If you navigated here today, or you looked at a weather report, then you use simulations.

如果你今天在這裡導航，或者看了天氣預報，那麼你就使用了模擬。

A simulation can game through thousands or even millions of possibilities.

模擬遊戲可以有數千種甚至數百萬種可能性。

What if computer simulations could help us out of one of the most pressing problems of our time, a rickety democracy, here in the United States or around the world?

如果計算機模擬能夠幫助我們解決我們這個時代最緊迫的問題之一，即美國或全世界搖搖欲墜的民主呢？

I'm here to argue today that simulations can help us out of a lot of problems.

我今天在這裡要說的是，模擬可以幫助我們解決很多問題。

I argue today that simulations can help us preserve democracy in a time of crisis, in a time of rapid change, both technological and demographic, and indeed climate change, and tension, again, in the US and around the world.

我今天的論點是，模擬可以幫助我們在危機時刻、在技術和人口快速變化的時刻、在氣候變化的時刻、在美國和全世界再次出現緊張局勢的時刻維護民主。

I'm a computational neuroscientist, and I'm used to handling complex data.

我是一名計算神經科學家，習慣於處理複雜的數據。

My students and I study the brain, a highly complex object.

我和我的學生們研究的是大腦這個極其複雜的物體。

We take data and we make it simpler in order to understand it.

我們獲取數據，並將其簡單化，以便於理解。

We also build models to help understand how a brain might react.

我們還建立模型，以幫助理解大腦可能做出的反應。

And this kind of understanding, I argue, is useful in understanding democracy itself.

我認為，這種理解有助於理解民主本身。

Imagine neurons, which I do, a fair bit.

想象一下神經元，我經常這樣做。

When neurons fire together in synchrony, and they fire impulses together, that can lead to a seizure.

當神經元同步發射脈衝時，就會導致癲癇發作。

Now imagine people doing something together.

現在想象一下人們一起做某事的情景。

When people start believing something in unison or acting in unison, that can lead to political collapse and it can lead to unrest and it can even lead to insurrection.

當人們開始一致相信或一致行動時，就會導致政治崩潰，導致動亂，甚至導致叛亂。

Computation and mathematical analysis can help explain strange phenomena like this, which are unfamiliar to most of us in our lifetimes.

計算和數學分析可以幫助解釋我們大多數人一生中都不熟悉的奇怪現象。

They can not only help explain, but they can also help prevent such events from happening, and maybe even help make repairs to democracy.

他們不僅可以幫助解釋，還可以幫助預防此類事件的發生，甚至還可以幫助修復民主。

And finally, and this is important, avoid accidentally causing a problem or making things worse.

最後，很重要的一點是，要避免意外造成問題或使事情變得更糟。

I would argue, too, that democracy ought to have several fundamental functions.

我還認為，民主應該具有幾項基本功能。

It should be representative of all of us.

它應該代表我們所有人。

It should be responsive to us.

它應該對我們做出迴應。

If we change our minds, we should be able to get rid of the people who we think have not been doing a good job.

如果我們改變了主意，我們應該能夠把我們認為工作不力的人趕走。

And finally, democracy should be deliberative.

最後，民主應該是審議性的。

We should elect people who represent us, who deliberate with one another and help solve our problems.

我們應該選出能夠代表我們的人，他們應該相互商議，幫助解決我們的問題。

But there's a paradox in our democracy as it stands today, and let me explain to you exactly how that paradox might cause a problem.

但是，我們今天的民主制度存在著一個悖論，讓我來向你們解釋一下這個悖論究竟是如何造成問題的。

If you look at recent surveys, many of us are dissatisfied with politics.

如果你看一下最近的調查，我們很多人都對政治不滿意。

There are more independents than either Democrats or Republicans.

無黨派人士的人數比民主黨人或共和黨人都多。

That started two decades ago.

這始於二十年前。

Over the last few years, there are now nearly half of voters in the United States who call themselves independents.

在過去幾年中，美國有將近一半的選民自稱為無黨派人士。

That's more than Democrats and Republicans combined.

