That's the question on the minds of many analysts as the war in Ukraine grinds on.

隨著烏克蘭戰爭的持續，許多分析家都在思考這個問題。

With regards to Ukrainian forces, a friend described it as they are bleeding out.

關於烏克蘭部隊，一位朋友形容他們正在失血。

Today, after over 2 1⁄2 years of fighting,

今天，經過 2 年多的戰鬥、

Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory.

俄羅斯控制著烏克蘭約 18% 的領土。

What's more, Ukrainian troops are outnumbered and outgunned, with little prospect of significant relief.

更重要的是，烏克蘭軍隊寡不敵眾，兵力不足，幾乎沒有大幅解圍的希望。

Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election also brings a fresh jolt of uncertainty to continued U.S. support for Ukraine.

唐納德-特朗普在總統大選中獲勝也給美國繼續支持烏克蘭帶來了新的不確定性。

Do you want Ukraine to win this war?

您希望烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭嗎？

I want the war to stop.

我希望戰爭停止。

I want to save lives.

我想拯救生命。

Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Kiev facing a tough winter, some believe Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan.

現在，隨著俄羅斯繼續在戰場上緩慢取得進展，基輔又面臨著一個艱難的冬天，一些人認為烏克蘭可能需要制定一個更現實的計劃。

To better understand the state of play on the battlefield and what may come next, the Wall Street Journal sat down with retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmett.

為了更好地瞭解戰場上的情況以及接下來可能發生的事情，《華爾街日報》採訪了退役准將馬克-金梅特（Mark Kimmett）。

Before we talk about the battlefield, it might be helpful to put the battlefield in perspective.

在談論戰場之前，我們不妨先來了解一下戰場。

Ukraine is much, much larger.

烏克蘭的面積要大得多，大得多。

It goes along this entire borderline.

它沿著整個邊界線延伸。

Four-fifths of the country is not involved in the war directly.

全國五分之四的人口沒有直接參與戰爭。

There's no direct combat action going on.

沒有直接的戰鬥行動。

The Russians right now are focused as a main effort is up in the Donetsk and Luhansk.

俄羅斯人現在的主要精力都集中在頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克。

They're trying to, of course, continue to push to the east.

當然，他們正試圖繼續向東推進。

But there are also two other areas of interest.

但還有另外兩個值得關注的領域。

This area around Sumy is the area that people now know as the Kursk salient, where the Ukrainians made a attack into Russia proper, trying to pull off a significant amount of forces from the front lines.

蘇梅周圍的這一地區現在被人們稱為庫爾斯克突出部，烏克蘭人在這裡向俄羅斯本土發起進攻，試圖從前線抽調大量兵力。

According to General Kimmett, the Kursk salient attack wasn't just the most effective move

金梅特將軍認為，庫爾斯克突出部的進攻不僅是最有效的行動

Ukraine made within the past year.

烏克蘭在過去的一年中。

It was also a significant propaganda victory for the Ukrainians.

這也是烏克蘭人在宣傳上的一次重大勝利。

I think it was masterful in terms of the element of surprise that they could attack into Russia, make gains, and point a dagger towards Moscow a couple of hundred miles away.

我認為，從出其不意的因素來看，他們可以攻入俄羅斯，取得戰果，並將匕首指向幾百英里外的莫斯科，這是非常高明的。

It was, in many ways, wrong in terms of its other intent, which was to draw key Russian forces off the eastern front.

從許多方面來看，它的另一個意圖是把俄羅斯的主要部隊從東線引開，這是錯誤的。

And I think it was wrong because it was inevitable that the Russians would do what the Russians always do, which is they're now trying to envelop that force.

我認為這是錯誤的，因為俄羅斯人不可避免地會做俄羅斯人一貫會做的事，那就是他們現在正試圖包圍這支部隊。

Over here in Luhansk and Donetsk, the battle for the last six months has, for the most part, been focused on one side defending and the other side attacking key road installations.

在盧甘斯克和頓涅茨克，過去六個月的戰鬥主要集中在一方防守和另一方進攻關鍵的公路設施上。

Primarily, these two roads going into Kharkiv are being blocked at these key intersections where a number of roads come through.

主要是這兩條通往哈爾科夫的道路在這些關鍵路口被封鎖，而這些路口有多條道路通過。

But these are very, very small areas, very small distances measured in the kilometers, in many times the hundreds of meters.

但這些都是非常非常小的區域，非常小的距離，以千米為組織、部門，很多時候以百米為組織、部門。

Down here in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, it's clear that the Russians are holding the line there.

在扎波羅熱和赫爾松，俄羅斯人顯然守住了防線。

I don't think there's an opportunity for this winter for the Ukrainian forces to make any headway down here.

我認為今年冬天烏克蘭部隊沒有機會在這裡取得任何進展。

They might, in fact, push out a little bit from Kherson.

事實上，他們可能會從赫爾松向外推進一點。

But I think they're going to go into the wintertime holding the line.

但我認為他們會在冬季堅守陣地。

So overall, stalemate along this line.

是以，總的來說，這條線上的局勢陷入了僵局。

This is where the main effort of the Russian forces are focused upon.

俄軍的主要力量都集中在這裡。

Trying to break through along this route and along this route to either threaten Kharkiv or to come down here and surround the forces that are the Ukrainian forces that are attacking along this route.

試圖沿著這條路線突圍，威脅哈爾科夫，或者衝到這裡，包圍沿著這條路線進攻的烏克蘭部隊。

And of course, trying to get Donetsk back, if you're the Ukrainians, and attack west, if you're the Russians.

