And immediately, something seemed off.

立刻，我就覺得有些不對勁。

It didn't look Russian.

看起來不像俄羅斯人。

It was one of hundreds Russia fired over a five-day span and its largest air attack since invading.

這是俄羅斯在五天內發射的數百枚炮彈中的一枚，也是俄羅斯入侵以來最大規模的空襲。

But when experts in the U.S. government took a closer look, they found it eerily matched photos of missiles made in North Korea.

但是，當美國政府的專家們仔細觀察時，發現它與北韓製造的飛彈照片非常相似。

Russia had also fired dozens of these drones, which are made in Iran.

俄羅斯也發射了數十架這種伊朗製造的無人機。

And cruise missiles like these, with wiring and turbojet engines, from China.

還有像這樣的巡航導彈，裝有線路和渦輪噴氣發動機，來自中國。

The appearance of these weapons in Ukraine isn't an accident.

這些武器出現在烏克蘭並非偶然。

They're a key way these four countries are working together.

它們是這四個國家合作的重要方式。

And they're growing close enough that some in the U.S. are beginning to call them an

它們的關係越來越密切，以至於美國的一些人開始稱它們為

Axis.

軸。

That's Axis like the Axis Powers, who fought the U.S. and its allies in the Second World

軸心國是指在第二次世界大戰中與美國及其盟國作戰的軸心國。

War.

戰爭

And the Axis of Evil that U.S. President George W. Bush, well, made up.

還有美國總統小布什捏造的邪惡軸心。

States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an Axis of Evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.

這些國家及其恐怖主義盟友構成了邪惡軸心，武裝起來威脅世界和平。

But I've been seeing this new Axis described in a lot of different ways.

但是，我看到對這個新軸心國有很多不同的描述。

There's the new Axis of Evil, the Axis of rogues, of evasion, even of outcasts.

還有新的邪惡軸心、流氓軸心、逃避軸心，甚至是棄兒軸心。

I think the name that best describes these groups of countries is the Axis of Upheaval.

我認為，"動盪軸心 "是對這些國家集團最好的描述。

It's the big geopolitical shift that we've seen over the last several years.

這是我們在過去幾年中看到的地緣政治大轉變。

So why is an autocratic mafia state, an Islamic theocracy, a communist superpower, and a reclusive socialist state teaming up?

那麼，為什麼一個專制的黑手黨國家、一個伊斯蘭神權國家、一個共產主義超級大國和一個隱居的社會主義國家會聯手呢？

And how much danger do they pose to the rest of the world?

他們對世界其他地區構成了多大的威脅？

The governments of CH sitten Iran, Russia, North Korea are very different states, but they do have a couple things in common.

伊朗、俄羅斯和北韓的政府是截然不同的國家，但它們有幾個共同點。

They do have a bit of a rivalry for America and a little bit of a drawback is, in terms of censorship.

在審查方面，他們確實與美國有一些競爭關係，也有一些缺點。

So they'm getting ready to take the reins.

所以，他們準備好接過韁繩了。

The governments of China, Iran, Russia, North Korea are very different states, but they do have a couple things in common.

中國、伊朗、俄羅斯和朝鮮政府是截然不同的國家，但它們確實有幾個共同點。

First, they're all trying to build their own spheres of influence.

首先，他們都在努力建立自己的勢力範圍。

When Russia was part of the Soviet Union, it controlled much of Eastern Europe and

當俄羅斯還是蘇聯的一部分時，它控制著東歐和歐洲的大部分地區。

Central Asia, largely thanks to its vast wealth, energy, technology, large military, nuclear weapons and seat on the powerful U.N.

中亞，主要得益於其巨大的財富、能源、技術、龐大的軍隊、核武器以及在強大的聯合國中的席位。

Security Council. But after the Soviet Union fell, many of these countries left that sphere by joining the NATO alliance and European Union.

安全理事會。但蘇聯解體後，這些國家中的許多都加入了北約聯盟和歐洲聯盟，從而離開了這一領域。

Ever since Vladimir Putin took power, he's been destabilizing and even invading countries who are considering doing the same.

自從弗拉基米爾-普京掌權以來，他就一直在顛覆甚至入侵那些正在考慮採取同樣行動的國家。

Iran's Islamic regime, meanwhile, has wanted to become the most powerful in the

與此同時，伊朗伊斯蘭政權一直希望成為世界上最強大的國家。

Middle East ever since it rose to power in 1979.

自 1979 年崛起以來，它一直是中東地區的 "老大"。

It used oil wealth to fund militias and amassed thousands of missiles and drones in order to influence and threaten its neighbors.

