Wolf, here it is.

狼來了

The path to 270.

通往 270 的道路

The red states are in Trump's column.

紅色各州已進入特朗普的陣營。

The blue states are in Harris' column for the purpose of this exercise.

在本練習中，藍州在哈里斯一欄。

And we've got seven remaining yellow toss-up battleground states.

我們還剩下七個黃色的戰場州。

And as you know, those battleground states are razor-thin.

眾所周知，這些戰場上的州都是勢單力薄的。

Look, these are our poll-a-polls in the battleground states.

聽著，這些是我們在戰場州進行的民調。

No clear leader in any of them, in any of these battleground states.

在這些戰場上的任何一個州，都沒有明顯的領先者。

So this is razor-thin.

所以，這是很薄的。

So what is the path to victory for each candidate?

那麼，每位候選人的獲勝之路又是怎樣的呢？

Well, the Harris campaign will say that their best, most direct path to 270 electoral votes is through the blue wall.

哈里斯競選團隊會說，他們獲得270張選舉人票的最好、最直接的途徑就是通過藍牆。

If she were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she'd be at 270 electoral votes and the next president.

如果她贏得賓夕法尼亞州、密歇根州和威斯康星州，她將獲得 270 張選舉人票，成為下一任總統。

But what if Donald Trump repeats his 2016 victory in Pennsylvania?

但如果唐納德-特朗普在賓夕法尼亞州再次取得 2016 年的勝利呢？

Then Harris drops down to 251, and she has to go hunting in the Sun Belt to find some more votes.

然後，哈里斯的選票下降到 251 張，她不得不去 "太陽帶 "尋找更多選票。

Certainly, if she were able to flip North Carolina from red to blue this time, that would get her knocking on the door to 270.

當然，如果這次她能讓北卡羅來納州從紅色變為藍色，那她就能敲開270人的大門。

And then maybe Nevada behaves like it has for Democrats in recent cycles, and that would put Harris over the top in that scenario.

然後，也許內華達州的表現就像最近幾個週期民主黨人的表現一樣，在這種情況下，哈里斯就會勝出。

What about Donald Trump's path?

唐納德-特朗普的道路如何？

Well, let's reset the map.

好吧，讓我們重新設定地圖。

Seven yellow battleground states.

七個黃色戰場州

And Donald Trump's most direct path is to hang on to North Carolina.

而唐納德-特朗普最直接的途徑就是守住北卡羅來納州。

That is the state he won by the narrowest margin four years ago.

這是他四年前以最微弱優勢獲勝的州。

In fact, it's the only state he won of the seven battleground states.

事實上，這是他在七個戰場州中唯一獲勝的州。

And let's say he flips Georgia back.

假設他把喬治亞翻了回來。

You'll recall he famously lost it by just fewer than 12,000 votes.

你一定還記得，他曾以不到 12000 票的劣勢輸掉了這場著名的選舉。

So let's say that ends up back in his column.

所以，讓我們說，這最終回到了他的專欄。

And let's say he does get that Pennsylvania victory repeated from 2016.

假設他真的重演了 2016 年賓夕法尼亞州的勝利。

That's it.

就是這樣。

He'll be at 270 electoral votes.

他將獲得 270 張選舉人票。

He doesn't need any of the rest of the battleground states.

他不需要任何其他的戰場州。

But what if Harris does pull it out in Pennsylvania?

但是，如果哈里斯真的在賓夕法尼亞州扳回一城呢？

Then where does Donald Trump go for the next 19 electoral votes?

那麼，唐納德-特朗普又該如何獲得接下來的 19 張選舉人票呢？

Well, even if he were to win Nevada and Arizona out West, that still would not get him to 270.

即使他贏得了西部的內華達州和亞利桑那州，也無法達到 270 人。

He would need at least one of the other remaining so-called blue wall states such as Michigan.

他至少需要密歇根州等其他剩餘的所謂 "藍牆州 "中的一個州。

And that would do the trick and get him over the top at 283.

這樣一來，他的 283 分就能超過最高分。

Let's go to John King.

我們來聽聽約翰-金的意見。

He's at the magic wall.

他在魔法牆那裡

You know, and John, you know, it's those individual groups, whether you're talking about Arab Americans in Michigan or Jewish voters or Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.

你知道，約翰，你知道，無論是密歇根州的阿拉伯裔美國人，還是賓夕法尼亞州的猶太裔選民或波多黎各選民，都是這些個別群體。

You know, everyone's talking about such specific groups because we keep hearing about how this is one of the tightest races in history.

你知道，每個人都在談論這些特定的群體，因為我們一直聽說這是歷史上最激烈的競選之一。

We'll see if that's really the case.

