Mark Rutter described the development as a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security and also a sign that Russia's President Vladimir Putin is desperate. Just in the last half hour, the U.S.

馬克-魯特將這一事態發展描述為對印度洋-太平洋和歐洲-大西洋安全的威脅，同時也是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾-普京孤注一擲的信號。就在剛剛過去的半個小時裡，美國

Pentagon says Ukraine would not see any new restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons against North Korean forces should they enter the fight against Ukrainian forces.

五角大樓表示，如果北韓軍隊加入對烏克蘭軍隊的戰鬥，烏克蘭將不會看到美國對北韓軍隊使用武器的新限制。

Washington estimates that 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to eastern Russia. Let's talk live on the program with George Barros, the Russia and geospatial intelligence team lead at the Institute for the Study of War based in Washington. George, welcome here to the program.

據華盛頓估計，1 萬名北韓阿兵哥已被部署到俄羅斯東部。讓我們在節目中與位於華盛頓的戰爭研究所的俄羅斯和地理空間情報小組負責人喬治-巴羅斯（George Barros）進行現場對話。喬治，歡迎來到節目現場。

Let's take it in stages.

讓我們分階段進行。

First of all, how significant is this move in this war by North Korea? Thank you for having me, Matthew.

首先，北韓的這一舉動在這場戰爭中意義有多大？謝謝你邀請我，馬修。

So in terms of the battlefield tactics, the actual combat power that these 10,000 or so North Koreans are going to provide the Russians, not actually that significant. 10,000 forces is just a very small number.

是以，就戰場戰術而言，這一萬多名朝鮮人將為俄羅斯人提供的實際戰鬥力，實際上並不那麼重要。一萬人只是一個很小的數字。

The Russians suffer about 30,000 troops killed and wounded per month.

俄軍每月約有 3 萬名阿兵哥傷亡。

This is one third of a month's worth of losses, if it's just this.

如果只是這樣的話，這就是一個月損失的三分之一。

The other issue is I'm very skeptical of North Korean forces' combat effectiveness.

另一個問題是，我對北韓軍隊的戰鬥力非常懷疑。

The North Korean military hasn't actually had any real combat experience in real fought wars for over 50 years at this point.

北韓軍隊已經有 50 多年沒有真正打過仗了。

So we're going to be seeing our North Korean units deploying to the front lines to operate with Russian units.

是以，我們將看到北韓部隊部署到前線，與俄羅斯部隊一起作戰。

In fact, that might create some seams where more experienced and on the arm-to-arm with the North Koreans, and that could create some opportunities for the Ukrainians to exploit vulnerabilities where those command seams exist. In terms of force generation, it is much more significant.

事實上，這可能會產生一些縫隙，讓更有經驗的人與朝鮮人手拉手，這可能會給烏克蘭人創造一些機會，利用這些指揮縫隙中存在的漏洞。就部隊組建而言，這一點要重要得多。

It tells us a lot about the Kremlin's limitations on its willingness to mobilize its people.

這讓我們瞭解到克里姆林宮在動員民眾方面的侷限性。

Russia has a lot of people, but Putin remains politically unwilling to mobilize the people that live in Moscow and, say, Petersburg, and rather he'd some alternative pipeline to potentially get North Koreans to fight in their stead. You said that you didn't think it would make that much difference on the battlefield itself.

俄羅斯有很多人，但普京在政治上仍不願動員居住在莫斯科和彼得堡的民眾，而是希望通過其他管道讓朝鮮人代替他們參戰。你說過，你認為這對戰場本身不會有太大影響。

Tell me a little more about the training, the equipment that these troops are likely to have. Sure.

請告訴我更多關於這些部隊可能擁有的訓練和裝備的資訊。當然可以

So the forces that have been sent come from North Korea's 11th Army Corps, which is North Korean Special Forces.

是以，派出的部隊來自北朝鮮第 11 軍團，也就是北朝鮮特種部隊。

Within the table of organization and equipment within there, you have a variety of airborne brigades and light infantry brigades.

