Name: 特朗普獲勝！經濟學家解釋這對世界意味著什麼 (Trump won! Economist explains what it means for the world)
Uploaded: 2024-11-07T02:58:54.000Z
Duration: 8 min 8 s

Donald Trump is back at the helm of the world's largest and most important economy.

唐納德-特朗普重新執掌世界最大、最重要的經濟體。

關係子句

An economy that is the main export market for the world's biggest economies and, crucially, an economy that produces the world's reserve currency, the mighty US dollar.

這個經濟體是世界最大經濟體的主要出口市場，更重要的是，它還是世界儲備貨幣--強大的美元--的生產國。

So far, the dollar has jumped, while currencies of major exporters like the Mexican peso and Japanese yen have slumped.

到目前為止，美元跳漲，而墨西哥比索和日元等主要出口國的貨幣則下滑。

On top of that, Trump has literally said that Under my leadership, we're going to take other countries' jobs.

除此之外，特朗普還說，在我的上司下，我們將搶走其他國家的工作。

Did you ever hear that expression before?

So does this mean that Trump's plans will enrich the US and make the rest of us poorer?

那麼，這是否意味著特朗普的計劃會讓美國更富裕，讓我們其他人更貧窮？

That is the question we'll be going over for each of these two key economic policies, starting with the one Donald Trump has been obsessing over since the 1980s.

這就是我們要逐一討論的這兩項關鍵經濟政策的問題，從唐納德-特朗普自上世紀 80 年代以來一直執著的政策開始。

Trade policy, where while Trump used to obsess over Japan, the United States has now been overtaken by China as the world's most important producer.

在貿易政策方面，雖然特朗普曾經對日本念念不忘，但美國現在已經被中國超越，成為世界上最重要的生產國。

But crucially, as you can see here, when it comes to being the most important source of demand, the US is still the world's most important importer.

但至關重要的是，正如您在這裡所看到的，說到最重要的需求來源，美國仍然是世界上最重要的進口國。

Indeed, as you can see here in this graph from the IMF, almost all of the surpluses from systemic exporter countries like China, Japan, Gulf states and Germany are absorbed by demand from the United States, which is represented by the dark orange bars.

事實上，從國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的這幅圖中可以看到，中國、日本、海灣國家和德國等系統性出口國的盈餘幾乎全部被美國的需求所吸收，而美國的需求則由深橙色柱狀圖表示。

Therefore, continued demand from the United States is crucial to the global economy, and especially for systemic exporters like China, Japan and Germany.

是以，美國的持續需求對全球經濟至關重要，尤其是對中國、日本和德國等系統性出口國而言。

Ever since Trump first came to power in 2016, the US has been trying to desperately decrease its imports and increase its exports.

自 2016 年特朗普上臺以來，美國一直在拼命減少進口，增加出口。

Trump did this by imposing tariffs on the world, and especially China.

特朗普的做法是向全世界，尤其是中國徵收關稅。

On the other hand, Biden preferred to dole out subsidies to US-based manufacturers while keeping in place and even increasing some Trump tariffs against China.

另一方面，拜登傾向於向美國製造商發放補貼，同時保留甚至增加特朗普針對中國的一些關稅。

So what can the world expect from Trump now?

那麼，現在世界對特朗普能有什麼期待呢？

First of all, Trump is likely to cut Biden's signature subsidies, especially to green energy producers.

首先，特朗普很可能會削減拜登標誌性的補貼，尤其是對綠色能源生產商的補貼。

The world's exporters will be happy about that, but they will hate the fact that tariffs are now back on the menu.

世界出口商會為此感到高興，但他們會痛恨關稅現在又回到了菜單上。

Tariffs against China, but crucially also against any country that displeases Mr Trump.

對中國徵收關稅，但更重要的是對任何令特朗普先生不滿的國家徵收關稅。

And which country displeases Trump the most?

Well, it's mostly countries that run a big trade deficit with the US.

嗯，主要是那些與美國有巨大貿易逆差的國家。

But notably, countries can get in Trump's good graces if they buy a lot of military equipment from the US or if they do a lot of NATO spending relieving the US elsewhere.

但值得注意的是，如果一些國家從美國購買了大量軍事裝備，或者在北約中為美國提供了大量開支，就能獲得特朗普的青睞。

This is why trade surplus countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel managed to stay in Trump's good graces while Mexico, Germany and Japan, and of course China, were consistently under threat of increased tariffs last time around.