讓我們拭目以待。

How do you see it two days out?

兩天後你怎麼看？

The data tell us it is the closest race in the 10.

數據告訴我們，這是 10 選區中最接近的一場比賽。

This is my 10th presidential election.

這是我第 10 次參加總統選舉。

There's never been one this close, according to the numbers.

根據數據顯示，從未有過如此接近的比賽。

But they do sometimes break late.

但它們有時確實會遲到。

So you should prepare yourself for any possibility of outcomes, a split back and forth between the states.

是以，您應該為任何可能出現的結果做好準備，即州與州之間的來回分裂。

Or you could prepare yourself that one candidate does have late momentum and runs up most of the battleground states.

或者，您也可以做好心理準備，相信某位候選人確實有後發制人的勢頭，並在大部分戰場州取得勝利。

Either one of those scenarios, a sort of a split decision, a boxing match or somebody sweeping most of them is possible.

這些情況中的任何一種都有可能發生，比如分出勝負、拳擊比賽或有人橫掃其中的大多數。

So let's go through some of the numbers.

讓我們來看看這些數字。

And why do I say that?

我為什麼這麼說呢？

Let's start in the blue wall states.

讓我們從藍牆州開始。

Right.

對

Look at these.

看看這些。

Forgive me for turning my back.

請原諒我的背棄。

Just want to stretch this out a little bit so people can see it more clearly at home.

我只是想把時間拉長一點，讓大家在家也能看得更清楚。

This is the CNN poll of polls.

這是 CNN 民調中的民調。

You're right.

你說得對。

There were some New York Times data out today.

紐約時報》今天發佈了一些數據。

There are some hints of maybe a little bit of Harris momentum in there.

有一些跡象表明，哈里斯的勢頭可能有點猛。

The Sunday before the election, I always lapse back into caution mode.

選舉前的那個星期天，我總是重新進入謹慎模式。

Right.

對

Let's be careful.

我們要小心。

Let's let people vote.

讓人們投票吧。

Let's be respectful of the process.

讓我們尊重這個過程。

And let's look at the average of the polls.

讓我們看看民調的平均值。

That's the safest way to do it.

這是最安全的方法。

Forty nine.

四十九

Forty six in Wisconsin.

威斯康星州有 46 個。

So you could say Harris is the lead.

所以可以說哈里斯是主角。

That's so close.

好險

It's you know, that's a statistical tie.

這是統計上的平局。

But forty eight.

但是四十八

Forty six in Michigan.

密歇根州有 46 個。

Forty eight.

48.

Forty eight.

48.

An actual tie in, of course, battleground Pennsylvania.

當然，是在賓夕法尼亞州的戰場上打成平手。

So let me just shrink this down and take it off to the side a little bit and put it down here and then we'll do this one.

所以，讓我先把這個縮小，然後把它移到旁邊一點，放在這裡，然後我們再做這個。

So that's the blue wall states.

這就是藍牆州。

What about the Sunbelt states?

陽光地帶各州的情況如何？

Right.

對

So forgive me again.

請再次原諒我。

I just want to stretch it out.

我只是想把它拉長。

North Carolina.

北卡羅來納州。

Trump with a one point edge.

特朗普以一個點的優勢領先。

That's the statistical tie.

這就是統計上的平局。

No clear leader.

沒有明確的領導者。

Georgia.

格魯吉亞。

Same thing.

一樣的。

Trump.

特朗普

Forty nine.

四十九

Harris.

哈里斯

Forty seven.

47.

So the Trump campaign say we're ahead a little bit.

所以特朗普競選團隊說我們領先一點點。

I would say then that means who turns out it's going to affect that.

我想說的是，這意味著誰出來都會有影響。

And Arizona.

還有亞利桑那州。

Again, Trump consistently has had a tiny lead in Arizona.

同樣，特朗普在亞利桑那州的領先優勢一直很小。

Small in Arizona.

亞利桑那州小

Forty nine.

四十九

Forty seven.

47.

Again, certainly advantage Trump by the numbers, but within reach for the vice president.

同樣，從數字上看，特朗普肯定佔優勢，但對副總統來說，也是唾手可得。

It's that close.

就差那麼一點。

So, you know, when you look at all this and you talk about how it could, you know, late break either way or something very close is very close in every state, but sort of all ends up being very close going towards one candidate.

所以，你知道，當你看到這一切，你談論它如何可能，你知道，晚打破任何一種方式，或非常接近的東西是非常接近在每一個狀態，但排序所有最終是非常接近走向一個候選人。

I mean, how does all this play out, John, when you look at the path to 270?