這比民主黨和共和黨的總和還要多。

But yet, we're also polarized.

但是，我們也兩極分化了。

Those independents also have highly reliable voting habits, voting with either major political party most of the time.

這些無黨派人士的投票習慣也非常可靠，大多數時候都會投給任何一個主要政黨。

So how can that be?

怎麼可能呢？

Let me show you a simple simulation that illustrates how both of those things can be true, independents who are disaffected and yet partisan polarization.

讓我給你們看一個簡單的模擬，說明這兩件事是如何同時發生的：獨立人士心懷不滿，但黨派兩極分化。

And this helps illustrate how there could be a danger to our system under current conditions.

這有助於說明，在當前條件下，我們的系統可能會面臨危險。

In the simulation, look at this axis from left to right.

在模擬過程中，從左到右觀察這個軸。

This is an axis that's meant to represent liberals and conservatives from left to right, and you can see here voters, or if you can imagine, politicians, piled up in two great mountains.

這是一條軸線，從左到右代表自由派和保守派，你可以看到這裡的選民，或者如果你能想象的話，政客們，堆成了兩座大山。

And these two great mountains are separated from each other.

這兩座大山彼此相隔。

Very little overlap in issues or in cultural stances.

在議題或文化立場上幾乎沒有重疊。

There's something different about these two mountains.

這兩座山有些不同。

But now take a closer look.

但現在請仔細看看。

This is one dimension that I've shown you, a single dimension from left to right.

這是我向你們展示的一個維度，從左到右的一個單一維度。

But look, here's a third mountain hidden, and that's because there's more dimensionality to voters than just the single axis that we've gotten used to in the last few years.

但是你看，這裡還隱藏著第三座山，那是因為選民的維度更多，而不僅僅是我們在過去幾年中習慣的單一軸線。

This third mountain of voters, in fact, has different stances, but yet they're forced to choose.

這第三座山的選民，其實立場各異，但卻不得不做出選擇。

They have to pick whichever major mountain is next to them and whichever mountain is closer they pick, and that's why we're loyal.

哪座大山在他們旁邊，他們就得選哪座，哪座山離他們更近，他們就選哪座，這就是我們忠誠的原因。

And when we're forced to choose between these two major mountains, we're all forced to act as if we're on that single dimension.

而當我們被迫在這兩座大山之間做出選擇時，我們都不得不把自己當成是在那個單一維度上的人。

Mathematical analysis has shown that one-dimensional dynamics, as you go along a single dimension, can lead to instability.

數學分析表明，一維動力學，當你沿著單一維度前進時，會導致不穩定性。

And that's important.

這一點很重要。

To get into the math a little bit, imagine animals.

為了讓數學更深入一點，請想象一下動物。

If animals all start moving in one direction, then that puts them at risk of getting into a stampede.

如果動物們都開始朝一個方向移動，那就有可能發生踩踏事件。

Now imagine people.

現在想象一下人們。

If we all start doing the same thing, if we all start behaving in unison, if enough of us do that, that can cause a political stampede.

如果我們都開始做同樣的事情，如果我們都開始採取一致的行為，如果我們有足夠多的人這樣做，那就會引起一場政治踩踏。

And a political stampede can lead to the election of extreme leaders and can lead to a collapse of democracy and maybe the loss of democracy in future elections.

而政治踩踏會導致極端領導人當選，會導致民主崩潰，也許會在未來的選舉中失去民主。

Can we prevent this?

我們能防止這種情況發生嗎？

Well, I should say that reformers have come up with lots of ideas, and if you've been paying attention to this space, you've heard about some of these ideas.

應該說，改革者提出了很多想法，如果你一直關注這個領域，就會聽說過其中的一些想法。

But the problem is that we do not have the luxury of time.

但問題是，我們沒有那麼多時間。

It's an unstable time, and I would say that it would be a good idea for us to make some of these repairs in the next few years.

這是一個不穩定的時期，我想說的是，我們最好在未來幾年內進行一些這樣的維修。

And we have to get it right maybe the first time.