它利用石油財富資助民兵，積累了數千枚飛彈和無人機，以影響和威脅鄰國。

North Korea's first leader rose to power in the 1950s after a war split the Korean

北韓的第一位領導人於 20 世紀 50 年代在一場分裂北韓的戰爭後上臺執政。

Peninsula. And since then, he, his son and now his grandson have built a massive military and nuclear weapons arsenal that they threatened to use to conquer South

半島。從那時起，他和他的兒子以及現在的孫子建立了龐大的軍事和核武庫，揚言要用這些武器征服南方。

Korea. Finally, the Chinese Communist Party has been vowing to take over Taiwan since it rose to power in the 1940s.

韓國。最後，中國共產黨自 20 世紀 40 年代掌權以來，一直誓言要佔領檯灣。

It built itself into a superpower with vast wealth, a large military, nuclear weapons and a seat on the U.N.

它將自己打造成一個擁有鉅額財富、龐大軍隊、核武器和聯合國席位的超級大國。

Security Council. But it's expanded its ambitions to wield influence across all of

安全理事會。但它的野心已擴大到對所有國家施加影響。

Southeastern Asia. The second thing these four have in common is that the U.S.

東南亞。這四個國家的第二個共同點是美國。

has been thwarting their plans.

一直在阻撓他們的計劃。

It's been arming its allies to block these countries from expanding their influence. And they all hate it.

它一直在武裝盟友，阻止這些國家擴大影響力。而這些國家都憎恨它。

In many ways, the most powerful glue between those two countries is their shared animosity of the United States.

在許多方面，這兩個國家之間最強大的粘合劑就是他們對美國的共同敵意。

Andrea, Kendall Taylor is an expert on this new axis.

安德烈亞，肯德爾-泰勒是這個新軸心的專家。

Despite sharing an enemy, these four states weren't really all that close until the last decade or so when the U.S.

儘管同仇敵愾，但這四個州的關係其實並不密切，直到最近十多年，美國才與這四個州建立了聯繫。

began unleashing a powerful economic weapon.

開始釋放強大的經濟武器。

Now, you've probably seen bits and pieces of this story over the last couple of years. I've been following it for about a year now, and it's been made a lot easier thanks to my Ground News subscription.

在過去的幾年裡，你們可能已經看到了這個故事的點點滴滴。我已經跟蹤報道了大約一年，多虧我訂閱了《地面新聞》，這讓我的工作變得更加輕鬆。

And I'm also super proud to have them on as the sponsor of this video.

他們能成為本視頻的贊助商，我也感到非常自豪。

Ground News is a website, a browser plugin and an app that's aimed to make consuming the news more transparent.

Ground News 是一個網站、一個瀏覽器插件和一個應用程序，旨在讓新聞消費更加透明。

So they've got access to over 50,000 news articles and they have a bunch of cool, innovative tools that make understanding where that news comes from a lot easier.

是以，他們可以訪問 50,000 多篇新聞文章，並擁有一系列很酷的創新工具，讓瞭解新聞來源變得更加容易。

I'd like to quickly show you how it works.

我想快速向你展示一下它是如何工作的。

So about two weeks ago, this report came out.

大約兩週前，這份報告出爐了。

So go to Ground News. And the first thing I look at is the coverage details.

是以，請訪問地面新聞。我首先查看的是報道細節。

This is the number of news sources covering the story.

這是報道該事件的新聞來源的數量。

Then below it is called the bias distribution.

以下稱為偏差分佈。

This shows you where on the political spectrum these stories are being reported from. Below that, Ground News ranks their factuality.

這顯示了這些報道的政治傾向。下面是 Ground News 對這些新聞真實性的排名。

So how trustworthy are these sources?

那麼，這些資訊來源的可信度如何？

Finally, is this ownership tool showing you who owns the news outlets that are reporting on this? Below here, you can see all the different articles covering the story. So here's one from the Kyiv Independent.

最後，這個 "所有權 "工具是否顯示了誰擁有報道此事的新聞機構？在下面，你可以看到所有報道此事的不同文章。這裡有一篇來自《基輔獨立報》的文章。

It leans left, but has high factuality.

它偏左，但事實性很強。

All you got to do is go to ground.news slash surge party.

您只需訪問 ground.news slash surge party。

That'll get you 40 percent off their vantage plan.

這將使您的 Vantage 計劃優惠 40%。

That's what I use. All those features are going to be unlocked.

我用的就是這個。所有這些功能都將解鎖。

I think if you'd like surge party, you like the news.

我想，如果你喜歡激增派對，你就會喜歡新聞。

You'll really enjoy Ground News as well.

您也會非常喜歡《地面新聞》。

We share the same mission of making journalism more transparent.