我的意思是，約翰，當你看到通往270的道路時，這一切是如何發生的？

So let's take this literally, as in let's assume it played out exactly like our averages say on the Sunday before.

是以，讓我們按照字面意思來理解，就像我們假設前一個星期天的情況與我們的平均值完全一樣。

Right.

對

So you have Harris gets Wisconsin.

所以哈里斯得到了威斯康星州。

Harris gets Michigan.

哈里斯得到密歇根。

Pennsylvania is an actual tie.

賓夕法尼亞州打成平手。

All right.

好的

Donald Trump would get North Carolina in that scenario.

在這種情況下，唐納德-特朗普將獲得北卡羅來納州。

There we go.

好了

Make it red.

讓它變成紅色。

Donald Trump will get Georgia in that scenario.

在這種情況下，唐納德-特朗普將獲得佐治亞州。

Make it red.

讓它變成紅色。

Donald Trump gets Arizona in that scenario.

在這種情況下，唐納德-特朗普會得到亞利桑那州。

Make it red.

讓它變成紅色。

Where does that leave you?

你又能做什麼呢？

Look at this.

看看這個。

We don't have any recent polling.

我們沒有最近的民意調查。

We don't have enough to have a poll of polls in Nevada.

我們在內華達州的民調還不夠多。

So we're leaving that one as a toss up.

是以，我們把這個問題作為一個折騰的問題。

But under that scenario, just giving them as we have them in our battleground poll of polls right now. 262 for Trump. 251 for Harris.

但在這種情況下，根據我們現在的戰場民調結果。特朗普262票哈里斯251票

Doesn't matter really who would win Nevada in that case.

在這種情況下，誰能贏得內華達州其實並不重要。

It would get Harris to 257.

這將使哈里斯達到 257 歲。

It would get Trump to 268.

這將使特朗普達到 268 人。

So let's, for the sake of this argument, leave it yellow as a toss up, because the point is it all comes down to battleground Pennsylvania.

是以，為了辯論起見，我們暫且將其定為折中結果，因為關鍵在於賓夕法尼亞州的選情。

In this scenario, if everything plays out exactly the way it averages out right now, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and gets to be president of the United States.

在這種情況下，如果一切都按照現在的平均方式進行，那麼誰贏得賓夕法尼亞州，誰就能贏得賓夕法尼亞大道 1600 號，併成為美國總統。

So that is why the campaigns have spent more in Pennsylvania, Aaron, than any other state.

這就是為什麼競選團隊在賓夕法尼亞州投入的資金比其他州都要多，亞倫。

And by a huge margin, it's not really even close because they understand it's the biggest prize. 19 electoral votes.

而且差距很大，甚至不相上下，因為他們知道這是最大的獎賞。19張選舉人票

And whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to win the White House.

誰贏得賓夕法尼亞州，誰就有可能贏得白宮。

I will say this.

我要說的是

Harris does have an advantage here.

哈里斯在這方面確實有優勢。

She does have an advantage here.

她在這方面確實有優勢。

That's the third blue wall state.

這是第三個藍牆州。

Those three states have voted together since 1992.

自 1992 年以來，這三個州一直共同投票。

So if that pattern were to continue, that would be for Harris.

是以，如果這種模式繼續下去，那將是對哈里斯而言。

But as you know, rules are sometimes made to be broken.

但你也知道，規則有時就是用來打破的。

And those are the three states that made Donald Trump president.

就是這三個州讓唐納德-特朗普當上了總統。

That was the big surprise in 2016, remember, when he crashed the blue wall and won all three of them.

這就是 2016 年的最大驚喜，還記得嗎，當時他撞破了藍牆，贏得了全部三場比賽。

That is equally conceivable.

這同樣是可以想象的。

The numbers are that close.

數字如此接近。

I mean, it is incredible how really any option.

我的意思是，這是令人難以置信的如何真的任何選項。

And then you would be able to look back historically and find a poll that would have supported the outcome that actually happens.

然後你就能回顧歷史，找到支持實際發生結果的民意調查。

So now can we talk about I know, you know, there's been a lot of discussion out there about hurting and whether a lot of the polls are sort of showing it razor thin.

現在我們能不能談談我知道的，你知道的，外面有很多關於傷害的討論，以及很多民調是否顯示出它的稀薄。

Some people are worried about being wrong.

有些人擔心自己錯了。

And then all of a sudden in walks the Des Moines Register poll.

然後，《得梅因紀事報》的民意調查突然出現了。

Harris ahead in Iowa, the Selzer poll and Selzer.

哈里斯在愛荷華州領先，塞爾澤民調和塞爾澤。

What stands out to you in that poll?

