This is what Beijing wants to show the world.

這就是北京希望向世界展示的。

With each military drill, China is drawing ever closer circles around Taiwan.

每一次軍事演習，中國都在不斷拉近與臺灣的距離。

China has a clear goal to gain control over the island.

中國的目標很明確，那就是控制該島。

China will surely be reunified.

中國一定會統一。

Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

如果真的到了那一步，您是否願意捲入軍事行動，保衛臺灣？

Yes.

是的。

It's a commitment we made.

這是我們做出的承諾。

The United States is building up its military presence in the region, and is practicing how to sink Chinese ships.

美國正在加強其在該地區的軍事存在，並正在演練如何擊沉中國船隻。

We're not going to come to an agreement over Taiwan.

我們不會就臺灣問題達成協議。

Wait for the unification to be achieved, peacefully I hope, non-peacefully I dread.

等待統一的實現，我希望是和平的，我害怕是非和平的。

But why are these two superpowers so fixated on Taiwan?

但是，這兩個超級大國為何如此執著於臺灣？

What's in it for China and the U.S.?

這對中美兩國有何好處？

And how do people in Taiwan feel about it?

臺灣人民對此有何感想？

It's Taiwan's location that makes it a geopolitical flashpoint.

臺灣的地理位置使其成為地緣政治的熱點。

Taiwan has 23 million inhabitants, and its main island lies only 130 kilometers away from China's mainland.

臺灣有 2300 萬居民，主島距離中國大陸僅 130 公里。

These tiny islands right off the coast are also under Taiwanese control.

這些近海小島也在臺灣控制之下。

And Chinese military drills around the whole of Taiwan are getting bigger and more frequent.

中國在整個臺灣周圍的軍事演習規模越來越大，頻率越來越高。

In recent videos released by China's People's Liberation Army, Beijing has threatened to encircle the island.

在中國人民解放軍最近發佈的視頻中，北京威脅要包圍該島。

It sees Taiwan as part of its territory, and says it's ready to use force if necessary to get it back.

它認為臺灣是其領土的一部分，並表示如有必要，隨時準備使用武力奪回臺灣。

We'll talk more about the history and Taiwan's status later.

關於臺灣的歷史和地位，我們稍後再談。

For now, you need to know that in the late 1940s, there was a civil war in China between communists and nationalists.

現在，您需要知道，20 世紀 40 年代末，中國發生了共產黨和民族主義者之間的內戰。

The communists won and took control of mainland China.

共產黨獲勝，控制了中國大陸。

And the nationalists fled to Taiwan.

國民黨人則逃往臺灣。

That laid the groundwork for today's tensions.

這為今天的緊張局勢奠定了基礎。

The U.S. has an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan.

美國對臺灣的政策模稜兩可。

Since the late 1970s, it's recognized communist Beijing as the only legitimate government of China.

自 20 世紀 70 年代末以來，它一直承認共產黨北京政府是中國唯一合法政府。

But it has informal ties with Taiwan, and is seen as the island's protector.

但它與臺灣有著非正式的聯繫，並被視為臺灣的保護者。

OK, let's go back to the map to understand why the U.S. and China can't quit Taiwan.

好吧，讓我們回到地圖上來，瞭解為什麼美國和中國無法放棄臺灣。

In some ways, Taiwan's strategic importance is about three choke points around the island.

從某種程度上說，臺灣的戰略重要性在於環島的三個咽喉要道。

To the west, there's the Taiwan Strait.

西邊是臺灣海峽。

It's a key trade route for both Beijing and Taiwan, and also for everybody else.

對於北京和臺灣以及其他所有國家來說，這是一條重要的貿易路線。

Almost all the world's biggest container ships pass through here.

世界上最大的集裝箱船幾乎都會經過這裡。

To the north, the Miyako Strait.

北面是宮古海峽。

It runs between Taiwan and these Japanese islands.

它位於臺灣和日本列島之間。

And in the south, the Bashi Strait.

而在南部，則是巴士海峽。

It runs between Taiwan and the Philippines.

它在臺灣和菲律賓之間運行。

For China, these two straits on either side of Taiwan are key strategic gateways to the

對中國而言，臺灣兩側的這兩個海峽是通往美國的重要戰略門戶。

Pacific Ocean.