在組織和裝備表中，有各種空降旅和輕步兵旅。

These are going to be primarily light foot infantry.

這些主要是輕步兵。

They might be given some mechanized support, but these are not heavy tank units.

他們可能會得到一些機械化支援，但這些都不是重型坦克部隊。

These are not heavy mechanized units or anything like that.

這些不是重型機械化部隊或類似部隊。

We've not observed any indication that the North Koreans have brought a whole lot of equipment with them.

我們沒有觀察到任何跡象表明朝鮮人攜帶了大量裝備。

The combat footage or the training footage that we saw of the North Koreans in Eastern Russia that was published a week ago just showed light infantry.

我們一週前看到的北朝鮮人在俄羅斯東部的戰鬥畫面或訓練畫面顯示的只是輕步兵。

So if anything, it seems like they're getting prepared to have light infantry assaults, not with a whole lot of vehicle support. We heard what Mark Rutter was saying, that in one sense it's worrying, but in another sense, it's a sign of Putin's desperation.

是以，如果有的話，他們似乎正在準備輕步兵突擊，而不是大量的車輛支援。我們聽到馬克-拉特說，從某種意義上講，這令人擔憂，但從另一個意義上講，這是普京絕望的標誌。

What are your thoughts on that and the state of the Russian economy, their capacity to produce the armaments they need, the soldiers, the numbers they need? Absolutely.

您對此有何看法？俄羅斯的經濟狀況如何？他們有能力生產所需的武器裝備和阿兵哥嗎？當然。

So the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union.

是以，俄羅斯聯邦不是蘇聯。

Russia has a finite number of people that it can either choose to put into industry in the civilian sector or into the frontline in Ukraine.

俄羅斯可以選擇將有限的人員投入民用工業或烏克蘭前線。

As of last year, the Russians had a labor deficit of about 5 million workers, which is huge.

截至去年，俄羅斯的勞動力缺口約為 500 萬，這是一個巨大的數字。

And right now, the Russian government has been putting out tremendous financial incentives to Russians to go sign up and work in the Russian military.

現在，俄羅斯政府一直在向俄羅斯人提供巨大的經濟激勵，鼓勵他們報名參加俄羅斯軍隊。

For example, the Russian government now offers up to 2 million rubles for a one-time signing bonus, when the average Russian's annual salary is around 1.2 million rubles.

例如，俄羅斯政府現在提供高達 200 萬盧布的一次性簽約獎金，而俄羅斯人的平均年薪約為 120 萬盧布。

And right now, firms in Russia are struggling to be able to meet this overinflated Russian state incentives to go fight in the military.

而現在，俄羅斯的企業正在努力爭取滿足俄羅斯國家對參軍入伍的過高獎勵。

So look, Putin actually has a problem.

所以你看，普京其實是有問題的。

He's going to have to probably, within the next 16 months or so, make a hard decision about whether or not to call another round of mobilization.

在未來 16 個月左右的時間裡，他可能不得不就是否進行新一輪動員做出艱難的決定。

And to what extent is he prepared to further degrade the efficiency of his domestic economy at the expense of pulling up the war?

他準備在多大程度上進一步降低其國內經濟的效率，從而犧牲戰爭？

And I think in terms of the Russian desperation, look, this batch of 10,000 North Korean soldiers, they're not going to make a big difference if this is the single batch.

我認為，就俄羅斯的絕望而言，聽著，這批一萬名北韓阿兵哥，如果只是這一批的話，他們不會有什麼大作為。

But if this becomes a robust pipeline through which the Russians can get 15,000 or 20,000 troops per month, that would take care of up to a third or two thirds of Russia's losses and be a substantial way to keep the Russians fighting this war for a long time. George, great to talk to you.

但是，如果這成為一個強大的管道，俄羅斯人可以通過它每月獲得 15000 或 20000 名阿兵哥，這將解決俄羅斯三分之一或三分之二的損失，是讓俄羅斯人繼續長期作戰的重要途徑。喬治，很高興和你談話。

Thanks so much for joining us on today's Verified Live.

感謝您參加今天的 "驗證直播"。