But first, so John, we were already on Good Morning America.

但首先，約翰，我們已經上了《早安美國》。

You were talking about messaging.

你說的是資訊傳遞。

And then afterwards you spoke with the former president.

之後，你與前總統進行了交談。

Tell us about that.

說來聽聽。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊。

He was, well, first the headliners, he was watching Weekend Good Morning America, which is good.

他是，嗯，首先是頭條新聞，他在看《週末早安美國》，這很好。

Sounds like a great headline to me.

在我看來，這是個不錯的標題。

That's a good thing.

這是好事。

That's a good thing.

這是好事。

Look, what I had said on the show was that, you know, the Republican Party, the Trump campaign actually has a very coherent and very clear closing message.

聽著，我在節目中說過，共和黨、特朗普競選團隊實際上有一個非常連貫、非常清晰的結束語。

And that is, they argue, and you can dispute this, but they argue life was much better when Donald Trump was president.

他們認為，唐納德-特朗普擔任總統時，生活要好得多，你們可以對此提出異議。

Inflation was lower.

通貨膨脹率較低。

The economy was better.

經濟狀況有所改善。

We weren't at war.

我們並沒有開戰。

There weren't wars raging in Ukraine and in the Middle East.

烏克蘭和中東沒有戰火紛飛。

Things were better than they are now.

情況比現在要好。

It's like, are you better off now than you were four years ago is the closing argument.

這就好比，你現在比四年前過得好嗎？

Trump says that at the beginning of every rally, but then he goes off into, you know, totally different directions, whether it's talking about Liz Cheney should be staring down the barrel, you know, nine rifles.

特朗普在每次集會開始時都會這麼說，但隨後他就會進入完全不同的方向，你知道的，無論是談論莉茲-切尼（Liz Cheney）應該盯著槍管，你知道的，九把步槍。

Just one of those things that when not a lot can surprise you and shock you.

這只是其中的一件事，當它並不常見時，也會讓你感到驚訝和震撼。

That was truly shocking to me.

這確實讓我感到震驚。

That was like beyond.

這就像超越。

That was beyond.

那是超越。

And, you know, it's a dark, ominous, divisive message coming from Trump himself that isn't so much what the campaign is trying to do.

要知道，這是特朗普本人發出的黑暗、不祥、分裂的資訊，與競選團隊的初衷大相徑庭。

Yeah.

是啊

So I said that.

所以我就這麼說了。

And then I talked to him on the phone and he took it.

然後我跟他通了電話，他接受了。

So I have a message.

所以我有一個消息。

I have a great message.

我有一個很好的消息。

And I kind of pushed back a little bit with him and said, well, there's the weave.

我有點反駁他說，好吧，這就是編織。

You know, he talks about the weave.

你知道，他談到了編織。

Yeah.

是啊

About his speech kind of goes like this and it goes like this.

他的演講大致是這樣的。

And he said something interesting.

他還說了一些有趣的話。

I hadn't heard him say.

我沒聽他說過。

He says, well, the weave is what got me elected president.

他說，是編織讓我當選總統的。

That's interesting.

這很有趣。

You know, and part of it, you know, but but look, it's he's engaged.

部分原因是他訂婚了

There was no one other interesting thing.

沒有其他有趣的事情了。

I said, is there any way you could lose?

我說，你有可能輸嗎？

Because he talks about how I'm up in all the battleground states, et cetera, et cetera.

因為他說我在所有的戰場州都佔據上風，諸如此類。

And he was kind of he said, yeah, yeah, I guess so.

他說，是的，是的，我想是的。

No bad things can happen.

不會有壞事發生。

I was fascinated by that when you put your reporting out internally, obviously, the Harris campaign says that Trump appears to be unraveling.

當你在內部發布報道時，我對此很感興趣，很明顯，哈里斯競選團隊說特朗普似乎正在解體。

They highlighted moments from his North Carolina rally where he said, you know, he's in trouble if he loses some of the other concerning things that we talked about.

他們強調了他在北卡羅來納州集會上的一些時刻，他在集會上說，你知道，如果他失去了我們談到的其他一些令人擔憂的事情，他就有麻煩了。

So he wants to him.

所以他想要他。

How are him and his allies responding to that, though?

他和他的盟友對此有何反應？

You know, look, I talked to a very close ally, longtime ally of Donald Trump just yesterday who said Trump has never gone into a general election with a lead and that he seems it almost seems to this person as if he's trying to lose.

你知道，聽著，我昨天剛和一位非常親密的盟友，唐納德-特朗普的長期盟友聊過，他說特朗普從未在大選中領先過，在這個人看來，他幾乎是在試圖輸掉大選。

So there's a real frustration that he hasn't you know, that he's done so many things that seems so blatantly self-destructive.

他做了那麼多明目張膽的自我毀滅的事情，這確實讓人感到沮喪。

You're trying to close the deal.

你正在努力達成交易。

You're trying to reach out to the last remaining persuadable voters.

你在努力接觸僅存的可被說服的選民。

And there are persuadable voters.

還有一些可被說服的選民。

And they're more intense and more numerically significant at the end because the people that have made up their mind have voted a lot of them.

最後的投票更加激烈，數量也更多，因為已經下定決心的人投了很多票。

And you have to get voters not just to persuade them if they're trying to decide between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but to persuade them to vote or not to vote.