太平洋。

Taiwan is in the middle of the Chinese coastline, which is very important.

臺灣位於中國海岸線的中間，這一點非常重要。

This is Victor Gao.

我是 Victor Gao。

He's a former Chinese diplomat and vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank some say is close to the Chinese Communist Party.

他是前中國外交官，也是中國與全球化研究中心的副主席，有人說這是一個與中國共產黨關係密切的北京智庫。

Taiwan Island faces the Pacific directly.

臺灣島直面太平洋。

And if Taiwan is occupied by a foreign country, for example, it interrupts the continuity of the Chinese coastline and also prevents the Chinese access directly to the Pacific

例如，如果臺灣被外國佔領，中國海岸線的連續性就會中斷，中國也無法直接進入太平洋。

Ocean.

海洋

The U.S. says it has no troops permanently stationed in Taiwan, but the island plays an important role in U.S. strategy.

美國稱其沒有在臺灣長期駐軍，但臺灣在美國戰略中扮演著重要角色。

To understand why, let's look at the military bases in the region.

要了解原因，讓我們來看看該地區的軍事基地。

Here are some of China's main naval bases close to its coast.

以下是中國靠近海岸的一些主要海軍基地。

And the U.S. has some of its key bases in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.

美國在韓國、日本和菲律賓都有一些重要基地。

If you connect the dots, you'll see the U.S. bases form a chain.

如果把這些點連起來，就會發現美國基地形成了一個鏈條。

Taiwan sits at the heart of what we call in the United States, the first island chain.

臺灣位於美國所謂的第一島鏈的中心。

David Sax is an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in New York City.

大衛-薩克斯（David Sax）是紐約市智庫外交關係委員會的專家。

In the past, he worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, which serves as the de facto U.S.

過去，他曾在美國在臺協會工作，該協會是事實上的美國在臺協會。

embassy on the island.

駐該島大使館。

If you look at the first island chain, these are all formal treaty allies of the United

如果你看看第一島鏈，這些都是美國的正式條約盟國。

States or close partners in the case of Taiwan.

在臺灣，則是密切的合作伙伴。

And with that the way it is, the United States can project power close to China's shores, protect its allies and its interests.

在這種情況下，美國可以在中國海岸附近投射力量，保護其盟友和利益。

Conversely, it's very difficult for the Chinese military to project power outside of the first island chain and threaten the United States physically or our interests in the Indo-Pacific.

相反，中國軍隊很難將力量投射到第一島鏈之外，對美國或我們在印度洋-太平洋地區的利益構成實際威脅。

To strengthen this island chain, the U.S. is expanding military cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, which are also wary of what they see as China's expansionist goals.

為了加強這一島鏈，美國正在擴大與日本和菲律賓的軍事合作，這兩個國家也對中國的擴張主義目標保持警惕。

For example, just last year the U.S. gained access to military bases in the north of the

例如，就在去年，美國獲得了進入緬甸北部軍事基地的權利。

Philippines, right next to the Bashi Strait, one of those Chinese gateways to the Pacific

菲律賓，毗鄰中國通往太平洋的門戶之一--巴士海峽

Ocean we mentioned.

我們提到的海洋

Here you can see American and Philippine troops conducting exercises in the waters nearby earlier this year.

在這裡，您可以看到美國和菲律賓軍隊今年早些時候在附近水域進行演習。

They even sank an old Chinese-built ship that the Philippine Navy used in the past, a clear message to Beijing.

他們甚至擊沉了菲律賓海軍過去使用的一艘中國建造的舊船，這是向北京發出的一個明確資訊。

And obviously China is not happy about the U.S. island chain strategy.

顯然，中國對美國的島鏈戰略並不滿意。

Come on, we are not living in the 19th century.

拜託，我們又不是生活在 19 世紀。

We are not living in the imperialist country century.

我們不是生活在帝國主義國家的世紀。

Using this outmoded way of thinking, as if you can set up a chain to block, for example,

使用這種過時的思維方式，就好像你可以建立一個鏈條來進行封鎖一樣、

China from accessing the Pacific Ocean, it's ludicrous.

不讓中國進入太平洋，這太可笑了。

Beijing is rapidly modernizing its navy, in part to be able to break through the chain of U.S. allies.

北京正在迅速實現海軍現代化，部分原因是為了突破美國的盟友鏈。

For example, with the Fujian aircraft carrier.

