思是,這聽起來有點像第四級,也就是創新者階段。

  • It's very funny you say that.

    你這麼說真有意思。

  • I had been telling people for a while I thought that the level two to level three jump was going to happen, but then the level three to level four jump waslevel two to level three was going to happen quickly.

    我一直告訴人們,我認為二級到三級的跳躍會發生,但三級到四級的跳躍是二級到三級的跳躍,很快就會發生。

  • And then the level three to level four jump was somehow going to be much harder and require some medium-sized or larger new ideas.

    然後,三級到四級的跳轉在某種程度上會更加困難,需要一些中型或大型的新創意。

  • And that demo and a few others have convinced me that you can get a huge amount of innovation just by using these current models in really creative ways.

    這個演示和其他一些演示讓我相信,只要以真正有創意的方式使用這些現有模型,就能帶來巨大的創新。

  • Well, yeah, I mean, what's interesting is basically Camphor already built sort of the underlying software for CAD-CAM, and then language is sort of the interface to the large language model, which then can use the software-like tool use.

    嗯,是的,我的意思是,有趣的是,基本上樟腦已經構建了 CAD-CAM 的底層軟件,然後語言是大型語言模型的接口,然後可以使用類似軟件的工具。

  • And then if you combine that with the idea of CodeGen, that's kind of a scary, crazy idea, right?

    如果把這一想法與 "代碼生成"(CodeGen)結合起來,那將是一個可怕而瘋狂的想法,對嗎?

  • Like not only can the large language model code, but it can create tools for itself and then compose those tools similar to Chain of Thoughts with O1.

    比如,大型語言不僅可以建立代碼模型,還可以為自己創建工具,然後將這些工具組合起來,類似於 O1 的思維鏈(Chain of Thoughts)。

  • Yeah, I think things are going to go a lot faster than people are appreciating right now.

    是的,我認為事情發展的速度會比人們現在所意識到的要快得多。

  • Yeah. Well, it's an exciting time to be alive, honestly.

    是啊說實話,這是一個令人興奮的時代。

  • You know, you mentioned earlier that thing about discover all of physics.

    你知道嗎,你之前提到過關於發現所有物理學的事情。

  • I always wanted to be a physicist, wasn't smart enough to be a good one, had to like contribute in this other way.

    我一直想成為一名物理學家,但我不夠聰明,無法成為一名優秀的物理學家,所以我必須以其他方式為物理學家做出貢獻。

  • But the fact that somebody else I really believe is now going to go solve all the physics with this stuff, like, I'm so excited to be alive for that.

    但事實上,我真的相信,現在會有其他人用這些東西去解決所有的物理問題,就像,我很興奮能為此而活著。

  • Let's get to level four.

    讓我們進入第四關。

  • So happy for whoever that person is.

    不管那個人是誰,我都為他感到高興。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Do you want to talk about level three, four and five briefly?

    你想簡單談談第三、第四和第五級嗎?

  • Yeah, so we realized that AGI had become this like badly overloaded word and people in all kinds of different things.

    是的,所以我們意識到,AGI 已經成為一個嚴重超載的詞,人們在各種不同的事情中都會用到它。

  • And we tried to just say, okay, here's our best guess roughly of the order of things.

    我們試著說,好吧,這是我們對事情發展順序的大致猜測。

  • You have these level one systems, which are these chatbots.

    你們有一級系統,也就是哈拉機器人。

  • There'd be level two that would come, which would be these reasoners.

    還會有第二級,那就是這些推理者。

  • We think we got there earlier this year with the O1 release.

    我們認為,今年早些時候發佈的 O1 已經達到了這一目標。

  • Three is agents ability to go off and do these longer term tasks.

    三是代理人有能力去完成這些長期任務。

  • Maybe like multiple interactions with an environment, asking people for help when they need it, working together, all of that.

    也許就像與環境的多重互動、在需要時向他人尋求幫助、一起工作等等。

  • And I think we're going to get there faster than people expect.

    我認為,我們會比人們預期的更快實現這一目標。

  • Four is innovators, like that's like a scientist and that's ability to go explore like a not well understood phenomena over like a long period of time and understand what's just kind of go just figure it out.

    四是創新者,就像科學家一樣,有能力在很長一段時間內去探索不為人所熟知的現象,瞭解什麼是真正的創新。

  • And then level five, this is the sort of slightly amorphous, like do that, but at the scale of a whole company or a whole organization or whatever.

    然後是第五級,這是一種略微無定形的,就像這樣做,但規模是整個公司或整個組織或其他。

  • That's going to be a pretty powerful thing.

    這將是一件非常強大的事情。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And it feels kind of fractal, right?

    感覺有點像分形,對吧?

  • Like even the things you had to do to get to two sort of rhyme with level five.

    就像你必須做的事情才能達到第二級,這與第五級有點押韻。

  • And then you have multiple agents that then self-correct, that work together.

    然後,你就會有多個代理,然後自我糾正,共同工作。

  • I mean, that kind of sounds like an organization to me, just at like a very micro level.

    我的意思是,這聽起來像是一個組織,只是在非常微觀的層面上。

  • Do you think that we'll have, I mean, you famously talked about it.

    你是否認為我們會有,我的意思是,你曾談論過這個問題。

  • I think Jake talks about it.

