Name: 【國際議題】戰爭一觸即發？北韓與南韓的關係為何突然惡化？ (Why relations between North Korea and South Korea are worsening | DW News)
Uploaded: 2024-10-15T12:36:36.000Z
Duration: 12 min 32 s

程度副詞

South Korea's military says it is quote fully ready to respond after North

韓國軍方稱已做好充分準備在朝鮮戰爭結束後作出迴應

Korea ordered troops on the border to prepare to fire. Seoul claims that the

韓國命令邊境部隊準備開火。首爾聲稱

情態副詞

North is preparing to blow up roads that cross the heavily militarized border with the South. Tensions are escalating after North Korea accused its rival of flying drones over its airspace to drop propaganda leaflets. South Korean officials have neither confirmed nor denied being behind that incident.

北韓正準備炸燬穿越軍事化程度很高的南朝鮮邊境的道路。在北韓指控其對手在其領空上空飛行無人機投放宣傳單後，緊張局勢不斷升級。韓國官員既沒有證實也沒有否認是這起事件的幕後黑手。

Scenes like this of families from North and South Korea crossing the border to be reunited after years apart, a gesture of diplomatic goodwill, will now be a thing of the past.

北韓和韓國的家庭在分離多年後跨越邊境團聚，這種外交友好姿態將成為過去。

These recent images show North Korean soldiers on the border, peeling away railway lines and building barriers. Permanently closing the border to the South.

這些最新圖片顯示，北朝鮮阿兵哥正在邊境上剝離鐵路線，修建隔離牆。永久關閉通往南方的邊界。

A statement appeared on the North Korean army's website on October 9th, announcing an immediate plan to cut off transit lines connecting to neighboring South Korea.

10 月 9 日，北韓軍隊網站發表聲明，宣佈立即計劃切斷連接鄰國韓國的過境線路。

Two days prior, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un told a crowd at his namesake university that he is prepared to use all military capabilities in a potential conflict with South Korea and the United States. And he is not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons.

兩天前，北韓領導人金正恩在以他名字命名的大學裡對民眾說，他已準備好在與韓國和美國的潛在衝突中動用一切軍事能力。他不排除使用核武器的可能性。

Such language is not unusual, but it comes at a time when tensions with South Korea are close to boiling point, making such a threat all the more credible.

這樣的措辭並不罕見，但它出現在與韓國的緊張關係接近沸點之際，使得這種威脅更加可信。

After several years of relative stability between the Koreas, Seoul has recently upset

經過幾年朝韓之間的相對穩定後，首爾最近打破了這一局面。

Pyongyang by deepening its military ties with the US, North Korea's sworn enemy.

平壤通過加深與美國--北韓的死敵--的軍事關係。

This includes a beefing up of joint nuclear and military planning, very publicly demonstrated by this year's annual joint military exercises with the US army on South Korean soil.

這包括加強聯合核計劃和軍事計劃，今年在韓國領土上與美軍舉行的年度聯合軍事演習就公開表明了這一點。

It's important because we're here in the Korean peninsula. It's important that we know how to work with our ROK counterparts. If something ever serious happened, that we can work well together.

這很重要，因為我們就在朝鮮半島。我們必須知道如何與韓國同行合作。如果發生了嚴重的事情，我們可以很好地合作。

Further perceived goading by South Korea is its inclusion of a US supersonic bomber plane in a recent military parade, during which President Yoon Seok-yool sent a strong message across the border.

在最近的一次閱兵式上，美國一架超音速轟炸機也參加了閱兵，韓國總統尹錫堯在閱兵式上發出了強烈的越界資訊。

If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face a resolute, overwhelming response from our military and the US alliance. That day will see the end of the North Korean regime.

如果北韓試圖使用核武器，它將面臨我們的軍隊和美國聯盟堅決、壓倒性的迴應。到那一天，北韓政權必將滅亡。

Relations have soured between North and South Korea since Yoon took office in 2022, ending years of outreach from the previous government that saw families able to cross the border.