我們必須在第一次就做對。

Simulation can help.

模擬可以提供幫助。

Like navigation on a smartphone, computation can help us identify paths that can move us forward reliably and without making too many missteps.

就像智能手機上的導航功能一樣，計算可以幫助我們確定路徑，使我們能夠可靠地向前邁進，而不會出現過多的失誤。

Now, I've told you about independence.

現在，我已經向你們介紹了獨立。

Now I want to tell you about some of the solutions.

現在，我想告訴大家一些解決方案。

Now, you might imagine that a good idea in such polarized circumstances is to form a third party.

現在，你可能會想，在這種兩極分化的情況下，組建第三黨不失為一個好主意。

Sounds good, right?

聽起來不錯吧？

But in fact, if we do that before attempting other reforms, that can backfire.

但事實上，如果我們在嘗試其他改革之前就這樣做，可能會適得其反。

And I'd like to show you a simulation that proves the point.

我想給你們看一個模擬，來證明這一點。

Here's a simulation based on analysis that my collaborators and I have undertaken.

下面是我和我的合作者根據分析結果進行的模擬。

This is now based on results from analyzing hundreds of elections.

目前，這是在對數百次選舉進行分析後得出的結果。

And we found that voters indeed do act as if they're piled up into two great mountains.

我們發現，選民們的行為的確就像堆積成了兩座大山。

In this case, I've shown the blues on the left and the reds on the right.

在這種情況下，我左邊顯示的是藍色，右邊顯示的是紅色。

And in this simulation, they vote under the normal rule that we've become used to, which is called first past the post.

在這種模擬中，他們按照我們已經習慣的正常規則進行投票，即所謂的 "得票最多者當選"。

And in this simulation, I've set up conditions so that out of 10,000 simulations, the blues win half the time, 5,000 times, and the reds win half the time, 5,000 times.

在這次模擬中，我設定了一些條件，這樣在一萬次模擬中，藍方贏了一半，即 5000 次，紅方贏了一半，即 5000 次。

And in the simulation, the fraction of the vote that they need in order to win is about 50 percent.

而在模擬投票中，他們獲勝所需的選票比例約為 50%。

These are the conditions that we're used to in a two-party system.

這就是我們所習慣的兩黨制的條件。

Imagine if we suddenly run a third-party candidate, and we put that third-party candidate in the middle.

試想一下，如果我們突然推出一位第三方候選人，並把這位第三方候選人放在中間位置。

The third-party candidate is here in the middle.

第三黨候選人在中間。

And I've set up the simulation to be a little bit closer to one of those peaks than the other.

我設置的模擬結果比另一個峰值更接近其中一個峰值。

Because that third-party is more sympathetic to those views.

因為第三方更同情這些觀點。

However, there's something a little bit funny here, which is that now that blue party still needs 50 percent of the vote to win.

不過，有一點很有趣，那就是現在藍黨仍然需要 50% 的選票才能獲勝。

But now, because the third-party has divided the vote, now the reds only need 46 percent of the vote to win.

但現在，由於第三黨已經分化了選票，紅黨現在只需要 46% 的選票就能獲勝。

And now we have a situation in which out of 10,000 simulations, the blues win now only 2,000 times, the reds win 8,000 times, and this third-party doesn't win at all.

現在的情況是，在 10,000 次模擬中，藍軍只贏了 2,000 次，紅軍贏了 8,000 次，而這個第三方根本沒有贏。

And so this is counterproductive, right?

是以，這隻會適得其反，對嗎？

This is what we call a spoiler effect, where paradoxically, the third-party has spoiled the chances of the party that is closer to them, which is presumably the opposite of what they were trying to accomplish.

這就是我們所說的 "攪局者效應"，矛盾的是，第三方破壞了與他們更接近的一方的機會，這大概與他們想要達到的目的相反。

Now, there are other solutions that, it turns out, are more likely to work.

現在，還有其他解決方案，事實證明，它們更有可能奏效。

And one of them is redistricting.