我們的共同使命是讓新聞報道更加透明。

Thanks again to Ground News for supporting surge party yet again.

再次感謝 Ground News 對激增派對的支持。

I'll stick you back to the episode.

我會把你粘回那一集的。

In the last few decades, the U.S.

在過去的幾十年中，美國

has been increasingly placing what's called sanctions on its enemies.

越來越多地對其敵人實施所謂的制裁。

Sanctions are a tool that the United States regularly wields to push back against actions that other countries take, but that obviously fall well short of military measures. Sanctions weaken America's enemies by basically blocking trade to that country until it stops doing what the U.S.

制裁是美國經常使用的一種手段，用來反擊其他國家採取的行動，但顯然遠遠達不到軍事措施的效果。制裁基本上是通過阻止與美國的貿易往來來削弱美國的敵人，直到該國停止美國的所作所為為止。

doesn't like. Sometimes the U.S.

不喜歡。有時美國

alone refuses to trade with the country, but often gets its allies or even the whole

僅是拒絕與該國進行貿易，卻經常讓其盟國甚至整個

U.N. to also agree to stop trading with it.

聯合國也同意停止與它的貿易。

And that can prevent a country from getting things it really needs.

這可能會阻礙一個國家獲得它真正需要的東西。

To punish North Korea for its nuclear program, the U.N.

為了懲罰北韓的核計劃，聯合國

has placed sanctions that have led to severe shortages of energy, technology and food, contributing to deadly famines and crippling its economy.

制裁導致能源、技術和糧食嚴重短缺，造成了致命的饑荒，使其經濟癱瘓。

Sanctions on Iran have blocked it from selling its oil, leaving it short of cash, while also preventing it from getting the advanced weaponry it needs to match its rivals in the Middle East.

對伊朗的制裁阻止了伊朗出售石油，使其缺乏現金，同時也使其無法獲得所需的先進武器裝備，以與其在中東的競爭對手相抗衡。

Sanctions are one of the key reasons why these states began to work together.

制裁是這些國家開始合作的重要原因之一。

Since the 1980s, Iran's been buying missiles from North Korea, and in the last decade, North Korea has been buying Iranian oil.

自 20 世紀 80 年代以來，伊朗一直從北韓購買飛彈，而在過去十年中，北韓一直在購買伊朗的石油。

China has also been buying Iranian oil and trading with North Korea, which it views as a troublesome but useful ally.

中國也一直在購買伊朗石油，並與北韓進行貿易，中國認為北韓是一個麻煩但有用的盟友。

But when Russia invaded Ukraine, it took their cooperation to a whole new level.

但當俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭時，他們之間的合作達到了一個全新的高度。

Speaking news, Ukraine under attack.

新聞：烏克蘭遭受攻擊。

Ukraine woke to explosions around the capital, Kiev.

烏克蘭被首都基輔周圍的爆炸聲驚醒。

Two years since the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordered his troops to invade

自俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾-普京下令軍隊入侵莫斯科兩年以來

Ukraine. The Ukrainian losses in comparison to their population are pretty significant. Putin is finished.

烏克蘭。烏克蘭的損失與其人口相比相當可觀。普京完了。

He's doubled down on everything.

他在所有事情上都加倍了。

This guy is losing.

這傢伙要輸了。

Russia, I think, is literally running out of ammunition.

我認為，俄羅斯已經彈盡糧絕。

They're seeking some support and some ammunition.

他們正在尋求一些支持和彈藥。

Russia has used up huge amounts of ammunition, weapons and equipment in Ukraine.

俄羅斯在烏克蘭消耗了大量彈藥、武器和裝備。

And sanctions placed by the U.S.

美國的制裁

and its allies have made it difficult for it to replace them.

及其盟友使其難以取而代之。

Additionally, many Western countries have stopped buying Russia's oil, leaving it also short of cash.

此外，許多西方國家已經停止購買俄羅斯的石油，導致俄羅斯也缺乏現金。

Suddenly, Russia needs a lot of help, but very few countries are willing to give it any, except for three.

突然之間，俄羅斯需要大量幫助，但很少有國家願意提供幫助，只有三個國家除外。

And it just so happens that Iran, North Korea and China all have something it desperately needs. That's why I made these cards.

而伊朗、北韓和中國恰好都有它迫切需要的東西。這就是我製作這些卡片的原因。

Hopefully, they're an interesting way to show you what each country has to offer, because at the very heart of this new axis are transactions.

希望它們能以有趣的方式向您展示每個國家的特色，因為這個新軸心的核心是交易。

Russia convinced North Korea to begin sending it millions of rounds of ammunition and missiles. It also got Iran to send it missiles, plus thousands of drones.