自 2022 年尹炳世上任以來，南北韓關係惡化，結束了上屆政府多年來的外聯活動，北韓家庭可以跨越邊境。

Kim Jong-un let his feelings be known in May and June this year, by sending hundreds of giant balloons filled with trash and faeces through the sky into South Korea.

今年 5 月和 6 月，金正恩向韓國發射了數百個裝滿垃圾和糞便的巨大氣球，讓韓國人知道了他的感受。

But puerile provocations have now escalated into a far more dangerous threat of nuclear warfare.

但是，愚蠢的挑釁現在已經升級為危險得多的核戰爭威脅。

Kim Jong-un has been flexing his increasing nuclear capabilities in recent months. Some analysts say this is an attempt ahead of the US election to finally force Washington to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power. But these barbed threats risk pushing tensions on the Korean peninsula to the brink.

近幾個月來，金正恩一直在展示其不斷增強的核能力。一些分析人士認為，這是金正恩在美國大選前試圖最終迫使華盛頓承認北韓為核大國。但這些帶刺的威脅有可能將朝鮮半島的緊張局勢推向邊緣。

Dr Catherine Jones is an East Asia specialist at the University of St Andrews in Scotland and joins us now. Welcome to DW. Great to have you on the program. Could I start by asking you to give us some background? Just remind us what is behind this current increase in tensions between North and South Korea?

凱瑟琳-瓊斯（Catherine Jones）博士是蘇格蘭聖安德魯斯大學（University of St Andrews）的東亞問題專家。歡迎來到 DW。很高興您能參加我們的節目。我可以先請您給我們介紹一下背景嗎？請您告訴我們當前南北韓緊張局勢加劇的背後原因是什麼？

Thank you very much for having me, Anja. So I think there's a number of factors that bring together this particular series of events. And it's really important to remember that

非常感謝你邀請我，安雅。我認為，這一系列事件的發生有很多因素。重要的是要記住

October is an important month in North Korea. It's the 10th of October is commonly celebrated as the foundation of the central organizing committee in North Korea. And therefore, it's common to have some discussion of an October surprise coming from the North. But alongside that, as your reports just outlined, there are a number of different factors that lead into intensifying some of the hostilities this year in particular. And I think it's important to factor in the general trends in the geopolitics around this situation.

十月在北韓是一個重要的月份。10月10日通常被慶祝為北韓中央組織委員會的成立日。是以，人們經常討論北韓會在十月給我們帶來驚喜。但與此同時，正如你們的報告所概述的那樣，有許多不同的因素導致今年的一些敵對行動愈演愈烈。我認為重要的是要考慮到圍繞這一局勢的地緣政治的總體趨勢。

So the relationship not just between South Korea and the United States, but also the relationship between North Korea and Russia. Previously this year, we've also had the non continuation of the panel of experts on sanctions against North Korea, 17, 18. So we've got a number of factors that bleed in and cause a sort of confluence of events around hostilities at this particular time of year. And I would add on top of that, October is a time where we've got perhaps more understanding of the human situation in North Korea, because we can see some of the data from the United States, particularly around crops and harvests, and what it's looking like in terms of food security for the year going forward.

是以，不僅是韓國和美國之間的關係，還有北韓和俄羅斯之間的關係。在此之前的今年，制裁北韓的專家小組也沒有繼續工作，17、18 年都是如此。是以，在每年的這個特殊時刻，我們都會有許多因素滲入其中，導致敵對行動事件的匯合。此外，我還想補充一點，10 月份也許是我們對朝鮮人的狀況有更多瞭解的時候，因為我們可以看到來自美國的一些數據，尤其是關於農作物和收成的數據，以及未來一年的糧食安全狀況。

I'm just going to jump in there because there are obviously many factors playing into this.

我只是想插一句，因為這顯然有很多因素在起作用。

But we have seen several years of relative stability, haven't we? So give us a sense of how stark, how serious this escalation is.