其中之一就是重新劃分選區。

In the United States, we're mostly represented in single-member districts, and so we have a particular legislator who represents us.

在美國，我們的代表大多來自單一議員選區，是以有一位特定的議員代表我們。

In recent years, there's been a move to stem this.

近年來，人們開始阻止這種情況的發生。

You may have heard the word gerrymandering.

您可能聽說過 "選區劃分 "這個詞。

Gerrymandering is the artful drawing of lines to disadvantage one candidate or a group, could be a racial group or a whole political party, and to eliminate competition.

所謂 "選區劃分"，就是巧妙地劃定選區，使某個候選人或某個群體（可以是種族群體，也可以是整個政黨）處於不利地位，從而消除競爭。

Computation can help identify such a plan.

計算可以幫助確定這樣的計劃。

By doing statistical analysis of the universe of possible plans, it's possible to show that a particular plan is an outlier.

通過對各種可能的計劃進行統計分析，可以證明某個計劃是異常值。

And when there's an outlier, then a court can intervene.

當出現異常情況時，法院可以進行干預。

When the court intervenes, it can dictate the drawing of a new plan.

當法院介入時，它可以要求制定新的計劃。

Computation can also help voters.

計算也可以幫助選民。

Voters who vote to change the system, to change the rules to establish an independent commission, can also take the power away from legislators, and they, again, will need computation.

投票改變制度、改變規則以建立獨立委員會的選民也可以從立法者手中奪走權力，而他們同樣需要計算。

However, this solution, as attractive as it is, is not enough.

然而，這種解決方案雖然很有吸引力，但還遠遠不夠。

And that's because those two mountains which I showed you are everywhere.

這是因為我向你們展示的那兩座山無處不在。

And no matter how much we redraw the lines, there's polarization across the nation.

無論我們如何重新劃線，全國各地都存在兩極分化。

And so the question is, OK, what else do we need to do?

問題是，我們還需要做些什麼？

There's something else that's necessary.

還有其他必要的東西。

The next step is to change the rules of the game itself.

下一步是改變遊戲規則本身。

Alaska voters in the last few years have done exactly that.

阿拉斯加選民在過去幾年中正是這樣做的。

They voted to do away with partisan primaries.

他們投票決定取消黨派初選。

What they've done is removed the primaries, replaced them with an all-party primary.

他們所做的就是取消初選，取而代之的是全黨初選。

Everybody runs in one single primary.

每個人都參加一次初選。

The top four advance to the general election.

前四名晉級大選。

Because there are four candidates, they then have to be elected under a ranked-choice rule.

由於有四名候選人，是以必須按照排序選擇規則進行選舉。

Ranked-choice is one where you list your first choice, second choice, third choice, fourth choice.

排名選擇是指你列出你的第一選擇、第二選擇、第三選擇和第四選擇。

If your first choice doesn't cut the mustard, then they drop out and your vote is reassigned.

如果你的第一選擇不符合要求，那麼他們就會退出，你的選票就會重新分配。

The consequence of this is that Democrats and Republicans still have a chance to advance, and they do, to the general election, but it changes the incentives.

這樣做的後果是，民主黨和共和黨仍有機會晉級大選，他們也確實做到了，但這改變了激勵機制。

They have to play not to their party faithful, but instead, they play to all voters.

他們必須不為自己的黨派忠實選民服務，而是為所有選民服務。

It changes tactics.

它改變了戰術。

They try to win over each other's supporters.

他們努力爭取對方的支持者。

And it changes attitudes.

它還能改變人們的態度。

And just to give you an example, this is a selfie that's taken by three congressional candidates, one Democrat and two Republicans.

舉個例子，這是三位國會候選人的自拍照，其中一位是民主黨人，兩位是共和黨人。

And here they are, chumming it up, taking a selfie together.

在這裡，他們一起哈拉，一起自拍。

And I can tell you that at least one of these candidates is not in the habit of chumming around with a member of the other party.