如果選民想在卡馬拉-哈里斯（Kamala Harris）和唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）之間做出選擇，你不僅要說服他們，還要說服他們投票或不投票。

And a Madison Square rally like we saw with all that, some of it absolutely blatant, hateful, racist rhetoric that we heard there or the kind of violent rhetoric that we heard with his comments on Liz Cheney.

在麥迪遜廣場的集會上，我們聽到了一些赤裸裸的、充滿仇恨的、種族主義的言論，或者是他對利茲-切尼（Liz Cheney）的評論所引發的暴力言論。

This is not the way you're going to reach those final voters.

這不是你接觸最終選民的方式。

Yeah.

是啊

And to that point, there is actually a poll out of Iowa.

關於這一點，愛荷華州確實有一項民意調查。

And I'm sorry to put you on the spot.

很抱歉讓你為難了。

Oh, yeah, yeah.

哦，是的，是的。

Absolutely.

當然可以。

It's making headlines.

這是頭條新聞。

And people are talking about it because it shows Kamala Harris leapfrogging over Trump and being up maybe three points.

人們對此議論紛紛，因為它顯示卡馬拉-哈里斯（Kamala Harris）一舉超過特朗普，並領先三個百分點。

I mean, obviously, Iowa is not one of those battleground states, but they specifically pointed to older women.

我的意思是，愛荷華州顯然不是那些戰場州之一，但他們特別指出了老年婦女。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Hey, hey, look, Trump won Iowa by eight points last time, won by even bigger margin before.

嘿，嘿，聽著，特朗普上次在艾奧瓦州贏了8個百分點，之前贏的幅度更大。

Nobody expects that Kamala Harris is going to win in Iowa.

沒人指望卡馬拉-哈里斯會在艾奧瓦州獲勝。

And then this poll hits.

然後這項民意調查就來了。

And a little bit of background on this poll, because I've been following the Des Moines Register's poll for as long as I've been covering politics, pretty much.

先介紹一下這次民調的背景，因為我一直在關注《得梅因紀事報》的民調，就像我一直在報道政治一樣。

And I remember very vividly when they were polling on the Iowa caucuses in 2008.

我清楚地記得，2008年他們對艾奧瓦州黨團會議進行民意調查時的情景。

You remember when Hillary Clinton was the de facto Democratic nominee.

你還記得希拉里-克林頓（Hillary Clinton）是民主黨事實上的提名人嗎。

And I remember it.

我記得

I think it came out on a Sunday night.

我想它是在週日晚上發行的。

It might have been.

可能是

So don't quote me.

所以不要引用我的話。

It was it was over the weekend.

是在週末。

And I remember the particularly the Obama people who thought they felt something happening in Iowa.

我記得特別是奧巴馬的人，他們覺得在艾奧瓦州發生了什麼。

They were refreshing their their pages, waiting for that poll to clear.

他們在刷新自己的網頁，等待投票結果出來。

And it cleared and it showed Obama beating Hillary Clinton.

結果顯示奧巴馬擊敗了希拉里-克林頓。

And Obama did beat Hillary Clinton, obviously, in 2008 in Iowa.

2008年，奧巴馬在艾奧瓦州擊敗了希拉里-克林頓。

And then last time around, by the way, that poll, which also came out the weekend before the election in 2020, it had Trump winning by seven points, ended up winning by eight.

順便說一下，上次的民調也是在2020年大選前的週末出爐的，當時特朗普以7個百分點的優勢獲勝，但最終以8個百分點獲勝。

So it's got a very good track record.

是以，它有非常良好的記錄。

Is it accurate?

準確嗎？

I mean, even among pollsters, this is like, yeah, I mean, I mean, look, who knows?

我的意思是，即使是在民調機構中，這也是一樣，是的，我的意思是，我的意思是，你看，誰知道呢？

Who knows?

誰知道呢？

I like I said, I don't hear too many people who seriously think that Trump is going to win in Iowa.

就像我說的，我沒有聽到太多人認真地認為特朗普會在艾奧瓦州獲勝。

But the question is, does the poll, remember, polls have a margin of error, obviously.

但問題是，民調是否有誤差，記住，民調顯然是有誤差範圍的。

And if Trump is going to narrowly win Iowa, if it's reflecting something like that, that is a that is a potentially an earthquake, because that means he's doing well with the kind of Midwestern voters that could well drive the races in Wisconsin and in Michigan, perhaps Pennsylvania.

如果特朗普將以微弱優勢贏得艾奧瓦州，如果它反映出類似情況，那就是一場潛在的地震，因為這意味著他在中西部選民中的表現很好，而這些選民很可能會推動威斯康星州、密歇根州、賓夕法尼亞州的競選。

It is fascinating to watch.

它令人目不暇接。

That's why the producers have been telling me to wrap up.

這就是製片人讓我收尾的原因。

But, John, this is so fascinating.

但是，約翰，這太吸引人了。

Well, that's why I took my earpiece out so they couldn't hear me.

所以我才把耳機拿出來，這樣他們就聽不見了。

I appreciate that, John.

我很感激，約翰。

All right.

好的

Thank you so much.

非常感謝。

And make sure to watch this week on ABC News Live right here.

請務必收看本週的 ABC 新聞直播。