但我們已經看到了幾年的相對穩定，不是嗎？所以，請給我們一個感覺，這種升級有多麼明顯，多麼嚴重。

So North Korea is a serious security concern, and it's multifaceted in those problems that it presents. But I would caution against overemphasizing the uniqueness of this particular set of threats and provocations. There could be things that are different this year. But what we've also seen is a continuation of continuing investment from North Korea in different types of weapon systems, particularly around capabilities of short-range missiles. We've seen continued testing of ballistic missile launchers. So we do have additional concerns right now, partly because of the geopolitics, partly because of the increased rhetoric from North and South

是以，北韓是一個嚴重的安全問題，它所帶來的問題是多方面的。但我要提醒的是，不要過分強調這一系列威脅和挑釁的獨特性。今年可能會有一些不同之處。但我們也看到，北韓繼續對不同類型的武器系統進行持續投資，特別是圍繞短程飛彈的能力。我們看到北韓繼續測試彈道導彈發射器。是以，我們現在確實有更多的擔憂，部分原因是地緣政治，部分原因是南北北韓的言辭更加激烈。

Korea at this particular time. And North Korea is a serious security concern. But I would caution against overemphasizing some of those things, because one thing that's important is to make sure that there are opportunities for responding. And certainly the diplomatic toolkit that's available right now may be very different from the diplomatic toolkit that we could have engaged two, three, four years ago.

在這個特殊時期，北韓是一個嚴重的安全問題。北韓是一個嚴重的安全問題。但我要提醒的是，不要過分強調其中一些事情，因為重要的一點是要確保有機會做出迴應。當然，現在的外交工具包可能與兩、三、四年前的外交工具包大相徑庭。

Dr. Catherine Jones from the University of St. Andrews. I'm afraid we've run out of time, but thank you so much for your analysis.

來自聖安德魯斯大學的凱瑟琳-瓊斯博士。恐怕時間不夠了，但還是非常感謝你的分析。

Let's get more on this now with Hazel Smith. She's a professor of Korean studies at the

現在讓我們與海澤爾-史密斯（Hazel Smith）一起了解更多相關資訊。她是韓國首爾大學的韓國研究教授。

University of London. Thanks for being with us. Professor, what's behind this latest flare-up of tensions between North and South Korea? Why is it happening now?

倫敦大學。感謝您接受我們的採訪。教授，北韓和韓國之間最新爆發的緊張局勢背後有什麼原因？為什麼現在會發生？

Well, in fact, we've seen these tensions remain high between South and North Korea for the last two or three years. There's been continuous military exercises in the South between South

事實上，在過去的兩三年裡，我們已經看到南北北韓之間的緊張局勢仍在持續。南朝鮮和北朝鮮之間的軍事演習持續不斷。

Korea, Japan, and the United States. There's been a recalibrated relationship with South Korea and

韓國、日本和美國。與韓國和美國的關係得到了重新調整。

Japan, who have not had historically very good relationships at all. And on the northern side, with North Korea, you've seen after COVID, because the country was basically closed down, its only COVID remediation was to close the borders, and that happened for about two years.

日本與北韓的關係歷來不太好。而在北朝鮮方面，你可以看到，在 COVID 之後，由於北韓基本上被關閉，COVID 唯一的補救措施就是關閉邊境，這種情況持續了大約兩年。

Once it reopened, it's tried to reinvigorate trade with China. And although China is its main trading partner, trade is still very low. And it's turned towards Russia, where it looks like it's been swapping its stores of artillery shells, particularly some missiles, but mainly artillery shells, which has been developing since the end of the Korean War in 1953, and selling them to Russia in exchange for fuel and food. And that, of course, given Russia-Ukraine relations are at war in the West, more or less supports Ukraine, has exacerbated tensions all the way around. So this recent outburst of drones being sent in the South Korean military apparently sent drones over Pyongyang yesterday. North Korea, as your intro said, has been sending disgusting, rubbish-filled balloons into South Korea. These are not just irritations, but they're signs of the underlying tensions which haven't gone away for the last few years. North Korea's leader said he doesn't rule out using nuclear weapons in a conflict with South Korea and the U.S. What do you make of that statement?