我可以告訴你，這些候選人中至少有一人沒有與其他黨派成員交好的習慣。

So this is one way that, in fact, a new change of rules can help.

是以，事實上，這也是新規則變化可以起到幫助作用的一種方式。

And in fact, we've done simulations that show that this rule, which is called top-four primary, works with redistricting reform, the other one I showed you.

事實上，我們已經做了模擬實驗，結果表明這一規則，即所謂的前四名初選，與選區重劃改革（我向你們展示的另一項改革）一起發揮作用。

Put together, they can, in fact, double the number of competitive districts.

這些措施加在一起，實際上可以將有競爭力的選區數量增加一倍。

So there's even a case in which there's synergy that's possible.

是以，甚至有可能產生協同效應。

Now, I've given you a few ideas, but there are actually many ideas for reform, and you may know them, eliminating the electoral college, approval voting, campaign finance reform.

現在，我已經給了你們一些想法，但實際上有很多改革的想法，你們可能都知道，如取消選舉人團、準許投票、競選資金改革等。

The question is how to choose and how to figure out which ones to do first and with the most urgency.

問題是如何選擇，以及如何確定首先要做哪些最緊迫的事情。

And simulations can, again, help.

同樣，模擬也能提供幫助。

Simulations can game out outcomes, representation, responsiveness, deliberation.

模擬可以博弈出結果、代表性、響應性和審議。

And simulations can do something that enacting a reform cannot do easily, which is game out long-term outcomes.

而模擬可以做到頒佈一項改革所不能輕易做到的事情，那就是對長期結果進行博弈。

What's going to happen 10 years from now?

十年後會發生什麼？

And that's important.

這一點很重要。

Furthermore, every state is different, cities are different.

此外，每個州和城市的情況都不一樣。

The same solution is not going to work in every place.

同樣的解決方案不可能在每個地方都奏效。

And so it's important to be flexible and to look for the solution that works best.

是以，重要的是要靈活變通，尋找最有效的解決方案。

Somewhat shockingly, some states have even outlawed ranked-choice voting, and so one would have to come up with another solution for those places.

有些令人震驚的是，有些州甚至取締了排序選擇投票，是以人們必須為這些地方另想辦法。

Now, let me be realistic.

現在，讓我現實一點。

Math is not enough.

光有數學是不夠的。

But math can be assistive, and it can help speed the process for people who want to change the system.

但數學可以起到輔助作用，它可以幫助那些想要改變制度的人加快進程。

In other words, math and computation can act as a GPS to rescue our lost democracy.

換句話說，數學和計算可以充當 GPS，拯救我們迷失的民主。

Now, the way you can help is by advocating for reforms through voter initiatives in states that have that.

現在，您可以提供幫助的方式是，在有條件的州通過選民倡議來倡導改革。

You can advocate for local reform in your city or town.

您可以在您所在的城市或城鎮倡導地方改革。

And if you're a scientist, I really want your help.

如果你是科學家，我真的希望得到你的幫助。

If you're a scientist, I want you to come and get to work understanding these things in your city, in your town, in your state and in your nation.

如果你是科學家，我希望你能來了解你所在城市、城鎮、州和國家的這些事情。

As it turns out, some of these reforms, such as ranked-choice voting, have been run in hundreds of elections across America.

事實證明，其中一些改革，如排名選擇投票，已經在全美數百次選舉中實施。

And that means that there are experiments being done right now in real time.

這意味著，現在正在進行實時實驗。

I want to end with a quote from a former president, Theodore Roosevelt, who is not a scientist, but in fact was very interested in this.

最後，我想引用前總統西奧多-羅斯福的一段話作為結束語，他不是科學家，但實際上對此非常感興趣。

He called democracy an experiment.

他將民主稱為一場實驗。

He said, democracy is this national experiment in which it's essential for the rules to end up representing all of us.

他說，民主是一項國家實驗，其中的規則最終必須代表我們所有人。

It's my hope that math can help get us there and build a better future for all of us.

我希望數學能幫助我們實現這一目標，併為我們所有人創造一個更美好的未來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。