例如，福建號航空母艦。

Here it is on sea trials earlier this year.

這是今年早些時候的海試照片。

It's China's third aircraft carrier and the biggest ship in the Chinese navy.

這是中國的第三艘航空母艦，也是中國海軍最大的艦艇。

The number one objective here is to keep the United States out of the region during a conflict.

這裡的首要目標是在衝突期間不讓美國介入該地區。

So what we call anti-access area denial.

這就是我們所說的 "反進入區域封鎖"。

Prevent the United States from being able to defend our treaty allies and partners.

阻止美國保衛我們的盟國和夥伴。

So to sum up, Taiwan's location makes it essential to both sides as they try to gain the upper hand in the region.

總之，臺灣的地理位置使其對雙方都至關重要，因為他們都試圖在該地區佔據上風。

But the rivalry is also about money.

但競爭也與金錢有關。

Big money.

大錢

Economically, the small island has an outsize importance for both China and the U.S., even though neither officially recognize Taiwan as a country.

在經濟上，儘管中國和美國都不正式承認臺灣是一個國家，但這個小島對中國和美國來說都非常重要。

Both China and the U.S. have significant trade links with Taiwan.

中國和美國都與臺灣有著重要的貿易聯繫。

And much of that business comes from just one company.

而其中大部分業務僅來自一家公司。

TSMC.

臺積電。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

臺灣半導體制造公司。

It produces microchips.

它生產微型芯片。

Taiwan makes 90 percent of the most advanced ones in the world.

世界上最先進的電子設備 90% 都是臺灣製造的。

Both the U.S. and China are dependent on them.

美國和中國都依賴於它們。

And so is everybody else.

其他人也一樣。

There's a good chance TSMC's semiconductors are in the device that you're using to watch this video right now.

您現在用來觀看視頻的設備中很可能就有臺積電的半導體。

They're in new cars, fridges, and fighter jets.

新車、冰箱和戰鬥機中都有它們的身影。

Everywhere.

無處不在

They're needed to develop new AI models.

開發新的人工智能模型需要它們。

And U.S. leaders worry that losing Taiwan to China could permanently shift economic tides against them.

美國領導人擔心，如果臺灣落入中國之手，經濟形勢可能會永久性地發生不利於他們的變化。

We don't assume that a region under Chinese hegemony would be open to U.S. trade and investment.

我們不認為中國霸權下的地區會對美國的貿易和投資開放。

I think that China would reorder the region.

我認為中國會重新安排該地區的秩序。

They want the United States to basically supply them with raw materials that are turned into manufactured goods in China and then sold all over the world.

他們希望美國基本上為他們提供原材料，在中國加工成製成品，然後銷往世界各地。

There isn't really a role for the United States or other industrialized countries in that.

在這方面，美國或其他工業化國家並沒有真正發揮作用。

The Chinese economy is already larger than that of the United States if you use purchasing power parity.

如果按購買力平價計算，中國的經濟規模已經超過美國。

China produced more than 30 million cars in 2030.

2030 年，中國的汽車產量將超過 3000 萬輛。

The Americans probably produced less than half of that.

美國人的產量可能還不到一半。

So why should anyone believe they can have some benefit of picking a fight with China?

那麼，為什麼有人會相信他們可以從與中國的鬥爭中獲得一些好處呢？

No, there is no benefit.

不，沒有任何好處。

China does not look at Taiwan from an economic or commercial perspective.

中國不從經濟或商業角度看待臺灣。

So why is Taiwan so important to Beijing then?

那麼，為什麼臺灣對北京如此重要？

To understand, let's dive back into history.

要了解這一點，讓我們回顧一下歷史。

China lost control over Taiwan during what it calls the century of humiliation.

中國在其所謂的屈辱世紀中失去了對臺灣的控制。

These caricatures of China being carved up by various foreign powers might explain why.

這些關於中國被各種外國勢力瓜分的漫畫或許可以解釋其中的原因。

From the mid-19th until the mid-20th century, China was plagued by invasions and internal disputes.

從 19 世紀中葉到 20 世紀中葉，中國一直飽受侵略和內部紛爭的困擾。

This is important because that notion of humiliation still plays a big role in Chinese state ideology even today.

