Name: 這個核心選民群體如何讓特朗普贏得 2024 年大選 | WSJ State of the Stat (How This Core Voter Group Delivered Trump the 2024 Election | WSJ State of the Stat)
Uploaded: 2024-11-08T06:27:02.000Z
Duration: 3 min 14 s

This is Donald Trump's base, people without a bachelor's degree, also known as working-class voters.

這就是唐納德-特朗普的基礎選民，沒有學士學位的人，也被稱為工薪階層選民。

And his ability to broaden his support within this group of people delivered him the 2024 election.

而他在這群人中擴大支持率的能力為他贏得了 2024 年的選舉。

程度副詞

I want to thank the millions of hardworking Americans across the nation who have always been the heart and soul of this really great movement.

我要感謝全美數百萬辛勤工作的美國人，他們始終是這場真正偉大運動的核心和靈魂。

If we look at how these two groups voted, it's clear voters with degrees made up Kamala Harris' base support and those without made up Trump's.

如果我們看看這兩個群體的投票情況，很明顯，有學位的選民構成了卡馬拉-哈里斯的基本支持，而沒有學位的選民構成了特朗普的基本支持。

And if you compare how these groups voted in 2020 versus today, you'll see a significant shift to Trump by the non-college voters.

如果將這些群體在 2020 年的投票情況與今天的投票情況進行比較，你會發現非大學生選民的投票明顯轉向特朗普。

You can see how he's made those gains if you sort the non-college voters by gender.

如果按性別對非大學生選民進行分類，就能看到他是如何取得這些進展的。

Trump made huge gains among men and a small gain among women without a college degree.

特朗普在男性中的支持率大幅上升，而在沒有大學文憑的女性中的支持率則略有上升。

And if we just look at his voters, he gained support with Black and Hispanic voters since 2020.

如果我們只看他的選民，他自2020年以來獲得了黑人和西班牙裔選民的支持。

They argued that Hispanic voters wouldn't be alienated but would be attracted to a crackdown on immigration at the border, illegal immigration at the border.

他們認為，西班牙裔選民不會被疏遠，反而會被打擊邊境移民、邊境非法移民所吸引。

And that many Black voters are culturally conservative and would respond to a culturally conservative message from Republicans.

許多黑人選民在文化上是保守的，他們會對共和黨人傳達的文化保守資訊做出迴應。

This election suggests that that strategy is working.

這次選舉表明，這一戰略正在發揮作用。

I believe their values are more in line with my culture as well as my family culture and values.

我相信他們的價值觀更符合我的文化以及我的家庭文化和價值觀。

So is the strategy to appeal to young men.

If you look at how voters 45 and older voted in 2020 and in 2024, their support didn't change much.

如果看看 45 歲及以上選民在 2020 年和 2024 年的投票情況，他們的支持率並沒有太大變化。

But when you look at younger voters, that's where things change.

但是，當你觀察年輕選民時，情況就會發生變化。

In 2020, voters under 30 went for President Joe Biden by a 25-point margin.

2020 年，30 歲以下的選民以 25 個百分點的優勢支持喬-拜登總統。

But in 2024, voters under 30 went for Harris by only a 5-point margin.

但在2024年，30歲以下的選民支持哈里斯的比例僅為5個百分點。

One presumption that seems totally to have exploded in this election is the idea that young voters are uniformly liberal.

在這次選舉中，有一種假定似乎完全爆炸了，那就是認為年輕選民一律都是自由派。

To understand this shift, let's look only at how men voted.

要理解這種轉變，我們先來看看男性的投票情況。

In 2020, young men supported Biden by 15 points.

2020 年，年輕人對拜登的支持率高達 15 個百分點。

2024 年，這一支持率發生了變化。

而年輕男性支持特朗普的比例為 13%。

Trump spent a lot of time campaigning specifically to young men.

特朗普花了大量時間專門針對年輕人開展競選活動。

He went to Ultimate Fighting Championship competitions.

He went on multiple podcasts where the audience is primarily young men.

他參加了多個播客，聽眾主要是年輕男性。

You ever been in a fistfight, Mr. President?

He produced a video with the golfer Bryson DeChambeau.

他與高爾夫球手布賴森-德尚博（Bryson DeChambeau）一起製作了一段視頻。

For a while, it was the number one trending video on YouTube.

一時間，它成為 YouTube 上最熱門的視頻。

What Trump did to win was really broaden this base of working-class voters, bringing in more men and more Black and Hispanic voters.

特朗普獲勝的真正原因是擴大了工人階級選民的基礎，帶來了更多男性、更多黑人和西班牙裔選民。

This is important because it shows the Republican Party has a path to future growth.

這一點很重要，因為它表明共和黨有一條通往未來發展的道路。

It's not just going to try to squeeze more votes out of a shrinking group in the electorate.

這不僅僅是為了從一個日益縮小的選民群體中榨取更多選票。

 It was able to supplement white working-class voters with those from these other groups.

它能夠用這些其他群體的選民來補充白人工人階級選民。

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這個核心選民群體如何讓特朗普贏得 2024 年大選 | WSJ State of the Stat (How This Core Voter Group Delivered Trump the 2024 Election | WSJ State of the Stat)

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