俄羅斯說服北韓開始向其運送數百萬發彈藥和飛彈。俄羅斯還讓伊朗向其運送飛彈和數千架無人機。

Russia had to turn to these countries out of necessity.

出於無奈，俄羅斯不得不求助於這些國家。

It is very consequential and important what Russia is getting, but just as important is what Russia is having to give away in return.

俄羅斯得到什麼是非常重要的，但同樣重要的是俄羅斯必須付出什麼作為回報。

Russia has become Iran's largest source of foreign investment, and it's now sending Iran very advanced weaponry like fighter jets and attack helicopters.

俄羅斯已成為伊朗最大的外國投資來源，現在它還向伊朗提供非常先進的武器，如戰鬥機和攻擊直升機。

Russia is also sending more food and energy to North Korea, plus advanced technology that it can use in its weapons.

俄羅斯還向北韓輸送更多糧食和能源，以及可用於武器的先進技術。

But neither state has helped Russia as much as China has.

但這兩個國家對俄羅斯的幫助都不及中國。

It's been buying lots of Russian oil, injecting billions of dollars into

它一直在大量購買俄羅斯的石油，併為其注入數十億美元。

Russia's coffers. And it's sending Russia what's called dual-use products.

俄羅斯的國庫。它還向俄羅斯輸送所謂的軍民兩用產品。

Those are things that can be used for both commercial or military products.

這些東西既可用於商用產品，也可用於軍用產品。

So while it's not accurate to say China is sending Russia weapons, many of these dual-use products are ending up in Russian weapons.

是以，雖然說中國向俄羅斯運送武器並不準確，但許多軍民兩用產品最終都被用於俄羅斯的武器。

Like navigation equipment, jamming technology, jet fighter parts and even drone parts. In exchange, Russia has been sending China more sophisticated technology, possibly for things like submarines and missile defense systems.

比如導航設備、干擾技術、噴氣式戰鬥機部件甚至無人機部件。作為交換，俄羅斯一直在向中國輸送更先進的技術，可能用於潛艇和飛彈防禦系統等方面。

By fulfilling each other's needs, Russia, Iran and North Korea are able to survive despite being sanctioned.

通過滿足彼此的需求，俄羅斯、伊朗和北韓得以在受到制裁的情況下生存下來。

And all four are improving their ability to carve out spheres of influence.

這四家公司都在提高自己劃分勢力範圍的能力。

A win-win-win-win.

實現三贏。

Iranian drones and North Korean ammunition have helped Russia bog down

伊朗無人機和北韓彈藥讓俄羅斯陷入困境

Ukraine's counteroffenses, while Russian weapons have bolstered Iran's defenses. And its technology is believed to have helped North Korea build more advanced ICBM missiles.

而俄羅斯的武器則增強了伊朗的防禦能力。據信，俄羅斯的技術還幫助北韓製造了更先進的洲際彈道導彈。

But while Russian technology and Iranian oil does help China, it's not involved in this axis to make trades.

不過，雖然俄羅斯的技術和伊朗的石油確實對中國有幫助，但中國並沒有參與到這一軸心的交易中來。

There are certainly pragmatic, kind of tangible things that China is getting.

當然，中國也得到了一些務實的、看得見摸得著的東西。

But more than anything else, I think it is China wants to build a world that it thinks is more favorable to China.

但我認為，中國更希望建立一個它認為對中國更有利的世界。

And in that pursuit, Russia is an extremely useful partner.

在這方面，俄羅斯是一個非常有用的合作伙伴。

As China strives to become more powerful, the U.S.

在中國努力變得更加強大的同時，美國也在不斷努力。

is using its vast system of allies to contain it.

正利用其龐大的盟友體系來遏制它。

So backing these states is a way for China to distract and threaten the U.S.

是以，支持這些國家是中國轉移和威脅美國的一種方式。

in more places. And it's even using its seat on the Security Council to thwart the U.S.'s agenda.

在更多的地方。它甚至利用自己在安理會的席位來阻撓美國的議程。

It recently teamed up with Russia to block new sanctions on North Korea and block the U.S.'s call for a ceasefire in Gaza.

最近，它與俄羅斯聯手阻止對北韓實施新制裁，並阻止美國呼籲加沙停火。

Could this axis survive without China?

沒有中國，這個軸心國還能生存嗎？

I think it would just be far less impactful.

我認為這樣做的影響會小得多。

It's the resources, really, that China brings to this that makes this axis of upheaval so concerning.