    我想傑克說過這件事。

  • It's like, you will have companies that make, you know, billions of dollars per year and have like less than a hundred employees, maybe 50, maybe 20 employees, maybe one.

    這就好比,有的公司年收入高達數十億美元,卻只有不到 100 名員工,也許是 50 名,也許是 20 名,也許是 1 名。

  • It does seem like that.

    看起來確實如此。

  • I don't know what to make of that other than it's a great time to be a startup founder.

    我不知道該怎麼理解,只能說現在是創業公司創始人的大好時機。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • But it does feel like that's happening to me.

    但我確實感覺到了。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • You know, it's like one person plus 10,000 GPUs.

    你知道,這就像一個人加上 10,000 個 GPU。

  • Could happen.

    有可能發生

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Sam, what advice do you have for people watching who, you know, either are about to start or just started their startup?

    山姆,你對那些即將或剛剛開始創業的觀眾有什麼建議?

  • Bet on this tech trend, like bet on this trend.

    在這一技術趨勢上下注,就像在這一趨勢上下注一樣。

  • It's, this is, we are not near the saturation point.

    這是,這是,我們還沒有接近飽和點。

  • The models are going to get so much better so quickly.

    模型會很快變得更好。

  • What you can do as a startup founder with this versus what you could do without it is so wildly different.

    作為初創企業創始人,有了它和沒有它,你能做的事情天差地別。

  • And the big companies, even the medium-sized companies, even the startups that are a few years old, they're already on like quarterly planning cycles.

    大公司,甚至是中型公司,甚至是成立幾年的初創公司,他們都已經開始按季度制定計劃。

  • And Google is on a year, decade planning cycle.

    而谷歌的規劃週期是一年或十年。

  • I don't know how they even do it anymore.

    我都不知道他們是怎麼做到的。

  • But your advantage with speed and focus and conviction and the ability to react to how fast the technology is moving, that is the number one edge of a startup, kind of ever, but especially right now.

    但你的優勢在於速度、專注、信念以及對技術發展速度做出反應的能力,這是初創企業的首要優勢,在任何時候都是如此,但現在尤其如此。

  • So I would definitely like build something with AI and I would definitely like take advantage of the ability to see a new thing and build something that day rather than like put it into a quarterly planning cycle.

    是以,我肯定希望用人工智能來構建一些東西,我肯定希望利用看到新事物的能力,在當天構建一些東西,而不是把它放到一個季度的計劃週期中。

  • I guess the other thing I would say is it is easy when there's a new technology platform to say, well, because I'm doing some of AI, the rule, the laws of business don't apply to me.

    我想我要說的另一件事是,當出現一個新的技術平臺時,人們很容易說,好吧,因為我在做一些人工智能,所以商業規則和法則對我不適用。

  • I have this magic technology and so I don't have to build a moat or a competitive edge or a better product.

    我擁有這項神奇的技術,所以我不需要建立護城河、競爭優勢或更好的產品。

  • It's because I'm doing AI and you're not.

    因為我在做人工智能,而你沒有。

  • So that's all I need.

    我只需要這些。

  • And that's obviously not true.

    而事實顯然並非如此。

  • But what you can get are these short-term explosions of growth by embracing a new technology more quickly than somebody else and remembering not to fall for that and that you still have to build something of enduring value.

    但是,你可以通過比別人更快地接受一項新技術來獲得短期的爆炸式增長,但要記住不要上當,你仍然必須建立一些具有持久價值的東西。

  • I think that's a good thing to keep in mind too.

    我覺得這一點也很值得牢記。

  • Everyone can build an absolutely incredible demo right now.

    現在,每個人都可以製作絕對令人難以置信的演示。

  • Everyone can build an incredible demo.

    每個人都能製作出令人難以置信的演示。

  • But building a business, man, that's the brass ring.

    但創業,夥計,那才是最重要的。

  • The rules still apply.

    規則仍然適用。

  • You can do it faster than ever before and better than ever before, but you still have to build a business.

    你可以比以往任何時候都做得更快、更好,但你仍然必須建立自己的企業。

  • What are you excited about in 2025?

    您對 2025 年有什麼期待?

  • What's to come?

    未來會發生什麼?

  • AGI?

    AGI?

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • Excited for that?

    興奮嗎?

  • What am I excited for?

    我在興奮什麼?

  • Growing a kid, I'm more excited for that than anything I've ever been.

    作為一個孩子,我為此感到前所未有的興奮。

  • Incredible.

    不可思議

  • Yeah, probably that.

    是的,可能就是這樣。

  • That's by far the thing I'm most excited for ever in life.

    這是我這輩子最興奮的事情。

  • Yeah, it changes your life completely, so.

    是啊,它完全改變了你的生活,所以。

  • I cannot wait.

    我等不及了

  • Well, here's to building that better world for, you know, our kids and really hopefully the whole world.

    為我們的孩子,也希望為整個世界,建設一個更美好的世界。

  • This was a lot of fun.

    這真是太有趣了。

  • Thanks for hanging out, Sam.

    謝謝你陪我玩,薩姆。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

We said from the very beginning we were going to go after AGI at a time when, in the field, you weren't allowed to say that.

我們從一開始就說,我們要追尋 AGI,而當時在這個領域,你還不能這麼說。

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