這就是為什麼像沙特阿拉伯和以色列這樣的貿易順差國能夠得到特朗普的青睞，而墨西哥、德國和日本，當然還有中國，在上一次卻一直受到增加關稅的威脅。

Surprisingly though, even these exporters could still end up exporting more to the United States under Trump, not less.

但令人驚訝的是，即使是這些出口商，在特朗普的上司下，最終對美國的出口仍然可能增加，而不是減少。

You see, while tariffs will likely hurt exports to the US, last time around Trump turned out to be a big spender, slashing taxes for most Americans and giving them stimulus tax.

要知道，雖然關稅很可能會損害對美國的出口，但特朗普上一次卻成了大款，他削減了大多數美國人的稅收，並向他們發放刺激稅。

This made Americans richer, allowing them to spend a lot of that on more imports.

這讓美國人變得更加富有，使他們能夠將大量財富用於購買更多進口商品。

Therefore, despite his rhetoric, the trade deficit doubled under Trump the last time.

是以，儘管特朗普誇誇其談，但在他上一次執政期間，貿易逆差還是翻了一番。

So will Trump again be a paper tiger, threatening with tariffs while implementing tax cuts that increase US demand for global goods?

那麼，特朗普會不會再次成為紙老虎，一邊以關稅相威脅，一邊實施減稅政策，從而增加美國對全球商品的需求？

I think that now for a large part depends on Trump's billionaire friend, Elon Musk, who Trump promised will head the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency.

我認為，現在這在很大程度上取決於特朗普的億萬富翁朋友埃隆-馬斯克，特朗普承諾將由他上司新成立的政府效率部。

This agency will be charged with sweeping spending cuts.

Spending cuts that could be so drastic that they will plunge the US into recession.

大幅削減開支可能會使美國陷入衰退。

At least, that is what Musk has hinted at on X.

至少，馬斯克在 X 上是這麼暗示的。

If the US ends up in a recession, its citizens will of course have far fewer dollars to spend on imports.

如果美國最終陷入經濟衰退，其國民可用於進口的美元當然會大大減少。

In that case, Trump 2.0 could actually be a disaster for the global economy.

在這種情況下，特朗普 2.0 實際上可能成為全球經濟的災難。

So will Trump again be a big spender or will Trump and his new buddy Elon crash global markets?

那麼，特朗普會再次大手大腳，還是特朗普和他的新夥伴埃隆會讓全球市場崩潰？

So far, financial markets are betting that Elon's spending cut plans will be more like his failed Vegas tunnel than his SpaceX rockets, as the mighty US dollar shot up right after it became clear that Trump won the election.

到目前為止，金融市場打賭埃隆的削減開支計劃將更像他失敗的拉斯維加斯隧道，而不是他的 SpaceX 火箭，因為強大的美元在特朗普贏得大選後立即飆升。

This likely happened because currency traders were betting that Trump will spend more, causing inflation and this then will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to counter that inflation.

出現這種情況很可能是因為貨幣交易員們押注特朗普將增加支出，從而引發通貨膨脹，進而導致美聯儲提高利率以應對通貨膨脹。

Then higher interest rates will attract more foreign capital to US markets, causing the dollar to rise.

那麼，較高的利率將吸引更多的外國資本進入美國市場，從而導致美元升值。

This is the second key effect Trump's spending will have on the global economy, which relies heavily on borrowing and lending in US dollars.

這是特朗普的支出將對全球經濟產生的第二個關鍵影響，因為全球經濟嚴重依賴美元借貸。

So while increased spending on the one hand may help the global economy, this will partially be offset by the fact that the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates, which will make global dollar borrowing and spending more costly.

是以，儘管增加支出一方面可能有助於全球經濟，但美聯儲將不得不提高利率，這將使全球美元借貸和支出成本增加，從而部分抵消了增加支出的作用。

This will especially hurt global dollar borrowers like Egypt, Turkey and Argentina, even though it may help global dollar lenders like China, Japan and Germany.

這尤其會損害埃及、土耳其和阿根廷等全球美元借款國的利益，儘管這可能會幫助中國、日本和德國等全球美元貸款國。

On the other hand, if the Elon scenario happens and global trade crashes, we can expect the Federal Reserve to partially offset this by lowering interest rates instead.

另一方面，如果埃隆的情況發生，全球貿易崩潰，我們可以預期美聯儲會通過降低利率來部分抵消這一影響。

So in conclusion, Trump having won means that the global economy faces two fairly extreme scenarios.