這一點很重要，因為即使在今天，屈辱的觀念在中國的國家意識形態中仍然發揮著重要作用。

In 1895, Japan took Taiwan from China and made it a colony.

1895 年，日本從中國奪走臺灣，使其成為殖民地。

After World War II, the Allies forced Japan to give it back.

二戰結束後，盟軍迫使日本歸還。

But at the time, China was in the middle of a civil war.

但當時，中國正處於內戰之中。

The government of the Republic of China, or ROC, was led by nationalists under Chiang

中華民國政府由蔣介石上司的民族主義者上司。

Kai-shek.

介石

Mao Zedong led communist forces against them.

毛澤東率領共產黨軍隊與他們作戰。

In 1949, the victorious communists marched into Beijing and established the People's

1949 年，勝利的共產黨人進軍北京，建立了人民共和國。

Republic of China on the mainland.

中華民國在大陸。

The defeated government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.

戰敗的中華民國政府逃往臺灣。

That's why there are two governments that call themselves China.

這就是為什麼有兩個政府自稱為中國。

One on the mainland, the People's Republic of China, or PRC, and on Taiwan, the Republic of China, or ROC.

一個在大陸，即中華人民共和國（PRC），另一個在臺灣，即中華民國（ROC）。

The PRC government in Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and says there's only one China, even though they've never actually been in charge in Taiwan.

北京的中華人民共和國政府將臺灣視為一個分裂的省份，並聲稱只有一箇中國，儘管他們從未真正掌管過臺灣。

Most of the world accepts this one-China policy, including the U.S.

包括美國在內的世界上大多數國家都接受一箇中國的政策。

They don't recognize Taiwan as an independent country.

他們不承認臺灣是一個獨立的國家。

Wait, so why is the U.S. supporting Taiwan then?

等等，那美國為什麼要支持臺灣？

There's also a history to that.

這也是有歷史淵源的。

After the civil war, the U.S. initially saw the nationalist government in Taiwan as the only real China, rejecting the communist government on the mainland.

內戰結束後，美國最初將臺灣的國民政府視為唯一真正的中國，拒絕接受大陸的共產黨政府。

U.S. soldiers were even stationed in Taiwan under a common defense pact.

美國士兵甚至根據共同防禦條約駐紮在臺灣。

The change came in the 1970s.

這種變化出現在 20 世紀 70 年代。

The U.S. sought closer relations with Beijing.

美國尋求與北京建立更密切的關係。

That meant closing the U.S. embassy in Taiwan and pulling out U.S. troops.

這意味著關閉美國駐臺灣大使館並撤出美軍。

Still, informal ties persisted, like that de facto embassy.

不過，非正式的聯繫依然存在，比如那個事實上的大使館。

And the U.S. still guarantees to sell Taiwan weapons.

美國仍然保證向臺灣出售武器。

But they have a deliberately ambiguous policy on whether they would defend Taiwan.

但在是否保衛臺灣的問題上，他們的政策故意含糊其辭。

It's meant to prevent China from invading, and Taiwan from declaring independence.

這是為了防止中國入侵和臺灣宣佈獨立。

But that strange limbo has been the status quo in Taiwan for decades.

但幾十年來，臺灣一直處於這種奇怪的僵局之中。

And it's created realities on the ground.

這在當地造成了現實。

Taiwan developed from a nationalist authoritarian regime into one of the strongest democracies in the region.

臺灣從一個民族主義專制政權發展成為該地區最強大的民主國家之一。

There are elections, a free press, and civil liberties.

這裡有選舉、新聞自由和公民自由。

Taiwan was first in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage.

臺灣是亞洲第一個將同性婚姻合法化的國家。

This year, a progressive party was re-elected for a third term, vowing to maintain that tense status quo.

今年，一個進步政黨第三次連任，誓言維持這種緊張的現狀。

DW's Taiwan correspondent Yu-Chen Li can give us a sense of things on the ground.

DW 駐臺灣記者李雨辰將為我們介紹當地的情況。

Here in Taiwan, the atmosphere is very different from you might read in the headlines.

在臺灣，氣氛與您在頭條新聞上看到的截然不同。

The tension has become part of daily life.

緊張已成為日常生活的一部分。

One key reason is that people in Taiwan have been living under the threat of the Chinese

一個重要原因是，臺灣人民一直生活在中國的威脅之下。

Communist Party for many decades.