重新開放後，它試圖重振與中國的貿易。雖然中國是它的主要貿易伙伴，但貿易額仍然很低。它轉向了俄羅斯，似乎一直在那裡交換它儲存的炮彈，特別是一些飛彈，但主要是炮彈，這是自1953年朝鮮戰爭結束以來一直在發展的，並將其出售給俄羅斯，以換取燃料和食品。當然，鑑於俄烏關係處於戰爭狀態，西方國家或多或少都支持烏克蘭，這加劇了周圍的緊張局勢。是以，最近韓國軍方顯然在昨天向平壤上空派出了無人機。正如你們的介紹所說，北韓一直在向韓國發送令人作嘔的、裝滿垃圾的氣球。這些不僅僅是刺激，更是過去幾年來一直沒有消除的潛在緊張局勢的

Well, all states have nuclear weapons, although they're mainly a deterrent facility. The reason they're a deterrent facility is that states have the underlying ability to use them.

所有國家都擁有核武器，儘管它們主要是一種威懾設施。它們之所以是一種威懾設施，是因為各國都有使用它們的基本能力。

It's what Kim Jong-un is saying, what the leadership is saying, it's not just Kim Jong-un, but the people around him, is basically that they consider that they're in a state of preparation for war. The question is whether they would use them in war is another issue altogether.

金正恩所說的，領導層所說的，不只是金正恩，還有他周圍的人，基本上都認為他們處於備戰狀態。問題是他們是否會在戰爭中使用這些武器，這完全是另一個問題。

In the past, what they've been preparing for is an artillery-based war, much as we see in Ukraine and Russia, and that's why they've been, even though they're a very poor country, been concentrating on an armaments production over the last 50, 60 years. All the calculations that one takes into account when the threat of nuclear weapons may be potentially used apply in North

過去，他們一直在準備一場以火炮為基礎的戰爭，就像我們在烏克蘭和俄羅斯看到的那樣，這就是為什麼他們一直在集中精力進行軍備生產，儘管他們是一個非常貧窮的國家，但在過去的 50、60 年裡一直如此。當核武器威脅可能被使用時，人們所考慮的所有因素都適用於北韓。

Korea. If they were to use nuclear weapons, especially because South Korea is literally divided from North Korea by a line on the ground, then this would have just as bad an impact, even from their own weapons, on North Koreans as on South Korea. So nobody can predict, but it's not an imminent, we hope anyway, even in North Korea's planning, that this would be seen as something that nuclear weapons would be a usable threat from them.

韓國。如果他們使用核武器，尤其是因為南朝鮮與北朝鮮在地面上被一條線分割開來，那麼即使是他們自己的武器，也會對北朝鮮和南朝鮮造成同樣嚴重的影響。是以，誰也無法預料，但我們希望，即使在北韓的計劃中，這也不是一個迫在眉睫的問題，核武器將被視為他們的一個可用威脅。

Just in terms of risk assessment, how dangerous is all of this for the region?

就風險評估而言，這一切對該地區有多大危險？

There hasn't been a resolution to the Korean War, which ended in 1953. It ended with an armistice. This is often used as a cliche, but it's true. It ended with an armistice. There was never a peace agreement made between North and South Korea. There have been tensions between the two countries well before the development of the nuclear program in the 1990s, and those tensions have also had international ramifications. The United Nations, since 2006, has had sanctions, which have expanded since 2016, 2017, to cover the civilian economy on North Korea, and North Korea sees this as part and parcel of what it considers an existential threat, not necessarily to the existence of the government.

朝鮮戰爭於 1953 年結束，至今仍未解決。戰爭以停戰告終。這句話經常被用作陳詞濫調，但卻是事實。戰爭以停戰告終。南北北韓之間從未達成和平協議。早在 20 世紀 90 年代開發核計劃之前，兩國之間就一直存在緊張關係，而這些緊張關係也產生了國際影響。聯合國自 2006 年起開始對北韓實施制裁，自 2016 年、2017 年起，制裁範圍擴大到民用經濟，北韓認為這是其生存威脅的一部分，而不一定是對政府存在的威脅。

Thank you very much, Professor. That was Professor Hazel Smith from the University of London.

非常感謝，教授。剛才是倫敦大學的海澤爾-史密斯教授。