在這次民意調查中，你覺得最突出的是什麼？

I mean, certainly when I first saw it on Twitter and I didn't see who did it, I said, oh, is this one of those ones that, you know, people are just sort of putting out there and making up?

我的意思是，當然，當我第一次在推特上看到它時，我沒有看到是誰做的，我說，哦，這是不是那種，你知道，人們只是把它放在那裡，編造出來的？

And then I said, no, this is a gold standard poll.

然後我說，不，這是一個黃金標準民意調查。

Wow.

哇

This isn't expected.

這在意料之中。

What do you see in there?

你在裡面看到了什麼？

So Ann is one of the best in the business, right?

那麼，安是這一行裡最出色的人之一，對嗎？

Does that mean Kamala Harris is going to win Iowa?

這是否意味著卡馬拉-哈里斯將贏得愛荷華州？

No, it doesn't mean that.

不，不是這個意思。

And Ann would say that in a heartbeat.

安也會毫不猶豫地這麼說。

There's a margin of error.

誤差是有限度的。

Sometimes you're pulling in a snapshot of time.

有時，你正在拉動時間的快照。

So what was going on in the news when you were polling?

那麼，在您進行民意調查時，發生了什麼新聞？

Ann would be the last one to say it means Harris is going to win.

安是最後一個說這意味著哈里斯會獲勝的人。

But she'd be the first one to say her data, which is good data, says this is suddenly a very competitive race in battleground Iowa, which was not competitive.

但她會是第一個說她的數據是好數據的人，她的數據顯示，在戰場艾奧瓦州的競爭突然變得非常激烈，而艾奧瓦州的競爭原本並不激烈。

That's what, eight points back in 2020.

那是什麼，2020年落後8個百分點。

I think you have a graphic you could show me.

我想你可以給我看一張圖。

The biggest thing to me was the shift in independent women.

對我來說，最大的變化是獨立女性的轉變。

You have no clear leader in the state.

你們在州里沒有明確的領導者。

You also have independent women swinging to Harris.

你們也有獨立女性在哈里斯那裡搖擺。

So has Donald Trump hurt himself?

那麼，唐納德-特朗普是否傷害了自己？

Has Donald?

唐納德有嗎？

There it is right there. 57% of independent women say they're for Harris to 29% for Donald Trump.

就在那裡。57%的獨立女性表示支持哈里斯 29%支持唐納德-特朗普

So that's a big swing among women.

是以，這在女性中的影響很大。

Remember, this is the first presidential election post the Dobbs decision.

請記住，這是多布斯案判決後的第一次總統選舉。

This is the first presidential election after the last Iowa poll, which you mentioned was pretty close.

這是上次艾奧瓦州民調之後的首次總統大選，您也提到了上次民調的結果非常接近。

You know, Trump was ahead in the last Iowa poll, but that was narrowed too.

要知道，特朗普在上次艾奧瓦州民調中一度領先，但後來也縮小了差距。

Since just before that poll, the Iowa six week abortion ban kicked in.

就在那次民意調查之前，愛荷華州的六週墮胎禁令正式生效。

So it has now been the law of the land, if you will, in the state for months.

是以，如果你願意的話，幾個月來這已經成為該州的法律。

Right.

對

Is that having an impact in this race or something Trump has said in the last few days?

這對競選有影響嗎，還是特朗普最近幾天說了什麼？

I can tell you the last time I've been to Iowa three times this year, first, mostly around the caucuses.

我可以告訴你，今年我最後一次去愛荷華州三次，第一次，主要是在黨團會議前後。

Then I went back and visited our Trump voters right before the Democratic convention to see what they thought of Harris.

然後，我又在民主黨大會召開之前訪問了特朗普的選民，看看他們對哈里斯的看法如何。

Our focus then was on Trump voters.

我們當時的重點是特朗普的選民。

But while we were in the state, we were into a lot of Democrats who said, do not forget us.

但當我們在該州時，我們遇到了很多民主黨人，他們說，不要忘記我們。

We are energized by the vice president's pick.

我們為副總統的人選感到振奮。

And this is going to be a lot closer than you think.

這將比你想象的更接近。

Maybe they were right.

也許他們是對的。

Maybe.

也許吧

I mean, you know, it's anybody's guess.

我的意思是，你知道，這是任何人的猜測。

And of course, you know, if she ends up being right, then that is that is sure a capstone.

當然，你知道，如果她最終是對的，那就肯定是一個頂點。

It just puts another step.

這只是又邁出了一步。

It just tells you how close this environment is, that states that you didn't think were going to be in play just might be.

它只是告訴你，這個環境有多麼接近，你認為不會出現的州可能會出現。

That's why Tuesday is going to be interesting.

這就是為什麼週二會很有趣。