幾十年來，他一直是共產黨員。

The majority of the Taiwanese prefer to maintain their status quo with China.

大多數臺灣人希望與中國保持現狀。

But how to do so is a rather polarized debate.

但如何做到這一點，爭論相當激烈。

If China wants to bully us, at least we still have the U.S. and Japan.

如果中國想欺負我們，至少我們還有美國和日本。

They're our friends.

他們是我們的朋友。

I've always been skeptical of America.

我一直對美國持懷疑態度。

But we have no choice.

但我們別無選擇。

If we can't get stronger, have enough forces.

如果我們不能變得更強，那就擁有足夠的力量。

It's tricky.

這很棘手。

We should have a friendly relationship with both of them.

我們應該與這兩個國家保持友好關係。

It's always been like this.

一直都是這樣

Ever since the founding of the country, we've been caught up in this drama.

自建國以來，我們一直被捲入這場鬧劇。

But one thing is clear for many Taiwanese, Taiwan's voice is usually drowned out.

但對許多臺灣人來說，有一點很清楚，臺灣的聲音通常被淹沒。

Amid a U.S.-China rivalry, many feel that Taiwan is only a pawn in the game.

在中美對抗中，許多人認為臺灣只是遊戲中的一顆棋子。

And no matter what comes next, the island should have the right and autonomy to decide its own fate.

無論接下來會發生什麼，該島都應有權自主決定自己的命運。

But there's one more factor that stands in the way of that.

但還有一個因素阻礙了這一目標的實現。

Taiwan represents something for both superpowers.

臺灣對兩個超級大國來說都有意義。

Taiwan has embraced the U.S. worldview, which promotes democracy and capitalism.

臺灣接受了美國倡導民主和資本主義的世界觀。

China is a one-party system and a socialist market economy.

中國是一黨制國家，實行社會主義市場經濟。

And a major Chinese Communist Party narrative centers on Taiwan.

而中國共產黨的一個重要論述就是以臺灣為中心。

Remember the century of humiliation we mentioned when China lost Taiwan?

還記得我們提到的中國失去臺灣時的百年屈辱嗎？

Well Chinese President Xi Jinping sees bringing Taiwan back into the fold as an important step in overcoming that humiliation.

中國國家主席習近平認為，讓臺灣迴歸是克服這一屈辱的重要一步。

This is part of the so-called national rejuvenation, a revival of the Chinese nation as a great power.

這是所謂民族復興的一部分，是中華民族作為一個大國的復興。

But with Xi Jinping, I think you did see some impatience.

但在習近平身上，我認為你確實看到了一些不耐煩。

Xi Jinping has clearly put himself forward as a leader of, you know, world historic importance.

習近平已明確表示自己是一位具有世界歷史意義的領導人。

He views himself in a very similar way, I think, to Vladimir Putin, that he's just not a run-of-the-mill leader.

我認為，他對自己的看法與弗拉基米爾-普京非常相似，他不是一個普通的領導人。

He's transformative.

他是變革者。

No one, no country, no single human being will be able to block the peaceful reunification of China or the non-peaceful reunification of China.

沒有任何人、任何國家、任何人能夠阻擋中國的和平統一，也沒有任何人、任何國家、任何人能夠阻擋中國的非和平統一。

So we should all call on the United States, don't play with fire.

是以，我們都應該呼籲美國，不要玩火。

But for the U.S., supporting Taiwan also means keeping up key alliances in the region and promoting democracy.

但對美國來說，支持臺灣也意味著維持該地區的關鍵聯盟和促進民主。

If China were to invade and annex Taiwan, we would see that democracy extinguished and it could send chilling effects to democracies around the world.

如果中國入侵併吞併臺灣，我們將看到民主被消滅，這可能會給全世界的民主國家帶來寒蟬效應。

You would have deep questions being asked in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines on whether they can rely on the United States for their security.

在韓國、日本和菲律賓，人們會對他們的安全能否依賴美國提出深刻的疑問。

Because of where Taiwan is and what it represents, neither China nor the U.S. are able to back down.

由於臺灣所處的位置及其所代表的意義，中國和美國都無法退讓。

And the rest of us are stuck watching the superpower rivalry play out.

而我們剩下的人只能眼睜睜地看著超級大國的競爭上演。