實際上，正是中國帶來的資源讓這一動盪軸心如此令人擔憂。

The concern is that China could use this axis to undermine the entire U.S.- led world order, hence the axis of upheaval.

令人擔憂的是，中國可能會利用這一軸心破壞美國上司的整個世界秩序，是以被稱為 "動盪軸心"。

But when you think about what upheaval is, it really is acts designed to overturn an existing order.

但仔細想想，動亂其實就是旨在顛覆現有秩序的行為。

And I think that's precisely what these four countries are trying to do.

我認為這正是這四個國家正在努力做的事情。

They're trying to overturn the rules, the norms, the institutions that have underpinned the world that we live in today.

他們試圖推翻支撐我們今天所生活世界的規則、規範和制度。

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea feel that those rules are being used to weaken them. So by teaming up, they could begin to build a new system based on how they want to rule.

中國、俄羅斯、伊朗和北韓認為，這些規則被用來削弱它們。是以，通過聯手，他們可以開始根據自己的統治方式建立一個新的體系。

They have that idea that there is no universal definition of democracy or human rights or the idea that no outside state should have the right to interfere in the internal affairs of another state.

他們認為，民主或人權沒有普遍定義，任何外部國家都無權干涉他國內政。

Basically, code for the United States can't push democracy on human rights in other countries because that's undermining to other autocracies.

基本上，這意味著美國不能在其他國家的人權問題上推行民主，因為這會破壞其他專制國家的人權。

The risk for the U.S. is that they might convince other autocracies who agree to join their axis, perhaps even some states that are more neutral, creating a group large enough to compete with the U.S.-led order.

美國面臨的風險是，他們可能會說服其他同意加入其軸心的專制國家，甚至是一些比較中立的國家，從而形成一個足以與美國上司的秩序相抗衡的集團。

Andrea believes that competition is already beginning to spark violence.

Andrea 認為，競爭已經開始引發暴力。

We had a flare up in Armenia, Azerbaijan.

我們在亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆發生了衝突。

Venezuela has threatened to take parts of Guyana by force.

委內瑞拉威脅要用武力奪取蓋亞那的部分領土。

And certainly we have the conflict in the Middle East.

當然，我們還有中東衝突。

And I worry very much that it is in large part because we are moving towards this world where it's not just the U.S.-led order, but these two competing orders.

我非常擔心，這在很大程度上是因為我們正在走向這樣一個世界：它不僅僅是美國主導的秩序，而是這兩種相互競爭的秩序。

For now, this axis is far from being an alternative world order or even an alliance. Its leaders have been meeting each other more frequently and signing agreements, but they're not promising to defend each other, nor have they all met at the same time.

目前，這一軸心還遠未形成另一種世界秩序，甚至還不是一個聯盟。軸心國領導人之間的會晤越來越頻繁，並簽署了一些協議，但他們並沒有承諾保衛對方，也沒有同時舉行會議。

But by even offering a possible alternative to the U.S.-led system, this axis is already putting more pressure on the U.S.

但是，這個軸心國甚至為美國上司的體系提供了一個可能的替代方案，這就已經給美國施加了更大的壓力。

to back its allies like Taiwan, South Korea, Israel and most urgently,

支持其盟友，如臺灣、韓國、以色列，以及最緊迫的盟友、

Ukraine, which this axis would like to see defeated.

這個軸心希望看到烏克蘭被打敗。

All of these countries would like to see Russia win in Ukraine because then

所有這些國家都希望看到俄羅斯在烏克蘭獲勝，因為那樣的話

Russia has demonstrated to the rest of the world that might makes right, that you can change borders through the use of force and the United States power, the power of its allies can be defeated.

俄羅斯向世界其他國家表明，強權即公理，通過使用武力可以改變邊界，美國的力量及其盟友的力量是可以被打敗的。

It can be overcome.

它是可以克服的。

And that the four of these states have figured out how to do it.

而這四個州已經想出了辦法。

So why not join them?

為什麼不加入他們呢？

All right. That's our episode for this week.

好的這就是我們本週的節目。

I hope you enjoyed it.

希望你們喜歡。

We hit 500,000 subscribers last week in just over a year of search parties.

上週，我們的用戶數量達到了 50 萬，而這僅僅是搜索方一年多的時間。

So I want to thank you all who have subscribed, especially our members.

是以，我要感謝所有訂閱的用戶，尤其是我們的會員。

If you're new here, now's your chance to subscribe to Search Party.

如果您是新來的，現在就有機會訂閱 "搜索派對"。

We cover sports and geopolitics and we're publishing every two weeks throughout the fall. So I'll see you in a couple of weeks.

我們報道體育和地緣政治，整個秋季每兩週出版一期。我們幾周後見。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。