總之，特朗普獲勝意味著全球經濟將面臨兩種相當極端的情況。

The first scenario is the Trump 1.0 boom scenario with higher US imports and higher interest rates, benefiting exporters despite the threat of tariffs.

第一種情景是特朗普 1.0 繁榮情景，美國進口增加，利率上升，儘管有關稅威脅，但出口商仍從中受益。

The second scenario is the Elon Musk austerity scenario, which will lead to lower trade and lower interest rates, ruining exporters while potentially providing some relief for global borrowers.

第二種情況是埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）的緊縮方案，這將導致貿易下降和利率降低，在毀掉出口商的同時，也可能為全球借款人提供一些救濟。

Right now, financial markets believe the Trump 1.0 boom scenario with higher US spending, inflation and interest rates is the most likely.

目前，金融市場認為最有可能出現特朗普 1.0 繁榮局面，即美國支出、通脹和利率上升。

I personally would not bet money on it though, as Millet in Argentina has shown that radical right-wing spending cuts do sometimes actually materialize, leading to a recession.

不過，我個人不願意為此下賭注，因為阿根廷的米萊已經證明，激進右翼削減開支有時確實會導致經濟衰退。

One thing is certain though, and that is that this type of radical uncertainty is bad news for the long-term attractiveness of the US dollar as a global reserve currency and for global trade in general.

但有一點是肯定的，那就是這種劇烈的不確定性對美元作為全球儲備貨幣的長期吸引力和全球貿易總體而言都是個壞消息。

That being said, as this graph has shown, global trade has been unbalanced for decades now.

儘管如此，正如本圖所示，幾十年來全球貿易一直處於不平衡狀態。

Key Trump economic advisor Scott Besant recently said that the US, under Trump, does actually not want to abandon the global economic order, but rather reform it to make it less imbalanced.

特朗普的重要經濟顧問斯科特-貝桑特最近表示，特朗普治下的美國實際上並不想放棄全球經濟秩序，而是要改革全球經濟秩序，使其不再失衡。

Indeed, many well-respected economists have argued that the current dollar-based economic order is ultimately unsustainable and leads to increased inequality within both major exporters and major importers.

事實上，許多備受推崇的經濟學家都認為，當前以美元為基礎的經濟秩序最終是不可持續的，會導致主要出口國和主要進口國內部的不平等加劇。

At least, that was a major part of Mr. Besant's argument that he published in The Economist, the sponsor of today's video.

至少，這是貝桑特先生在《經濟學人》（今天視頻的贊助商）上發表的論點的主要部分。

If you want to get into more depth about what the Trump administration will do on a global scale, I highly recommend to check out the full article in The Economist.

如果您想更深入地瞭解特朗普政府將在全球範圍內做些什麼，我強烈建議您查閱《經濟學人》的全文。

Then I suggest you follow up with this article, published by Trump aide Nadia Shadlow, about how Europe can best work with Trump.

然後，我建議您繼續閱讀特朗普助手納迪婭-沙德洛（Nadia Shadlow）發表的這篇文章，瞭解歐洲如何才能最好地與特朗普合作。

Finally, I'd recommend this article about the tail risk of the new Trump administration.

最後，我推薦這篇關於特朗普新政府尾部風險的文章。

Such extensive coverage of arguments from both sides is exactly why I'm excited to share that money and macro viewers can now get 20% off an annual subscription to The Economist, which gives you full access to their daily in-depth global reporting for an entire year.

對正反兩方面的論點都有如此廣泛的報道，是以我很高興地告訴大家，現在訂閱《經濟學人》年刊，可以享受八折優惠。

What I love about The Economist is that they stand for independent journalism for independent thinkers.

我喜歡《經濟學人》的原因在於，他們代表著獨立思考者的獨立新聞。

This is why they've been part of my media diet long before I started this channel.

這就是為什麼早在我開設這個頻道之前，它們就一直是我媒體飲食的一部分。

Whether you prefer the print edition or their digital weekly edition, you'll always stay ahead of the news, no matter where you are.

無論您是喜歡印刷版還是電子週刊，無論您身在何處，都能隨時掌握新聞動態。

Click the link in the description or top comment.

點擊說明或頂部評論中的鏈接。

 Or head over to economist.com slash moneymacro to claim your exclusive 20% discount today.

或者訪問 economist.com slash moneymacro，今天就可以享受獨享的 20% 折扣。