當然，如果你是烏克蘭人，就要努力奪回頓涅茨克，如果你是俄羅斯人，就要向西進攻。

So watch this area for the main action, supporting action up here around Kharkiv and Kursk, and holding the line down here in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

是以，請注意這一地區的主要行動，在哈爾科夫和庫爾斯克附近的支援行動，以及在扎波羅熱和赫爾松的防線。

In recent months, the Ukrainians have had success deploying drone swarms into Russia.

最近幾個月，烏克蘭人成功地將無人機群部署到了俄羅斯境內。

These long-range strikes, which have reached all the way to Russia's Arctic shores in the north and areas bordering Kazakhstan in the east, have slammed into missile storage facilities, strategic fuel reserves, military airfields, and defense plants.

這些遠程打擊一直延伸到俄羅斯北部的北極海岸和東部與哈薩克斯坦接壤的地區，猛烈撞擊飛彈儲存設施、戰略燃料儲備、軍用機場和國防工廠。

Despite the many sacrifices made thus far by the Ukrainians,

儘管烏克蘭人迄今已做出了許多犧牲、

General Kimmett sees the conflict as an ongoing stalemate.

金梅特將軍認為衝突仍在僵持。

I think it'd be accurate to say that neither side is winning, nor is either side losing.

我認為，準確地說，雙方都沒有贏，也沒有輸。

But if you talk about the ability to replace those forces, it is clear that the Ukrainians are losing capability at a faster rate than the Russians are losing capability.

但如果說到替換這些部隊的能力，很明顯，烏克蘭人正在以比俄羅斯人更快的速度喪失能力。

The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's long-term stated aim of taking back control of Ukrainian territory.

西方仍然支持烏克蘭總統沃洛德梅爾-澤連斯基宣稱的奪回烏克蘭領土控制權的長期目標。

But recently, the Biden administration said it was concerned that the Ukrainian leader's plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy.

但最近，拜登政府表示，它擔心烏克蘭領導人贏得對俄戰爭的計劃缺乏全面戰略。

His war aims, which is pushing the Russians out, restoring sovereignty both on eastern Ukraine and on Crimea, my view is that's impossible, unrealistic.

他的戰爭目標是趕走俄羅斯人，恢復烏克蘭東部和克里米亞的主權，我認為這是不可能的，也是不現實的。

The lack of progress on the battlefield has led some European diplomats to question the feasibility of Zelensky's war aims.

戰場上缺乏進展導致一些歐洲外交官質疑澤倫斯基的戰爭目標是否可行。

The expense to the European economies to provide weapons and equipment is starting to bite.

歐洲經濟為提供武器裝備所付出的代價已開始顯現。

They don't have that excess capacity for one.

他們沒有過剩的產能。

They don't have the industrial capability to produce replacements, two.

其二，他們沒有生產替代品的工業能力。

And three, as we, the United States, continue to press for them to meet their NATO obligations, to do all of that is a pretty tough call on the Europeans.

第三，在我們美國繼續要求他們履行北約義務的同時，要做到這一切對歐洲人來說是一個相當艱難的要求。

Another concern is population decline.

另一個令人擔憂的問題是人口減少。

A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter.

據熟悉內情的人士稱，烏克蘭今年早些時候的一份機密估計顯示，烏克蘭軍隊死亡人數為 8 萬人，受傷人數為 40 萬人。

Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and the wounded at around 400,000.

西方情報部門對俄羅斯傷亡人數的估計不盡相同，有人認為死亡人數高達近 20 萬，受傷人數約為 40 萬。

To shore up its manpower on the battlefield,

加強戰場上的人力、

Russia is also looking to North Korean troops.

俄羅斯也在關注北韓軍隊。

The Pentagon recently said North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia.

五角大樓最近稱，北韓向俄羅斯派遣了約 10,000 名阿兵哥。

If you think about war, 90%, 95% of soldiers on the battlefield aren't on the front lines.

想想戰爭，戰場上 90%、95% 的阿兵哥都不在前線。

They're cooking, they're in command posts, they're repairing trucks.

他們在做飯，他們在指揮所，他們在修理卡車。

That's why Ukraine conscripts from the top.

這就是烏克蘭從高層徵兵的原因。

Troubling, it is now the case that they're sending some of those older men into the trench lines.

令人不安的是，現在他們正把一些年長者送上戰壕。

It's clear that Zelensky wants to protect the 18- to 25-year-old cohort because that's the future of Ukraine, both in available military, if necessary, but really to rebuild the post-war economy that will come.

很明顯，澤連斯基希望保護 18 至 25 歲的年輕人，因為他們是烏克蘭的未來，必要時可以參軍，但真正要重建的是戰後經濟。

Unfortunately, many of those are defecting or deserting.

不幸的是，其中許多人正在叛逃或開小差。

So, in my mind, Zelensky's got a personnel issue, not only in terms of sheer numbers, but also in terms of support for the war among the military.

是以，在我看來，澤倫斯基遇到了人員問題，不僅是人數問題，還有軍隊對戰爭的支持度問題。

Another important factor is the new US president-elect, Donald Trump.

另一個重要因素是美國新當選總統唐納德-特朗普。

Trump has vowed to end the war quickly.

特朗普發誓要迅速結束戰爭。

I think Zelensky is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived.

我認為澤倫斯基可能是有史以來最偉大的推銷員。

Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion.

他每次來我國，都能帶走 600 億美元。

Looking ahead, General Kimmett sees a hard road for the Ukrainians.

展望未來，基梅特將軍認為烏克蘭人的道路將十分艱難。

There is little doubt in my mind that the Ukrainian armed forces could continue to stay intact and on the battlefield through 2025, through a year from now, but I think the political and diplomatic issues are going to overwhelm the battlefield issues.

在我看來，毫無疑問，烏克蘭武裝部隊可以在 2025 年或一年後繼續保持完整並留在戰場上，但我認為政治和外交問題將壓倒戰場問題。